In case anyone is stumped about what swing states we need to win after Ohio goes Obama

[blazeKing]

With Obama winning Ohio he needs either

1. Wisconsin + either Nevada or Iowa ..(New Hampshire would make it 269 or a tie = Romney Presidency)
2. Virginia + either Nevada or Iowa or New Hampshire
3. North Carolina
4. Florida
5. Nevada or Iowa + Colorado
6. Nevada + New Hampshire + Iowa


Without Ohio, it becomes more difficult but not insurmountable

http://www.270towin.com/

[abumbyanyothername]

1. And as I said in the other thread

NH + Nebraska's Omaha Congressional District.

[blazeKing]

2. Good point!

Did we win that last time?

[abumbyanyothername]

3. Yes.

But I have not seen any polls this time.

[Tx4obama]

10. Here is the last poll

Nebraska 2nd Congressional District

Omaha World Herald

September 17 – 20, 2012

Barack Obama 44% - Mitt Romney 44%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Nebraska

[TroyD]

12. Nebraska's Omaha Congressional District

There were 1 or 2 polls on it earlier in the year, and Obama had a shot at winning it, but in recent months it seems to have eroded in Nate Silver's predictions model. He has it at 78% chance of Romney winning right now I think.

One of the reasons is because the Republicans re-districted the demographics in the area after 2008 to make it more difficult for him to win it again in 2012.

[shcrane71]

22. How did Repugs redistrict the area?

Did they lump in North O with rural parts of northeastern Nebraska, and South O with Sarpy County?

[abumbyanyothername]

24. Pretty much impossible

There are three districts in NE. Omaha, Lincoln and everyone else.

[shcrane71]

26. I know. How did they redistrict Omaha's 2nd Congressional district?

I know there's 3 districts in Nebraska.

[abumbyanyothername]

27. From ballot-pedia

Under Senator Lautenbaugh, a slightly amended map was introduced on May 17, 2011, having passed the Redistricting Committee on a partisan vote.[56] Bellevue and Offut AFB were still transplanted from the 2nd to the eastern Nebraska 1st, with Sarpy County making the opposite switch.
Rich in Republicans, Sarpy's move to the 2nd changed the flavor of that swing district, potentially making it safe for Congressman Lee Terry and putting an end to the chance that any Democratic Presidential nominee could pick up one of Nebraska's electoral votes. Democrats lambasted it as illogical, unconstitutional, and "ripe for legal action".[57]
On Thursday, the 19th, the bill, LB 704, passed the first of three votes 32-8.[58][59]
Democrats attempted a filibuster to block the next round on of voting. Russ Karpisek led the effort on Monday, May 23, 2011; it lasted into the afternoon when Republicans managed to get enough members on the floor to end the veto. By 33-15, the minimum, the GOP broke the veto and then took the second of three votes on LB 704; Slightly amended to place all of Bellevue in the First District that passed 34-14.[60] Two Democrats, Annette Dubas and Kate Sullivan, crossed the aisle to cast aye votes.[61]
A handful of other votes were taken on Monday, including defeating Karpisek's proposal to fine-tune district boundaries to minimize population deviations on a 28-16 vote and rejecting a map drawn by the Legislative Research Office, officially non-partisan, 30-14.[62]
On May 24, 2011, Democrats made final attempts to amend the map by tweaking Omaha's suburbs.[63][64] That area is the most obvious choice for a court challenge, on the grounds of diluting minority influence. The Dems' amendment failed, though, 31-17.[65] After it was voted down, sponsor Bob Krist lamented of the version that still stood, "“It cuts, slices and dices Gretna up like something you’d see in a Ronco commercial".[66]
On Thursday, May 26, 2011, after brief technical glitches and request that the Governor's office return the legislative bill to allow a full reading, the third and final vote was taken.[67] The new districts passed, part of a parcel of bills addressing various political delineations,[68] and Governor Heineman signed them the same day.[69][70]

[defacto7]

4. kind of old stats

funny you put the .05% probability of a tie up at the top of the list....

[blazeKing]

5. Which means you aren't stumped so

Why are you replying to my thread?

[defacto7]

13. It's what we do here!

You can skirt the comment if you wish. We do that here too.

[Maximumnegro]

6. Well he has NV, so you can

narrow it down more.

[grantcart]

7. Nevada and Iowa are both looking very good in early voting

Any other state after that makes it past 270.

[budkin]

8. He won't lose Iowa or Wisconsin

[TroyD]

9. I think Nevada is stronger for Obama than Iowa

Although Iowa is looking pretty good.

[abumbyanyothername]

11. I don't think we can stop the GOTV or anything, but . . .

[link:][/link]

[CTyankee]

14. I really think NEvada is going to Obama and I have this hunch that CO is, too.

I never thought he could take NC and VA is iffy, but doable. New Hampshire should go to Obama. WI is iffy now IMO. Also Iowa...

[TroyD]

15. Isn't WI pretty solid?

It hasn't voted Republican since 1984.

And Bush barely won Iowa in 2004.

New Hampshire has also been trending more Democratic over the past 20 years. Bush barely won it in 2000.

[mucifer]

28. The shenanigans their are scary. Waukeshaw County election issues.

Remember?

[democrattotheend]

17. CO I don't feel as good about

Republicans have the edge in early voting, which Democrats had 4 years ago.

On the flip side, Obama won by 9 points in 2008, so he does have some breathing room.

[Jennicut]

18. WI is better then CO.

WI is polling about 4 points ahead for Obama in the average polling. CO has more registered Repubs then Dems. The early voting in CO is about Repubs 2 points ahead.

OH + WI + NV or IA is the best, easiest path for Obama. NH, CO and VA are buffers.

[CTyankee]

20. for some reason, I thought CO had a large Hispanic population...maybe I am thinking of another

state...

[Jennicut]

21. NV does.

I think CO has a good size Hispanic population as well but tends to run more conservative then NV.

[CTyankee]

23. OK, thanks...

[Phx_Dem]

25. According to Nate, when a candidate has a 2.5% or better polling avg 10 days

Before the election, he always wins the state -- based on past elections. interesting analysis posted on 538 today!

[davidpdx]

16. I look it as there the most likely places things will flip back

and then work backwards from there. It depends on how you look at it.

I think NE 2nd CD and Indiana won't be won by Obama this time around. I also don't think there is any state he could pick up at this point (barring a major collapse by Romney).

NE -1
IN -11
Difference in EC for Census -6

That lowers it by 18 EV from the 2008 results. Certainly not a huge problem since there are so many states he's doing well in.

The good news is that would be 347. From that point, if the worst case scenario happened and we lost FL, NC, and OH Obama could still win with 285. I highly doubt that will happen though.

[BlueDemKev]

19. OH plus WI is a must; plus either IA or NV...

...that will put us at 271 electoral votes.

GET OUT THE VOTE IN OH, WI, IA, and NV!!!!

We cannot lose UNLESS our voters don't make it to the polls!