Robert Shrum: Why Obama Will Win

[babylonsister]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/26/robert-shrum-why-obama-will-win.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedailybeast%2Fpolitics+%28The+Daily+Beast+-+Politics%29

Robert Shrum: Why Obama Will Win
by Robert Shrum Oct 26, 2012 4:45 AM EDT
Was it all a bluff? As Mitt Romney’s ‘surge’ erodes, the Republican nominee’s campaign faces reality. Across the swing states, the polls show the president holds the advantage.


Obama 2012

President Barack Obama greets supporters after speaking at a campaign event at the Carillon at Byrd Park, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012, in Richmond Va. The president is on the second day of his 48-hour, eight-state campaign blitz. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP Photo)

snip//

So it goes across the swing states, even in Florida and except in North Carolina. But there, the Obama campaign has registered a legion of new voters—and everywhere it has the most in-depth, technologically sophisticated, and well-staffed turnout operation in history. That can and will make the difference where the contest is close. The president has twice as many field offices as Romney—800 of them across the battlegrounds. And Romney’s are afterthoughts—late to the game, run by the Republican National Committee, and without the rich, data-based voter targeting of the Obama effort. A GOP operative in Colorado says he adds two to four points to the president’s poll numbers in the state because Obama has a better organization.

Finally, Romney can run, but he can’t hide—from the Bain ads that are on the air again in the Midwest, from the relentless Obama focus on the choice between a candidate who stands for the middle class and a candidate who favors the 1 percent. Now he faces the prospect of explaining his 1991 testimony in a post-divorce lawsuit against the founder of Staples—which has been unsealed by a court in Boston. This could be the next chapter in the story of a business career that was his calling card, but has become a political liability.

Stuff just keeps happening to Mitt Romney. He has to flee the press to avoid answering questions about the only Senate candidate he’s made an ad for—Indiana’s Richard Mourdock, who suddenly dominated the national news with his repugnant divination that a pregnancy due to rape is “something God intended.” Romney can’t bring himself to pull the endorsement ad; he’s too afraid of his own right-wing shadow. He can’t escape the extremists in his party with whom he fellow-travelled as he pandered his way to the nomination.

Thus the gender gap widens—and the moderate makeover unravels. Mitt is mired in the mid-20s with Hispanics, who heard him say “illegals” should “self-deport.” He’s far behind with younger voters—and the Obama organization will get them to the polls, with an assist from Romney’s position on social issues like reproductive rights and marriage equality. The restrictive voter-ID laws have mostly been struck down, at least for this year, and blacks and other minorities won’t be blocked from casting their ballots. Blue-collar workers in the Midwest can’t forgive Romney’s opposition to saving the auto industry—and they don’t trust the man from Bain. Even his lead among seniors is being eroded by his plan to replace Medicare with Vouchercare—and to raise the cost of their prescription drugs.

That’s why enough of the battleground states, where the campaign is being fully engaged, will be Obama country on Election Night. The brief silly cycle of spin about the impending, even inevitable Romney presidency is ending.

Let the Romneyans enjoy their premature claim of victory. It’s the only one they’ll have.

[tessar]

1. David Axelrod: "come Nov 6 we'll see who was bluffing" n/t

[outsideworld]

3. BOOOOOOM

[coldbeer]

27. MSNBC sucks. ATTN Maddow and Schultz and Keethie boy!!!!

OBAMA did not lose the first debate. He sucked RMONEY in.
How can he lose a debate when mittsy takes his side?

Obama sucked you pundits in!

[Phx_Dem]

34. That tweet says it all. It makes me very happy.

[outsideworld]

2. Made me smile

Made me smile

[DarthDem]

4. Fantastic Stuff

Thanks for posting. It makes quite a bit of sense. I love the part about crediting the president's standing in the polls with additional points due to the strength of his organization.

[gottavote]

5. Smile while you GOTV

Just smile while you Get Out the Vote. Working that wonderful system is what makes it happen.

[avebury]

6. K&R nt

[smorkingapple]

7. While he may be right, the stench of Shrum is still strong...

Anything he's confident of, i'm wary of... His track record is ass...

[PDittie]

12. +1

[NoMoreWarNow]

17. indeed-- let's not be complacent because of this guy

and this is very CW info anyway

[INdemo]

19. Why are you so critical of Shrum?was it the Kerry campaign?

Well remember Kerry didnt lose..The 110,000 hidden/lost votes were not challanged by then DNC chairman..I just want to know why you are so against Shrum?

[PDittie]

22. 0 for 8 in presidential campaigns he has advised

Including Kerry in 2004. From McGovern to Gore.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9895-2004Sep9.html

Not including his prediction in 2010 that the Democrats would hold the House.

http://theweek.com/bullpen/column/207701/democrats-will-hold-the-house-and-senate

Granted, he self-effaced the above with "Maybe I'm wrong...", but when Ann Coulter gets you into the Urban Dictionary, you might just be pathetic.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=shrum

(#4)

My apologies for misspelling his name previously.

[Submariner]

8. I clicked the link and got a "High Risk Malware Alert"

with my Sophos AVirus. Page is totally blocked.

[babylonsister]

9. Really? I have virus protection and didn't get any warnings.

[PDittie]

10. Schrum might finally get one right

He's been wrong so many times it's amazing anyone pays attention to him (no disrespect intended to my frind babsis).

[babylonsister]

13. Hey, you!

Long time, PDittie! Hope all is well in your neck of the woods! And yes, I'm aware of Shrum's lousy record, but I thought this was worth sharing.

[PDittie]

20. Oh absolutely

Just staying hunkered down in the beast's belly, same as you. Still reflect with fondness upon our trip to Camp Casey right before Katrina hit.

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

39. schrum might get one right, but at least you know how he feels ,multi-mitt pick a number crap n\t

you can right a thousand time but if you pick a wrong time to change your mind

[daybranch]

11. Reason for Win in swingstate Ohio

Obama will be able to credit his win in Ohio to 1. enacting policies vital to many many people
2. Our belief in the need to care for all the people 3. His perceived protection of civil rights and womens human rights including choice and birth control. 3. The belief in continuing his economic policies. 4. The observed obstruction by the republicans affecting all groups. 5. the observed hatred of republicans against non-whites, which will turn out African Americans. Latinos, Asian Americans, and white people men and women who believe in the dignity and worth of individuals whatever their color, national ancestry, sex, or sexual orientation. 6. Deeply committed volunteers who man the phones, walk to doors, assemble walk packages, drive canvassers, enter data, distribute and or make signs, contribute money and supplies to the campaign, and the many many paid staffers who coordinate these efforts with many many experienced activists and new activists all over the state are the primary reason Obama will win.
As far as a claim of great technology, it is important to remember much of that technology including predictive dialers, landlines, and computers have been purchased by the Ohio democratic party and Unions. The Obama campaign benefits directly from the technology being used by other sympathetic groups but does not own or directly use all of this technology. So we must all work together.
Right now through the election our most urgent need is more people to canvass, and better training for canvassers and drivers. We need data entry people to quickly get the data in so we can pull the last Obama voters out of the weeds, and we really need anyone who can drive canvassers through their routes to do so. As we have gotten closer to election the doors we knock on have gotten farther and farther apart as we persuaded many to vote early and identified Romney supporters who we will not visit again. Now to cover the increased distances we need those who have done other ,such as persuasion calls and data entry, if possible to step into the roles of volunteer recruiter on the phone or with their friends and family or to drive canvassers. We need to recommit to more shifts for ourselves and to help ourselves and others work smarter in everyway we can. This is why Obama will win -because he must!!

[PDittie]

14. "Thus the gender gap widens"

See, that does not appear to be accurate:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/1025/Confusing-polls-Has-Mitt-Romney-closed-the-gender-gap-or-not

It may become accurate as we watch the polling over the next few days, but the data today disagrees with that premise. I am forced to sanity-check everything Bob Scrum says, and that grows tiresome.

[babylonsister]

15. From Eugene Robinson:

President Obama enters the final days of the campaign with a substantial lead among women—about 15 points, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll—and enormous leads among Latinos and African-Americans, the nation’s two largest minority groups. Mitt Romney leads among white voters, with an incredible 2-1 advantage among white men.

So how do we prove the fallacy that Romney is winning among women? That's driving me crazy.

[PDittie]

21. I think we wait

for the latest polling. This week's developments are just beginning to reveal themselves.

[Maximumnegro]

30. The gap was always there. Come on

the campaign has been clear about this for a while. Why do you care about the national polling? All the stuff you're scared about is stuff the campaign addressed and every statement they've made about the race has turned out spot on. But no one actually reads statements by the campaign, they just waste time looking at the national polling while changing their underwear.

Read statements from the campaign that represents the party you're in. It helps.

[PDittie]

31. This response means something.

I'm just not sure what it is. Was unfocused ad hominem your actual intention? Or was that just accidental?

"Why do I care about the national polling?" Gee, I don't know...because there's about to be a presidential election?

"All the stuff I'm scared about is..." nothing. I don't feel scared about a single thing. I have a full stomach, a warm home, money in the bank, and a little company doing OK. I'm way better off than many, and am pretty confident the president will be re-elected.

And I can honestly say that I have never looked at polling while changing my underwear. Not once in my entire lifetime.

I hope you find the quarrel you seek.

[Myrina]

16. Listening to peeps in stores, at work, etc here in Indiana ...

I am VERY nervous. It's like they've turned off their brains and are just squawking the easiest-to-remember Faux points.
Not even worth trying to engage them because they're blatantly arguing against their own interests and jobs and can't even see it - totally through the looking glass.

I truly hope it was just my designated day to bump into alotta nutwingers but, geez.

[INdemo]

23. ..I had this conversation with one of those Indiana voters that had their brain turned off or

at least low on batteries..He is also a member of a union..a strong Democratic supportive union.
This guy told me about this documentary about Obama that his wife had on DVD and that if Obama was reelected we would be paying about 90-100% tax..we would lose our pensions and forced to drop our insurance bla bla bla ...What? still this guy went on and on.Could not believe this coming from a union member ..but he dropped the comments when a couple more coworkers stopped to listen to his "stump" speech.

When Clinton was President another co-worker was bashing Clinton and I made the comment that any union member that would support a Republican does not deserve to carry a union card..from that day forward that guy didn't speak to me again.

[mountain grammy]

25. Been there, done that!

The 1980 Oscar winning performance suckered almost everyone I knew. Had one friend who's husband was an air traffic controller. They weren't fooled and knew what was coming. I was devastated to see so many working people falling for the conservative line. The conservative narrative took hold, even as working people were getting screwed. Right wing radio was cranking up until, finally, in the 90,s when we elected a Democratic president, Fox News took off and the rest is history.
I do blame myself and many liberals. We were in the streets to stop the Vietnam war and believed in peace and love, but watched the right wing takeover and did nothing. In fact, many of my generation have gone over to the dark side... and it really is the dark side. As a union steward and an officer in our local, I beat my head against the stone wall all during the 90's.

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

36. we need you more now remember -Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it

my family has always been union ,i bleed blue ,we got our first home thru the loans available from the union.family could sent there kids to good schools,take a vacation two weeks a year, honest pay for an honest day of work .i remember patco they thought they could make a deal with the devil patco gave money and suppose to their own k*llers.after they crushed patco they used it as a template to divide and conquer . we are dealing with the consequence till this day

[renate]

41. well, in a sense, don't worry about Indiana

Except for the races further down the ticket. But just in terms of the presidential election, Nate Silver has 99.7% odds that it's going for Romney. Which kind of proves what you're saying about how they've turned off their brains.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Demeter]

18. If Bob Shrum predicts victory---we are doomed

Not a good sign.

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

37. you can take dick morris we will keep bob shrum n\t

[Miami4Obama]

24. Love Bob Shrum

A great analyst, i wish he had his own show, he is great, and he really likes Obama. I am voting tomorrow with my 6 brothers and family. yeeeeh!

[rso]

26. Shrum

I liked the way he put down Trump earlier during the week.

[BlueDemKev]

28. Oh God, I HOPE so!!!

OBAMA-BIDEN 2012!!!

Forward, America!!!!

[whttevrr]

29. Just posted this at the source article at The Daily Beast...

My greatest consternation is the idea that is being put into the public discourse is that 45-47% of the voters in America support Romney. It makes me sad to think that so many people could be fooled by this man. He is anathema to everything that is America.

Romney is a sociopath.

He is against 47% of America; The Disabled, The Retired, The Hungry, The Poor.

He is against freedom of choice.

He is against the American Dream for everyone.

The Statue of Liberty is inscribed with the words:

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

We are the last bastion of hope. We are America! And this guy Romney wants to turn us into China. He wants to make that Global-Tech Factory he bought in 1998, the one with guard towers and cramped dorms, the new American Nightmare.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

32. +1

Nicely done!

[babylonsister]

35. That is great, and I am glad you posted it.

Thank you for doing so; what kind of response did you get? That poem always gets me. We are a melting pot until we are not. I want us to keep being who we are; it makes us so much more interesting!

[amborin]

33. K&R

[Cha]

38. I don't care what Shrum's record is..he certainly backed Winners.

And, he's written some excellent articles all along this campaign cycle. Very compelling. But, we'll know in a couple of weeks if his prediction hits the center. I mean does anyone really have a crystal ball? Except Krystal Ball, of course.

I will not relax until President Obama is declared the Winner. It was and always is about GOTV.

[TheNaimSadik]

40. Spam deleted by NRaleighLiberal (MIR Team)

[ailsagirl]

42. Robert Shrum is one fantastic speech writer

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
1980 Democratic National Convention concession speech written for Senator Edward Kennedy by Bob Shrum