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2016 Postmortem

tonyt53

(5,737 posts) Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:12 PM Apr 2016

New fivethirtyeight CA numbers

fivethirtyeight just released their new number for the California primaries.

Polls Only Polls+
Trump 89 72
Cruz 8 25

Clinton 78 88
Sanders 22 12

These are odds of winning the primary. The + means polls plus trending. Nate Silver's organization has an unmatched level of accuracy, like the results or not.

3 replies

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New fivethirtyeight CA numbers (Original Post) tonyt53 Apr 2016 OP

Odds are not important! LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #1

I agree! texstad79 Apr 2016 #2

Estimating delegate count would work on the Republican side with winner take all. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #3

LiberalFighter

(50,779 posts)

1. Odds are not important!

Reply to tonyt53 (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:31 PM

Apr 2016

The vote split and delegate count matter.

texstad79

(115 posts)

2. I agree!

Reply to LiberalFighter (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 01:30 PM

Apr 2016

However, we can roughly estimate the winning percentage and delegate count from 538's odds. The larger the odds for HRC, the harder it becomes for Bernie to get the landslides he needs.

LiberalFighter

(50,779 posts)

3. Estimating delegate count would work on the Republican side with winner take all.

Reply to texstad79 (Reply #2)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 01:42 PM

Apr 2016

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