2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBuzz Clik
(38,437 posts)It really must suck to be this desperate to stay relevant.
davidlynch
(644 posts)The OP must have struck a nerve to trigger such an over-determined response.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)But I'm the one with a problem?
I think not. Simply pointing out the truth here. Deal with the truth.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)it is highly unlikely REAL lifelong DEMOCRATS are gonna switch to Bernie Sanders. That's just not realistic.
amborin
(16,631 posts)those who like reckless regime change, FTAs, fracking, border walls, no single payer, etc....will vote otherwise
griffi94
(3,733 posts)about 300 pedged delegates and 3 million vote short.
Skink
(10,122 posts)griffi94
(3,733 posts)that weren't actually cast.
If they did Bernie would be way up. Just look at those rally attendance numbers haha.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)and knew their state held closed primaries?
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)They have no idea why a state has a closed primary - to prevent the hijacking of a nomination by a lesser candidate, that's why.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)the time they registered to vote or by going to secretary of state or state board of elections website
Bernie is the lesser candidate. Less educated less experience less class less smart less gracious less realistic
Skink
(10,122 posts)underthematrix
(5,811 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)underthematrix
(5,811 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)behind the truly disadvantaged.
demwing
(16,916 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)underthematrix
(5,811 posts)progress we've made
Cal33
(7,018 posts)Republicans than Hillary has, since the summer of 2015 - and by
double-digit margins? Lifelong Democrats would want their Party
to win against the Republicans, wouldn't they? Bernie has beaten
Trump by large margins -- EVERY TIME!!
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)This was the same kind of denial that HRC supporters experienced in 2008.
Honestly, I just don't see a pathway for Bernie to get the nomination. I just don't see it.
But if by some fluke he got the nomination I would definitely vote for him. But I just don't see it. Hillary has a huge lead in the popular vote and has gotten MORE than a couple of million votes than NAZI TRUMP. She has a significant lead in the pledged delegates and an overwhelming lead in superdelegates.
it appears Hillary Clinton will be the DEM nominee.
onenote
(42,660 posts)They have run against each other and Clinton has won more contests, more pledged delegates, and more of the popular vote. Those are the cold hard facts.
Everything else is speculation.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)What a general national poll says, especially this far out, doesn't mean anything.
Bernie had a good run. He's not going to get there tho.
Sorry.
dchill
(38,462 posts)Well, that lets Hillary Clinton out.
Go Vols
(5,902 posts)If your life is long enough,Bernie may be the only D running.
Current Prez: "Obama says he'd be seen as moderate Republican in 1980s". Hillary is big on Obama.
I didn't care for moderate R's then either.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)Bernie registered as a DEMOCRAT in 2015. Hillary Clinton left college as a DEM. She married a DEM, whose husband was the DEM gov of Arkansas multiple terms. Her husband was the 2 term DEM president. She was Dem senator from New York. She was SoS for a DEM president. So yeah REAL lifelong Dem. And after passage of the Civil and Voting Rights racists shifted over to the Republican Party but there remained in the 80 a moderate wing of the party. PBO was referring to that group. But PBO has also been a REAL lifelong DEM.
Go Vols
(5,902 posts)I know what a D is.
:/
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)Was George Wallace a REAL lifelong DEMOCRAT when he won the 1963 Governor's race in Alabama and - as a Democrat - declared "segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever"?
griffi94
(3,733 posts)Hahahahahahahahaha
If by contested you mean Hillary has it in the bag then sure.
She'll win on the first ballot
I wonder which state will get to put her over the top.
New York, Arkansas, or Illinois.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)onenote
(42,660 posts)when its votes will put her over the top.
That's the way it frequently been done in the past.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Zynx
(21,328 posts)underthematrix
(5,811 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)Obama was never as far ahead as Clinton is and Obama's win wasn't in any doubt. Neither is Clinton's.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)There will be NO contested convention ... Game, Set and Match to Secretary Clinton on the first ballot ... you can't just ignore the Superdelegates because they're not going with BS.
rock
(13,218 posts)Is NOT used by the DNC. They use normal math. Sorry.
stone space
(6,498 posts)If we give 300 of the remaining 1000 left to Bernie to balance things out, that leaves 350 each for them to tie.
But that would just bring them both up to 2000.
The 2400 number for delegates remaining doesn't make any sense here.
Are you including supers?
moriah
(8,311 posts).... pledged delegate lead in a two-candidate primary.
After criticizing Superdelegates, a few overzealous supporters threatening them.... hopefully the SDs won't hold it against Bernie, but traditionally they follow pledged delegates in these cases.
LiberalFighter
(50,825 posts)moriah
(8,311 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)There will not be one this year.
This is absolutely false. There is not fact in it. There is not truth in it.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)Obama won pledged delegate count which led to superdelegate switch.
Hillary won the total popular vote.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Super delegates pushed him over he top.
In 2016, Clinton will finish haveing won the majority of pledged delegates. Super Delegates will not go against the will of the Democratic Party.
There will be no contested convention.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)Obama won 33 contests and HRC won 23. Obama received 66% of the superdelegates while HRC received 34%. You are right. It was the superdelegates that pushed him over the top with 2285 1/2 But only because he won more PLEDGED delegates than HRC.
HRC will keep all of her superdelegates because she has the MOST PLEDGED delegates. I imagine some of Bernie's delegates will switch to Clinton.
tritsofme
(17,372 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)onenote
(42,660 posts)If you mean that there will be a roll call of the states and that before the last state is reached Clinton has a numerical majority of the combined pledged and super delegates, well yes it will be a "contested" convention.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)silvershadow
(10,336 posts)bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Mr. Sanders has done much better than I thougt he would, but he will not be the nominee. And it won't be contested. The race really isn't that close.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)The Superdelegates vote alongside their state's pledged delegates. you'd have to assume some massive Berniespiracy to get them to either jump ship right then or abstain. It's fanciful silliness with no basis in reality.
6chars
(3,967 posts)when they are doing the first round of voting.
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)MineralMan
(146,281 posts)First ballot. No contest.
Corporate666
(587 posts)Right?
Or do terms matter? Does the definition of "fascist" matter? Dictator? Or do we just toss words around for maximum effect?
A contested convention is one where no candidate has enough votes to win on the first ballot. It does not mean where nobody has enough PLEDGED delegates, it means TOTAL delegates. Super delegate votes count just like pledged delegate votes count.
Therefore your graphic is wrong. It was created by someone who is either stupid or willfully ignorant, or who is dishonest and trying to twist facts. There is a lot of untruthful information out there. And being willfully ignorant is not a good thing (see: climate change deniers, flat earthers, 9/11 conspiracy theorists, creationists).
Why on earth would someone want to advertise that they have firmly planted themselves in such territory? It's not a good life skill. It causes is to believe untrue things. It sets us up for disappointment when things we've deluded ourselves into believing don't come true. It makes us a laughing stock among people who are informed and rational.
There will be no contested convention unless HRC is unable to secure the 250 or so additional delegates (out of 1400 or so) required to win on the first ballot.
Anyone suggesting that is believing in an event so improbable that they may as well suggest Russia will invade us and install Putin as President of the USA.
Good luck with the willful ignorance and conspiracy theories. It's working great for the Obama birth certificate truthers, contrails-are-government-chemicals crowd and jet-fuel-can't-melt-steel-beams folks.
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)the supers vote with their states and she'll win handily. hence, no contest.
okasha
(11,573 posts)At least it's progress.
And the current state of my beer gut means Nicole Kidman will break into my house tonight and beg me for sex!
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)it is very interesting to see that should he get
the required amount of delegates there are some
HRC supporters now claiming that they would not
vote for him in the GE.
I remember distinctly that they said the opposite
about 4 months ago. Yet it is the HRC supporters,
who now want unity.
Funny that!
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Frankly, I'm starting to get annoyed at Sanders, et al. for repeating this over and over. He said it again this morning.
I guess that Sanders won't have Hillary's class and release his delegates so that she can be nominated by acclamation.
OK, if that's how he wants to play it, let him. What will happen is that there will be a vote and she will win it. Hillary will go to the convention with the most pledged delegates and even a wide lead in the popular vote. Super delegates will not subvert the will of the people.
This constant talk of a contested convention only serves the purpose of dividing Democrats and building resentment.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)sofa king
(10,857 posts)Dear Bernie Folks,
Thank you for your time and your effort. I really appreciate it, and so do a lot of the rest of us. It has been absolutely amazing to see such a wonderful effort on the part of true progressives, people after my own heart, and the amazing amount of success you have achieved gives me the greatest hope for the future. I never knew so many of you were so much like me. So many brilliant young newcomers, so many grizzled yellow dogs among you; it's been great to watch you work.
None of this is particularly new to me, so it's probably a little easier to let go, maybe a little sooner than some of you. I've seen wonderful candidates come and go, sometimes with scarcely a whisper, but you folks thundered through this election.
And the results were uniformly positive: exactly as Senator Sanders said, his intent was to push the Democratic Party where it belongs, where I have always wanted it, and you've been heard. I can see it in the way Mrs. Clinton's campaign has allowed itself to embrace more good and ethical ideas than it likely would have if they didn't have a strong liberal challenge. Some echo of your words will follow Mrs. Clinton into the White House. Your voice will inform her actions.
But soon you'll have to face the fact that as great as Bernie is, he's probably not going to be the Democratic nominee this time. He's guided by strong ethics, so he's probably not going to jeopardize the election and the country by going independent, where he would wind up hurting all of you first and the rest of us soon thereafter.
It's going to hurt to see some of you angrily stomp off, and grumpily proclaim that you'll never forget. I saw a lot of people here do exactly that eight years ago, in fact, and I think it will be perfectly fair to remind them of that if they get too haughty about it. But the important thing is that most of them came back, worked hard for our common good despite their loss, and now they're finally having their day in the sun--as will you, one day.
I can barely remember what it's like to be so young and energetic and so heartbroken over something so nasty and heartless as politics. I do remember realizing that four years of Bush--the original one--would be more than a fifth of my lifetime and most of my adulthood. It was almost intolerable, and worse, I was right and they were wrong and terrible things happened and I couldn't stop them and god damn it, WHAT IS WRONG WITH FUCKING PEOPLE!?!?!
Whatever it is, it's still wrong with them, and one of the hardest things you'll have to do going forward is learn to forgive, to accept loss and try to see the way forward, to compromise when it tastes of bitter ashes, to accept some small part of what you want when the people need so much more and better.
But I know you'll do it, and you will grow wiser, and more patient, and some day, thanks to what you have done this year, things are gonna break your way--our way. In the meantime I hope you can find it within yourselves to keep moving forward, and to support the good option you'll still have, even though you won't have your choice... yet.
Thanks for everything and for goodness sake, don't give up! The world is weird and evil, and we may wind up needing Bernie Sanders even more than we already do. But if not, know that you have so many, many admirers, including me.
Your pal sk
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)His delegates are in green and they are nice and sharp. Hers are in red and they look fuzzy and indistinct. Plus he is clearly taller and is able to hold his index finger far higher than hers. If that's not proof that he is winning, then I don't know what is.