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FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:25 AM Apr 2016

The most accurate poll in elections is the exit poll

The exit poll showed a 4% spread. That would have been a huge loss for the establishment. I hope Team Bernie is collecting all the evidence and will use it to swing delegates at the convention. I no longer wish to be living under machine politics. END CLINTONISM NOW!

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The most accurate poll in elections is the exit poll (Original Post) FlatBaroque Apr 2016 OP
... SidDithers Apr 2016 #1
A facebook post voicing the same concern FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #2
And CNN SheenaR Apr 2016 #24
Well, it's interesting CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #46
compromised fraud........ bkkyosemite Apr 2016 #26
Oh dear. grossproffit Apr 2016 #3
So actually counting all the votes is irrelevant? Agnosticsherbet Apr 2016 #4
Why yes, that's precisely what I said!! Actually I don't speak Clintonese FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #8
Then I will take you at your word. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2016 #25
There were election projection experts... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #36
Just love jehop61 Apr 2016 #10
It's a pretty simple concept, really... tex-wyo-dem Apr 2016 #35
Elisabeth Kubler-Ross says hi./nt DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #5
And, she says, "My book might help"...LOL! Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #31
Exit polls overweighted Buffalo. factfinder_77 Apr 2016 #6
Correction: The most accurate poll is the vote count. CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #7
Not in the US of A it ain't. Not even close. Not since 2000, at least. / FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #50
This is false, the most accurate poll is the vote count uponit7771 Apr 2016 #9
Apparently, exit polls are only significant in third world countries. winter is coming Apr 2016 #11
They're not to check the vote total to within a few points. Zynx Apr 2016 #12
Ten points is not "a few". n/t winter is coming Apr 2016 #15
Initial rounds of exit polls can be demographically very different from the final rounds. Zynx Apr 2016 #23
CNN was reporting a four point spread after the polls closed. winter is coming Apr 2016 #37
They don't tabulate all of the results of the exit polls until about 2 hours after the polls close. Zynx Apr 2016 #40
I wish Jimmy Carter would monitor our elections FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #14
With electronic voting, I'm not sure our elections are transparent enough TO monitor. winter is coming Apr 2016 #16
I always wondered why the Dem establishment never complained about electronic FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #17
+10000 J_J_ Apr 2016 #56
Jimmy Carter has already stated the US farleftlib Apr 2016 #18
I feel the same way. It is a nightmare from which I cannot awaken. FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #19
I know farleftlib Apr 2016 #21
That is my nightmare. A full on engagement in Syria, back in Iraq, and Iran FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #34
I have that same nightmare J_J_ Apr 2016 #57
K&R jg10003 Apr 2016 #52
like the 2009 Honduran vote where they banned abstentionism, murdered opponents, MisterP Apr 2016 #58
Exit polls can't include voters disenfranchized who should have been allowed. ViseGrip Apr 2016 #13
"The problem with them is that most analysts and readers treat them as if they’re infallible." Capt. Obvious Apr 2016 #20
Thanks for the link, but I do not consider the NYTimes to be credible on any subject except FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #22
... because they don't tell you what you want to hear. Many on the right feel exactly the same way. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #28
It doesn't matter which link I shared out of the simple internet search returns Capt. Obvious Apr 2016 #29
Of course exit polls aren't "infallible"...what a stupid comment... tex-wyo-dem Apr 2016 #51
The most accurate figures come from the voting. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #27
Democrats- Total Faith in Election Results since 2016 LadyHawkAZ Apr 2016 #30
When you claim that every fucking election is rigged, people stop listening. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #33
People can be persuaded to believe some strange shit LadyHawkAZ Apr 2016 #38
Every election? Every one? And only Sanders is the target? Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #39
Refer back to the photo in my other post LadyHawkAZ Apr 2016 #42
No kidding. And neither one is running this year. And neither one claimed tampering in every state. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #45
Your claim: LadyHawkAZ Apr 2016 #47
There were past exits that overestimated Hillary RandySF Apr 2016 #32
That was ONE exit poll firebrand80 Apr 2016 #41
Interesting how exit poll and votes correspondence doesn't mean anything anymore... DemocracyDirect Apr 2016 #43
That should be of some concern because in many countries, exit polling is used FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #48
Ungh.... Godhumor Apr 2016 #44
Exit polls are notorious for being wrong workinclasszero Apr 2016 #49
Headline based on pre voting polls. Half-Century Man Apr 2016 #54
Not surprised at discrepancy, my 3 daughters are afraid to tell their friends they are pro-Hillary eastwestdem Apr 2016 #53
Thank you. I just burst out laughing. That was quite Hillaryous. FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #55
Has anyone here ever seen an exit pollster? Retrograde Apr 2016 #59

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
2. A facebook post voicing the same concern
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:27 AM
Apr 2016

John Poundstone
10 hrs ·
A troubling and important issue in tonight's results, exit polls show a 4% lead for Hillary Clinton, but with 95% of Precincts reporting the Clinton lead is 15%. Exit polls are not that inaccurate and the media outlets who produced those poll numbers have no interest in understating Clinton's lead. So why is there such a vast discrepancy? A nearly 4 to 1 mistake in polling? Not likely. Also note that the millions of Independents not allowed to vote and the 128,000+ Dem voters who were purged did not get to vote and therefore cannot have distorted those exit polls. So how did this happen? The results are red flags for any experienced election observer. This can only have one of two factual causes, either the media has lost all ability to conduct an exit poll (highly unlikely as the exiting voter has no reason to misrepresent their voting) or the vote recording and counting has been compromised by some sort of systemic error or fraud. Given the reports coming from other states and large numbers of Precincts across NY today... I suggest the issues are systemic and fraud based. Again, I am an experienced election official from the Democratic party with decades of experience in US election operations and as an international observer of Elections across Africa.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
24. And CNN
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:49 AM
Apr 2016

Is one of the few outlets in the world approved for exit polling.

Strange indeed

Not saying we would have won. But it is what it is

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
46. Well, it's interesting
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:22 AM
Apr 2016

Because let's say it was a 4-5 point race and Bernie would have lost. Bernie would have won 75 percent of all NY counties. He would have most likely earned more delegates in NY than Clinton. Most NY delegates are awarded on a proportional basis by the outcome in each congressional district.

If this was a very close race, Bernie would have ended up winning more delegates than Clinton. This is because Bernie was wining far more counties that Clinton was. Bernie won 75 percent of NY counties.

They couldn't have that happen, now could they?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,673 posts)
36. There were election projection experts...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:05 AM
Apr 2016

There were election projection experts who said the CNN exit polls were horribly flawed the moment they were released:



Benchmark Politics ?@benchmarkpol 6m6 minutes ago
CNN exit polls appear incredibly poor today.

Benchmark Politics ?@benchmarkpol 2m2 minutes ago
Making a race call: Clinton will win the 2016 New York Democratic Primary. Margin call at 30%. Clinton overperforming benchmarks EVERYWHERE


Benchmark Politics ?@benchmarkpol 17m17 minutes ago
Exit polls may be very wrong. Regardless, Clinton is killing it in delegats at the CD level.


Benchmark Politics ?@benchmarkpol 4m4 minutes ago
Clinton beating benchmarks everywhere. Winning in Putnam, a Sanders County.
50 retweets 48 likes
Reply Retweet 50
Like 48
More


https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol

tex-wyo-dem

(3,190 posts)
35. It's a pretty simple concept, really...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:04 AM
Apr 2016

Exit polls are used in democratic elections across the world used as an oversight metric to the actual election results, which are frequently affected by fraud. Red flags are raised when the discrepancy of election results and exit polls exceeds a certain threshold (8% or greater is what I have read in the past). The discrepancy in NY last night is ~12%.

Zynx

(21,328 posts)
12. They're not to check the vote total to within a few points.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:35 AM
Apr 2016

They're to make sure that the election outcome roughly makes sense.

Zynx

(21,328 posts)
23. Initial rounds of exit polls can be demographically very different from the final rounds.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:49 AM
Apr 2016

Different groups of people vote materially different.

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
37. CNN was reporting a four point spread after the polls closed.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:06 AM
Apr 2016

That's not "early". This big a difference doesn't pass the smell test.

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
14. I wish Jimmy Carter would monitor our elections
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:37 AM
Apr 2016

I always thought that Republicans were the ones who would use election fraud to secure a nominal victory. I was wrong.

One of the many things that Bernie has accomplished is drawing the curtain back on the corruption and machine politics in the country's large cities. It is now up to us to upend this horrible disaster of a 2 party system.

 

farleftlib

(2,125 posts)
18. Jimmy Carter has already stated the US
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:42 AM
Apr 2016

is now a democracy in name only. And he would know. The fact that he came right out and said it means the party is over. This primary has been one massive screw up after another, all favoring HRC. I don't need a house to fall on me to see what is going on. I almost wish I didn't see it.

 

farleftlib

(2,125 posts)
21. I know
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:48 AM
Apr 2016

Only 240 years and we're in such a state of decline I don't know if even Bernie could stop it. Plenty of money for wars but nothing that helps people. And so many buy into that.

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
34. That is my nightmare. A full on engagement in Syria, back in Iraq, and Iran
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:03 AM
Apr 2016

No money to help fix our domestic problems.

I am praying for a criminal indictment.

 

J_J_

(1,213 posts)
57. I have that same nightmare
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 11:04 AM
Apr 2016

Many people do, and if she 'wins' this nomination, we are going to be stuck with Trump which is another nightmare. We are screwed.

MisterP

(23,730 posts)
58. like the 2009 Honduran vote where they banned abstentionism, murdered opponents,
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:13 PM
Apr 2016

any honest candidate withdrew, and it was condemned by the UN, Carter Center, and OAS

or the 2013 one where the only honest candidate was consistently ahead in the polls but then mysteriously "lost" after open vote-buying, voter intimidation, and murder of 18 opponent candidates and activists

both were used by Washington to legitimate a coup regime in the hope that things would go quiet and become a fait accompli

 

ViseGrip

(3,133 posts)
13. Exit polls can't include voters disenfranchized who should have been allowed.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:35 AM
Apr 2016

So I wonder if 4 points was even there....

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
22. Thanks for the link, but I do not consider the NYTimes to be credible on any subject except
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:48 AM
Apr 2016

reporting the sports scores, travel, and crossword puzzles.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
28. ... because they don't tell you what you want to hear. Many on the right feel exactly the same way.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:55 AM
Apr 2016

Go figure.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
29. It doesn't matter which link I shared out of the simple internet search returns
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:55 AM
Apr 2016

as they're all in on this conspiracy.

tex-wyo-dem

(3,190 posts)
51. Of course exit polls aren't "infallible"...what a stupid comment...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:33 AM
Apr 2016

By the NYT. Neither exit polls or actual vote counts are infallible and will have a certain error.

Fraud committed in democratic elections throughout the world are fairly commonplace. One purpose of exit polls is as a competitive metric to the "official" vote results. Historically, if the official and exit poll discrepancy exceeds a certain threshold, then red flags should be raised for an investigation. The threshold varies, but as I understand it is typically around 5-8%.

LadyHawkAZ

(6,199 posts)
38. People can be persuaded to believe some strange shit
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:10 AM
Apr 2016

That doesn't change facts. Our elections have been tampered with for some time.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
45. No kidding. And neither one is running this year. And neither one claimed tampering in every state.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:15 AM
Apr 2016

Your point?

LadyHawkAZ

(6,199 posts)
47. Your claim:
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:26 AM
Apr 2016

"The most accurate figures come from the voting".
You were wrong.

I haven't seen claims of tampering in every state, just the states with verified suppression.

RandySF

(56,124 posts)
32. There were past exits that overestimated Hillary
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:59 AM
Apr 2016

I didn't cry foul over that. It's also possible that Bernie's supporters were more anxious to respond.

 

DemocracyDirect

(708 posts)
43. Interesting how exit poll and votes correspondence doesn't mean anything anymore...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:14 AM
Apr 2016

I guess we should just be realistic about Democracy.

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
48. That should be of some concern because in many countries, exit polling is used
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:29 AM
Apr 2016

as a primary defense to ferret out election fraud.

Half-Century Man

(5,279 posts)
54. Headline based on pre voting polls.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:49 AM
Apr 2016

It was the case that caused the press to use exit polls to base predictions on.
All the votes wouldn't be completely counted until days later. Paper ballots counted by hand.

 

eastwestdem

(1,220 posts)
53. Not surprised at discrepancy, my 3 daughters are afraid to tell their friends they are pro-Hillary
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:37 AM
Apr 2016

I have two of voting age - 21 and 18, and a 13 year old. All report severe ridicule from their peers when saying anything positive about Hillary. The oldest has found a group of like-minded kids, and has in fact flipped several of their friends, but the younger two would rather just not make waves. I can totally see any of them coming out of a polling place with their friends, and lying to the pollsters. Bullying is a powerful thing.

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
55. Thank you. I just burst out laughing. That was quite Hillaryous.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:53 AM
Apr 2016


All we can do is laugh in the face of this existential challenge to democracy.

Retrograde

(10,004 posts)
59. Has anyone here ever seen an exit pollster?
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:49 PM
Apr 2016

I've voted in every election for the past 40 years, and I've never come across one. Of course, the last decade has been mostly mail-in votes, but still, how many polling sites can they hit? I suppose they could call, but then there are the people who block calls from non-recognized callers because they are tired of robocalls

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