Plenty of Solid EVIDENCE For Bernie Sanders To Continue On Into What Will Essentially A TIED Race...

[CorporatistNation]

by the time Philly comes around... http://www.nationofchange.org/news/2016/04/29/will-happen-democratic-convention/

Hillary WILL NOT have enough Delegates to WIN OUTRIGHT... And Neither will Bernie... But he might... And then the Supers will have to decide whether they are willing to give up MILLIONS of Indys, Millions of Democrats and a very nice smattering of Republicans... Just to grant Hillary her lifelong ambition... There will have to be quite a bit of... THINKING TWICE!

Part Two: Why Sanders Will Win, According to Math

If you’ve found yourself thinking, “Well, Sanders won’t secure the nomination, either!” You are almost 100% right! Well, 99.6% right, anyway. Because, if we take Sanders’ current delegate total of 1,371, subtract that from the magic 2,383, then divide that by the remaining available delegates, we get 0.996, see:

2,383 – 1,371 = 1,012

1,012 ÷ 1,016 = 0.996 or 99.6%

Therefore, Sanders would have to secure a whopping 99.6% victory in all remaining states to secure the nomination! I think this may be one of the few things that both Berners and Clintonistas could agree on: that that is impossible. But to those of you that are thinking, “John! This is terrible” or “Haha! Take that, Sanders!” I would reply: You are both wrong. Mostly. Let me explain:

First off, let’s acknowledge that the math seems to prohibit both candidates from securing the nomination before the convention — so what does this mean? This means that, since Sanders will not give up before the convention, there will almost certainly be a “contested convention.”

“Um… But John…” you may be saying, “Won’t Hillary still be miles ahead of Sanders in votes at the convention?”

To which I would reply: I’m glad you asked, my paid Hillary-supporter friend! Allow me to demonstrate how that will also not be the case, no matter what the media would have you believe. Follow me!

Since neither of them will be securing the 2,383 needed for the nomination, let’s take a look at another number that has been hiding in plain sight for far too long. I’d like you to meet the number, 4,051. That’s the number of total pledged delegates that are available from all 50 states, plus DC, US territories, and the Democrats abroad. As it should be obvious, a majority of these delegates would be 2,026 because:

4,051 ÷ 2 = 2,025.5

At the convention, this number is going to matter more than the unattainable 2,383 delegates that no one will have. That being the case, let’s take a look at what Bernie Sanders would have to do to get there. If Sanders won 60% of the remaining contests (and remember how 475 of 1,016 are in California, where Sanders will do well), then the numbers at the convention would look like this:

1,016 x .60 = 609.6

Round that to 610 and add it to Sanders current total of 1,371, then divide that by the total delegate count, 4,051:

610 + 1,371 = 1,981

1,981 ÷ 4,051 = .489 or 48.9%

So, in the scenario where Sanders takes about 60% of the remaining vote, we’re essentially looking at a 49 to 51% vote total at the convention — not so bad, eh? And that’s easily within Sanders’ reach, if we do well in California (which we almost certainly will). Let’s look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):

1,016 x .70 = 711.2, round it down to 711, then:

711 + 1,371 = 2,082

2,082 ÷ 4,051 = 0.513 or 51.3%

If Sanders took 70%, the convention would look like 51.3 to 48.7%, in favor of Sanders! But 70%, while possible, is a bit of a stretch — the new magic number, for Sanders anyway, is actually 64.4% of the remaining states, which would mean winning 655 of the 1,016 remaining delegates, pushing his total up to 2,026, the bare majority of delegates, leaving Clinton one delegate behind at 2,025.

Now, does Sanders winning 64.4% sound too far-fetched? Not particularly, especially when we consider his advantages on the Left Coast, in California’s 475 delegate semi-open primary. An uphill climb, though? Certainly. Remember, though: it is all but certain that Clinton will not secure the nomination, while Sanders supporters are going to be pouring into Philadelphia for the convention by the tens of thousands. Even if Bernie fell short by a few points, we’re still essentially looking at a tie. And that’s when all hell is going to break loose.

Things are going to become very interesting if we have a near-tie at the convention to be decided by the super-delegates.

Things are going to become very interesting when they look back at the many states that are still crying out for a re-vote, states fraught with “voting irregularities,” polling station closures, and voter roll purges — all states which Clinton won and all states which so far have not received justice.

Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOP’s utter defeat in November.

Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of “Sanders! Sanders!” from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands — do you think that we won’t do the same at the convention?

And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz — or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and — yes, indeed — even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. I’ll see you all in Philadelphia.

In Solidarity,
John Laurits

Here is a very solid description of where we are... THE OLIGARCHY!

[SFnomad]

1. 2156 vs. 1412 ... also, you forgot to multiply by how much birds like BS

You people are seriously still beating this dead horse?

[CorporatistNation]

4. YOUR 2156 # IS COMPLETE UNADULTERATED BM!

Going forward it IS nearly IMPOSSIBLE for Hillary to prevail to meet the 2383 winning number... So go spread your PROPAGANDA elsewhere... SUPER DELEGATES DO NOT FUCKING COUNT until THE Convention!

[SFnomad]

7. Sure they do skippy ... but you just hang onto your delusions, it's about all you have left n/t

[Land of Enchantment]

87. NO, the SD's do not count until the convention.

[SFnomad]

93. Fine, you don't count them and pretend like BS can flip them and that he still has a chance

The rest of us who are grounded in reality know otherwise.

[Land of Enchantment]

94. Why is this so hard?

In the Great Hall of Democracy, there are assembled the Democratic Party's greatest heroes, created from the establishment elite.

Party leaders! Fundraisers! Lobbyists! And...Jimmy Carter!?!?

They are the Super Delegates, 700 electors chosen by party leaders who can vote at the national convention for whichever Democratic candidate they choose, regardless of whom primary and caucus voters actually selected.

Their mission? To fight grassroots candidates that might represent the party's base, to right that which is wrong (according to privileged insiders), and to serve all mankind! Well, no, just Hillary Clinton in the current election season, OK?

http://vaviper.blogspot.com/2016/03/reason-tv-has-instructional-cartoon.html

[SFnomad]

96. And what is so hard about the fact that they've committed to a candidate? We know who they're going

to vote for. Now sure, they can change their minds all the way up to the actual vote ... and maybe a few even will ... but you're not going to see a mass exodus of Superdelegates from Secretary Clinton. In fact, at this point right now, we're seeing a slow trickle of Superdelegates that are abandoning BS and switching their commitment to Secretary Clinton.

Secretary Clinton is on the verge of having the pledged delegate majority ... the Superdelegates have NEVER en mass switched from the candidate with the majority of pledged delegates to the loser.

So again ... you can live in your fantasy world all you want ... I'm going to deal with reality.

[Land of Enchantment]

99. Wow. I just looked at your transparency page b/c I wonder where all your anger

is coming from....I guess I'll put you on ignore because this is getting toxic.

This is how most Berners see the SD's. Good luck to you and g'bye.

[SFnomad]

101. Yes, just put your fingers in your ears and go la la la la la

It must be easier if you just stay in the BS echo chamber than deal with reality.

Buh bye.

[Land of Enchantment]

92. Here ya go CN, maybe do a thread on this link,,,,have funs.

http://vaviper.blogspot.com/2016/03/reason-tv-has-instructional-cartoon.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I still am flummoxed by the fact that folks who hold themselves out as proud non-theists

I still am flummoxed by the fact that folks who hold themselves out as non-theists found providence in a bird.

[LiberalFighter]

82. Like that couldn't possibly happen in the outdoors.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

98. I didn't say a thing at the time but finding a providence in a bird is unbelievable.

[Qutzupalotl]

22. 2156 < 2383. nt

[SFnomad]

25. California will put Secretary Clinton over 2383 ... the only people that don't realize that

are those that are desperately hanging onto #BernieMath

[basselope]

106. LMAO!!!!!!

Funniest thing I have read all day.

She has no chance in CA

[highprincipleswork]

26. You're still counting superdelegates before the convention? How unprincipled. Don't you guys ever

have any shame?

[SFnomad]

27. Obama counted the Superdelegates before the convention in 2008 ... was he unprincipled also?

Or is this just something you reserve for the next Democratic Nominee ... Secretary Clinton? To me, holding Secretary Clinton to a standard nobody else has been held to is shameless.

[highprincipleswork]

32. Superdelegates don't count till the convention, pure and simple. I don't care who is involved.

[Demsrule86]

43. If they have said they will vote for Hillary Clinton

They are counted. Bernie will not win and there is no tie.

[highprincipleswork]

68. BS

[Demsrule86]

72. It is true which is why Hillary has supers added to her count ...Bernie may have one too-not sure

Hillary conceded after the Supers went for Obama way before the convention.

[highprincipleswork]

75. If it was me, I wouldn't concede till at least the FBI completes is process or the convention does

its thing.

[Demsrule86]

88. She will be the winner after California

He will concede. I have no doubt of that.

[highprincipleswork]

107. Glad that you believe you're the master of Bernie's affairs. Hope that leaves room for

getting along with others, for instance all the Bernie supporters who could be included or continually shat upon by the Establishment Democratic Party.

[highprincipleswork]

108. You got that right. Lie detector time. Lawyering up.

[grasswire]

128. they don't need to polygraph her

Her aides are interviewed first.

The fact that her four aides lawyered up together could mean an effort to "keep them on the reservation" in terms of synchronized stories. That seems to be where the polygraph would come in handy. BTW -- who is paying for this lawyer? Have we heard yet?

[onenote]

65. The OP is based on a prediction of the outcome of primaries not yet held

How is that any different than basing a prediction on superdelegate votes not yet cast (but publicly committed)?

You really can't have it both ways. If superdelegates that have committed but not yet cast a vote can't be considered, then you shouldn't be considering pledged delegates that have not yet been won.

[highprincipleswork]

71. Based on what could be, not what must be. All super delegates are free to switch anytime up till

Convention.

[onenote]

73. And superdelegates voting as they have publicly have committed "could" happen

just as much as Sanders winning a particular number of delegates in primaries not yet held "could" happen.

If all that one is doing is "predicting" uncertain outcomes, then predicting superdelegate voting is as valid as predicting unwon pledged delegates' voting.

[highprincipleswork]

76. You are living up to your name enough that it isn't worth talking about.

[onenote]

116. Lovely. You're not living up to yours.

[highprincipleswork]

119. Thanks, I think I am. Did you not notice the loop we were in. Unproductive.

[72DejaVu]

104. My paycheck doesn't count until I cash it

I still make next week's budget.

[northernsouthern]

79. Wow, superdelegates?

What do you work for the media? Since they have not voted yet, you can not count them. If you do then we can count every state that has not voted. But if you like to rely on paid insiders that get to steal the vote of over 20,000 people each...then the system works for you.

[SFnomad]

81. Steal the vote? That's rich ... Secretary Clinton is about 2.5 million voters ahead n/t

[northernsouthern]

83. So you are going with that lie?

She has more from a rigged election that is still not finished. The votes ignore all people that were provisional or not allowed to vote, it also relies on the early votes when she was in the lead, and the 400+ superdelegates she paid off at the start to steal the election. SO brag about how she got more votes by stealing more votes. Either-way it is not over, and bragging about one's lead doesn't always work out until the race is over...you know the whole eggs hatching thing.

[Land of Enchantment]

91. Well said. Here is a little gift for you....

[k8conant]

130. Delegates count, not individual votes...

so says the DNC.

[LiberalFighter]

80. They have nothing else. Just convoluted math.

[SidDithers]

2. That's not math. That's #berniemath...

Bernie lost. Deal with it.

Sid

[CorporatistNation]

8. The MATH is Painful for Hillary As She Is Going to Be Going In TYo Philly "LIMPING" BIGTIME...

as Bernie WINS handily going forward... he does not even have to win handily... EVEN if he just ties... Hillary AIN"T winning shit outright!

Then the "Super's" will be TOTALLY on the hook for the certain LOSS if Hillary IS Appointed as the nominee by ... The INSIDER CLASS!

Here is The MATH...

According to the Green Papers, Clinton stands (today, April 28th) with 1,664 pledged delegates, while Sanders has gathered 1,371. The amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination is 2,383 and, if you’ll pardon me for my use of arithmetic, I will now demonstrate why that number is hopelessly out of reach for the Clinton campaign.†

Hillary needs 719 more delegates to reach 2,383 because:

2,383 – 1,664 = 719

Now, the pledged delegates that are available to grab in the remaining states all-together amount to 1,016 and in order to attain that blessed number, Clinton will have to win an average of 70.7% of the remaining states. This is because:

719 ÷ 1,016 = 0.707677 or approximately 71%

You might be thinking that 71% is not such an unattainable number for Hillary and her powerful Wallstreet backers — you might be thinking that but you’d be betting against longer odds than would be wise. You see, of the 1,016 delegates remaining, 475 of those delegates are to be won in California, alone — California, which has a semi-open primary. California, where Clinton is polling at a mere 49%. California, where Clinton’s support has been declining as the Sanders Campaign gains visibility and momentum. California — the ace that Sanders, as much as the media, have concealed up his sleeve.

It is no secret that Sanders, a previously invisible independent senator from the tiny state of Vermont, consistently climbs in the polls as he begins to campaign in the weeks before each state has had its primary. You don’t have to take my word for it — check the poll-histories for yourself or read this.

Because Bernie Sanders performs at his absolute best in open primaries and because he consistently rises in the polls, while Clinton consistently falls, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will perform better than 49 points, let alone win the contest. Let’s do some more math:

Of the 475 delegates available in California on June 7th, lets say Hillary takes 49% of those (even though she will almost certainly take less). That would give her 232.75 delegates, which we’ll round up to an even 234.

475 x 0.49 = 232.75

Next, let’s add that to her current total of 1,664, bringing her up to 1,897. Now, she needs an additional 486 delegates to reach the magic number of 2,383, right? Let’s find out how many delegates Clinton would have to win in the remaining states (besides California, of course).

Of the 541 delegates left, once the 475 CA delegates have been subtracted from the 1,016 delegate total, Clinton is going to have to win almost 90% of the remaining non-California delegates! This is because, when you divide the number of delegates that Clinton needs after California by the number of delegates remaining after California, you get 0.898 or 89%, rounded down:

486 ÷ 541 = 0.898 or 89.8%

Now, how likely does that sound? It’s not likely in Oregon, a fairly progressive state that shares its general attitudes with Washington, a state that Sanders won with about 70% of the vote. It’s not likely in West Virginia, either, where Sanders is currently leading in the polls. Nor is it likely in Indiana where Sanders and Clinton are almost neck-and-neck, which votes on May 3rd. That nomination is feeling a lot further away now, isn’t it?

Okay, okay — maybe you’re thinking, “John, I think you’re being unfair, Clinton could certainly win California.” To which I would reply: I admire your optimism, my friend — and since you’re so optimistic, let’s run those numbers again — but this time, let’s assume that Clinton, for whatever reason, defies the consistent trends that have prevailed over the entire primary season. Let’s say, she jumps up 11% now, winning the California primary with 60% of the vote. So:

475 x 0.6 = 285

Now, add the 285 delegates to Clinton’s current total:

285 + 1,664 = 1,949

But:

2,383 – 1,949 = 434

So, Clinton will still need to scrape up 434 delegates somewhere other than California, some how. Which means — Hold on, first we have to figure out how much of the remaining delegates she’ll have to win:

434 ÷ 541 = .802218 or 80%

Wow! Even if Clinton actually wins California with 60% to Sanders with 40%, she will still have to secure about 80% of the remaining vote! Again, this certainly doesn’t seem likely in Oregon, West Virginia, or Indiana, which means the actual percentage would climb each time she failed to take 80% of a state! Now, are you starting to see why I am saying that Clinton will not be securing the nomination before the convention?

[revmclaren]

28. #BIRNIEMATH

Only in Bernie-land.

Pssst...A little bird told me you haven't a clue!

[Petrushka]

29. An old broody hen chuckled and told me, "Tell 'em: 'Ya can't count chickens afore they're hatched.'"

[revmclaren]

85. Actually...not true.

Using technology and MATH, you can get a very accurate count of how many chickens you will have LOOOONG before they hatch.

Sometimes cute old sayings are just that...relics of the past.

Many more chickens soon and California (where I have lived all my life) is going to be a great diappointment to Sanders supporters.

But heres a hug in advance.

[ContinentalOp]

109. Yeah the idea that he's going to win CA is nuts.

[Petrushka]

129. Broody says: "Tell 'em: 'Truth be told: Techies make no accountin' for chickies that die abornin'.'"

[brewens]

3. I donated another $25 today. It would be easy to let myself think others would

and I didn't have to. But we all could have thought that all along but we didn't. It's only now $100 total but I don't have much to spare. But it's more of not being able to afford not to the way I look at it. We're asking a lot of Bernie. I don't think he really wanted to do it for us to begin with, but with Warren not running, he felt he had to.

[red dog 1]

121. + 1

Well stated!

[CorporatistNation]

5. I LOVE The Brainwashed Who "Believe" that SUPER Delegates Count... BEFORE The Convention!

Trying to propagandize to "persuade" the uninformed!

[onenote]

66. Your OP is based on a prediction about pledged delegates that haven't been won yet.

Why is that any different than predictions based on superdelegates that have publicly committed to a candidate but haven't cast their vote yet?

[CorporatistNation]

6. I Just Dropped Another $50 On Bernie!

ALL The WAY To PHILLY Cause it is gonna be a DILLY!

[Spacedog1973]

36. Wow! Its happening!

v

[redstateblues]

54. Good. Tad Devine has a payment due on his new yacht!

[Fuddnik]

70. Another $100 just went in.

On to the convention!!!!!

[Garrett78]

9. The final tally will be somewhere in the ballpark of 2175 for Clinton and 1876 for Sanders.

And I'm probably being generous. That is most certainly not a tie, and getting Clinton to 2383 will be a mere formality. To think Sanders will overcome a pledged delegate deficit of ~300 via superdelegates is beyond delusional.

[CorporatistNation]

11. Has Nothing To Do With "Overcoming" Anything... It IS The CHOICE That The Supers Decide To Make..

Understanding FULL WELL the consequences of doing so... LOSING the Presidency!

Recognizing that MOST Bernie supporters will NOT Vote FOR Hillary.

MOST Independents will accordingly vote for someone OTHER than Hillary...

Reasonable republicans that might have voted FOR Bernie will NOT vote for Hillary!

Some right wing Republicans may vote FOR Hillary... I guess that is what people here are hoping for... Hmmm?

Haters of EVERYTHING Clinton will come off their DEATH BEDS to VOTE TO DEFEAT Hillary! Think aout it! The SUPERS are going to have to ...

Watch THIS... The young man is good...

[Garrett78]

13. I'll stick with overcoming. He'll be down by ~300, he'll concede and then it's a mere formality.

Clinton will be a heavy favorite in November, because she'll have the support of the Obama coalition of voters (including massive numbers of POC and women). And given who her opponent is likely to be, she could very easily win in an even bigger electoral college landslide than Obama did. Clinton may lose the so-called "independent" vote just as Obama did, but it won't matter.

Far right Republicans and "independents" (like Tea Party members, half of whom refer to themselves by that term) aren't going to vote for Clinton. They hate her and think she's a liberal extremist. Just as they didn't vote for Obama. Again, it makes no difference.

Sanders will be the nominee...wrong.
There will be a contested convention...wrong.
Clinton will be the underdog in the general election...wrong.

I see a pattern.

[CorporatistNation]

14. Your Wish For The Corporatist Candidate As Nominee When People Generally Are AGAINST..

"The Establishment" with Hillary perhaps representing the MOST Beholden Candidate in history ... to "The Establishment" will likely result in Trump as your next Prez! End of Democratic Party as we know it which will be one POSITIVE and result also of a Democratic Congress and Senate in 2018. The Clinton duo will be done as well.

[Garrett78]

15. No wishful thinking on my part.

Only reality-based thinking, which you seem vehemently opposed to.

[Maru Kitteh]

24. The people have voted for Secretary Clinton by millions more in number than SBS.

And that's how he lost.

[AirmensMom]

42. She does not have the support of this Obama voter,

A female one at that and a registered Democrat. I'm not alone.

[k8conant]

131. I'm with AirmensMom

F D 66

[Karma13612]

133. Standing by both you and Airmensmom. +10 eom

[ViseGrip]

10. I dontated again too!

[CorporatistNation]

12. GREAT JOB!

The Propagandists...!

[Ferd Berfel]

55. I sent him another $25 last night before the deadline

Feed the Bern!

[mythology]

16. Yeah, that's a whole lot of wrong

Sanders is significantly behind and will continue to be significantly behind. Obama won the nomination by about 100 pledged delegates and that race wasn't in any doubt either. Sanders is behind by about 300 pledged delegates and has no reasonable path to even getting within 100 pledged delegates.

The article is fantasy and nothing more.

[CorporatistNation]

19. No Where Near The Amount of "Election Shenanigans" In 2008 As This Example....

[CorporatistNation]

18. Noam Chomsky On Bernie Sanders.... Nice...

Still got that FBI "thing"

[k8conant]

134. Can't see the FBI video...nt

[joshcryer]

20. It was a "near tie" in 2008. Clinton lost by 62 pledged delegates.

And we saw what happen. The same thing will happen again. Unless you're really going to tell me Sanders has less integrity than Clinton did in 2008.

[ViseGrip]

21. that is why we must keep funding Bernie!

[red dog 1]

118. + 1

[onenote]

23. This apparently is what happens when you drop acid and do election analysis.

The "solid evidence" cited for why Bernie has a realistic path to a majority of the pledged delegates is anything but solid.

It depends on the assumption that Bernie can get 64.4 percent of remaining pledged delegates. The math is correct, but the assumptions are fantasy. They appear to be based on the idea that Bernie has gotten more than 60 percent in many other contests and that the upcoming contests are in areas, such as the west coast, that are favorable to Sanders.

Couple of big problems:
First, while there a few west coast primaries coming up, there are also a number of primaries that are in areas that cannot be presumed to be as favorable to Sanders: Indiana, Puerto Rico, Kentucky, New Jersey to name a few.

Second, Bernie does quite well in caucus states, not so much in primary states. Almost all of the states where he has hit the 60 percent mark are caucus states. The only three primaries where he topped 60 percent were Vermont, New Hampshire, and Americans Abroad. The demographics of those contests do not resemble the demographics of most of the remaining primaries -- and Clinton has done very well in primaries as of late. In short, there is no evidence, let alone "solid" evidence on which to assume that Sanders' success in caucus states will produce comparable numbers in primary states since that simply has not been the case at any point in the process.

The reality if Clinton only averages 45% in the contests preceding California (a pretty conservative estimate given that they are almost all primaries) he would have to average over 68 percent in California, New Jersey, etc. And there is no evidence to suggest that is likely to happen.

[silvershadow]

33. As you should well know by now, Bernie is in it to convention because he is

providing some shade to the party until Clinton sorts out her legal woes. He will not drop out, even is she had the requisite number, until convention in order to be here in case she is indicted. We owe him a debt of gratitude. He did not have to do that for us. But he did. Think about that.

[Demsrule86]

44. If he has no path

and stays in until the convention...stick a fork in him...his senate career is over. He will be relegated to naming post offices. If he wants to have a place at the table, he will help Hillary Clinton win in November: thus stopping the Gop from naming five supreme court justices. I don't care a bit about Bern...I find him sanctimonious and tedious of late. I am all in for a Democratic victory in the general. If Bernie can't lend a hand...then he needs to step aside.

[onenote]

62. I have never once suggested Bernie drop out before the primaries are complete

But saying that he should continue to campaign through the end of the primaries doesn't mean i have to suspend reality and accept the ridiculous premises in the article posted by the OP.

[red dog 1]

115. + 1

[Petrushka]

30. Another donation made before midnight.

Go, Bernie!

[NMBerns]

31. Reading these comments first time on the site ,Disgusting

The trolls wish to squash this narrative even though it's correct, they use terms like , impossible, likely, wish and follow up with so much crap they smell through the screen. After reading these outrageous replies I went and donated AGAIN, this time I put it on weekly basis. As Iv been a Democratic party voter all my life it's rather insulting and repugnant to see my fellow berners called right wing by right wing trolls. If they are hillboughts or not they are right wing people who do anything for Clinton cash. they want broken Hillary so bad they could taste it. Sorry trolls this is the only true narrative so keep up with the insults I'm sure you are doing excellent representation of your candidate . she would be glad your berning bridges all over. Let's see how low you could go I'm sure there is still some from around the toilet for you stinky trolls.#StillSanders

[silvershadow]

34. Welcome to DU. Glad to see on your very first post you are here to "fight the trolls".

We do a pretty good job of sniffing them out and squashing them like the cockroaches they are.

[red dog 1]

117. + 1

[silvershadow]

120. right? :D nt

[red dog 1]

123. Your absolutely right!

We do a damn good job of ""squashing" trolls here.

If you want to see what a site looks like that does NOT "do a good job of squashing trolls"
go to:
http://www.discussionist.com

[silvershadow]

125. Ugh. I haven't been there since shortly after it started. Didn't even know it was

still a thing.

[red dog 1]

127. I hardly ever go there anymore,

I only have 258 posts there, most of them from back when it started.

However, if you stay away from the "Politics" areas, it's not a bad site.

I occasionally post trivia questions there in the "Fun" forum; and I just today read a great post in the "Science" forum titled:
"Greenland is being eaten away from above and the edges"

(From the OP)
"Greenland is really the big show when it comes to ice melt," says Matt King, Professor of Polar Geodesy and an ARC Future Fellow at the University of Tasmania.
"It's probably losing as much ice as all the small glaciers around the world combined, and probably more than Antarctica."

[B Calm]

40. The Democratic party has been taken over by conservatives. Welcome to DU.

[CorporatistNation]

57. YES, THIS IS A CORPORATIST NATION... And Hillary Is The Choice of Wall Street And The Oligarchy

to "lead" it! The Revolution Has Begun... FUCK 'EM! Then, there is that ... pesky FBI "Project..."

Wow... Madeline Albright.... What a POS!

This video is TOTALLY ON POINT!

The "media" gives her a pass because.. they are controlled by the very same entities that Hillary and all Corporatist Pols are...

[Fuddnik]

69. But. It's her turn goddammit!!!!!

Look how well that worked for Bob Dole.

I've had more than my fill of neo-fascist corporatists. Fuck Albright and the horse she fell off of..

[randome]

84. The only ones who say "It's her turn" are the Haters. You have to make up things to complain about.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[Fuddnik]

110. Well, you know what they say......

Get a life.

[redstateblues]

103. So many scary straw men out there. Scary oligarchs, scary corporatists. I'm so scared!!

[obamanut2012]

46. lolz

[Dr Hobbitstein]

50. Enjoy your stay. Nt

[sixersixersixer]

77. Let's work together

We can fight trolls with THE TRUTH which they perceive as an attack.

[MisterP]

95. they were ecstatically 101% certain Clinton'd win Vermont: they're delusional

[johnp3907]

111. We know a troll when we see one here.

[KitSileya]

35. LOL

Wow.

[Betty Karlson]

37. That sounds doable. Feeling the Bern as never before. Make it happen!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. The Thunder tied the Spurs last night

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400875651

[randome]

39. And Ted Cruz might rise like a mighty phoenix touched by the Hand Of God to overcome Trump.

Sure, it's possible, for Sanders and Cruz. In a strictly random Universe, anything is possible. But the overwhelming likelihood is that Clinton will be our next President.

Optimism serves a purpose up to a point. When it becomes blind stubbornness with a pinch of hate, all it does is cripple your soul. You really sound like you need to take a good, long and quiet walk somewhere.

[obamanut2012]

45. Do any of you watch Outlander?

I thought last night's episode was REALLY good. Thoughts?

[Adrahil]

47. So Sanders would have to win the remaining states by margins...

Like Hillary win Maryland. And not even a perfoemnce like he had in Rhode Island would be good enough.

Sounds perfecttly reasonable.

[NurseJackie]

48. Ha! You said "reasonable" .... there's your mistake right there!

[Adrahil]

49. Yeah, I know....

Some of th folks here are like creationists.... Twisting and interpreting data to support the required outcome, no matter ludricrous.

But I did have a reminder last night that these attitudes are not the rule among Sanders supporters. I had a few drinks to celebrate the birthday of a friend and most of the folks there were Sanders supporters. But all of them acknowledged that it was essentially over and they all were planning to vote for Hillary in November. This place is a bubble.

[NurseJackie]

52. Yep ... same here. I have several friends who support Bernie, and who will vote for Hillary.

They're perfectly reasonable and thoughtful people ... nothing at ALL like some of the hardcore Bernie fans here.

This place is a bubble.

Yep. I've mentioned before that nobody I know has ever heard of this place. NOBODY!

I'm not the most "plugged-in" person in the world, but neither my husband (a techie) or my son and son-in-law, or my two younger siblings, or any of my friends (who are all much more into social media, etc) have ever heard of this place.

This place is fun and all, but it's NO political powerhouse ... it's just a social gathering spot. It's definitely no Facebook or TMZ or Huffington Post. I'll bet Ellen Degeneres' web site or Oprah's web site have more political influence than this site. (Nothing personal to anyone, just my observation and opinion.)

[JoFerret]

51. LOL The woman who gave us 8 years of Bush-Cheney!

Of course it is OVER.

Now get over it and get behind our excellent candidate to WIN in November.

And if you can't do that get out and support the down ticket dems. We need a filibuster-proof Congress whoever is our candidate/ president.

[CorporatistNation]

58. Hmmmmm.....

This is your choice for President?

[redstateblues]

102. Naderite says what?

[NurseJackie]

53. Bookmarking ... for friendly gloating and light-hearted ridicule later.

[George II]

56. And now a solid dose of reality:

Clinton has 1665 pledged delegates as of today. Sanders has 1370. There are only 1016 still available.

So, in order for Sanders to reach 2026 (a majority of pledged delegates, not ALL delegates) he needs 64.5% (656) of all remaining pledged delegates.

He's not leading in the polls in any of the remaining 10 states. Let's say he gets 50% in each.

That means that Clinton will have 2173 (147 MORE than the 2026 majority) and Sanders only 1878, 148 delegates short of a majority.

According to Weaver and Devine, the superdelegates should "vote the will of the people". Obviously with a more than 300 delegate majority the "will of the people" is that they want Clinton as their nominee. No ifs, no ands, and no buts.

And this is taking a "worst case scenario" for Clinton, that she'll only get 50% of all remaining delegates. Inasmuch as she's ahead by about 8% in Indiana (83 delegates), 10% in California (475 delegates), and 10% in New Jersey (126 delegates). Those three states alone will give her about 375 delegates, putting her easily above the 2026 majority.

This is REAL math, based on facts. No ratios, no rounding, and no hope that Sanders will get 60% of the remaining vote - which is impossible if he can't get 60% in any single remaining state.

[JoePhilly]

59. When I was 4, my sister was 2. I was twice as old as her.

When I was 10, she was 8. So I was only 20% older than her.

Today, I'm 30 and she's 28. So I'm only 9.3% older than her.

Now the key question ... how long will it take for us to be the same age?

Here, your OP might need this ....

[randome]

60. Do you want the result in Bernie Tears or in Business Hours?

[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[JoePhilly]

61. Sharks teeth.

[NurseJackie]

67. Love this! It's brilliant!

Thank you!

[k8conant]

132. 2 years after you die.

[onenote]

63. Using the same methodology there's "solid evidence" that Clinton will lead by 500 delegates

when the candidates reach Philadelphia.

Laurits, the author of the article in the OP, attempted to back up his "solid evidence" claim in a second piece in which he averaged Bernie's wins (combining caucus wins and primary wins but excluding Vermont) to show how it is likely that Sanders could get over 65 percent of the remaining pledged delegates.

Of course, if one does the same thing with all of Clinton's wins (i.e., average all of her wins, throwing out her biggest win), you discover that she will end up getting over 60 percent of the remaining delegates. That will give here a 505 delegate margin going into Philadelphia (meaning she would capture the nomination with only 105 of the Superdelegates (less than 15%).

Do I believe that the result described above is likely? No. But it is no more unlikely than the result predicted by Laurits.

[amborin]

64. K&R Yes, exactly!

[CorporatistNation]

74. Hillary's Problem IS.. There's A Shitload Of People Who Will NOT Vote FOR Here under ANY...

circumstances... = BIGGGG Hillary LOSS!

[ViseGrip]

78. He has caught up to her in CA!!! With lots of time for a wipeout!

[stopbush]

86. This kind of Bernie math is just as realistic

as is the belief that you win primaries by attending rallies, not by casting your ballot.

Seriously, what is the point of these continuing, far-fetched delusions? They certainly don't provide even a glimmer of hope to any rational person who can count delegates and who can see what the polls say will happen in the few remaining races.

The Sanders supporters need to ask themselves what they would think were the tables reversed, were it Sanders with the overwhelming lead in pledged and super delegates and the popular vote, with the polls saying clearly that he was on track to go to the convention with huge leads in every measurable metric. Would they be allowing that Hillary could still win if all that needed to happen was for Sanders' super delegates to not honor their commitment to him, and to support Hillary instead?

[Metric System]

90. There's that ambition word.

[MrWendel]

97. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight...

[Beacool]

100. Sigh, more math fantasies.

I hope that by June reality sets in for some of you.

[mooseprime]

105. gosh i LOVE

getting schooled about reality by people who can effortlessly ignore:

--cluster bombs in civilian areas
--haiti
--honduras
--syria
--greenlighting arms sales to saudi arabia et al. in exchange for foundation donations
--publicly condemning columbia trade deal while pushing it when we can't see
--trying to make flag burning a felony while fracking guts the very land the flag represents
--(speaking of gutting the country) "the gold standard" of trade agreements
--that great big business opportunity formerly known as iraq (now covered with depleted uranium and burn pits!)
--maniacal secrecy and circumvention of our laws
--manhandling BLM
--vacationing with henryfuckingkissinger

add it all up and you get KINDNESS AND LOVE(TM)!!!!!!


smell the freedom!!!

[ContinentalOp]

112. Bernie is not going to win CA.

You said "Let’s look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):" but I think you need to look more closely. You're talking about Washington state which was a caucus, not a primary, and which is only 6% hispanic and 3% african american vs California's 38% hispanic and 6% african american population. And she won the two other western states that have already voted, Nevada and Arizona, both of which look more like CA demographically than Washington does.

I also think that despite some very liberal pockets, CA leans more establishment and often just goes for the big names. After all our four term governor has been around since the '70s. The governor before him was a republican movie star. And our senators, Boxer and Feinstein are about as establishment as you can get. Not that dissimilar to Clinton to be honest. Centrist establishment democratic women who have been around since the '90s and stay in power because of familiarity.

[Fuddnik]

113. John, why are you rattling cages on such a nice week-end?

At least in Florida, it is.

[johnp3907]

114. Suzie Saranwrap? Seriously?

[red dog 1]

122. Kick!

[kayakjohnny]

124. I am loving this thread.

Thanks for the bright spot on my weekend!

[Tarc]

126. Looks like the PhD in #berniemath just showed up

You people just don't get proportions, do you? The only way Sanders would have a shot at this point is if we has some winner-take-all states like the GOP does.

Clinton will enter the convention with over 2.026 delegates, and as we all know, the superdelegates will vote for her, being the winner of the pledged delegate count. Sanders may hit 64% in the Dakotas, perhaps even Oregon, for a net of +31; Clinton almost wipes that out completely with a New York-sized % in neighboring NJ.

Time to face the math facts, I'm afraid.