Ryan not in swing states = election is over

[Firebirds01]

I was watching Maddow and she noted that Ryan is holding a series of fundraisers in states like Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and so forth in the next two weeks before the election. Now, remember a republican gave advice that to win Romney needs to run a campaign like he is running for county sheriff (get out and meet everybody). However his Tea Party champion running mate is nowhere to be found. It is clear that the Republican party is conceding the election and telling Ryan not to muddy himself with this campaign but to silently and diplomatically break ties and build his brand. Why else would Ryan not be in one of the 4 or 5 swing states? Seriously, is there a reason im missing why this view is wrong?

[DrToast]

1. Kind of strange

Although Romney is much more important to have at events than Ryan.

What did Rachel say?

[ChiTownChavista]

49. He's the veep candidate.

his whole purpose on the ticket is to suck money from the short bus white trash base.

and that is what he's doing. nothing to see here, move along.

at this point it's Obama vs mittens.

[CreekDog]

73. Joe Biden practically moved to Ohio in 2008

remember.

[flamingdem]

2. Seems like it's all about avoiding gaffes

That was the take of some pundit today

[DrToast]

14. He can hold events where everything is controlled

It's not like he has to do interviews the last two weeks. He can still campaign.

The only thing I can think is that they don't see that much benefit from him having his own campaign events.

[Maximumnegro]

15. No. You don't go to red states if you

are running for PRESIDENT. You don't have your best surrogate off in Georgia when you need CO, IA, OH, NV, FL, NC... That does NOT make sense under ANY circumstance. All they have to do to avoid gaffes is simply not take any questions, just do rallies. So there has to be a VERY good reason Ryan is MIA. I mean that's the VP for frick's sake.

[DrToast]

16. Agree. I find it rather strange

[flamingdem]

21. This from the comment:

Maybe they want to keep Ryan out of sight vis a vis the rape thing. After all he has the same positions as Mourdock and Akins. Being reminded that the #2 on the the ticket has these views will NOT be a positive force among undecided women voters.

Plus, they need money for gotv and no one wants to give them much

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

58. For Obama in 2008

He had Biden in on swing state, while he was campaigning in another.

The VP candidate typically is an surrogate for the presidential candidate, allowing him to cover more ground. He also has the job of nasty attack dog, saying things that would make the presidential candidate look "less presidential."

What Ryan is doing doesn't make sense, for the Romnesia campaign.

[Cosmocat]

69. The bottom line is the bottom line - they HAVE to win Ohio, ect.

People can try to find reasons, but they have to win the core swing states.

As someone else noted, four years ago they didn't have Biden gallivanting around Massachusetts.

They HAVE to win Ohio, they HAVE to win the swing states.

He is your rook, you use him where you HAVE to win.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

24. I wonder if he's trying to salvage some down ticket races?

When San Antonio gets a visit from Bill Clinton to fire up the Dems down ticket. Republicans are losing steam.

Maybe they're just in such bad shape in a few races they need to motivate voters?

[flamingdem]

33. They must be feeling

real bad

Let's hope that's it - even more I'm hoping for surprises in those downticket races .. ahh

[Lone_Star_Dem]

57. You and I both are hoping for surprises down ticket!

Let it be so!

[gravity]

36. Gaffes are not stopping Joe Biden

Maybe they are afraid that Ryan will reveal what he really believes in.

[flamingdem]

40. Joe's gaffes aren't really gaffes - but Ryan staged that phoney photo-op for instance

and if questioned about rape he would probably stick his foot in it

[tarheelsunc]

3. Perhaps he is out doing fundraisers to cover their losses

[Laura PourMeADrink]

48. right...with Wrongney - ALWAYS follow the money

[Firebirds01]

4. GOTV

Of course, go GOTV. Make sure these fools are buried under a torrent of votes.

[justiceischeap]

5. I think this is because of Mourdock's comments

Ryan is tied not only to Akin but now to Mourdock because of Akin. I think getting him out of the public eye keeps votes from slipping away and sending him to these fundraisers, he can assure the base that RMoney will do whatever he can to overturn Roe v. Wade. Hopefully someone has a video camera at one of these events.

[Maximumnegro]

8. Not sure I buy that. Romney has backed Mourdock

and Ryan is better than responding than Romney is by a country mile. Your statement makes sense from a strictly progressive perspective but doesn't make sense in terms of how they've operated thus far. Fact is if you are running for Pres, your running mate HAS to be in the crucial states as well.

So either they know they've lost or they know they've won.

[grantcart]

64. a Democratic operative has the same opinion. If he is asked and answers on record some idiotic

statement about abortion could swing lots of down ticket races

[justiceischeap]

70. And lets face it, Ryan recently made some questionable rape comments on video recently

that it's just another method of conception. If the VP running mate were to say something to that effect on TV before the election, especially when there's a bright spotlight on the story right now, wow, I'd love to see that, actually.

[Maximumnegro]

6. They need money, but yes the election IS over

for all intents and purposes. The math is undeniable. The O campaign has called Romney's bluff. Ryan is shoring up his rep.

[DonViejo]

19. Exactly, Maximumnegro.

Yes, he's raising money and speaking for the campaign but, he's building his reputation with the base. Ryan 2016?

[imanamerican63]

7. Or Ryan lining up for 2016???

[longship]

28. Well, after Jan. he'll have lots of time on his hands.

Nota bene: Ryan isn't visiting/defending his district. I have a sneaking suspicion that he's going to lose his seat in Congress.

[BlueToTheBone]

9. He's in sucking up money from the nasty richies in

the little enclaves of hate. Arkansas has Walmart, Tyson, JB Hunt, Cargill and some hidden rich KKKers. We are so lost, our state party couldn't get Obama gear at all. No yard signs, no bumper stickers, nada. Only consolation is that there are very few Rmoney signs either.

[MSMITH33156]

10. They have plenty of money

plus, it makes no sense to host a bunch of fundraisers this late in the election.

[Maximumnegro]

18. Not sure about that.

I posted an article earlier about Romney pressing donors hard for money. And Remember his campaign lied about cash in September. The RNC has cash, Romney may not. There is so much bullsh*t to Romney there is just no knowing what's true and what's not.

[smorkingapple]

11. Check this article and read comments for more theories

http://blogs.ajc.com/jamie-dupree-washington-insider/2012/10/25/why-is-paul-ryan-in-states-that-dont-matter/

[courseofhistory]

12. It is odd, but money is money and

maybe they figure with more money and ads they may be able to get their lies out better!

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. The well's running dry at Romney-Ryan

They threw their wad at the swing states and came up goose-eggs.

They're out of gas.

[Maximumnegro]

20. My thought as well.

[flamingdem]

22. ^this

plus not wanting anymore gaffes

[Darkhawk32]

44. The last two weeks were their Battle of the Bulge.

Tanks ran out of gas.

[AlinPA]

51. The SuperPACs have a lot of money to give for Romney's campaign, but they seem to have

backed off for now. SuperPACs could be saving it for a big push next week with GOTV and paper ads, mailers, and radio ads but it is getting late in the game.

[smorkingapple]

17. Some theories Ive seen

-his brand is shit so they wanna keep him away from the limelight these last two weeks especially after Murdoch fiasco
-he's breaking away/going rogue to drum up support for himself
-they need money for a late ad push in some states they think are still in play like MI, PA, etc to help drive media narrative of Romney surging
- they are going broke
- they want money for down ballot races, maybe they are starting to fear Obama coattails

the fact he has no media covering his events seems to lend itself to the romney in trouble narrative

[AlinPA]

52. SuperPACs have the $$ for the campaign, so they aren't broke.

[emulatorloo]

55. SuperPacs can't pay for Romney's staff and campaign expenses though

At least that is how I understand it.

[BeyondGeography]

23. Hedging on EV, making a play for popular vote

Just a guess...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

53. interesting. surely they can't do anything to change a PV win to supercede

a EV win.

Why bother? Just so they can rub it in our face for the next 4 yrs. Poor Obama

[BeyondGeography]

56. Poor everyone

Haters mess it up for themselves, and us.

[Change has come]

65. That's all they have. n/t

[rachel1]

25. Ryan knows there's no chance of winning so he instead

campaigns in safe red states where he can preach to the crowd just to give himself some false assurance that Mitt could win.

[barnabas63]

26. Article from Huntsville, Alabama

http://www.wsfa.com/story/19919443/paul-ryan-to-visit-huntsville


HUNTSVILLE, AL (WAFF) -

Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan will make a stop in Huntsville Friday morning.

A GOP fundraiser will be held at the Von Braun Center.

Huntsville is the only city he will visit in Alabama.

It is not uncommon for political candidates to choose the Rocket City. President Barack Obama, President Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, and Ted Kennedy have all made the trip.

WAFF Political Analyst Dr. Waymon Burke said that is because candidates know they can find strong support within the aerospace industry and the military.

[hrmjustin]

27. Maybe he is not liked enough to put him in the swing states.

[DCBob]

29. Odd strategy.

I have no idea why they would do that.. unless they are truly givning up.

[Capt.Rocky300]

30. As I undertand it......

Ryan is also is running to retain his congressional seat simultaneously with the V.P. slot. Could be he focusing his efforts on that since he knows he won't be the V.P.? Has he made any effort so far to campaign for his old seat or is he just wishing and hoping? I haven't followed that race but I did send Rob Zerban a few bucks.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

60. If he's worried about his house seat, he'd be in Wisconsin.

NT

[Tutonic]

31. Big donors have maxed and therefore the money being

collected for October is primarily going to RNC to spend on downballot seats. In other words, Romney was not a careful steward of his money and now is forced to send out boy wonder to do his bidding. So where are you gonna go? Alabama, Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, etc. where the "po" folk will scrape together a few "hunred dolluhs" to see a "great man:" elected. Now lets not forgot how poorly he managed funds from the Republican runoff prior to this election. If this fool cannot manage either the runoff or a national campaign effectively, how the hell is he gonna manage this Country? Pitiful.

[AlinPA]

54. Where are the GOP SuperPACs?

[EmeraldCityGrl]

32. All of the above plus he infuriates women voters.

[Third Doctor]

34. I think he was just trying to raise money in friendly territory.

Plus he is trying to dodge the Mourdock mess.

[Blaukraut]

35. They might be trying to run up the popular vote margin so if..

there is an EV/PV split, they can contest the election. Didn't Dubya have this contingency plan up his sleeve back in 2000, just in case he had won the PV and lost the EV?

[DCBob]

37. interesting. you may be right.

ugh.

[ProSense]

38. Exactly! Wouldn't it

be interesting if Mitt isn't leading as big in the South as the polls are claiming?

[Blaukraut]

43. Red State Obama Derangement Syndrome is stronger than Blue State Pro Obama sentiment

So we're going to see huge Romney margins out of the South and other deep red states. I also believe that Romney is prepared to fight the election outcome if he wins the popular vote. He has prepared all his life to become president and he won't give up that easily.

[LisaL]

45. How could he possibly fight loss in the electoral college?

Our elections have always gone by the electoral college.
That determines strategy.
Obama concentrated on swing states for a reason.

[Blaukraut]

47. Here's how Dubya planned on fighting it

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2000-11-01/news/18145743_1_electoral-votes-popular-vote-bush-aide

So what if Gore wins such crucial battleground states as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania and thus captures the magic 270 electoral votes while Bush wins the overall nationwide popular vote?

"The one thing we don't do is roll over," says a Bush aide. "We fight."

How? The core of the emerging Bush strategy assumes a popular uprising, stoked by the Bushies themselves, of course.

In league with the campaign - which is preparing talking points about the Electoral College's essential unfairness - a massive talk-radio operation would be encouraged. "We'd have ads, too," says a Bush aide, "and I think you can count on the media to fuel the thing big-time. Even papers that supported Gore might turn against him because the will of the people will have been thwarted."

Local business leaders will be urged to lobby their customers, the clergy will be asked to speak up for the popular will and Team Bush will enlist as many Democrats as possible to scream as loud as they can. "You think 'Democrats for Democracy' would be a catchy term for them?" asks a Bush adviser.

The universe of people who would be targeted by this insurrection is small - the 538 currently anonymous folks called electors, people chosen by the campaigns and their state party organizations as a reward for their service over the years.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

63. That wouldn't work

would it? There's no way that the electors would roll over on American democracy because of a bunch of loud but relatively small number of teabaggers? Would they? The Constitution would have to be changed to switch our entire electoral system but, frankly, complaints about the EV system are almost always made by the losers and near national unanimity would have to occur before anything would be changed in the Constitution, so, no, I don't think that this is going to happen. The teabaggers and Fox News pundits can talk until they're blue in the face but as long as President Obama wins 270 EVs fair and square, there ain't nothing that they can do about. They want to launch a campaign afterwards to change our electoral system to a popular one, they're free, of course, to do so. Of course, like Lindsey Graham once famously said, "We're running out of angry white men," so whatever their PV count may be on November 6, 2012, it may not be quite the same in 2016, or 2020, or beyond, so they're probably screwed demographically in the long-term anyway.

[ProSense]

72. I agree, but

consider how Mitt did in the South during the Republican primaries.

Gingrich won ...

Georgia 47 to 26
South Carolina 40 to 28


Rick Santorum won...

Missouri 55 to 25
Oklahoma 34 to 28
Tenessee 37 to 28
Kansas 51 to 21
Alabama 35 to 29
Missippi 33 to 31
Louisiana 49 to 27

[NewJeffCT]

75. Isn't Romney way out in front in the South

but, losing in every other region of the country?

[LisaL]

39. They might be hiding him.

I don't think he is really popular in swing states.

[aletier_v]

41. Maybe appearances by Ryan drive away votes

and they're minimizing the damage where it won't matter.

[yellowcanine]

42. Maybe doing fundraisers in key congressional districts?

[craigmatic]

46. It does seem odd that they're still trying to raise money this late in the cycle instead of

doing events and holding rallies.

[Jennicut]

50. Is Romney's campaign broke?

There is no way Ryan should be doing fundraisers (!) at this late in the game. Another ad blitz is kind of pointless as it won't move the numbers in the way they need. Ads take time to do that and they usually need to be early to make a huge impact, like the ones on Bain and Romney by Dems at the beginning of the election.
I think Ryan is out there because he is too extreme for moderate Mitt's makeover or Ryan is protecting himself by staying in the background away from Mittens so he can run in 2016 should R an R hopefully lose in 2012.
If Ryan was my VP pic he would be like Biden and in every swing state possible. You don't hide your other major public face of the campaign.

[NewJeffCT]

74. If money doesn't make a difference

why do I get dozens of fundraising emails from Democrats every day (even yesterday) saying that it's not too late to donate more, more, more money.

However, there is a difference between a staffer writing an email to a donor list on behalf of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid or Sherrod Brown, than Ryan actually going to a fundraiser.

[mzteaze]

59. Maybe

Maybe Ryan is fundraising to cover the costs associated with the loan they took out back in August.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

62. Ryan caught diverting money from his house campaign to presidential race

Details in this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251177827

[november3rd]

66. Me, Too

I'm throwing my pasta at the wall on this one, and say it's the Galatians 1 problem: If any one should come to you with another gospel than the one you received, may he be accursed!"

In other words, the Christians in the red states don't feel--after much prayerful soul searching--like voting for a Mormon for president after all.

Eddy to the rescue.

[onenote]

67. Week of October 15

Ryan did 3 events in Ohio, 3 in Florida, 2 in Virginia, one in Wisconsin. Ryan doesn't decide where the campaign sends him, so the idea that he is trying to distance himself from this campaign is ridiculous.

[Frank Cannon]

68. He's an enormous douchebag, and we all know it.

Keeping him out of sight is the smartest thing they can do.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

71. As was pointed out on MSNBC last night...

Romney is trying to avoid the Mourdock issue, and having Ryan (who holds basically the same views) anywhere near a hot microphone is a recipe for disaster. I think the next few days, Ryan is going to be incommunicado.