Rand Poll 10/26/12 Obama leads Romney...

[courseofhistory]

Election Forecast (approx 50% O 44% R)

The Election Forecast provides our best forecast of the popular vote based on the responses that panelists provided in the past week. The gray band indicates if the difference between the estimates for the two candidates is statistically significant. If the lines for Obama and Romney lie outside the gray band, then with at least 95-percent confidence we can say that one candidate would win the election if on election day the citizens vote as they now anticipate. It is important to note that if the lines are within the gray band then the observed differences may be due to chance.

It is also important to note that the predictions combine the percent chance of voting for a candidate with the percent chance that a respondent will actually vote. For example, if someone says in response to the first question that he or she has a 50-percent chance of actually voting, then this person's response to the question of who they will vote for gets a “weight” of 50 percent in the calculation of our prediction (which is then further weighted by the percent chance that he or she says that they are likely to vote for their chosen candidate).

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Why This Poll Is Different

First, it allows us to ask the same people for their opinion repeatedly over time. In comparison to most polls, this leads to much more stable outcomes; changes that we see are true changes in people's opinions and not the result of random fluctuations in who gets asked the questions.

Second, we may be more accurately capturing the likely votes of a greater number of voters in the crucial “middle” (i.e., not closely aligned with either candidate) by allowing respondents to more precisely assign their own numerical probability (or percent chance) to both the likelihood that they will vote and the likelihood that they will vote for a particular candidate. By comparison, traditional polls may not be fully capturing the intentions of these voters because they rely on less precise qualitative metrics (such as somewhat likely and somewhat unlikely) when asking respondents to indicate for whom they may vote and the likelihood that they will vote.

Read more at link for more details:

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

[Justice4All1]

1. Great news

Doing good, the better man, heck, the only man in the race is winning.

[Democratopia]

2. My fear is this poll is accurate

And Gallup, Rasmssen and a few others are setting us up for a stolen election.

[Maximumnegro]

3. Yeah, no. Not going to happen. First Af-Am President

of the US who also taught Constitutional law? I am pretty sure he's prepared for all scenarios.

[TroyD]

4. Is this tonight's update?

Or is this the one that was posted last night?

I know that 24 hours ago the one I saw had Obama at 50% and Romney at 44%.

[abumbyanyothername]

5. The other tabs are even more interesting

especially the intention to vote and the switched vote (% of sample that moves from week to week from Romney to Obama or from Obama to Romney).

[Maximumnegro]

6. This is a day old. They release at 1am.