2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie's goal tonight: 45.6%
So far Bernie has won 45.6% of all the pledged delegates. If that rate remains until the end of the primaries the final pledged delegate count will be;
Bernie - 1847, Clinton - 2204.
This will leave Clinton 179 votes short of the nomination.
The last primary is June 14 and the convention starts July 25. A lot can happen in five and a half weeks, especially since the GOP has its convention first. If after the GOP convention the polls show that Bernie is a significantly stronger candidate against the GOP nominee then is Hillary, then the super delegates will have to nominate him. Hillary can claim the moral argument that she won the majority of pledged delegates and the popular vote. But the party leaders are politicians, their only concern is winning.
YouDig
(2,280 posts)Gomez163
(2,039 posts)Response to Gomez163 (Reply #4)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)Squinch
(50,949 posts)And you do know that the way elections work is that the one with the most votes wins, right?
Response to Squinch (Reply #52)
Name removed Message auto-removed
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)savalez
(3,517 posts)boomer55
(592 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)How about explaining it to me how it works.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)I keep asking and no reply.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The bottom line is they would prefer certain people couldn't vote but lack the intestinal fortitude to say so. Hey, they have to live with themselves.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)There was some thread, and I have no idea if it was snark or real, that said Bernie would have won except for women and minorities. The sad thing about it all, normally I would think it's snark, but not now. The Bernie dudes have gone after AAs (you know they are just not smart enough to "get" Bernie), women (you know we only vote with our girly bits), older people (I guess the youth is so much smarter than us), and LGBT (what, don't they know that Hillary is evil). Now I haven't seen them turn on Hispanics, but since Hillary keeps winning their vote, just wait.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)that's called winning fair and square.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)There is literally 0% chance of this happening.
Bernie's goal is 55% to have any chance of winning the pledged count that will decide the nominee.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)from the Democrat and give it to the third party dude who accused the party of breaking federal law.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Of a Bernie Presidency?
Good God.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Shades of Romney supporters in 2012 completely stunned that the unskewed polls didn't work out.
kjones
(1,053 posts)Cows live in a bern...
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Just curious.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I grew up in Queens, and laid my head down each night in a shared bedroom in a third floor walk-up, less than four miles from Shea Stadium. My mother was born in Brooklyn, raised in Queens. My grandfather was born and raised in Brooklyn. His father emigrated to Brooklyn from Ireland in the 1890's. My grandmother emigrated to Brooklyn from Ireland, still a teenager in the late 1920's. The grandparents moved out to Queens (when it was still "out"!) in the 50's, and I grew up in that neighborhood, around the corner from them, because that's how the working class Irish do. I went to New York City public schools K-12. As teenagers, we rode the trains, had keg parties in the parks of Queens, cruised Francis Lewis Boulevard, fought the kids from the other neighborhoods, went to clubs in the city and to the Irish bars in Sunnyside where we drank under age and hooked up in parked cars under the train tracks. State university Upstate after that, so I know outside NYC too. New York City is my home. I don't live there now, but it's my home. My next trip home is in June.
And, yes, Mets over Yankees. My grandfather was a Dodgers fan, of course.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)across the Whitestone Bridge on the Q44 bus as a teenager too. Was asking because me and Priyanka were talking about having a NY get together- hopefully after the convention. You'd be fun, I bet!
ecstatic
(32,703 posts)Half of them are looking for perfection, the other half just want to disrupt.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Too true!
the super delegates are going to overturn the will of the majority of the Democratic Party?
This is worse than a Hail Mary.
IamMab
(1,359 posts)ETA: For the jury, that's a South Park reference.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)we've been hearing how super delegates are the devil incarnate and don't reflect the will of the people and just make a mockery of the voting system....
...and now Bernie's only hope of winning rests in them going against the will of the people, making a mockery of the system and voting in the person the guy the people have said "NO!" to.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)1) Lose New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey
2) Let Hillary clinch the nomination
3) ????
4) Become the nominee
Just don't ask what #3 is.
jmowreader
(50,557 posts)An Underpants Gnome strategy only has three lines.
Corporate666
(587 posts)One of Bernie's platforms is the redistribution of underwear gnome strategy numbered points. For too long, the underwear gnomes have hoarded their numbers, only giving three. If he is elected president, Bernie will pass a law making all underwear gnome strategy lists FOUR lines long!
(thunderous applause)
<this will be paid for by a 38% tax increase on all Americans>
jmowreader
(50,557 posts)"Senator Sanders, how do you intend to force the underpants gnomes to make their strategy lists four lines long?"
"I haven't really considered that. Let me get back to you on that one."
Number23
(24,544 posts)IamMab
(1,359 posts)I don't hate to break it to you, either.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)That's a pipe dream.
LonePirate
(13,420 posts)If Bernie wins a majority of pledged delegates, the SDs should side with him.
If Hillary wins a majority of pledged delegates, the SDs should side with her.
Under no circumstance should the SDs overthrow the will of the voters by not siding with the majority winner of pledged delegates. Nothing could be more undemocratic than having a few hundred elites usurp the voices of millions of voters, regardless of who benefits.
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)post.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)and the superdelegates will and should vote for the person who enters the convention with the most pledged delegates. Sander's isn't going to get a 11th-hour save if primary season winds up with him in 2nd place.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Sanders has to run the rest of the table at ~57-58% to get more pledged delegates than Clinton. If he comes in below that...and he's on target to come in significantly below that, then he'll have to run the table at 59-60%. Which we all know is unicorn and leprechaun territory.
You're welcome.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)#Berniemath
jg10003
(976 posts)Only winning matters to them. I'm not saying it's right, but it's true.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)timmymoff
(1,947 posts)you will vote blue know matter who, Just like you Hillary supporters moaned and wailed about for months. Now all of a sudden they are thinking of going back to being PUMA's? Well kiss my ever loving ass, they are as consistent as their candidate, now a flip flop.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If the candidate WITH THE MOST PLEDGED DELEGATES AND POPULAR VOTES, regardless of who he or she is, is denied the nomination I will leave the party and urge every person of conscience to join me.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)where is your loyalty? Party before principle. That's what we've been sold since the beginning.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)As important as being a Democrat is to me and I have changed my religion several times, but I have never stopped being a Democrat, being a democrat is more important to me.
The notion of overturning the will of the voter is unfathomable to me.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Michael Dukakis turned a seventeen point post convention lead into a eight point loss. Don't make my word for it:
Also, black and Hispanic voters have given Secretary Clinton her margin of victory. Since the last Democrat to win the majority or plurality of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson the Democrats would literally rather lose the election than alienate them. Without people of color the Democratic party is done, from the state houses to Congress to the White house.
jmowreader
(50,557 posts)How will the "will of the voters" be kept, if the guy who lost the election gets the nomination?
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)stillwaiting
(3,795 posts)Supporting one of the two candidates will ensure things work out swimmingly well for them (not so well for most everyone else though).
I would not bet on Party leaders ever supporting Bernie. It will pay much, much less over the course of their lives.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Thank you in advance.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)snowflakes matter more. Their moms told them so.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The people who are making that suggestion really need to do some sober self reflection.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)You wonder what they have accomplished in their lives that they arrogate to themselves the power to usurp the rights of others. When you think about it it is a thinly veiled call to return to antebellum days.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)have to give me this because I WANT it!"
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)They are okay with certain folks voting up to and until these folks stop voting the way they want.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)Sanders, they're perfectly willing to "burn this sucker down."
Idiots.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If Hillary lost the popular vote and pledged delegate vote I would be crestfallen but I could not live with myself if I supported her stealing the nomination.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Petition by Emiljana Ulaj & Rob Akleh
To be delivered to Democratic Superdelegates
Commit to honoring the voters - let everyone know that you wont allow your vote to defeat our votes. Announce that in the event of a close race, youll align yourself with regular voters - not party elites.
http://pac.petitions.moveon.org/sign/superdelegates-dont-deny
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Response to jg10003 (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth This message was self-deleted by its author.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)(I think this is accurate)
If so, then it's over unless someone thinks Bernie should win by getting more supers than Hillary.
jg10003
(976 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)Nobody would see him as legitimate.
It's perhaps the most terrible idea I've read here (that isn't based on some ridiculous logical fallacy.)
Lone_Wolf
(1,603 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)So all is well in the universe!
amborin
(16,631 posts)she claims NY as her home state, and she has lost the last 7 out of 8 primaries; she has to win by a huge margin here
today just to stay solvent, so to speak; she's in big trouble
DCBob
(24,689 posts)that will send Bernie even farther behind.
Corporate666
(587 posts)Anything less than a 60% win (80 to 20) is a massive defeat for Clinton and shows that Bernie is on the verge of clinching the nomination.
Remember the strategy
1) Lose NY, CT, MD, PA and DE
2) Hillary wins the nomination
3) ????
4) Bernie becomes the nominee
Squinch
(50,949 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)when you created a scenario in which Clinton lost the delegate race but won on superdelegates.
Now you're touting it as your win condition. It's damned pathetic.
Corporate666
(587 posts)and thinking super delegates don't count.
They do.
Hillary only needs 624 more delegates to win the nomination.
She's going to get 160 of them (or so) tonight.
itsrobert
(14,157 posts)I like your numbers.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)After spending the primary season arguing against the unfairness of superdelegates, calling those same delegates "establishment", "corporate Democratic whores", and "corrupt" among other things, it's a stretch to think those same people are going to rally to Sanders. That's not even talking about the amount of work that Hillary has done for the Democratic Party over the years rather you're talking about money raised, stumping, or advice, a lot of people are going to feel very loyal to Secretary Clinton. Perhaps most importantly, superdelegates have NEVER went against the popular vote. They won't this year either.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Squinch
(50,949 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Squinch
(50,949 posts)the idea of paid trolls was absurd, but now I can't think of any other explanation for a bunch of posters.
FSogol
(45,484 posts)Squinch
(50,949 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)And here I was hoping to have an honest discussion about politics here on DU.
displacedtexan
(15,696 posts)It's really important. Stay in school, Kids.
That was a Bill Murray quote, BTW. I find it always lightens arguments about numbers.
BreakfastClub
(765 posts)Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)I hope I am wrong, but I just think there are too many scandals/skeletons, whether real or imagined. The RW media has had decades of demonizing her and it has stuck in the minds of many.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)MineralMan
(146,307 posts)That's weird. Truly. I think you may be incorrect about that.
Happyhippychick
(8,379 posts)To win less.
I think.
MineralMan
(146,307 posts)Got it.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)Hmmm.. Who was it.. Just a few weeks ago screaming about the "unfairness" of superdelegates, and now the whole winning strategy for the same campaign is that the superdelegates will depart from the popular vote, depart from the pledged delegate majority and coronate Sanders???
On the irony is downright delicious.
I guess that whole poutrage thing for months about "Democracy" and "majority rule" was only useful while it was beneficial, eh?
TomCADem
(17,387 posts)This was Hillary's first win in the past few primaries, and it was in her home State. So, lets put this behind us, feel the Bern, and on to California!
amborin
(16,631 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Cary
(11,746 posts)Lovely.
(spits)