Clinton Is Winning The States That Look Like The Democratic Party

[geek tragedy]

Last edited Fri Apr 15, 2016, 08:36 PM - Edit history (1)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/

In addition to being important to the Democratic Party’s electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse. They’re diverse ideologically — Miami and Austin aren’t exactly “the conservative part of the country” — and they’re diverse racially. They contain not only a substantial number of African-Americans but also Hispanics and, increasingly, Asian-American voters.

In fact, these states are among the most demographically representative of the diverse Obama coalition that Clinton or Sanders will have to rely on in November.

Although it will be a couple of decades before the electorate as a whole is majority-minority, the Democratic vote is already getting there. In 2012, only 55 percent of President Obama’s voters were white, according to the national exit poll. Our demographic projections of this November’s electorate, which account for population growth since 2012, calculate that the white share of the Democratic vote will tick down another percentage point, to 54 percent. The rest of the Democratic vote will be black (24 percent), Hispanic (15 percent), or belong to Asian or other races (7 percent), according to our projections

...
The most representative state by this measure is New Jersey. We expect its primary electorate to be about 57 percent white, 26 percent black, 11 percent Hispanic and 6 percent Asian or other, quite close to the national Democratic electorate. New Jersey won’t vote until June 7, although Clinton was well ahead when the last poll was released there in February.

After New Jersey comes Illinois, which Clinton won narrowly — and then Florida, where Clinton won going away. Then there’s New York, which votes Tuesday, and where Clinton is 15 percentage points ahead in our polling average. Virginia, another Southern state, ranks as the next most representative; Clinton won it easily. Then there’s Nevada, another Clinton state, before we go back to the South to North Carolina, also won by Clinton. The next group of four states (Maryland, Tennessee, Arkansas and Michigan) are roughly tied and include some further representation for the South, along with, finally, one state (Michigan) that Sanders won.

In other words, Clinton has won or is favored to win almost every state where the turnout demographics strongly resemble those of Democrats as a whole. This shouldn’t be surprising — Clinton is winning nationally by about 14 percentage points in the popular vote. So if you’re in a state that’s well-representative of Democrats’ national demographics, you might expect her to win it by a solid margin too.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

1. who can win against any of the republicans in the swing states

that is all that matters if you want to keep a republican out of our house

[IamMab]

2. But there was a BIRD, GT. A BIRD! Don't you get it??? nt

[geek tragedy]

3. And he has a picture of the pope on his website.

What could be more American?

[Jefferson23]

4. Your candidate courted the Pope for the Clinton Foundation...she would have had that photo

op....ya know, if only he had said yes. Sooo American.

[geek tragedy]

7. it's inappropriate to try to involve the Pope in our elections

Disrespectful to both church and state.

[Jefferson23]

8. I agree, technically speaking..I said as much when he was here before our congress.

I know Bernie disagrees with me, as he was very pleased about the popes message
on climate change and greed.

Yet I have my doubts you'd be expressing those same concerns had Clinton
received a yes from the pope she and Bill were hoping for.

[geek tragedy]

9. I would. Remember my reaction to Clinton's

AIPAC speech? I believe I compared her to #43

[Jefferson23]

10. Fair enough, bud.

[IamMab]

5. That has to be one of the most ratf***iest moves I've seen yet this campaign. Stealing the Pope?

That's more than any other socialist in history has managed to get their hands on at someone else's expense, that's for sure.

[SidDithers]

17. The Pope called him Brother...

It's twoo! It's twoo!

Sid

[bvar22]

6. Really?

Do you really believe that Hillary will win the Southern States (her "firewall&quot in the General Election?
She is going to win Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina?...
the ones YOU say "look like" the Democratic Party???!!!!

[mythology]

16. Is Sanders going to win

Oklahoma, Nebraska, Alaska, or Idaho?

But yes the primaries in Alabama, Mississippi etc look a lot more like the larger Democratic party than any of the red states won by Sanders.

Laugh all you want, but you didn't actually do anything to dispute the point.

[Gothmog]

11. Nate is correct in his analysis

[frustrated_lefty]

12. Don't see it.

Looks more like the confederacy to me.

[geek tragedy]

13. There is much you do not comprehend nt

[Fawke Em]

14. Looking in the mirror again, I see.

[geek tragedy]

15. Sorry, your dog whistle won't hunt anymore.

PS: referring to black voters in the south as the confederacy is a tone deaf white person thing

[frustrated_lefty]

27. Well....

I spent the first 25-ish years of my life in New Orleans with stints in Tuscaloosa, AL and Chapel Hill, NC, another 12-ish years up and down the west cost, and the past 10 years in Philly, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh. I can tell you Birmingham is NOTHING like Cambridge. Chapel Hill is nothing like Philly, and New Orleans is different but strangely similar to San Francisco.

I know the characteristics I associate with the confederate states. The early states that Hillary won fit that description to a letter. Of course, this NY win proves me wrong or at least off-base.

I can live with being off-base and try to learn from it. Stating that Clinton wins all of the states that look like America, though, is a stretch and parochial.

[uponit7771]

19. Yeah, states with mostly black progressive voters are "confederate" sounds like dog whistles

[uponit7771]

18. yeap

[Number23]

20. I K&R'd the other one and happy to K&R this one too

Every single solitary analysis -- especially international ones -- have talked about his inability to convince Democratic voters.

People keep saying he's having trouble with black voters, Hispanic voters, gay voters, women etc. when the real truth is that he is having trouble with most segments of the Dem base.

[sadoldgirl]

21. Oh, I did not know that she won

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Washington.

I must have been asleep, I guess.

[geek tragedy]

22. You must not have read any of the article or excerpt

[Recursion]

25. She did, and they don't demographically look like the Democratic party as a whole

Which was the article's point.

That said, you don't necessarily need to win the entire coalition over, if the parts you do win over vote enough.

[Cha]

23. That makes perfect sense!

[DisgustipatedinCA]

24. Payday loans? Arresting medical marijuana patients? Selling out to those who fucked us?

Which states look like that?

[pansypoo53219]

26. I DO NOT CARE. ALL that matters to me is a LANDSLIDE + keep on the path to kill

reaganism & tinkle down.