Why is it that Bernie won the conservative counties in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Connecticut

[Fresh_Start]

but not the more liberal counties.

He also won the more conservative counties in NYS.

It seems counter intuitive...cause after all we are told that Clinton is no different that the Republicans.

But Bernie won the only county that Mitt Romney won in Connecticut.

[Broward]

1. What are you getting at? Make the connection for the rest of us.

[Fresh_Start]

11. I don't know...it just struck me as bizarre

he's got the very conservative western Maryland.
he's got the conservative central PA
he got upstate NY

I've been watching elections for a while and those areas very frequently go to the GOP.

I would have thought that he'd be more likely to pull support for his more liberal agenda from the more liberal parts of the state.
But thats not what is going on.

So why the disconnect?

[Garrett78]

30. As I wrote below, he's been winning the 'reddest' parts of the US throughout this entire campaign.

Sanders, for instance, won the 4 'reddest' states in the US (with West Virginia, #5, yet to vote), going by Romney's margin of victory in 2012. Within states (such as PA, NY, MD, MO, IL, etc.), Sanders does best in suburban and rural areas, while Clinton does best in urban areas. Clinton has dominated the most populous states. In other words, Clinton has consistently done best in areas with a high concentration of persons of color, a point which has been evident for months. That's a big reason why Sanders never stood a chance of becoming the nominee. http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511829582

Romney's margin of victory in each of the states he won:

1) Utah: 48 points
2) Wyoming: 41 points
3) Oklahoma: 34 points
4) Idaho: 32 points
5) West Virginia: 27 points
6) Arkansas: 24 points
7) Nebraska: 23 points
8) Kentucky: 22 points (22.7)
9) Alabama: 22 points (22.3)
10) Kansas: 22 points (22.2)
11) Tennessee: 20 points (20.5)
12) North Dakota: 20 points (19.8)
13) South Dakota: 18 points
14) Louisiana: 17 points
15) Texas: 16 points
16) Alaska: 14 points (14.0)
17) Montana: 14 points (13.5)
18) Mississippi: 12 points
19) South Carolina: 11 points (10.6)
20) Indiana: 11 points (10.5)
21) Arizona: 10 points (10.1)
22) Missouri: 10 points (9.6)
23) Georgia: 8 points
24) North Carolina: 2 points

[mvd]

2. Possibly more party oriented Democrats in those areas

The Democrats in other areas, surrounded by such redness, may be more liberal. It's a theory.

[Fresh_Start]

12. maybe

could it be the more liberal position on guns...cause those are the hunting parts of those states

But maybe you are right that they are just more disgruntled with all the power of the urban counties.

In NY it was always upstate versus downstate...almost on principle.

[Punkingal]

55. I do believe guns was a factor.

But I also believe it isn't just liberals who are unhappy wih politics as usual.

[Fresh_Start]

56. I thing most of us are unhappy with politics as usual

as usual being defined being all the obstructionism raised during Pres Obama's term of office

[pat_k]

37. Has been my theory too.

[bkkyosemite]

3. I have another theory but you have heard it already.

[puffy socks]

4. Conservatives believe they can beat Bernie easier in the GE.

The Right Baits the Left to Turn Against Hillary Clinton

For months now, America Rising has sent out a steady stream of posts on social media attacking Mrs. Clinton, some of them specifically designed to be spotted, and shared, by liberals. The posts highlight critiques of her connections to Wall Street and the Clinton Foundation and feature images of Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York, interspersed with cartoon characters and pictures of Kevin Spacey, who plays the villain in “House of Cards.” And as they are read and shared, an anti-Clinton narrative is reinforced.

America Rising is not the only conservative group attacking Mrs. Clinton from the left. Another is American Crossroads, the group started by Karl Rove, which has been sending out its own digital content, including one ad using a speech Ms. Warren gave at the New Populism Conference in Washington last May.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/us/politics/the-right-aims-at-democrats-on-social-media-to-hit-clinton.html

[Hortensis]

32. Here's that "AmericaRisingPac" ad against Hillary.

https://www.americarisingpac.org/clinton-hosted-former-fundraiser-former-keystone-lobbyist-now-keystone-investor/

Looks like a whole lot of stuff our own anti-Democrats drag in here.

[spooky3]

54. Confirms what many of us suspected...thanks.

[BeyondGeography]

5. Two things going on there: D's in those areas can be very anti-establishment/insurgent friendly

while the counties are red overall. In NY he won many of the same counties that Teachout took against Cuomo in the Democratic primary. They aren't more conservative Democrats; if anything they're more liberal. And they aren't courted by the establishment because that's not where the votes are. Those are the same counties we often lose in the GE because many are Republican to begin with.

[KingFlorez]

6. He's a protest candidate for DINOs

[elleng]

7. What means 'conservative' in this context?

Wouldn't mind a conversation about this here. 'Conserve' what, or return to where we were when?

[Fresh_Start]

14. I mean that from watching years of election results those counties either go GOP

or have a much tighter race than the more liberal counties.

I'm almost wondering if its more anti-urban attitude.
For me I grew up in NYS and upstate versus downstate was a given (staten island was an outlier)

And I know that many of the rural/urban values around guns and self-sufficiency seem to come into play in those votes

[elleng]

16. Thanks.

I'm in DC suburb of MD, 'lost' Senator Sanders (and Donna Edwards,) 2 progressives, to the Dem establishment, did gain a progressive member of congress in Van Hollen's stead.

Haven't watched the counties as closely as you have. Glad to see your understanding of what happened.

[Fresh_Start]

18. I know those states

and New Jersey and California very well

And I always wonder what makes people vote the way they do

[Algernon Moncrieff]

8. I am guessing the same factors that led to

wins in WY, ID and similar traditionally conservative states.Maybe all the Sanders voters in these areas are college kids?

[Fresh_Start]

15. I doubt it

I'm thinking its closer to the midwest v coastal states split
More rural versus more urban.

Guns and anti-government thinking

[ViseGrip]

9. The numbers are fixed per congressional districts. Karl Roves little game.

[JI7]

10. because there are more white people there and Clinton's support is more POC

[Garrett78]

13. Sanders has been winning the 'reddest' parts of the US throughout the campaign.

For instance, he won all 4 of the 'reddest' states in the US (going by Romney's margin of victory in 2012). And he'll likely win more 'red' states, such as Montana, if he doesn't suspend his campaign.

[Warren DeMontague]

31. "Red" like Washington State? Seattle?

How do you suppose Hillary Clinton is going to do in Oregon?

[Garrett78]

33. Exceptions prove the rule.

Check out Romney's margin of victory in each of the states he won in 2012:


1) Utah: 48 points
2) Wyoming: 41 points
3) Oklahoma: 34 points
4) Idaho: 32 points
5) West Virginia: 27 points
6) Arkansas: 24 points
7) Nebraska: 23 points
8) Kentucky: 22 points (22.7)
9) Alabama: 22 points (22.3)
10) Kansas: 22 points (22.2)
11) Tennessee: 20 points (20.5)
12) North Dakota: 20 points (19.8)
13) South Dakota: 18 points
14) Louisiana: 17 points
15) Texas: 16 points
16) Alaska: 14 points (14.0)
17) Montana: 14 points (13.5)
18) Mississippi: 12 points
19) South Carolina: 11 points (10.6)
20) Indiana: 11 points (10.5)
21) Arizona: 10 points (10.1)
22) Missouri: 10 points (9.6)
23) Georgia: 8 points
24) North Carolina: 2 points

Sanders has won (or will win) most of those, especially those closest to the top. And within states, such as MO and IL, Clinton does best in urban areas and Sanders does best in suburban and rural areas.

[Warren DeMontague]

34. I suspect California's results will surprise you.

50 Million people on the west coast of the United States are not an "exception". We are people whose issues and concerns are consistently blown off or misunderstood by beltway and east coast conventional wisdom types.

[Garrett78]

59. I didn't say Sanders has only won 'red' areas.

I said that he's been winning the 'reddest' areas throughout the campaign, which is undeniable (again, see Romney-2012 list).

Regarding California, I suspect it'll be a close contest. Clinton will do better in the urban areas and Sanders will do better in the non-urban areas, which has become a well-established pattern.

As I've been saying for the last couple of months, the Clinton-red state meme is one that takes reality and flips it on its head. Because it's actually Sanders who has done best in the 'reddest' parts of the US. That may seem counterintuitive to some and it may contradict one's preconceived notion, but that is the reality.

[pnwmom]

40. Washington is one of the states with the fewest African American voters.

That's where he gets the least support everywhere.

[Warren DeMontague]

41. Yeah, so I guess its not just Sanders people who make excuses.

They're too white! Too red! Too liberal! Too conservative! Too young! Dont count!

since she's likely to be the nominee, maybe she should consider how to broaden her appeal, even to the useless millennials and apparently irrelevant 50 million of us on the podunk left coast of this country. Just a thought.

[pnwmom]

42. Where is your evidence that she would have a problem with millennials in the general election?

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/25/11505126/poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump

Poll: Hillary Clinton's "millennial problem" disappears against Donald Trump

Young voters have overwhelmingly backed Bernie Sanders throughout the Democratic primary, leading to endless speculation that Hillary Clinton will face a big "millennial problem" come November.

A new poll out today, however, suggests that Clinton would do more than just fine with young people in a general election. Clinton leads Donald Trump by a whopping 36 points among people ages 18 to 29, according to a Harvard Institute of Politics study released on Monday.


https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/khe4kQaTnzF8BHOEkTAnqH8K2fE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6387965/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-25%20at%205.17.28%20PM.png

[Warren DeMontague]

45. I'm not sure what any of these arguments are supposed to "prove", at this point. We'll see.

Seems to me it couldn't HURT for her to try and appeal better to, say, Millennials or residents of the Pacific NW- and frankly why some here seem to get off on endlessly insulting them is kind of beyond me...

well, everyone needs hobbies, I suppose.

[pnwmom]

47. She does her best in diverse states that include significant African American and/or Latino

populations.

Washington is less than 5% African American. Our caucus system increased Bernie's lead even more, since it involved only about 6% of our population.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/


And the sort of wishful thinking Sanders is engaged in can cut both ways. Yes, Clinton’s lead would be considerably narrower (although she’d still be winning) without delegates from the Deep South. But what if you excluded delegates from caucuses, where Sanders has gained a net of 150 delegates on Clinton? Without those delegates, Sanders couldn’t even maintain the pretense of a competitive race. Not only are most of those caucus states extremely white and therefore poorly representative of Democrats’ national demographics — many of them (such as Idaho and Nebraska) are also quite red. Furthermore, caucuses tend to disenfranchise voters by making it harder to vote. Our demographic modeling suggests that this has hurt Clinton and that Sanders wouldn’t have won by the same enormous margins if those caucus states had held primaries instead.

But overall, the math is pretty simple. Sanders is winning states that are much whiter than the Democratic electorate as a whole, Clinton is winning states that are much blacker than the Democratic electorate as a whole, and Clinton is winning most of those states that are somewhere in the middle, whether they’re in the South (like Virginia) or elsewhere (like Ohio or Nevada). That’s why she’ll probably be the Democratic nominee.

[Warren DeMontague]

48. And your point with that is... What, exactly?

The OP was trying - lamely- to say "conservative", not "white". We're going to have to stretch the definition of conservatvie pretty fuckin far to include PDX.

[LexVegas]

17. Are they much whiter counties? nt

[Fresh_Start]

19. yes, they are whiter

I just don't believe that whiter is the entire underlying factor

[LexVegas]

20. No...thats basically why. nt

[pnwmom]

44. Clinton does better in states that are more diverse. Bernie does well in states with

as few African American people as possible.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/

[hollowdweller]

21. Think it's Clintons focus on restricting gun ownership.

I think she will need to run the table in the urban areas in the general because after her using the gun issue to be difft from Bernie very few rural folks will vote for her.

Many rural people are economically progressive so it's no wonder Sanders is popular but the gun issue is the one they vote on.

[Fresh_Start]

22. I also was wondering if the differences toward guns played into the rural/urban split nt

nt

[Recursion]

23. Because they're the whiter parts

And he's consistently done better with white voters. The campaign has spent the entire primary season wondering what could possibly be "wrong" with minority voters, since if they understood his message they'd clearly support it, rather than wondering if in fact it's just not a very appealing message to a lot of minorities.

[Jitter65]

24. They are mostly white. nt

[seabeyond]

25. Yes. Sanders consistently wins the conservative areas and Clinton wins the progressive areas.

You would think that would be a clue.

[haikugal]

26. Do you have a link to the counties in PA and how they voted? Thx nt

[all american girl]

28. If you go to Talking Points Memo, they have the results on the front page

clink on the results and they show the breakdown of the counties.

[haikugal]

50. Thanks!

[Ash_F]

27. Those would also be less populated areas

I think in less populated areas, Democrats are more socially connected to each other and less connected to their tvs.

[Fresh_Start]

62. maybe...when I lived in the rural area, democrats were hard to find

I'm almost 3000 miles away but thanks to the magic of facebook, I can see that area is still GOP country

[Ash_F]

63. That would mean the Democrats there would be even more connected.

[Fresh_Start]

64. Could be

My mom didn't become a US citizen until her mid-60s...
so I wouldn't necessarily seen the hidden democrats

[Ash_F]

65. Hidden? Are you implying there aren't?

I understand that those 3 states are closed primaries. It would be quite a commitment by a lot of Republicans to register as Democrats in advance, in many cases their entire lives. A lot of coordination and ability to keep it all a secret too.

[Fresh_Start]

66. no, I"m not saying they aren't there

I'm saying that I didn't observe as many democrats in my area as the more vocal republicans

Hidden to me because my family was apolitical...which should be obvious because my mom couldn't vote as a non-citizen

[Ash_F]

67. How do you account for all those votes?

Edit - I organize non-citizens and I find them way more political than most.

[Fresh_Start]

68. my family were non-citizens and apolitical

and you would not have found them to be more political than most

[Ash_F]

69. I get that. I am saying you can not put people in a box based on one or two factors

Either where they live or where they are from.

[Fresh_Start]

73. I'm not sure how saying that republicans were the majority and the most visible

where I lived in the rural part of the NYS is putting people in a box

[DemocraticWing]

29. Moderates in heavily partisan areas tend to register with the dominant party.

It's mostly a desire to vote in local elections, which in those places are often decided in one primary or the other. The people actually registered Democrat in places like Upstate NY are incredibly committed, the type who join websites like this one because they feel cut off from other Democrats. They don't get to truly decide who wins mayor or county clerk or whatever because the Republican primary tends to decide those elections. On the other hand, there are higher numbers of crossover moderate Republicans registered Democrat in heavily blue areas.

Hillary does better with moderates than liberals, and Bernie does better than liberals with moderates.

[jfern]

35. Hillary won conservative areas like Greenwich, CT

[Armstead]

36. This will sound corny but I think its the more personal scale of life

People in places like upstate NY tend to have more interaction with their neighbors and politicisns and government...Liberals and conservatives have more human interactions....and thus see political opponents in 3d terms.....They may fight over politics but relate in other ways



Like in Vermont....Alot of people who are not as left as Sanders, but appreciate him as a person and politician who has their back.

I think a lot of what Bernie represents is the idea of community...

[auntpurl]

38. Guns and lack of POC. nt

[treestar]

39. True

Bernie has the white males too.

[NurseJackie]

43. Less diversity?

That's my guess.

[Sancho]

46. Archie Bunker likes Bernie

[Warren DeMontague]

49. Yes, but which campaign has more fans of "the mentalist"?

I'm bettin' Hillary's

[La Lioness Priyanka]

51. white people.

demographics is destiny in this election.

(yes, i know merely by mentioning race, i am clearly being racist/race-baiting )

[B Calm]

52. I live in red state Indiana and it voted for Obama once.

[CompanyFirstSergeant]

53. Trump Supporters and Bernie Supporters...

Live side-by-side in upstate NY.

No hate.

Trump supporters roll their eyes at Bernie's ideas - 'how's he gonna pay for it...?'

Bernie supporters roll their eyes at Trump's big mouth - 'he seems over the top...'

Both of the above spit nails when they mention HRC.

[DCBob]

57. Simple.. diversity is lacking in those counties.

[Garrett78]

60. It really is that simple.

Some of us have been pointing that out for months now. Clinton becoming the nominee has been a given ever since Biden made it clear he wasn't going to run, because Clinton wins where it matters most.

[JudyM]

58. With all the documentation of "miscounting" it wouldn't surprise me if only the least conservative

precincts were tampered with.

[ThePhilosopher04]

61. I'm sure there's fraud involved.

[workinclasszero]

70. Its simple really. Trump on the right and Bernie on the left

represent white male anxiety over their loss of privilege and place in the power structures of America.

[Skwmom]

71. Because someone like Bernie can cut across ideologies.

[Turin_C3PO]

72. I think

because most of the urban areas tend to be more diverse and minorities have been voting for Clinton. I certainly don't think it's because Sanders is more conservative or anything like that.