2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNo the Party is not Uniting...beware of people parsing data to prove a false narrative.
Facts about the Harvard IOP Spring 2016 PollAlso this is not the newest sample, this last day for the poll was on April 3rd, 16 days (over two weeks) before NY voted, and before the scorched Earth attacks on Bernie and his supporters and the continued attacks this week...
People using the better is shows the DNC is WORSE off than before against the lead republican in youth votes and their enthusiasm.
Biggest issue is this is about a month old before Hillary's paid trolls and scorched earth, and when Bernie was doing much better.
Also compared to the last election with Obama, we are doing much worse by 16% that will even vote.
2016
How likely is it that you will vote in the general election for President in November?
Definitely will be voting................................ 50%
Probably will be voting ................................. 14%
50-50.............................................................. 15%
Probably won’t be voting .............................. 9%
Definitely won’t be voting............................. 11%
Decline to answer .......................................... 1%
2008
10. How likely is it that you will vote in the general election for president in November?
Total Non-College 4-Year-College
Definitely will be voting .............................. 64% 61% 72%
Probably will be voting................................ 16% 15% 16%
50-50 ........................................................... 10% 11% 7%
Probably won’t be voting............................. 5% 5% 3%
Definitely won’t be voting ........................... 6% 7% 3%
Donald Trump ............................................... 22%
vs
John McCain................................................ 9% 8% 10%
32. How enthusiastic are you about supporting this candidate (Hillary Clinton).
(n=1,179)
Net: Enthusiastic.......................................... 60%
Very enthusiastic ........................................... 22%
Somewhat enthusiastic .................................. 38%
Net: Not Enthusiastic .................................. 40%
Not very enthusiastic ..................................... 27%
Not at all enthusiastic .................................... 13%
33. How enthusiastic are you about supporting this candidate (Donald Trump).
(n=507)
Net: Enthusiastic.......................................... 51%
Very enthusiastic ........................................... 17%
Somewhat enthusiastic .................................. 34%
Net: Not Enthusiastic .................................. 49%
Not very enthusiastic ..................................... 36%
Not at all enthusiastic .................................... 13%
Decline to answer .......................................... -
http://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/content/160423_Harvard%20IOP_Spring%202016_TOPLINE_u.pdf
http://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files_new/spring%20poll%2008%20-%20topline.pdf
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1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Then, parses data (that he/she discredited) to prove a narrative.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)But I linked both documents and provided several details that others are leaving out. It is the false narrative I am talking about...but I am also walking the parsing line...but I am merely responding to a parsing glove that was dropped at my feet. 
ismnotwasm
(42,674 posts)Lord Lord.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1845119
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1797371
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1644832
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1644814
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)ismnotwasm
(42,674 posts)
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)attack. And if that isn't enough ridicule you add your childish emoticons.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)You express your objection to my ad hominem attack ... by ... wait for it ... posting an ad hominem attack.
You guys are on a roll, today ... but I guess I should give you credit ... you didn't add a childish emoticon. Might I suggest:
or 
?
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)Most of these types have no intention of uniting.
I am starting to lose my god damn sense of humor about it, as well.
So, for my own sanity
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)"Carson" was great in it, and I loved the DNC one, killer Mike handled himself very well.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)I think he missed the part about a false narrative or all of the other detail I placed in to support it...or how it was about rebuking the false narrative, not creating a new one. Oh well.
SidDithers
(44,333 posts)They're having a rough morning.
Sid
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)
emulatorloo
(46,151 posts)"Also the best part, Trump and Hillary are almost tied in the young voter enthusiasm..."
At any rate numbers will probably move more once the GE campaign is in full swing.
Sane people who defeated Sarah Palin in '08 are not interested electing her male clone to the Presidency.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Not this primary cycle ... different rules of reality apply ... We have seen actual losses, termed "virtual ties", if not, "virtual wins."
I agree ... and that applies whether the republican nominee is trump, or cruz.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Oh, sure, there will be holdouts who effectively remove themselves from the party, but at the convention a platform will emerge from the agendas of the various delegates and candidates.
I'm all for fighting on, but what we get at the convention will be the Democratic brand for the near future. Let's make it the best it can be.
artislife
(9,497 posts)But there are a lot of people slipping out the back door. A lot.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)...but even their grudges may not last forever. If they really are gone, well, maybe this just wasn't the decade in which they would have been happy in a major party.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)just millennials, very liberal democrats, people who joined the party just to vote for Bernie, people who would never vote for Hillary under any circumstances, people who feel they have been insulted by identity politics (I follow a very nice AA man on Twitter who is very hurt by #BernieMadeMeWhite), people who don't want to vote for a war hawk, people who don't trust Hillary, women who don't believe other women who are 8 months pregnant go cray-cray and demand abortions, people who are disgusted by her invoking dead children to smear Bernie, people who are against fracking, people struggling on poverty wages, people who put principle before party, people who are worried about Hillary's BFF Sid and those damn emails, people who are disgusted by sending children into a war zone to send a message, people who are disgusted by her arms for Clinton Foundation donations, people who want to see those transcripts that banks paid big bucks to someone who wasn't going to run for President in the near future, people who believe health care is a right not a privilege, people who think it's government negligence to ignore people who are homeless, people who think that corporations shouldn't buy elections, yeah and probably more.
artislife
(9,497 posts)They don't get it. They don't care.
JSup
(740 posts)...are awfully realistic based on the current state of things. You accept facts and, instead of letting them destroy your optimism, you redirect to something attainable but still very much important.
Do you ever plan on actually getting into politics? I think you'd make a great leader or advisor or anybody in charge of making, or helping to make, decisions.
Please don't take anything said here as snark, sarcasm, condescending or patronizing; I meant every word as someone impressed by what, and how, you said it.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)I've seen conventions, and someone always has to hold his/her nose or walk out. Compromise is the essence of parties and politics, and if I seem very accommodating, well, that means I want as many different voices involved as possible, and as little hate as possible among my fell victims of capitalism.
I think there is a big difference, however, between what is attainable and what we're likely to do, if we do things the same old way. A Clinton win sets the bar of avhievement significantly lower, IMO, and means we've pre-negotiated ourselves out of some of what we need. The time for incremental change is running out, I'm afraid. Too many crises face us which have yet to be widely acknowledged, much less dealt with.
Clinton may be compromised, but she cannot ignore all those delegates who won't be hers. She'll try, I believe, but that too is part of how sausage is made.
And speaking of sausage, maybe let's nominate someone other than a dude this year.
JSup
(740 posts)...but not for its own sake; always only compromise when it's what is needed to move forward. I want our party to represent the left and I don't want the "I won, so shove it" or the "If I can't have it nobody can" philosophies to win out here.
I know with me being a Hillary supporter you would expect me to believe in capitalism, but I don't and never have. Between the over(ridiculously)-developed empathy I inherited from my mother and working in retail for 10 years where we ripped 'expired' books in half instead of donating them to anywhere there is no way I can believe in that crap.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)There's no reason we have to tell ourselves that some people should be chewed up and spat out by a system rigged against them. Keep a profit motive in sectors where innovation is needed, but consider removing it where it's too dangerous.
JSup
(740 posts)...healthcare (treatments instead of cures), utilities (deteriorating gas/water lines etc.), education (teaches us to be cogs), food (monoculture, limiting breeds, poison, nitrogen saturation) . Capitalism can be good at first, but then it sinks its teeth in, tries to stifle competing innovation and, finally, squeezes to death what it improved or created so that it can sell something newer (not necessarily better).
And how do we regulate corruption in regulators? Honest question, as them taking money to overlook things can kill a lot of people.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)We would need to elect a lot of progressives, or at least honest people, and to do that we first need to breed them, because the system sure as hell doesn't select for such traits.
JSup
(740 posts)...and people voting midterms.
I always sorta thought replacing everybody at the same time every decade or so might help as you wouldn't have people there showing the newbies 'how this works'.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)the convention will be all about clinton and her centrist,corporist,neocon agenda.anyone who thinks different need to shut up according to them.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)besides that ... you're correct, they will get nothing.
Sighhh
Robbins
(5,066 posts)will be just like clinton campagain a center right centrist,corporist,neocon agenda.especilly since she signaled she doesn't even
need bernie supporters for ge.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)
Svafa
(594 posts)Once she has the nomination, she no longer has to pretend to give a single flying fuck about what progressives want.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)The #1 item on the agenda for the next four years if Clinton is elected will be making absolutely, positively sure that no other upstart left populist rises to challenge her.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)by legions of people who claim that REAL Democrats can't possibly be for the death penalty, private gun ownership for self-defense, and free trade agreements. All things which the platform, voted on by grass-roots delegates, clearly supports.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)JSup
(740 posts)Looks like Hillary it is. And I'm fine with it. Contrary to popular belief we're not all willing to let Trump win to prove a point.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton/comments/4gm30h/greetings_from_rsandersforpresident/
Sanders supporter checking in. #ImWithHer now.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton/comments/4gn7z3/sanders_supporter_checking_in_imwithher_now/
Bernie supporter here. Congratulations on the wins fellas.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton/comments/4gmjwo/bernie_supporter_here_congratulations_on_the_wins/
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)JSup
(740 posts)...anecdotal example of uniting going on. That's all. I thought the reddit posts themselves were very nice.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)If you were serious on the posts or not since they all read like #CorrectTheRecord posts. They are in the exact same tone as all the previous "I used to be a socialist until..." propaganda posts by paid Hillary salesmen. The middle one was the most obvious...
The entire post is filled with negative attacks used by Correct like the "math" line that no supporter would use after getting attacked with it for months. Also the line about Bernie or bust, and more unites than divides are plays directly from their book. Yeah good find, I am also seeing these fake posts. I think that this will be one of their biggest attack methods, the fake users giving up.
Rebkeh
(2,450 posts)
jwirr
(39,215 posts)if for no other reason to witness their idea of democracy. As to voting I will definitely vote down ticket but I am making not commitments to anything else. As soon as the state convention is over I am going to register as an Independent and that is the way I will stay.
Independents already out number the Ds and when the next election comes along I suspect that will be even more evident. I am lucky because my state does allow Indies to vote in the caucus. When the Ds finally recognize how much the Independents out number them they will have to start thinking about earning our votes.
Given that they D establishment has done everything they know how to do to alienate many of us this election that is going to be a huge job in the next election.
In the mean time I will be working to elect as many politicians who worked with Bernie as possible and when that is done I will be working in the movement with his other supporters to change the direction this country is going. Thus my Women for Bernie will become a symbol for his movement.
Unity - the party left me.
SharonClark
(10,497 posts)Anyone running against Trump will have a powerful message
Robbins
(5,066 posts)you will be surprised when independents vote trump and those who clinton said don't matter don't vote for her.
Dem2
(8,178 posts)...it seems...
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)So I hope Bernie wins because otherwise it is just two republicans in the general election.
Dem2
(8,178 posts)
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)emocons?
Dem2
(8,178 posts)Not clever.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)She made it too obvious, she could have hidden it better if she was a bit more clever.
Dem2
(8,178 posts)
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)Sweet dreams, maybe when we wake we will have only real democrats in our party.
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)
Tommy_Carcetti
(44,449 posts)Or are you willing to accept that your favorite candidate doesn't always win but that certain outcomes are highly, highly, highly preferable to other ones and you should work to ensure those highly, highly, highly preferable outcomes?