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The Current Delegate Count Means A Contested Convention (Original Post) amborin May 2016 OP
I see you're doing the shell game with the superdelegates. WRONG! Buzz Clik May 2016 #1
"Desperate to stay relevant..." davidlynch May 2016 #19
The delegate counts are wrong, the math is wrong, the knowledge of the process is missing. Buzz Clik May 2016 #23
I don't think we'll have a contested convention because underthematrix May 2016 #2
we are real lifelong Democrats but we will vote for the candidate who represents democratic values amborin May 2016 #5
Seems like you're griffi94 May 2016 #9
Delegates yes up 10 mil popular votes among the disenfranchised Indy's Skink May 2016 #44
I don't think they count votes griffi94 May 2016 #45
You mean the people who registered as independents for years underthematrix May 2016 #51
Bernie should have told them. but didn't tonyt53 May 2016 #54
Bernie is not responsible for their stupidity. This is something they would know at underthematrix May 2016 #57
Yes the ones that tend to vote in the GE Skink May 2016 #55
Most African American political power is in the Hillary camp so I'm with them underthematrix May 2016 #15
tribalism demwing May 2016 #48
Call it what you will. I call it BlackWealth BlackPower BlackExcellence BlackInnovation underthematrix May 2016 #50
William Julius Wilson spoke about this; when blacks move into the middle or upper class, they leave amborin May 2016 #63
I call it casting your vote based on how your group votes. demwing May 2016 #65
really? that's the word you're going to choose to describe african american voters? ContinentalOp May 2016 #67
I guess the large majority of AA voters just aren't real enough Democrats for you.... NT Adrahil May 2016 #24
Well thank God for POCs and the well educated who want to build on the underthematrix May 2016 #69
Not even if these "lifelong Democrats" see that Bernie has always done better against the Cal33 May 2016 #20
Yes we want a win. but Bernie is not going to be the DEM nominee underthematrix May 2016 #22
Neither Bernie nor Clinton have run against Trump yet. onenote May 2016 #26
Bernie has never ran against Trump griffi94 May 2016 #46
"REAL lifelong DEMOCRATS..." dchill May 2016 #37
"REAL lifelong DEMOCRATS" Go Vols May 2016 #38
Okay so you're stuck somewhere in the MATRIX underthematrix May 2016 #40
I don't need credentials, Go Vols May 2016 #41
Okay. Rock on underthematrix May 2016 #42
What does the phrase "REAL lifelong DEMOCRAT" mean to you? demwing May 2016 #66
Hahaha griffi94 May 2016 #3
I'd bet NY. JoePhilly May 2016 #6
I would expect New York to pass and then the chair will recognize NY onenote May 2016 #29
Earth to amborin, come in amborin......LOL Trust Buster May 2016 #4
No. Superdelegates will deliver her a first ballot victory just like Obama in 2008. Zynx May 2016 #7
Absolutely underthematrix May 2016 #16
Yes. Over 200 super delegates abandoned Hillary and voted for Obama. Good point you made! imagine2015 May 2016 #43
Yes once it was evident that Obama was going to win the pledged delegates mythology May 2016 #49
It's 2016. NO way the superdelegates are gonna choose Bernie over Hillary underthematrix May 2016 #52
FFS, Earth calling the BS cheerleaders, Earth calling the BS cheerleaders SFnomad May 2016 #8
Bernie math rock May 2016 #10
There's a problem with the numbers there. They don't make sense. stone space May 2016 #11
He's including Supers to say they should have a say if there's a clear.... moriah May 2016 #14
He is using "Convoluted Math". LiberalFighter May 2016 #34
If you mean how 2008 was a "contested Convention", sure. Nt moriah May 2016 #12
#berniemath...nt SidDithers May 2016 #13
There was no contested convention in 2008, when Obama failed to meet the pledged delegate threshold Agnosticsherbet May 2016 #17
Hillary didn't win the PLEDGED delegate count. underthematrix May 2016 #56
In 2008, 2117 delegates were needed to win. Obama did not have that many. Agnosticsherbet May 2016 #60
I see what you're saying. Obama had more delegates than Clinton underthematrix May 2016 #61
This has gotten sadly pathetic. Was 2008 a "contested convention"? tritsofme May 2016 #18
... OilemFirchen May 2016 #21
What do mean by "contested"? onenote May 2016 #25
Clinton will be declared the nominee on the first ballot KingFlorez May 2016 #27
His Washington presser today was excellent in explaining it all. He lays out the case quite well. n silvershadow May 2016 #28
There will be no contested convention. Ms. Clinton wins on first ballot. bigwillq May 2016 #30
You keep using words that have no actual meaning to the Democratic Convention Tarc May 2016 #31
Somewhere around Texas, Hillary will go over the top 6chars May 2016 #33
I'll alert the media Lil Missy May 2016 #32
No. It. Doesn't. MineralMan May 2016 #35
Bernia is a would be fascist dictator! Corporate666 May 2016 #36
a contested convention only happens if she loses in the first ballot. which she wont. La Lioness Priyanka May 2016 #39
Bargaining phase. okasha May 2016 #47
Right fred v May 2016 #53
I will wait for the convention, but sadoldgirl May 2016 #58
There won't be a contested convention. Beacool May 2016 #59
This again? NuclearDem May 2016 #62
Dear Bernie Folks, sofa king May 2016 #64
The difference is stark ContinentalOp May 2016 #68
 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
1. I see you're doing the shell game with the superdelegates. WRONG!
Sun May 1, 2016, 06:49 PM
May 2016

It really must suck to be this desperate to stay relevant.

davidlynch

(644 posts)
19. "Desperate to stay relevant..."
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:05 PM
May 2016

The OP must have struck a nerve to trigger such an over-determined response.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
23. The delegate counts are wrong, the math is wrong, the knowledge of the process is missing.
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:19 PM
May 2016

But I'm the one with a problem?

I think not. Simply pointing out the truth here. Deal with the truth.

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
2. I don't think we'll have a contested convention because
Sun May 1, 2016, 06:49 PM
May 2016

it is highly unlikely REAL lifelong DEMOCRATS are gonna switch to Bernie Sanders. That's just not realistic.

amborin

(16,631 posts)
5. we are real lifelong Democrats but we will vote for the candidate who represents democratic values
Sun May 1, 2016, 06:51 PM
May 2016

those who like reckless regime change, FTAs, fracking, border walls, no single payer, etc....will vote otherwise

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
45. I don't think they count votes
Sun May 1, 2016, 09:13 PM
May 2016

that weren't actually cast.


If they did Bernie would be way up. Just look at those rally attendance numbers haha.

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
51. You mean the people who registered as independents for years
Sun May 1, 2016, 09:53 PM
May 2016

and knew their state held closed primaries?

 

tonyt53

(5,737 posts)
54. Bernie should have told them. but didn't
Sun May 1, 2016, 09:57 PM
May 2016

They have no idea why a state has a closed primary - to prevent the hijacking of a nomination by a lesser candidate, that's why.

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
57. Bernie is not responsible for their stupidity. This is something they would know at
Sun May 1, 2016, 10:03 PM
May 2016

the time they registered to vote or by going to secretary of state or state board of elections website

Bernie is the lesser candidate. Less educated less experience less class less smart less gracious less realistic

amborin

(16,631 posts)
63. William Julius Wilson spoke about this; when blacks move into the middle or upper class, they leave
Sun May 1, 2016, 11:35 PM
May 2016

behind the truly disadvantaged.

 

Cal33

(7,018 posts)
20. Not even if these "lifelong Democrats" see that Bernie has always done better against the
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:07 PM
May 2016

Republicans than Hillary has, since the summer of 2015 - and by
double-digit margins? Lifelong Democrats would want their Party
to win against the Republicans, wouldn't they? Bernie has beaten
Trump by large margins -- EVERY TIME!!

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
22. Yes we want a win. but Bernie is not going to be the DEM nominee
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:17 PM
May 2016

This was the same kind of denial that HRC supporters experienced in 2008.

Honestly, I just don't see a pathway for Bernie to get the nomination. I just don't see it.

But if by some fluke he got the nomination I would definitely vote for him. But I just don't see it. Hillary has a huge lead in the popular vote and has gotten MORE than a couple of million votes than NAZI TRUMP. She has a significant lead in the pledged delegates and an overwhelming lead in superdelegates.

it appears Hillary Clinton will be the DEM nominee.

onenote

(42,660 posts)
26. Neither Bernie nor Clinton have run against Trump yet.
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:38 PM
May 2016

They have run against each other and Clinton has won more contests, more pledged delegates, and more of the popular vote. Those are the cold hard facts.

Everything else is speculation.

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
46. Bernie has never ran against Trump
Sun May 1, 2016, 09:16 PM
May 2016

What a general national poll says, especially this far out, doesn't mean anything.

Bernie had a good run. He's not going to get there tho.
Sorry.

Go Vols

(5,902 posts)
38. "REAL lifelong DEMOCRATS"
Sun May 1, 2016, 08:19 PM
May 2016

If your life is long enough,Bernie may be the only D running.

Current Prez: "Obama says he'd be seen as moderate Republican in 1980s". Hillary is big on Obama.

I didn't care for moderate R's then either.

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
40. Okay so you're stuck somewhere in the MATRIX
Sun May 1, 2016, 08:28 PM
May 2016

Bernie registered as a DEMOCRAT in 2015. Hillary Clinton left college as a DEM. She married a DEM, whose husband was the DEM gov of Arkansas multiple terms. Her husband was the 2 term DEM president. She was Dem senator from New York. She was SoS for a DEM president. So yeah REAL lifelong Dem. And after passage of the Civil and Voting Rights racists shifted over to the Republican Party but there remained in the 80 a moderate wing of the party. PBO was referring to that group. But PBO has also been a REAL lifelong DEM.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
66. What does the phrase "REAL lifelong DEMOCRAT" mean to you?
Mon May 2, 2016, 12:17 AM
May 2016

Was George Wallace a REAL lifelong DEMOCRAT when he won the 1963 Governor's race in Alabama and - as a Democrat - declared "segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever"?

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
3. Hahaha
Sun May 1, 2016, 06:49 PM
May 2016

Hahahahahahahahaha

If by contested you mean Hillary has it in the bag then sure.

She'll win on the first ballot
I wonder which state will get to put her over the top.

New York, Arkansas, or Illinois.

onenote

(42,660 posts)
29. I would expect New York to pass and then the chair will recognize NY
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:39 PM
May 2016

when its votes will put her over the top.

That's the way it frequently been done in the past.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
49. Yes once it was evident that Obama was going to win the pledged delegates
Sun May 1, 2016, 09:34 PM
May 2016

Obama was never as far ahead as Clinton is and Obama's win wasn't in any doubt. Neither is Clinton's.

 

SFnomad

(3,473 posts)
8. FFS, Earth calling the BS cheerleaders, Earth calling the BS cheerleaders
Sun May 1, 2016, 06:53 PM
May 2016

There will be NO contested convention ... Game, Set and Match to Secretary Clinton on the first ballot ... you can't just ignore the Superdelegates because they're not going with BS.

 

stone space

(6,498 posts)
11. There's a problem with the numbers there. They don't make sense.
Sun May 1, 2016, 06:56 PM
May 2016

If we give 300 of the remaining 1000 left to Bernie to balance things out, that leaves 350 each for them to tie.

But that would just bring them both up to 2000.

The 2400 number for delegates remaining doesn't make any sense here.



Are you including supers?

moriah

(8,311 posts)
14. He's including Supers to say they should have a say if there's a clear....
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:02 PM
May 2016

.... pledged delegate lead in a two-candidate primary.

After criticizing Superdelegates, a few overzealous supporters threatening them.... hopefully the SDs won't hold it against Bernie, but traditionally they follow pledged delegates in these cases.

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
17. There was no contested convention in 2008, when Obama failed to meet the pledged delegate threshold
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:04 PM
May 2016

There will not be one this year.

This is absolutely false. There is not fact in it. There is not truth in it.

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
56. Hillary didn't win the PLEDGED delegate count.
Sun May 1, 2016, 09:59 PM
May 2016

Obama won pledged delegate count which led to superdelegate switch.
Hillary won the total popular vote.

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
60. In 2008, 2117 delegates were needed to win. Obama did not have that many.
Sun May 1, 2016, 10:46 PM
May 2016

Super delegates pushed him over he top.

In 2016, Clinton will finish haveing won the majority of pledged delegates. Super Delegates will not go against the will of the Democratic Party.

There will be no contested convention.

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
61. I see what you're saying. Obama had more delegates than Clinton
Sun May 1, 2016, 10:57 PM
May 2016

Obama won 33 contests and HRC won 23. Obama received 66% of the superdelegates while HRC received 34%. You are right. It was the superdelegates that pushed him over the top with 2285 1/2 But only because he won more PLEDGED delegates than HRC.

HRC will keep all of her superdelegates because she has the MOST PLEDGED delegates. I imagine some of Bernie's delegates will switch to Clinton.

onenote

(42,660 posts)
25. What do mean by "contested"?
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:33 PM
May 2016

If you mean that there will be a roll call of the states and that before the last state is reached Clinton has a numerical majority of the combined pledged and super delegates, well yes it will be a "contested" convention.

 

bigwillq

(72,790 posts)
30. There will be no contested convention. Ms. Clinton wins on first ballot.
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:41 PM
May 2016

Mr. Sanders has done much better than I thougt he would, but he will not be the nominee. And it won't be contested. The race really isn't that close.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
31. You keep using words that have no actual meaning to the Democratic Convention
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:42 PM
May 2016

The Superdelegates vote alongside their state's pledged delegates. you'd have to assume some massive Berniespiracy to get them to either jump ship right then or abstain. It's fanciful silliness with no basis in reality.

6chars

(3,967 posts)
33. Somewhere around Texas, Hillary will go over the top
Sun May 1, 2016, 07:57 PM
May 2016

when they are doing the first round of voting.

Corporate666

(587 posts)
36. Bernia is a would be fascist dictator!
Sun May 1, 2016, 08:01 PM
May 2016

Right?

Or do terms matter? Does the definition of "fascist" matter? Dictator? Or do we just toss words around for maximum effect?

A contested convention is one where no candidate has enough votes to win on the first ballot. It does not mean where nobody has enough PLEDGED delegates, it means TOTAL delegates. Super delegate votes count just like pledged delegate votes count.

Therefore your graphic is wrong. It was created by someone who is either stupid or willfully ignorant, or who is dishonest and trying to twist facts. There is a lot of untruthful information out there. And being willfully ignorant is not a good thing (see: climate change deniers, flat earthers, 9/11 conspiracy theorists, creationists).

Why on earth would someone want to advertise that they have firmly planted themselves in such territory? It's not a good life skill. It causes is to believe untrue things. It sets us up for disappointment when things we've deluded ourselves into believing don't come true. It makes us a laughing stock among people who are informed and rational.




There will be no contested convention unless HRC is unable to secure the 250 or so additional delegates (out of 1400 or so) required to win on the first ballot.

Anyone suggesting that is believing in an event so improbable that they may as well suggest Russia will invade us and install Putin as President of the USA.


Good luck with the willful ignorance and conspiracy theories. It's working great for the Obama birth certificate truthers, contrails-are-government-chemicals crowd and jet-fuel-can't-melt-steel-beams folks.

 

La Lioness Priyanka

(53,866 posts)
39. a contested convention only happens if she loses in the first ballot. which she wont.
Sun May 1, 2016, 08:23 PM
May 2016

the supers vote with their states and she'll win handily. hence, no contest.

 

fred v

(271 posts)
53. Right
Sun May 1, 2016, 09:57 PM
May 2016

And the current state of my beer gut means Nicole Kidman will break into my house tonight and beg me for sex!

sadoldgirl

(3,431 posts)
58. I will wait for the convention, but
Sun May 1, 2016, 10:05 PM
May 2016

it is very interesting to see that should he get
the required amount of delegates there are some
HRC supporters now claiming that they would not
vote for him in the GE.

I remember distinctly that they said the opposite
about 4 months ago. Yet it is the HRC supporters,
who now want unity.

Funny that!

Beacool

(30,247 posts)
59. There won't be a contested convention.
Sun May 1, 2016, 10:06 PM
May 2016

Frankly, I'm starting to get annoyed at Sanders, et al. for repeating this over and over. He said it again this morning.

I guess that Sanders won't have Hillary's class and release his delegates so that she can be nominated by acclamation.

OK, if that's how he wants to play it, let him. What will happen is that there will be a vote and she will win it. Hillary will go to the convention with the most pledged delegates and even a wide lead in the popular vote. Super delegates will not subvert the will of the people.

This constant talk of a contested convention only serves the purpose of dividing Democrats and building resentment.

sofa king

(10,857 posts)
64. Dear Bernie Folks,
Sun May 1, 2016, 11:41 PM
May 2016

Dear Bernie Folks,

Thank you for your time and your effort. I really appreciate it, and so do a lot of the rest of us. It has been absolutely amazing to see such a wonderful effort on the part of true progressives, people after my own heart, and the amazing amount of success you have achieved gives me the greatest hope for the future. I never knew so many of you were so much like me. So many brilliant young newcomers, so many grizzled yellow dogs among you; it's been great to watch you work.

None of this is particularly new to me, so it's probably a little easier to let go, maybe a little sooner than some of you. I've seen wonderful candidates come and go, sometimes with scarcely a whisper, but you folks thundered through this election.

And the results were uniformly positive: exactly as Senator Sanders said, his intent was to push the Democratic Party where it belongs, where I have always wanted it, and you've been heard. I can see it in the way Mrs. Clinton's campaign has allowed itself to embrace more good and ethical ideas than it likely would have if they didn't have a strong liberal challenge. Some echo of your words will follow Mrs. Clinton into the White House. Your voice will inform her actions.

But soon you'll have to face the fact that as great as Bernie is, he's probably not going to be the Democratic nominee this time. He's guided by strong ethics, so he's probably not going to jeopardize the election and the country by going independent, where he would wind up hurting all of you first and the rest of us soon thereafter.

It's going to hurt to see some of you angrily stomp off, and grumpily proclaim that you'll never forget. I saw a lot of people here do exactly that eight years ago, in fact, and I think it will be perfectly fair to remind them of that if they get too haughty about it. But the important thing is that most of them came back, worked hard for our common good despite their loss, and now they're finally having their day in the sun--as will you, one day.

I can barely remember what it's like to be so young and energetic and so heartbroken over something so nasty and heartless as politics. I do remember realizing that four years of Bush--the original one--would be more than a fifth of my lifetime and most of my adulthood. It was almost intolerable, and worse, I was right and they were wrong and terrible things happened and I couldn't stop them and god damn it, WHAT IS WRONG WITH FUCKING PEOPLE!?!?!

Whatever it is, it's still wrong with them, and one of the hardest things you'll have to do going forward is learn to forgive, to accept loss and try to see the way forward, to compromise when it tastes of bitter ashes, to accept some small part of what you want when the people need so much more and better.

But I know you'll do it, and you will grow wiser, and more patient, and some day, thanks to what you have done this year, things are gonna break your way--our way. In the meantime I hope you can find it within yourselves to keep moving forward, and to support the good option you'll still have, even though you won't have your choice... yet.

Thanks for everything and for goodness sake, don't give up! The world is weird and evil, and we may wind up needing Bernie Sanders even more than we already do. But if not, know that you have so many, many admirers, including me.

Your pal sk

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
68. The difference is stark
Mon May 2, 2016, 12:40 AM
May 2016

His delegates are in green and they are nice and sharp. Hers are in red and they look fuzzy and indistinct. Plus he is clearly taller and is able to hold his index finger far higher than hers. If that's not proof that he is winning, then I don't know what is.

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