Romney ready to concede Ohio?

[Floyd_Gondolli]

Huff Po (yes, I know) had an interesting story on the Republicans apparently coming to grips that in all probability Ohio is lost and they now view Wisconsin as the most favorable flip in the upper Midwest states.

But giving Romney Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina it still leaves him at 267.

I don't see how Obama loses a legitimate election in Wisconsin either. From what I gather on the tubes Wisconsin is probably home to their best GOTV machine, and Shark Eyes is a native but Wisconsin has been reliably Democratic for many years.

The GOP will also point to the Walker recall as a sign they can win there, however that was a product of people showing up to vote against the concept of a recall as much as it was some kind of overwhelming support for Walker.

I guess the bottom line is this demonstrates how brutal the math is for them.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/2012/10/26/mitt-romney-2012-campaign_n_2026484.html?icid=hp_front_top_art

[silvershadow]

1. I put NOTHING past the neo-cons. I won't even be exhaling until after it's over. n/t

[Tigress DEM]

4. I hear that. nt

[Third Doctor]

7. I agree

[sandyshoes17]

13. Same here

I wont breath deep until this is over. I dont trust these guys. This isn't 2008. I honestly believe they didn't cheat that one. They didn't care for McCain much and the country was shit, this is different, they will do whatever to get back in power.

[smorkingapple]

2. Pulling out of OH would signal he's given up, no way he does that, esp when he has the money

This is the consequence of Citizens United. These guys will play in states far longer than they would back in the day. They can afford to keep up the appearance even if they know it's not gonna happen.

[davidpdx]

6. +1

I don't see Romney conceding any of the swing states. It might be different if the outside money were more controlled like back in 2008.

[kevink077]

20. the only one they may concede

is Nevada. Nevada is slipping away from the GOP and fast. The rest they will play in until the end. I do think Romney's play in Minnesota is more of a bluff. Maybe they have extra cash to piss away?

[davidpdx]

23. Minnesota seems like a poor choice if I was on the other side

But then again I don't have all the information.

[TroyD]

38. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since Nixon in 1972

It's not voting for Romney.

[krawhitham]

29. NV +2.5 Obama - OH +2.3 Obama

He is not losing NV that much faster than OH

[graham4anything]

8. Bob Dole, Barry Goldwater, Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis all thought they would win too

Mitt has lost.
period.

it was over months ago, it is over today.

nothing has changed in the numbers at all

[Cosmocat]

40. It looks REAL good right now

but, he really did make a BIG and REAL push post first debate, but he fell short, and BO has some slight momentum his way now. Not sure that, with good economic indicators continuing to pop up, there is anything that can redirect the momentum either way at this point.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

15. True that. nt

[Phx_Dem]

24. Yes, if he concedes Ohio, its over. Nearly impossible for Mitt without Ohio.

He's not ahead in enough swing states to win w/o Ohio.

[BlueStreak]

25. He can't publicly admit giving up on OH, I agree with that. But ...

At some point if the campaign doesn't see the numbers they need in Ohio, it is possible that they would have better odds willing FL, WI, CO, NC, VA and one of these: IA or NH.

Romney is close or ahead in FL, VA, CO, and NC. SO it really boils down to this:

Which is easier to win: Ohio or WI + NH or WI + IA?

It could very well turn out that one of the Wisconsin scenarios is a lot more realistic than Ohio. And if that is the Romney reality, they will shift gears by next Tuesday, especially if they keep seeing the OH early votes add up.

[yellowcanine]

3. Romney can't give up on Ohio. Because of that brutal math. And if he does he is going to have a

lot of pissed off Republicans and not just in Ohio. It would affect Republican morale not only in Ohio - where it could be devastating for down ticket races - but also elsewhere.

[pointsoflight]

11. Yep, they don't have any choice but to stick it out.

Even if they think it's a long shot and look more strongly at other paths, publicly they have to keep fighting in OH, not only because it'd be hard to win without Ohio, but also because it would deflate the base.

[BlueStreak]

26. Yes they do. See post #25.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

12. I don't think the implication

Was that they would pull out of the state as far as TV and ground game, but rather they are coming to the realization that they are probably going to lose there.

The next question would be where else would they look for EC votes. Apparently they may believe that may be Wisconsin and presumably New Hampshire.

All of that is a very uphill climb and means they could have an awesome night but still come up short.

Personally I don't see Obama with less than 300 EC votes when all is said and done.

[yellowcanine]

16. Oh they will fight hard in Wisconsin, NH, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, NC and Florida as well.

No doubt about it. But the closer we get to Election Day the harder it is going to be to move numbers much. Particularly where there is early voting but not just there. All of these states are in play for Obama for a reason and it actually has little to do with the campaigns or what happened in the debates. It is more about demographics, Obama's favorability ratings, and Lichtman's keys.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

19. Precisely

Which is why we scream at the TV when Blitzer calls a 4 pt lead in Ohio a tie. That is a substantial lead for where we are with this race.

[yellowcanine]

22. A four point lead might be a "tie" if it were just that one poll. But nearly every other recent

poll is showing an Obama lead so the MOE of one poll is not as important. If five polls have the same leader but all five polls are within the MOE the race is not tied.

[cheezmaka]

5. I won't exhale until it's over either...

I am glad Obama has the upper hand! I'm still not gonna take things for granted...

[speedoo]

9. They would never admit to conceding Ohio.

It's basically conceding the election.

[scheming daemons]

36. No, it actually isn't. Romney could win FL-VA-NC-CO-WI-NH and get to 271

He is tied or ahead in the first four listed.... and WI and NH are close.


It's an inside straight, but Romney could get there without Ohio.

[speedoo]

43. If he loses Ohio, he also loses Wisconsin.

And winning VA, CO and NH is in itself an inside straight.

[Panasonic]

45. Colorado has rejected Rmoney

And Obama is +5 on the latest polls to come out of Colorado.

So please do not count Colorado among Rmoney's states. We wholly reject Rmoney and want Obama back for his second term.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

10. I don't see how they can.

The voter enthusiasm would tank for the R's if they did. It could cause major down ticket damage.

I really believe, even if they are admitting it to themselves, there's no way they will do that.

Without Ohio they're toast. Think about how many R's won't bother to go to the polls if the 'big' race is irrelevant? That's why they're going to keep up the lies, bluster and bullshit.

[MadBadger]

14. In that 267 scenario, where is new hampshire

[Floyd_Gondolli]

17. With Obama

I would presume it would be the next most favorable for Romney if he couldn't win Ohio. If they did quietly write off Ohio they would have to have NH along with Wisconsin, Co, Fl, NC and Va. To win. Very very difficult.

Iowa is solid for Obama IMO. Same for NV.

[BlueStreak]

27. Exactly. At some point they may decide that has better odds

See post #25.

This is not all about Ohio.

It is only all about Ohio if Wisconsin is solid Obama. But Wisconsin is in play. That takes Ohio out of the "must win" category.

And you saw Biden in Wisconsin today. I predict we'll see both campaigns heavy in Wisconsin next week.

[Thrill]

18. I live in NC. They better not think they have this state won

[Floyd_Gondolli]

21. I hear you

When this is over, for all of the billions spent, they may succeed in only flipping Indiana. I would probably put your state as next most likely but with the turnout in early voting even that Thought seems generous for Romney.

And by the way I'm not ready to give up on Indiana either. Yeah, Obama was close in some of the last 2008 polls but I recall a couple that had him down by 5 or 6 there in the days before the election. Let's see how it looks 10 days from now before we chalk it up to a GOP flip especially given the chaos of their Senate race.

[MSMITH33156]

28. I actually believe this

because it gels with something I noted earlier this week. We were all wondering why Romney was spending so much time in Nevada, a state that most people think is gone (even Republicans off the record say so). It's because he is desperate. If Obama wins OH, IA, and NV, the election is over. Romney has lost Ohio, so he knows he is basically screwed. He has to win 2 out of 3 of NV, IA and WI, and then win every other swing state, and then he will win. Otherwise he is done. So, even though it a long shot, he is trying to peel of Nevada and Wisconsin, then miraculously run the table.

But his real plan and his only plan right now is to win:

WI
NV
CO
VA
NC
NH
VA
FL

That will get Romney to 273 and barely a win. But I can't believe no one has mentioned the real reason for this. Romney is legitimately behind and in big trouble in OH, IA, WI and NV. He obviously could lose a lot more states and can't afford to even lose those 4.

But then why give up on OH and IA? If you are going for a long shot, why not go for the biggest one (Ohio)? Because he already lost Ohio and Iowa. The early voting totals slammed him. Look at the early voting dates:

Iowa: Sept 27 - Nov 5
Ohio: Oct 2 - Nov 5

but Wisconsin and Nevada

Nevada: Oct 20 - Nov 2
Wisconsin: Oct 22 - Nov 2

He spent time in Nevada and is going hard in Wisconsin because he knows he is losing those 4 states right now, and with it the election, but because Ohio and Iowa have been early voting for so long, he has ALREADY lost those 2. Iowa and Ohio have been voting for a month. Wisconsin has been voting for 5 days, Nevada for 7. So Romney has no choice but to pray for a miracle in 2 states where he is also way behind, but where Obama hasn't already had several weeks of just whipping Romney in vote totals.

He is not going to pull out of Ohio, but he is basically looking at ways to win without Ohio and Iowa, 2 states that he has lost because of early voting.

[JiminyJominy]

30. Uhh Helloo????

i've been saying this for like 3 days now in various other threads!

can i get some credit for beating HuffPo to this?!

My Big Prediction Earlier This Week Which I am Sticking By: By middle of next week if a consensus of polls show Romney down 4-5 points still, he WILL pull out of Ohio to concentrate on other winnable states that can get him to 271. WI, CO, VA, FL, and NH get him to 270. (assuming NC goes Red and Iowa and Nevada go blue).

its common sense and if he chooses to stay in Ohio, he chooses then to forfeit the election basically. in all 5 of the above states polls show him within striking distance. i'm telling you guys...its the plan that makes the most sense (IF Ohio still has a solid margin by middle of next week that is).

and to be clear, when i say "WILL pull out of Ohio" I mean a very discrete pull, not one that will be announced but just a redistribution of resources, time, and money. a lot of people may not even notice it.

[abumbyanyothername]

32. WI, CO, VA, FL, and NH get him to 270

The odds against that are over 150:1 against.

A better play would be to go after PA, which has no early voting and hope for a hurricane. Or MI. The MN play may also make sense in this regard as a backup for WI.

But all of these strategies fail compared to any reasonable evaluation of the chances in OH. So unless they are deadpan certain of losing OH + one of IA, NV or NH+1 (NE1, for example), they have to fight for OH.

In the end they are going to get steamrolled with Obama > 300 EVs. But they are running out of things to do . . . except pay themselves bonuses, I guess.

[Jennicut]

34. I give you credit!

I have read your previous posts. And you are right. Romney is going to get desperate now.

The thing is, WI is polling at about the same as IA and OH. All of them are about 3 to 4 points behind on Pollster at Huff Post. CO and VA are in play and those need to be states Romney has leads in. Only Rasmussen has CO as Romney up by any significant amount. The rest of the recent CO polls are ties or Obama slightly ahead. Romney is ahead in only two states in the average polling: FL and NC. And he needs a lot more then that. Its not looking good for Mittens.

[LukeFL]

35. I do remember your thread predicting

This scenario. I thought it was possible but nevertheless unlikely because all polls indicated Romney had it in the bag. That Alone had me confused.

I must say you're a genius.

[GallopingGhost]

31. I don't think Romney

has a prayer in Wisconsin. Hope I'm right!

[abumbyanyothername]

33. About 1 in 7

or 6:1 dog.

[TroyD]

37. Wisconsin hasn't voted Republican since the Reagan landslide in 1984

Although as always, you always have to be careful to keep an eye on the Republicans.

Wisconsin was close in 2000 & 2004.

[WI_DEM]

39. They may try but they will not win Wisconsin, though it will be close--probably by 2% for Obama

[TroyD]

41. 2% Why will it be that close?

Doesn't that indicate there has been a lot of erosion since 2008?

Nate Silver has Obama up by about 4% in Wisconsin.

How is Tammy Baldwin looking, btw?

[Panasonic]

46. Baldwin is +10 now.

Thompson has no chance.

[DCBob]

42. Without OH I dont see how they win at all.

I think they have to keep battling and hoping for a miracle or its over.

[Panasonic]

44. Rmoney will not get any swing states

All he will get is his usual 157 redstate votes, and the rest is gone.

Indiana and Arizona are going to be the surprise states that turns blue.

Missouri is a long shot, but doable.

[Phx_Dem]

48. I seriously doubt AZ will turn blue. However, if Hispanics

vote in large numbers, it could be very close! I work downtown and groups of Hispanics have been protesting (very loudly) almost daily for the past 5-6 years -- mostly about Sheriff Arpaio who's office is in my building. Protesting is fine, but only VOTING will get Arpaio out of office and help Democrats gain seats! We'll see if they put their ballot where their mouth is.

I'm not convinced because they didn't seem to do much voting in 2010.

[Arugula Latte]

56. It makes me happy that these fucksticks will have to start viewing Arizona as a swing state soon.

Think back not very long ago when it was unthinkable for Colorado or New Mexico to go blue. Those big square/rectangle mountain states were nothing if not reliably Republican.

Oh, times have changed and how sweet it is!

[Phx_Dem]

47. He better not hang his hat on Colo either. Of the last 8 polls, he's ahead in only one.

And, of course, it's right-leaning Rassussen.

PPP * 10/25
49.0
46.0
Obama +3.0

Purple Strategies 10/25
47.0
46.0
Obama +1.0

Grove 10/24
46.0
43.0
Obama +3.0

Keating Research 10/24
48.0
45.0
Obama +3.0

NBC/Marist 10/24
48.0
48.0
Tie


Rasmussen 10/21
46.0
50.0
Romney +4.0

PPP * 10/18
49.0
44.0
Obama +5.0

Grove 10/16
47.0
44.0
Obama +3.0

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Panasonic]

51. And we know that with Ras, it's an automatic +4 [DEMOCRATIC] to whatever poll they come up with.

So it kinds of meets all the other polls, actually.

[NewJeffCT]

49. The GOP super-pacs still have a gazillion dollars

and I'm sure they can spare a few million more to spread lies in Ohio...

[AlinPA]

50. They can flood the mail with mailers and newspaper ads for Romney, but it's getting late

for them to pay for GOTV efforts (hiring people, organizing). They will have to dump their money directly into Romney's existing ground game. That's illegal, but who can stop them if they win? It would be too late then.

[Panasonic]

52. Let them waste their millions.

It only shows that the Republicans are betting on the wrong nag.

And more reason why Citizens United has to cease being the law of the land.

[Maximumnegro]

53. The gazillion dollars meme is overblown

Only 10 days to go. Time is finite, ad space is finite, interest is finite and because of early voting available voters are finite.

The O campaign is smartly using the cash advantage angle to motivate supporters, but ultimately there is not much a gazillion can do in 10 days if it wasn't able to do it all along. It's money, but it's not magic.

[DFW]

54. No, he isn't ready to concede Ohio

They will rely on electoral fraud if they can't rely on a legitimate victory at the polls, but the Republicans can't concede Ohio without conceding the election. Anything else is trying to lure us into a false sense of complacency.

At any rate, I think the prize Rove is really after is the Senate. The White House would just be a bonus.

[Drunken Irishman]

55. I think Romney is close to taking the McCain path...

McCain at one point in 2008 realized the electoral math wasn't adding up and that he would need to flip an Obama state to win. If Ohio doesn't move in the next few days toward a tie, or Romney lead, I wouldn't be surprised if the campaign focused on Wisconsin instead. Yes, the belief is he can't win without Ohio. However, sticking with Ohio isn't going to get him anywhere if the electorate doesn't budge these next few days.

Basically, it might be smarter to throw your resources into Wisconsin and Iowa in hopes of picking off those states to make up for the lost electoral votes in Ohio. I don't think it'll work, but what does he get out of staying in Ohio? Every day lost is another day he's trampled by early voting. The fact is, Romney really only has until Wednesday or Thursday to show movement in Ohio. By that point, if he's still down 2-6 points, he might have no choice but to go all in on Wisconsin.

This is why Romney has always been at a disadvantage in this campaign. He's forced to play defense in a lot of states, whereas Obama still gets to pick and choose which states he goes after. Obama could concede Florida, North Carolina and Virginia and still have a healthy electoral college map. Romney can't concede any of those three.

[MSMITH33156]

58. He is focusing on NV,IA and WI

to offset OH. He needs 2 of the 3. IA is likely already lost with the early vote, though, but he will keep pushing, because they have same day registration. So does Wisconsin.

The reason he is "giving up" on Ohio to focus on those 3 is the actual voting rules.

-Ohio is already lost because the registration is locked in (deadline passed), so they know the makeup of the voting electorate. They also have been early voting for almost a month. They see the statistics, and Romney knows it is over.

-Wisconsin just started early voting last Monday, so there is less locked in votes. Wisconsin also allows same day registration, so Romney has a chance to change the electorate, register new voters, and shift the makeup of the voters that are eligible to vote.

-Nevada just started voting last Saturday, so less of the votes are locked in.

-Iowa has been early voting for over a month, and those are obviously locked in, so Romney is WAY behind. But there is same day registration, so Romney can still try to change the electorate.

He is just as likely in terms of makeup, demographics, and campaign to lose all 4 of those. But the reason he punts on Ohio is because of the statewide voting rules. With a long early voting period and with no opportunity to register new voters, that race is ALREADY lost. The other 3 are also long shots, but at least there is a chance to do something.

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

57. obama is using the four corner offense .mitt runs from one corner to the other

mitt can not win, its simple no need to get worried ,just as long as you remain alert. remember the golden rule i will do no evil,but i not let you do evil to me . i am confident ,we have competent people running our campaign. the trend lines are in our favor .along as we know we are doing our best.