Reports from the ground in CA

[basselope]

My wife did some voter registration today and then we spent the day out and about, her wearing her hat with Bernie Sanders stickers on it.

VERY interesting stuff.

#1 question asked: Do you think he can still win? Answer: Well, if we show up and vote him.. HELL YEAH!

#2 observation: The VAST majority of people who approached us excited about the Bernie sticker on her hat.. not millennials. Average age was well 50+. My wife is in her early 40s and the women she was paired with for canvasing was in her 60s. Yeah, the millennials are the no brainers, but I was shocked at the number of people you would be led to believe are "Clinton Voters" coming up to us and saying "Love the hat" who thumbs uping the Bernie sticker.

#3 observation: Not a SINGLE HRC person trying to register voters or doing any type of outreach. Not a single sticker, bumper sticker, yard sign.. NOTHING. But, to me the "surprise" (not really) was that they are making NO EFFORT at all to register voters.

If they REALLY cared about down ticket elections, wouldn't that be step 1???

In short, Bernie's support in California is wide and deep and yes, he has a path to victory... people just need to actually show up and vote.

[MattP]

1. No cal or So cal?

I haven't seen one Bernie sticker where I live in So cal so I think it's a No cal thing and I would assume he will crush it up north and she will carry the south and inland empire.

[Gwhittey]

4. Is So cal

Where offices are that Set Record the Straight SuperPac is running the internet campaign out of?

[CaliforniaPeggy]

12. I'm in SoCal and I've seen a few Bernie stickers, but NO Hillary signs of any kind.

NO bumper stickers, NO yard signs, nothing.

[rufus dog]

27. I'm in the OC

Almost nothing, a few Bernie stickers, and one Trump. Strange how little I have seen.

[basselope]

37. So Cal... Santa Monica to be specific.

I see Bernie stickers EVERYWHERE. Haven't seen a single Clinton sticker.

[passiveporcupine]

2. We are a diverse group from all over the country,

And the people I see here who are the most vocal about Bernie, are like me...old farts.

So why is this not happening all over the country? And if it is, what is happening to all those votes?

It's the people with money who want Hillary, and there aren't that many of them compared to us, so what gives?

Is it really the black vote or Hispanics that is keeping us down?

[OwlinAZ]

13. I think it is happening all over the country

I'm pushing 70. My liberal friends enthusiastically support Sanders. Those that support Hillary seem resigned to her at most.

[bkkyosemite]

22. "what is happening to all those votes?"....vote machine flipping.

[redstateblues]

30. I never saw one HRC bumper sticker in my state

And she beat Bernie by 30 points. HRCs supporters don't got to the big rallies

[Gwhittey]

3. They don't care about down ticket

Only thing that matters is getting Clinton the nomination. In 2008 there was a massive GOTV effort by the DNC starting in Nov of the year before. All through out the 2008 primaries they ran numerous GOTV drives at colleges. This time not so much because why would DWS want to get young people registered when they are actively trying to get many unregistered as we saw in NY. Some come July DNC only has 3 moths to get a voter drive going.

[redstateblues]

33. Bernie would be a disaster to down ballot Dems

Nobody want to be connected to the Socialist

[basselope]

38. LOL.

[MattP]

5. You think the DNC is trying to unregister people?

I feel sorry for you, you must have trust issues

[highprincipleswork]

8. Well, yes, I don't trust the DNC. They have already shown their hand, multiple times.

[Trajan]

35. Actually .. Yes

Many of us believe that state level Democratic Party organizations are actively DISENFRANCHISING Democrat Party voters ...

And frankly, I don't give a ..... what you think about that ...

Gone !

[ghostsinthemachine]

49. I looked up my registration the other dsy

Not registered. I even reregisteted two months ago. Same Addy and I've voted from this Addy before.

[BobSmith4152]

87. Find out! Check your registration status and (re)register as needed

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/registration-status/
http://registertovote.ca.gov/

[amborin]

6. Thanks to you and your wife and the others!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KingFlorez]

7. Clinton has a presence

I'm in a county that is narrowly Democratic in registration and a coordinator is already here organizing, she even spoke at my local Democratic club. The man who spoke for Sanders had to drive all the way up from Orange County.

[highprincipleswork]

9. Bernie can take California, & in a big way. Thank you for your work, and we all need to do likewise!

California has over twice as many delegates as New York.

[SFnomad]

14. California has LESS than twice the delegates in NY

Pledged delegates 247 v. 475
Total delegates 291 v. 548

More math issues, eh?

[highprincipleswork]

18. You know, those aren't the delegate totals I've seen, but you're right, a little less than half.

But more than enough to make up the difference, under the right conditions!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Info/delegates.html

[SFnomad]

21. Your link is certainly incorrect, being that it is pretty common knowledge that there are a total of

4766 delegates in the Democratic Primary (it used to be a few less, wonder what Democrat(s) won a contest that created a new Superdelegate(s)) ... and that it will take 2384 delegates to win the nomination.

Your link only shows 4483 delegates in the Democratic Primary. If that was true, Secretary Clinton would only be about 300 delegates away from the nomination and she's not that close ... yet. So your site is missing almost 300 delegates.

[highprincipleswork]

58. Whatever. My original point holds. CA has almost twice the delegates as NY, and w

That and other states Bernie and supporters have a purpose and a chance and I will be with them to the end.

Why you feel intellectually and morally superior supporting Hillary Clinton I will never understand.

[SFnomad]

62. You get awfully defensive when you get caught telling a lie n/t

[highprincipleswork]

76. I've got a good scene to watch, if you want.

Lighten up, wise up, quit feeling superior and supercilious (with an accent on the silly) about details, and if we manage to thrash your candidate I'll be glad. Otherwise, you'll be suffering along with the rest of us, as Climate Change for one thing decimates this human world.

Enjoy your day!

[SFnomad]

81. LOL, thrash my candidate? LOL

Yeah, like that's going to happen. BS is toast, stick a fork in him.

[highprincipleswork]

82. Like I say, enjoy your day. Later for you.

[SFnomad]

83. Buh bye n/t

[SFnomad]

25. Two more accurate links

Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

The Green Papers:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D
Below the main table is a list of links to the individual states (two letter abbreviations) that will tell you the delegate totals for each state.

Wikipedia is easier to read, but some people don't like Wikipedia so I gave you the other link. The two sites are usually no more than a delegate apart for any particular stat.

[2banon]

39. But we have more voters, when they turn out, n/t

[SFnomad]

43. BS has 2.5+ million fewer voters ... sounds like you have lots of work to do on that "turn out" n/t

[2banon]

50. You're saying that California has 2.5 million fewer voters than NY?

[SFnomad]

51. Where do you come up with things like that? Go ahead laugh yourself silly.

You're the one that stated that "we have more voters, when they turn out" ... well, so far in the entire primary season, BS is down by more than 2.5 million votes. Keep laughing while BS keeps losing.

[Bluenorthwest]

60. CA has low turnout but much higher than NY's....2014 CA 42% to NY's 29%

CA has some interesting turnout facts, low youth turnout, not so great Latino turnout.....interesting.

[2banon]

65. Yes.. exactly.

If memory serves, the 2008 election turnout was significantly higher than in most previous cycles. .

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I have found throughout the decades the numbers to be abysmally low, considering the stakes across the country including California. We may start to see a change in that regard, given the changes in demographics, but much remains to be seen.

One is compelled to come to certain conclusions, which comes down to voter apathy. When questioned, it turns out that the reason for "apathy" is not that people don't care, but they intuit the system is rigged, so why should they bother.

Before 2000 I used to argue vehemently the significance in every single vote. Boy, was I ever idealistic and naive.!

Can't believe it's been 16 years already, but it's been a hell of an education. I will continue to go through the process, it's the only thing that avails me the opportunity to officially express my preference, even though it's always questionable whether or not my vote will even be counted.

The fact that the presidential elections gets called before California has had their ballots counted really pisses me off, considering our population is an outrage. It also confirms the argument of a rigged system.

And now we have the disgusting specter of Hillary Supporters declaring victory before California's primary.

We have had an anti-democratic system in place since the birth of this nation, and it needs to be corrected.

It's way past time for a Political Revolution, and Citizens United is simply the latest but not the only element to be eliminated and abolished.

Hope I'm still around to see this take place.

[Corporate666]

10. what path?

Come Tuesday, he will be down ~300 delegates.

Are you predicting that he will win CA by 85% to 15%? That's the kind of margin he will need to get the nomination in CA.

[basselope]

40. Your prediction about Tuesday are premature.

And there are primaries he is expected to win in between.

[Corporate666]

56. the number of primaries doesn't matter

I don't understand why Bernie supporters refuse to acknowledge this simple truth.

Winning 1 state with 500 delegates by 10% is more important than winning 10 states with 20 delegates each by 10%.

~380 delegates are up for contention on Tuesday, 25% of the remaining total. 70% of what's left after that is made up solely by California and NJ.

The primaries in between are virtually irrelevant, and while Bernie will win some, so will Clinton. Even if Bernie wins them by large margins, it won't make even close to a big enough dent in her lead to make the race decided in California.

And how do you figure my predictions for Tuesday are premature? There is polling in 3 out of the 5 states. He is down by double digits in 2 of those states, and 9% in the third. The other 2 that have no polling only have 45 delegates, whereas the other 3 have ~340 delegates. Voting is in 2 days, so it's not like Bernie has much opportunity to campaign and capture Clinton supporters.

What information do you have about Tuesday that counters the above facts and makes predictions premature?

[basselope]

70. Polls have mostly been wrong.

So your prediction about Tuesday is premature.

Further, she has no path to getting the required # of pledged delegates to lock this up, so California matters.

[MattP]

11. Oh yes i set up my account in 2004 and camped out

Waiting to join a superpac, you guys got me

[VOX]

15. CA, especially SoCA, has a large Hispanic demographic...

Remains to be seen how they'll actually vote, but in contests so far, minorities have been voting predominantly for HRC.

[kgnu_fan]

16. kick

[bahrbearian]

19. Wasn't the DNC registering voters at Clooney's Event.

[BobSmith4152]

89. I wouldn't know I didn't have ~$30k to get in

[Skwmom]

20. I talk to people all of the time when I'm out. I have found a ton of Bernie supporters that are in

groups that we hear again and again are for Clinton.

And the Clinton voters - let's just say they are proving to be an elusive group.

[SFnomad]

23. They can't be that elusive, there are 2.5+ million more of them than BS voters and that number will

grow over the next couple of weeks.

[ucrdem]

24. Dems will do what they need to do here but I don't think it will be much.

Bernie has gotten virtually no real endorsements in CA, apart from the random ex-mayor and former Peace and Freedom candidate. Bill Press, former state chair, is about the biggest fish he's snared. Only one current elected official, the mayor of Glendale. Otherwise, zip. And one of the very first and firmest Hillary endorsements I heard was Jerry Brown a year and a half ago on NPR, though for the record he hasn't endorsed anyone. Boxer has though.

So will the Clintons bury Bernie out of spite? They could, but they won't, at least not intentionally. But they aren't going to lose California I can guarantee it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Did Governor Brown make an endorsement? I don't think so and I don't think he will.

I know the two Democrats, Loretta Sanchez and Kamala Harris , vying to replace Senator Boxer who is retiring did as well as our Lieutenant Governor, Gavin Newsom.

[ucrdem]

31. You betcha, in an interview with Scott Simon.

I suppose that's not official but it was real. Very real.

SIMON: Governor Brown, you're a popular governor of the largest state in the country. Why not run for president?

BROWN: Well, I think we've got a candidate running for president. Her name is Hillary Clinton, and from all I can tell she is very strongly supported. So I think that pretty well takes care of that. Also I just got myself elected and I've got a lot on my plate.

SIMON: That doesn't sound like an endorsement for Hillary Clinton so much as a recognition of the obvious.

BROWN: Well, I'm not in the business of making endorsements, you know, three days after my inauguration. I'm just recognizing that both because of the job that Bill did and his unusual and continuing popularity and her own work quite significantly as senator and secretary of state, you know, she's formidable.

http://www.npr.org/2015/01/10/376300626/californias-brown-on-governing-practice-tends-to-make-more-perfect

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Thank you.

I wonder how the fact that both Democrats running for the senate have endorsed her and both will be on the ballot that day influence the election.

[ucrdem]

42. I think every single elected Dem in the state has endorsed her

apart from Bao Nguyen, the mayor of Garden Grove in Orange County (not Glendale). That doesn't leave much wiggle room.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. I know Eric Garcetti phone banked for her in NV.

My gf is a real estate accountant and she met him while he was working on Hollywood redevelopment. I used to go to the L A Fitness near the Dolby Theater and take the Red Line to Highland Station to get there. That walk is like a gauntlet with all the entertainers and vendors.

[ucrdem]

46. I've seen a few Bernie bumper stickers here in the I.E.

nothing for Hillary but she's not exactly a great unknown LOL. I have a sister in the East Bay and she's for you guessed it, The Bern. I don't think we're ever going to agree on that one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. I am wary of anecdotes. Too much motivated thinking.

When someone tells me they are feeling the Bern I change the subject..

[ucrdem]

52. Hillary rocks en Espagñol:

Okay it's not Hillary but it's a nice video and there's a resemblance don't you think?

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. Point number three

From the grapevine this is a party decision

[ebayfool]

59. A party decision to not pursue new registrations? More 'thumbs on the scales'?

#3 observation: Not a SINGLE HRC person trying to register voters or doing any type of outreach. Not a single sticker, bumper sticker, yard sign.. NOTHING. But, to me the "surprise" (not really) was that they are making NO EFFORT at all to register voters.

[nadinbrzezinski]

67. Yes

[redstateblues]

28. Everybody I knew at the time at the time voted for McGovern

How is it possible that Nixon won?

[Bluenorthwest]

63. What's always amusing about people who try to quote Kael is that they don't know the actual quote:

“I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.”

She's highlighting her own narrow provincialism, noting that she is in fact apart from the bulk of the people.

She was a very great writer. The right wing enjoys flaying her intentions.

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2012/10/The-Fraudulent-Factoid-That-Refuses-to-Die

[oldandhappy]

32. Thank you to both of you.

Appreciate your efforts

[Trajan]

34. Why would they register voters ...

They would only have to declare them 'unaffiliated' from the back office ....

[marlakay]

41. In Humboldt Bernie heaven!

At Bernfest tonight, local bar full, bands registering voters and passing out buttons and stickers.

All are excited here. We love him!

We also are doing tons of phonebanking to other states and other areas of CA.

[2banon]

44. SF/East Bay Area here.. yep Bernie everywhere

No HRC anywhere. But she's not interested in our votes.

So, there's that.

Women activists here, my generation largely REJECT Bourgeoizee "Feminists" of the NeoLiberal/War Hawk brand.

Consider that brand anathema to what Feminism had always been about.

[onecaliberal]

47. Bernie bumper stickers all over in the Central Valley, I saw a billboard on fwy 99 near Selma today.

I haven't seen even one Hillary or trump anywhere. This area is very red so it's very exciting.

[reddread]

69. aint that a great billboard?

[onecaliberal]

71. Yes! I was so excited when I saw it.

[Jitter65]

53. Hillary supporters don't buy bumper stickers and they are already registered to vote and

they will be voting in huge numbers. Don't fool yourself.

[Bluenorthwest]

61. California does not really do the 'huge numbers' thing, turnout is pretty low and a big issue there

Not as anemic as NY's but still far lower than need be and far lower than their neighbor to the north in Oregon.

[jaceaf]

74. In the OC - South - No Bernie or Hillary signs

In fact, my wife has seen one Trump and one Cruz bumper sticker.

We both have our Hillary stickers and our yard sign. Not a lot of election excitement around here.

I put mine up early, in anticipation of Trump signs. Nothing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

79. Gad I used to read those arguments

from people on free republic about Lib'ruls... by the way, this surprises me in the least given the realignment under way.

[senseandsensibility]

54. I hope I have earned a reputation as an honest poster

my decade plus membership here. I have lived in California for more than fifty years. I have not seen one Hillary yard sign or bumper sticker anywhere ever. True story.

[Uncle Joe]

55. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for sharing, basselope.

[vintx]

57. Let's hope that WHEN they show up to vote, they are able to do so,

and that their votes are recorded accurately

(Remember when black box voting was a concern for Dems? Me too)

[Bluenorthwest]

64. Currently CA has vote by mail option and last election over 60% of CA voters did just that

And it is what I recommend to everyone.

[Jitter65]

66. HRC voters already registered or have voted. nt

[reddread]

68. drove to LA and back a week ago

yes Bernie stickers, no HRC stickers or signs.

I have seen upwards of 3 Hillary supporter stickers.
probably only two, but benefit of the doubt.
the first, and only sticker I have seen outside of the
parking lot of the Democratic HQ ( I believe that was one sighting)
was on a car in a parking lot

[brooklynite]

72. Delightful anecdotes

Meaningless, but delightful

[basselope]

75. Quite meaningful.

[metroins]

77. Votes are meaningful...and they vote for HRC. nt

[basselope]

85. Just not nearly enough.

Which is why she can't win the GE

[metroins]

86. 2.5 million more than Sanders and

All of the swing states.

[basselope]

90. Yes, by suppressing the votes.

[SDJay]

73. Completely and Utterly Anecdotal...

but here in San Diego I've seen quite a bit of SBS stuff and not one HRC sticker. Not one, and it's at the point where I'm starting to look.

The only HRC stuff I've seen was when I was out visiting my parents in Palm Springs. I saw a HRC bumper sticker on a Range Rover. That's it.

Of course, this all means nothing at all in terms of the vote, but it is interesting. I've seen more Drumpf stuff than HRC stuff, but even the Drumpf stuff can be counted with one hand.

[Tiggeroshii]

78. We are inundated with conversations, stickers and signs of Bernie support

All over LA too. Not to mention the schools I sub in, where students are always trying to tell me about Bernie.

[OilemFirchen]

80. Just can't get enough anecdotes!

Here in Montgomery County, Ohio, I saw dozens of Trump yard signs, about a half-dozen Sanders signs and nada for Clinton. No voter outreach by anybody.

The results?

Clinton 58.93%, Sanders 40.62%
Kasich 45.02%, Trump 40.0%

Golly, huh?

[underthematrix]

84. I would say California is definitely Hillary

country, especially SoCal. I would be really surprised if Bernie won California. I haven't met anyone that's voting for him but my social universe is pretty small. I'm in northern CA and my sister is in SoCal. Every one I meet seems to be talking about Hillary as the next president.

[zappaman]

88. Yup, the Clinton campaign isn't doing anything in CA!

She hasn't even been to CA!
Astute observation!

[basselope]

91. She's just using it as a wallet.

But no connection with the people.

[OnionPatch]

92. Can't wait to vote for Bernie!!

And all my "elderly" friends (including "establishment Dems in our local Dem Club) will also be voting Bernie.

[AnotherDreamWeaver]

93. West Sonoma County, only seen Bernie stickers

and signs for 5th District Supervisor candidates. A gal did flash her T-shirt today when she saw my hat.

Edit to say last election I was sent a note my polling station was closed and I had to vote by mail. The station was not closed. I was sent that note again and it looks like the closing is real this time.