2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDemocrats are Unifying Behind Our Candidate
The new national poll shows the Vermont independent pulling in 43 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents support, compared to 46 percent for Clinton, whose support has dropped steadily in recent weeks.
http://fortune.com/2016/04/18/poll-sanders-pulls-closer-to-clinton-than-ever/
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Clinton is going to win New York and Pennsylvania and Maryland and that will end his already narrow path to the nomination.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)either. Especially if the argument is that Hillary does.
apcalc
(4,465 posts)Lists himself as " I".
Victor_c3
(3,557 posts)I've been told on this forum that I'm not a democrat either. Apparently the democratic party is now the party of corporatist and warmongers. I thought the republicans were the party with those beliefs
So what party is the party opposed to those ideals (or lack thereof)?
dchill
(38,532 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)Did Team Hillary do signs and bumperstickers because I haven't seen any.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)60-70% of the vote is from NYC metro.
Clinton doesn't do a lot of yard signs and stickers. Same reason they don't do rallies--not a cost effective way to get people to vote.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)to win tonight and next Tuesday.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)And Hillary Clinton is eroding now, the worst possible time for her but very similar to her pattern in 2008.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-lead-narrows-among-democratic-primary-voters-poll-says-1460995230
btw, Reality Check: You are not a psychic.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)I am sure they must be somewhere. But don't you think people would be proud to trumpet their support if she was going to win?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Given what happened to Phillip Bump that seems prudent.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)We'll see.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)Sorry.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)leveymg
(36,418 posts)Comey is going to conclude she violated her signed classified information nondisclosure agreement. In effect, that's the same as recommending she be indicted. Start thinking about who can best put Humphrey Dumpy back together again.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)National polls are meaningless until late Summer.
seekthetruth
(504 posts).....who appeals to the type of people who love to rant about liberal ideals but drive huge SUVs, live in Mc-mansions, carry around SBUX cups while glued to their phones and jobs, and who don't critically think for themselves. At this point in the game, if people aren't angry at the very infrastructure of our politics, then they're just not that aware of reality.
Sadly, we don't have a media that's unbiased. Most Clinton supporters, I wager, probably only get their news from the cable networks and network TV.
Our society is fat, dumb, and happy, and to me, that's what Hillary represents.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)we see that in the net negative approvals.
I'm not a fan of demonizing supporters. The system is badly broken from the narrow range of choice (Ted Cruz's wife also works for Goldman Sachs) to the narrative-to-sell-you cable news outlets. My impression of Hillary supporters, the real ones, is that they see her as a safe choice, a known quantity.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)Basically, more than 3/4 of those who don't have an unambiguously negative view of her would have to vote for her - for her to win the GE.
And as far as I can see, that has never happened.
So it would be incredibly stupid to nominate Hillary under these circumstances.
seekthetruth
(504 posts).....my comments weren't intended to offend anyone. I was just referencing the total lack of unbiased reporting by the media, and how very difficult it is to gather substantial information about a particular campaign.
I agree that most supporters of Hillary find her to be the "safe" choice, but with the current state of our infrastructure, energy sources, and military expenditures, I find it hard to be sympathetic.
Honestly, why are so many Americans hesitant to challenge conventional thinking? Well, I know the answer from my own perspective, but I'd like to hear from others. From my perspective, we've become lazy as a society. I have, too. I just think that unless we all "wake up" and remove the veil of naiveté in trusting someone just because they have a "D" beside their name, that they have our (society as a collective) interests at heart, we'll sink further.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If Democrats only then Hillary swamps Bernie.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)Hillary is associated with the right wing now.
With neocons and drone bombings. With coups in Latin American countries and torture memos.
Sorry.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Pro union - right wing? On what planet? And with the Democrats I know, nobody is voting for Bernie. They think he's too old and not ready for prime time.
tabasco
(22,974 posts)Then "no we can't" after she gets elected.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)That a woman who has fought for many liberal issues for decades is going to get into office and put a scalia on the bench. The delusion is all you have apparently.
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)Hillary is eroding among Dem-only polls also. Doesn't bode well for the GE.
Mr. Sanders for the first time is close to tying Mrs. Clinton, as 48% of Democratic primary voters picked him as their first choice for president, while 50% picked her. In a poll last month, Mrs. Clinton was ahead by nine percentage points, enjoying a 53%-to-44% edge.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-lead-narrows-among-democratic-primary-voters-poll-says-1460995230
DCBob
(24,689 posts)There are very few polls that split out Dems from Indies.. but the ones I have seen show Hillary far ahead with just Dems and Bernie far ahead with just Indies. I think that is a well known undisputed situation from the beginning of this primary process.
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)WE MUST change congress and the senate. If it's business as usual, after this race, it's O V E R.
I hope younger voters understand this. We cannot allow the revolution to end with this primary.
Imagine,,,,,putting a batshit crazy person in office. Congress will have to work harder, pay more attention! They....will be miserable for the first time! This...is exactly what is needed.
SHOW CONGRESS....WE CAN MAKE THEM HEEL! IF IT'S NOT BERNIE, LOOK OUT. THEY WILL GET THEIR MEDICINE! VIVA REVOLUTION!
all american girl
(1,788 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)It likely will work great for progressive candidates.
Bernie definitely will spark a lot of turnout that would never show up for Hillary. Hillary if anything would have the opposite effect, she likely would result in a GOP sweep.
I think Bernie is the only wise choice.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)People who want to run need money. They need to set up staff, offices, flyers...get their message out. That costs money. They aren't Bernie with the nation looking at them, able to ask for donations...they are in some small place in Iowa, or where every. This has to start now. People will not vote for someone if they have no idea who the are, even with a D after their name.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)if local party establishments have gone out of their way to identify themselves with Hillary and Obama- though, rather than with issues.
let me give you one example, Obamacare. If i was a candidate, i would be running on the fact that Obamacare is stuck with extemely difficult and unworkable (non)choices because of ideology that almost no democrats are even aware of, something called "competition policy" - and that ideology is locked in place by international deals that the US public has never been told about. (Which were signed by Bill Clinton, BTW) BAD international deals that commit us to things like trading a LOT of public, quasi public and procurement-related jobs away (to low-bidding, likely to be foreign firms) for market access to foreign countries that may never materialize because of automation.
Thats a problem. I could not support Obamacare because its intended to hide some important things and ignoring them will end up trapping us in this bad policy forever. To understand how bad it is, one has to look at things like the Achmea v. Slovakia case in front of an international arbitral body.
Things most Americans have never heard about- and that is not an accident.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)You are smart...and I really mean that
Well, here's the deal...not all places are really progressive, but are center left and everything in between. Yes, I would love for everyone to be very progressive, but it's not going to happen everywhere, so having that as your only meter, my cause some folks not having a chance to get elected, and a republican will. Remember, we are a big tent and at times it is like herding cats...frustrating, but can be good. I've lived in many, many different states, and dems are not always the same.
Blue Meany
(1,947 posts)Democratic candidates for Congress in the mid-terms and they will be able to follow Bernie's populist model to victory.
Vincardog
(20,234 posts)all american girl
(1,788 posts)Because that seems like a lot. I'm just thinking this has to be more that email dumps. He has a voice, and he can't be only thinking of himself. He has to take an interest in it, even if he is busy. That's how this works.
Vincardog
(20,234 posts)all american girl
(1,788 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I'm sure you're happy about that.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)always some group of children that goes off and pouts
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Children think they can bad-mouth their opponents' supporters and they'll vote for them in the fall. Children think they can bad mouth the largest voting block, Independents, and they'll support their corporate-owned war hawk of a candidate.
It doesn't work that way anymore.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)all american girl
(1,788 posts)If less people are voting for Bernie, would that not mean that Hillary is more popular? I'm always confused by these statements. It's like blaming Hillary supporters for Bernie losing. Get people out to vote for Bernie...he wins...problem solved. I think everyone needs to quit getting mad at Hillary supporters and get Bernie supporters out voting. Just my 2 cents.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Independents will decide who is the next president. She does not do well with Independents. Bernie does.
As for getting out Bernie voters, there is a consensus among Sanders' supporters that the whole primary process was tilted to favor Clinton.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)These things are decided along time ago. As far as the GE, he still has to win the primary to make the GE. I'm just tired of hearing this, as if Hillary supporters are suppose to do something about it. They voted or are voting for their candidate, as they should. You are for Bernie, and that's great, but I feel like we are being blamed because Bernie isn't winning. I already voted, so there is nothing I can do, but instead of getting angry at Hillary voters, try to change minds to Bernie. All this Bernie or Bust stuff isn't going to change minds....and I'm not saying you are one, but there are a lot here.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Hyperbole aside...
How can you vote for someone who's under an FBI investigation? Is it that you believe this is more right-wing blather and won't amount to anything, even though the FBI is a non-partisan, independent investigation unit? Aren't you the least bit concerned that she'll get the nomination and then either be indicted or the FBI will recommend indictment, the Obama DoJ will refuse, which will create a hailstorm of "cover-up" stories?
I'm not trying to be mean, honestly. It's just that when I look to vote for someone, picking a candidate under a criminal investigation is a HUGE negative to me.
Paper Roses
(7,475 posts)all american girl
(1,788 posts)has ever come from anything...so I'm not ready to believe right wing crap...
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I guess that's where I draw the line. I'll agree with you on Benghazi and Travelgate and whatever, but I happen to work in cyber security and know how serious it is to mishandle national security data. I also know the FBI is a non-partisan investigative unit because I used to be a crime reporter for a newspaper 13 years ago. Yes, Comey is a Republican, but his boss is Obama. Seems this investigation is pretty non-partisan, at this point.
I guess I'd never take the risk my nominee might either be indicted or, in the best case scenario, have this cloud over his/her head.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She'll get about 70-80 percent of the 30 percent of Democratic voters. She'll start out with less, but the relentless screaming from her campaign that the only thing we should worry about is choice (even though the SCOTUS choice currently up is center-right and won't protect us from oligarchy), will bring it up to that number by the general election.
Then she'll get about 20-25 percent of the 43 percent of Independents. Mostly moderates. Left and progressive Democrats and Independents will either be demoralized and won't vote or will vote for a third party.
However, on the other side of the aisle, Satan himself could be the nominee and the GOP faithful will flock to the voting booth just for an opportunity to vote against another Clinton. They will not be demoralized in the least.
And, she'll lose.
It's easy to figure this out because progressives are motivated by a strong candidate who represents their values, while conservatives are motivated by how much they can hate the other side.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)The Dems vetted her with flowers and a kiss and a "go get 'em."
Every old and new silly thing she does is kind of like Grandma at Thanksgiving. That's just the way she is...please pass the gravy.
brush
(53,862 posts)That's what people are interested in now.