Win Democratic Nomination: Hillary Clinton Would To NEED TO WIN 67.9% Remaining Pledged Delegates

[Segami]

~snip~

Which is where Sanders’ view of super-delegates and an open Democratic Convention comes in. First, the basic mechanics of the thing: because Democratic super-delegates remain unpledged until the Democratic National Convention, any Democratic candidate wishing to clinch the Democratic nomination prior to the Convention — a privilege, not a right — is forced to do so via pledged delegates alone. This seeming paradox is of course no paradox at all: super-delegates are supposed to wield no power or influence over the Democratic nominating process until the Party’s summer convention. That’s why even a moderately strong primary candidate would be expected to be able to win without them. Indeed, it only takes 58.8 percent of the pledged delegates to get to this year’s “clinch” mark — 2,383 delegates — which any clear front-runner worth his or her salt should be able to accrue with relative ease. Right now Clinton has 54 percent of the pledged delegates earned in primaries and caucuses (1,432) and Sanders 46 percent (1,219). In other words, it’s a single-digit race that’s been tightening in the national polls for well over a month now. The current average of national polls has Clinton up on Sanders by less than 2 percent. So — likely in vain — Clinton and Sanders are both trying their best to get to 2,383 pledged delegates by the last voting day of the primary season (a day, June 14th, still almost two months off) not only so that super-delegates will become immaterial at the Democratic National Convention but also so that their respective victories would be seen as decisive — and democratic.

~snip~

Of course, the Democratic Party is always hoping no race gets close enough for a unity ticket to become necessary, let alone for the nomination to be decided by Party elders. And yet that’s exactly what’s going to happen in the Democratic race this year, as neither Sanders nor Clinton has any realistic chance of clinching the Democratic Party’s nomination via voted-upon delegates alone. Clinton would need to win 67.9 of the remaining 1,400 pledged delegates to do so, and Bernie Sanders would need to win 83.1 percent of these delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination exclusively via the will of actual voters. Both of these targets are, if not statistically impossible, so beyond the capacity of these two candidates in what is — nationally and state-by-state — at worst a tied race and at best a race favoring one candidate or the other 55 percent to 45 percent that continued discussion of a pledged-delegate-only clinch is without purpose. In a race like this one, the only way to avoid waiting until the Democratic National Convention and seeing how the super-delegates vote on the first ballot is for one of the candidates to concede. It’s what Hillary Clinton, in the midst of a horse-race against an ideologically near-identical opponent, did in 2008, and it’s now what she’s hoping Bernie Sanders will do on June 14th should his 213-delegate deficit (possibly a bit higher, depending upon a last few delegate allocations) not be erased sometime between now and that date.

~snip~

Instead, what Clinton could and should do in this situation is (a) say that Sanders should keep his own counsel on any concession, (b) not declare victory or name a VP nominee, and (c) simply win on the first ballot in Philadelphia. Besides crimping the pageantry of the convention somewhat — forcing a post-first ballot VP rollout — it’s no skin off her back. While taking this position might annoy some of her supporters, who’d like to see her declare victory if she’s leading by even one delegate (pledged or otherwise) after the D.C. primary, she needs to think strategically if she wants to reunify the Democratic Party. And the only way to do that is to let Sanders expose just how broken the Party is. Yes, that’s the paradigm shift we’re in: a paradoxical one in which you have to let something be revealed for all its weaknesses before you can reenergize it. You must allow deconstruction to be total before you can reconstruct hopefully and with solidarity across all factions of the Democratic Party. Mind you, none of this will happen. Clinton is surrounded, excuse me saying it, by idiots who only understand brute force and blind loyalty. They are smug, cynical, and without any principles besides their first one: win at any costs. It’s a Republican ethos from way back, but it’s the way (literally) Hillary was raised, so she and Bill fall back on it whenever they’re embattled. That Republican ethos toward transparency (none of it) and competition (only if ruthless) is actually what Americans are reacting to when they say, in near-historic numbers, that they don’t like Hillary. But I’ll leave off on that, as it’s all way above the heads of her crew. The point is, if he’s the candidate he and most of America thinks he is, Bernie Sanders is not going to concede on June 14th. In fact, he’s not going to concede at all — ever. Even after Hillary Clinton (and the mainstream media) completely unnecessarily declares her victory on June 14th.He will (in this hypothetical I’m drawing) simply lose on the first ballot in Philadelphia and then demand, on the strength of having about 50 percent of the Party behind him, that the Party abolish super-delegates.

That’s right: Bernie is going for broke.

He’s going to demand an end to super-delegates, closed primaries, arduous party registration regulations, long voting lines due to broken or old voting machines, confusing party registration forms and voting ballots, super-PACs, and much more. Then he’s going to tell Hillary that they can form a unity ticket if she (a) helps him enact these Party reforms and (b) agrees to support (and, as titular head of the Party, demand) his nomination to be Senate Minority Leader — or, if November goes well, Senate Majority Leader. Or, he’ll do none of these things. He has every ability to change the course of his story. But the story as he’s telling it now proceeds as I’ve described. And because the story as Clinton is now describing it involves none of these things, I’ll note where her own story ends: in November, with a Trump presidency. Because, contrary to the explicit advice of Mook and Brock and Palmieri, in fact Sanders supporters weren’t joking around when they said that 2016 isn’t 2008. It wouldn’t be the first cliff Hillary’s inner circle has driven her off. But if we play out the Sanders story as it’s currently been written, Sanders, buoyed by his followers — roughly half the Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters in America — won’t concede prior to the Democratic National Convention. Indeed, he and his surrogates have been saying precisely that for weeks now, and I’ve been saying it for weeks here, only it was largely scoffed at by the media until it became (as though they’d conceived of it themselves) the top topic of daily discourse on CNN after Trump’s hair and anything his mouth produces.


cont'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-is-right-on-super_b_9695718.html

[Segami]

1. Bernie is serious about change.

[northernsouthern]

4. Boom!

I think this the narrative we need. Complain about his votes all you want, but she also fails. The HRC camp that talks smack about RNC imploding all the time will soon see that we are no better. The DNC is Ahab going after Trump.

[redstateblues]

9. Bernie has no plan. No plan to win back Congress or state houses. He's barely lifted a finger

To help down ballot Dems. He was serious about his Hail Mary Papal Ambush but that did not help in New York like he and Tad thought it would. I'm sure he's got some more serious tricks up his sleeve.

[Bohemianwriter]

11. Does Hillary have a plan that does not include 3rd way democrats...

open for donations from rich uncles and four hours a day of phone begging?

[ChisolmTrailDem]

15. Oh, so now we're back to that claptrap? Hahahahahahahahaaaa! ROFL!!! That's HUGH!!111! nt

[grasswire]

30. I guess you missed the part recently where he raised a lot of money..

....for three female progressive candidates for Congress?

[COLGATE4]

65. Too little. Too late. nt

[Admiral Loinpresser]

86. Welcome to "full ignore." n/t

[pdsimdars]

71. And all of us are serious about change too.

[bvf]

2. Ain't goin' anywhere. K&R!

[restorefreedom]

3. we will not quit. we will stand together. nt

[JimDandy]

29. In it to get to the beginning after the end...

[restorefreedom]

59. what a great sig pic! nt

[JimDandy]

82. Thanks! I borrowed it from another DUer. n/t

[restorefreedom]

84. sharing....its the bernie way :) nt

[Joob]

5. Yep. Cold hard truth - We want Corruption out, no matter what.

[JDPriestly]

34. Corruption out. Yes. That's what we want and will have.

[MFM008]

6. Lets see how he goes forward

As head of the Party, she will decide depending on how much his rhetoric hurts democrats, if he has any real influence at the convention.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

7. K&R! Omigod, omigod, omigod!!!11!! This is fucking HUGH!!11!1 Series af!!11! Holy cow, my...

...heart is pounding at the thought of such a fabulous spectacle!!

FUCKING GO BERNIE!!

He needs to start saying this TOMORROW!

[COLGATE4]

66. You forgot to use the

[notadmblnd]

8. Intresting article.

Thanks

[Autumn]

10. I'm going for broke with Bernie.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

12. Bernie or Bust!!! nt

[bjo59]

42. Me too!!!!!!!

[COLGATE4]

67. I suspect that, with him continuing to drain the $27

(or more) in a totally futile quixotic quest for the nomination that some of your fellow Bernie supporters may also go broke.

[CoffeeCat]

78. I will continue to pay Bernie's campaign to do this!!!

I am upping my donations to Bernie. I've made two since New York.

I will happily and enthusiasticall pay Bernie's campaign to keep fighting!!

We didn't donate to Bernie only to see him quit!!!! We have earned the right to stay in the race.

No amount of bullying from the Clinton camp is going tomorrow change that.

[TM99]

13. Now this is a revolution!

Fuck yeah!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

16. REVOLUTION BABY!! And puts Hillary on the spot, BIG TIME!!! nt

[haikugal]

14. Woohoo!! Go Bernie Go!!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

17. I never saw a "trump" card like that coming! nt

[haikugal]

18. Ha!! This is awesome!!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

19. And all they have so far in response is "Bernie has no plan blah blah wah wah...", ROFL! nt

[Segami]

20. The path is crystal clear for Hillary Clinton....

Last edited Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:19 AM - Edit history (1)

"...Democratic super-delegates remain unpledged until the Democratic National Convention, any Democratic candidate wishing to clinch the Democratic nomination prior to the Convention — a privilege, not a right — is forced to do so via pledged delegates alone. .."

Well, there you have it.....nothing is stopping Hillary Clinton from trying to win 2383 pledged delegates by June 25th..........EXCEPT Bernie & voter support!

If anything, maybe we should ask Hillary to DROP OUT since she cannot garner the necessary pledged delegates in order to win the Democratic nomination.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

21. They are dumbfounded right now. They're going to need a chance to gather their thoughts! nt

[Segami]

22. They're contacting home base for further instructions.....time lag...lol!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

23. Well, they have to all go back up to the mothership. Space travel takes time...

[Zira]

50. +1

[pdsimdars]

72. I've been saying she should drop out for a while now.

Her negatives are too high. She does worse against the GOP candidates in the GE. She is under SERIOUS investigation by the FBI. Her positions on the issues are those of the GOP. And she is a serial liar. SHE CAN'T WIN in the GE. For the good of the party and the country she should gracefully "spend more time with her family."

[TMontoya]

24. More delusion from Abramson

Is this the new talking point? This artificial threshold of needing to reach enough pledged delegates? Fact is the supers aren't supporting Sanders, period. He is losing in every catagory and Hillary has a commanding lead in delegates. This idea is completely laughable and devoid of any reality.

[4nic8em]

26. Here's your laughable part...

It's only devoid of reality if she (or Bernie) reaches 2383 pledged delegates prior to the convention. It matters not, how much she (or Bernie) leads in anything...except pledged delegates to the tune of 2383 prior to the convention. In short, Bernie and Hillary are BOTH very unlikely to meet the 2383 pledged delegate threshold prior to the convention. Nice twist huh?

[TMontoya]

28. Irrelevant

The supers are not switching. Period. She is now the presumptive nominee.

[4nic8em]

32. I suggest

that you try reading the original post in it's entirety. It should make more sense if you try...

[JDPriestly]

36. It would not be wise to count Hillary's chickens before they hatch.

I have a feeling this could be a year for big surprises.

Bernie will stay in because those of us who support him want him to. Anything can happen between now and the convention, and we want Bernie.

Bernie or Bust . . . . .

Let's see what happens at the convention.

[TMontoya]

43. Not happening sorry

Hillary is the presumptive nominee. Bernie will likely be covered in the media as a failed candidate.

[TM99]

52. Hillary has been the presumptive nominee

for over two years. And that damned pesky democratic socialist just keeps fucking up her coronation.

He will keep fucking it up until she unravels as she always does.

[bvf]

56. ^That right there!

[Segami]

57. +1...Pesky indeed!

[Peace Patriot]

55. The Corrupt Media have been treating him like a failed candidate since...

...he started his campaign for president.



And Clinton can be as "presumptive" as her heart desires, but if she can't get the delegates for a 1st round vote at the convention, she ain't.

You think just repeating this crapola makes it real? THAT is unicorns, it seems to me.

[bjo59]

46. Damn straight.

[Marr]

87. In saying that, you're arguing against the very system you're depending on.

It's very odd.

That's not how super delegates are supposed to work, and you know it. They're supposed to be uncommitted until the convention, but you're openly saying they're just a thumb on the scale for the establishment.

[TheDormouse]

89. "The supers are not switching" -- Let's go to the videotape

2008:

Hillary Clinton is starting to lose her overwhelming lead in superdelegates, the Democratic party officials whose votes she is counting on to help her close the gap with Barack Obama. He has received a steady flow of backers in recent days while building a streak of 11 straight primary victories. After once leading Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio in the superdelegate chase, Clinton now has 241 to his 181, according to the latest Associated Press tally.

Most unnerving for Clinton is the trickle of superdelegates who have defected from her corner to Obama's. The shift comes as she failed to deliver a telling blow on him in their penultimate TV debate before the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/23/uselections2008.barackobama

But I guess that doesn't matter because in the end Hillary won that election.
--oh, wait

[Segami]

25. If Bernie doesn't have a path, neither does Hillary

Last edited Thu Apr 21, 2016, 02:42 AM - Edit history (1)

"...Meanwhile, whatever your view of how democracy should work — with super-delegates or without them; via primaries or caucuses or a mix of both; in closed or open primaries; with weeks of early voting or no early voting at all — you can agree, as a first principle, behind the “veil of ignorance”, with the idea that super-delegates should not come into play in an election cycle until the moment they cast their vote at the Democratic National Convention.

Which is exactly how Bernie Sanders is proceeding.

Sanders and Clinton are both stuck with a system that requires them to get 2,383 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination...."

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders BOTH don't have a path to 2383 pledged delegates by June 25th. So why do we keep hearing from the same Hillary-water-carriers that Bernie should drop out? She hasn't and won't secure 2383 pledged delegates by June 14th either.....doesn't that make her quite the weak candidate for not being able to close the deal with pledged delegates?

[winter is coming]

27. Perhaps we should start a countdown, to see how long it will take one of the

TV pundits to mention this...

[ChisolmTrailDem]

31. Hell, let's start a countdown to see how long it will take a Hillary supporter to make a...

...comment about this. If they (and Hillary) are the progressives they claim to be, they should be all for this. But, funny, I don't see their support for it.

[Demsrule86]

33. Not True

She has the most pledged delegates and the supers will save us from a brokered convention..he lost and that it folks.

[restorefreedom]

62. it better be a clock with a reaaaally long life battery :) nt

[winter is coming]

63. Uh oh.

I'm already using that to time the release of Hillary's speech transcripts.

[restorefreedom]

64. and the battery hasn't crapped out yet?

i am impressed...must be an energizer


here...take a whole pack....got a feelng you'll need it

[Matt_R]

88. I recommend an 12v Optima car battery with a voltage regulator. You may need it.

[Segami]

35. When Hillary arrives to the June 25th convention without

the necessary 2383 pledged delegates needed to clinch the democratic nomination, what democratic nomination procedures do Hillary Clinton supporters agree should transpire?

[winter is coming]

38. Psst -- it's July 25th.

That's right... three months away.

[Segami]

41. Thanks....

I wrote someone's birthday down instead....lol!

[winter is coming]

45. Dropping a hint isn't going to get you any more presents.

[Beacool]

37. Abramson is as delusional as Goodman.

A) The super delegates are not going to switch to the candidate who is behind on both pledged delegates and the popular vote. B) He is nuts if he thinks that Sanders will have the power to demand the elimination of the super delegate system. C) He's beyond delusional if he thinks that it would be up to Hillary to appoint Sanders Senate Minority Leader.

[Segami]

40. Ok Brock,...thanks for the bump!

[Beacool]

44. Sometime before the end of the year I hope that you realize that Sanders will not be the nominee.

Reality bites.......

[mythology]

58. Do you have anything other than name calling?

I mean really, pretty much every post you make in this is calling other people names. It says a lot about who you are.

[Segami]

61. No,..I don't...but it says a lot about who YOU are.

Carry on ....

[Segami]

39. If you think the 2016 Dem primary is really like the 2008 Clinton vs. Obama redux....

...you're in for a very rude awakening!

[madokie]

47. I'm in this all the way to the end

I'll be supporting Sanders.

As I implied earlier in a reply, I'm a person of convictions and I live my convictions, come hell or high water I stay the course

[Zira]

48. Thank you for this!

Excellent.

[Uncle Joe]

49. That's a sound analysis.

Thanks for the thread, Segami.

[Zynx]

51. I don't think I've read something this divorced from reality for years

Last edited Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:57 AM - Edit history (1)

After next week, when he loses PA, MD, DE, and probably CT, almost all of the super delegates will pile on behind Hillary. Bernie has already lost one or two who had previously backed him. They will make it clear that their support is firm. The general discussion will be why the race is over with so little of the country left to vote.

This will boost Hillary's polling in most remaining States and the pressure will basically turn Sanders's campaign into a dead man walking. Sometime even before DC, Hillary will actually be at the public figure of 2383 due to these factors. Everyone will call this thing over.

[TM99]

53. Did 538 give you this?

I mean they and y'all have sucked about predicting her inevitable win now for how long? I think it has been almost 2 years!

[Zynx]

54. And it's still true. Amazing how it keeps unfolding.

[SidDithers]

60. Seth Abaramson is the new HA Goodman...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

Hillary Clinton has won 1447 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders has won 1204 pledged delegates

There are 4051 pledged delegates available in 2016.
A majority of pledged delegates would be 2026.

There have been 2651 pledged delegates allocated to date.
There are 1400 pledged delegates still to be allocated.

Hillary needs 579 of the remaining 1400 = 41.4%
Bernie needs 822 of the remaining 1400 = 58.7%

Sid

[Segami]

69. Best you check your numbers...

[SidDithers]

70. I provided a link to my numbers, Segami...

show me where they're wrong.

I'll wait.

Sid

[Segami]

73. 2027 vs. 2383

To become the Democratic nominee, a candidate will need the support of 2,383 of the 4,764 delegates in Philadelphia this summer. But while each delegate has only one vote, not all delegates are created equal. There are pledged delegates, who make up about 85 percent of the total, and there are superdelegates, who make up the remaining 15 percent. The former are awarded based on the results of primaries and caucuses, and are required to vote for their assigned candidate. The latter are Democratic lawmakers and other party bigwigs who get to vote for whomever they want when the time comes, regardless of whom they’ve previously said they’ll support. (No one said it’s a fair system, but it is the system.)

And therein lies the crux of Bernie’s case. Since superdelegates are free to change their mind as many times as they want before the convention, the only way Hillary can say 100 percent, beyond-any-shadow-of-a-doubt that she has locked up the nomination is if she wins 2,383 pledged delegates during the primary season. That requires a candidate to win roughly 59 percent of all of the non-super delegates, a high bar given states assign those delegates proportionally. (Unlike on the GOP side, there are no winner-take-all or even winner-take-most states for Democrats.)

~snip~

Here’s what the overall delegate count (including superdelegates) looks like as of Wednesday morning:

~snip~

Clinton has 1,428 pledged delegates—60 percent of the 2,383 needed to secure the nomination, and 70 percent of the 2,027 needed to claim a majority of all pledged delegates.

Sanders has 1,151 pledged delegates—48 percent of the 2,383 needed to secure the nomination, and 57 percent of the 2,027 needed to claim a majority of all pledged delegates.

Team Sanders (rather cleverly) is using the very existence of superdelegates to their advantage, arguing that Clinton can’t say 100 percent, beyond-any-shadow-of-a-doubt that she has locked up the nomination unless she wins 2,383 pledged delegates during the primary season. There are currently 1,474 pledged delegates still to be allocated according to the AP, which leaves Hillary with some more work to do to clear that higher bar:

Clinton needs to win 65 percent of the outstanding pledged delegates to reach 2,383, and 41 percent to reach 2,027.
Sanders needs to win 84 percent of the outstanding pledged delegates to reach 2,383, and 59 percent to reach 2,027.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/20/bernie_sanders_won_t_win_here_s_the_math.html

[SidDithers]

74. It appears you don't understand the difference between pledged delegates and unpledged delegates...

Sid

[Segami]

75. I do understand Sid....

...but it seems you don't understand the argument being put forth.......try leaving the insults aside.



2383 has always been the advertised magic number needed to win the Democratic nomination,...not 2026.

In all news casts and discussion forums, 2383 was the magic number required to win the Dem nomination.

I have never seen a 2026 pledged delegate finish line chart posted or discussed on any major news stations or print papers.

The golden number has always been 2383 (pledged or unpledged) delegates needed to win the Dem nomination.

[SidDithers]

80. No, just about everyone realizes...

that in a 2 person race, the candidate with the most pledged delegates is going to be the nominee. It's only a fantasy of the most ardent Bernie supporters (Abramson being one) that unpledged delegates will vote en masse for a candidate that's behind in the pledged delegate count.

Bernie's only road to the nomination is to win the pledged delegate race. That's simply the truth.



But hey, if you want to include superdelegates, then the numbers are even worse for Bernie.

Again, from http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

There are 479 Superdelegates committed to Hillary
There are 40 Superdelegates committed to Bernie.

Hillary's total is 1447 + 479 = 1996
Bernie's total is 1204 + 40 = 1244

There are 3240 pledged and unpledged delegates committed.
There are 4765 total pledged and unpledged delegates, leaving 1525 uncommitted.

These are soft totals, and subject to change.

Hillary needs 2383 - 1996 = 387 to clinch
Bernie needs 2383 - 1244 = 1139 to clinch

Hillary needs 387 / 1525 = 25.4%
Bernie needs 1139 / 1525 = 74.7%


Simple math.

Sid

[workinclasszero]

83. Seth Abaramson is the new HA Goodman...

So more delusional comedy posts from crazed sanders fans, cool!

[Tarc]

68. I thought the conventional wisdom here was that the supers should vote for...

...whoever gets the most pledged delegates?

Is there a desperate faction within Camp Sanders now that wants the supers to vote for him, even if he enters the convention trailing Hillary?

[dchill]

76. What an excellent article!

[BlueStateLib]

77. Obama was 352 pledged delegates short in 2008 primary

2008 Delegate Count (2,118 Needed to Win)

Pledged Delegates -
Obama 1766.5
Clinton 1639.5

[Codeine]

81. Remember that huge convention floor fight?!

Oh wait, me neither. Nothing will come of this teeth-gnashing bullshit.

[Gothmog]

85. The super delegates will not be supporting Sanders

The analysis in this article is really amusing

[TheDormouse]

90. K&R

[sabrina 1]

91. Thank you, Hillary is nowhere near clinching this nomination. The are including the Super Delegates

to try to fool people, because they constantly insult the intelligence of the average voter. She has a LONG WAY TO GO before she can claim she has that nomination

And how dare they try to stop the Democratic process voters deserve and have a right to.

The lies that were being spread around that he was going to quit etc, those are DIRTY TRICKS. Thankfully because his supporters know he is an honorable man no one fell for that.

Go Bernie, he is determined to expose it all and so are we. And the sooner they stick to the issues and accept the fact that process is going to proceed no matter how 'fed up' Hillary is with it, the better for them, and it will save them a whole lot of that corporate money they are wasting spreading smears and lies.

[amborin]

92. K&R