2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf Clinton wins a clear majority of pledged delegates, does anyone think Sanders will be nominated?
Let's say Clinton leads 2175 to 1876 (a reasonable projection) heading into the convention. Is there anyone here who honestly thinks Sanders will be nominated?
Anyone? Anyone at all?
If so, please provide an example of when such a thing has happened and explain how that occurrence relates to the Clinton-Sanders race.
If not, can we please put an end to all of the irrelevant superdelegate threads?
Bonus question: Does anyone here honestly believe Sanders will end up with 2026 or more pledged delegates? Anyone? Anyone at all?
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)There's no way, no how, that Bernie can overcome her lead. DU has no authority to change the rules at convention. it's kind of a dumb Fantasy game.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)And the irony of the Sandernistas complaining about "undemocratic" processes and then their candidate openly briefs a plan to try and secure the nomination in the face of losing both the pledge delegate count AND the popular vote....
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The Democratic party isn't going to tell the 80 % of African Americans and 67% of Hispanics who have given Hillary her 3,000,000 vote cushion to go to Hell...
It's just not happening.
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)President Obama's claim was marginally stronger but if the Supers went with Hillary they could have done so because it was so close. They didn't because stealing the nomination from the first black presidential nominee from a major party would have done long term and irreparable damage to the party.
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)- which make health care totally unaffordable unless the US globalizes and wages go into free fall race to the bottom.
that doesn't matter at all?
AHIP and PHRMA matter, though.
Your fiction does not count. You can't base a primary on fiction. There is a winner and a loser.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)powerful and won't let it happen. We're just also very lazy and malleable and improvident. This past era when "we" torn down the very protections our grandparents created and either actively supported or ignored the development of an uberclass is a typical result. But eventually things get so bad that the slumbering fat-assed giant is awakened -- pissed, and we start pushing our enormous weight around. It's happening now, started on the left and has moved to the right. You'll see. Just don't expect anything like a fine new world any time soon from us.
As for young people having to live with trade deals,
1. The rest of us aren't dropping dead any time soon. Get over yourself. We have to live with them too, and we're not going anywhere.
2. Nothing's forever, and most definitely not political and economic agreements.
Btw, the rest of the world is industrializing, urbanizing, and expecting more, much more than their parents had. More means higher incomes and western-level wellbeing. Business has operated internationally like in some lawless wild west, aided immensely by technology, but that is slowly changing, and the pace of change will pick up. Because those people are starting to insist. Six steps lost to opposition for every eight steps forward may seem stupid and frustrating, but it still means two steps forward and it keeps happening, over and over.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)our Muslims.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)IMHO
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)countries?
would they still love her then?
Google something like this:
Trade In Services For Sustainable Development + Domestic Regulation UNCTAD
Baobab
(4,667 posts)these refs are from: http://www.ictsd.org/downloads/2008/06/dom_reg.pdf
Guidelines and Procedures for the Negotiations on Trade in Services. Adopted by the Special Session of the
Council for Trade in Services on 28 March, 2001. S/L/93 29 March 2001. (At WTO site)
Krajweski, Marcus (2003). National Regulation and Trade Liberalization in Services: The Legal Impact of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) on National Regulatory Autonomy
; Kluwer Law International, The Hague-London-New York; Mattoo Aaditya and Sauvè, Pierre, Editors (2004. Domestic Regulation and Services Trade liberalization
. World Bank and Oxford University Press; Djordjevic M (2002) Domestic Regulation and Free Trade in Services - A Balancing
Act. Legal issues on Economic Integration, vol 29, no 3; and Lang, Andrew (2004) The GATS and Regulatory
Autonomy: A Case Study of Social regulation of the Water Industry, Journal of international Economic Law
, 7(4). Scott Sinclair and Jim Grieshaber-Otto (2002) Facing the Facts: A guide to the GATS Debate, Canadian
Centre for Policy Alternatives, Ottawa
lancer78
(1,495 posts)the AA community is more pragmatic. Hell, they didn't support Obama until after he won Iowa, and came close in New Hampshire.
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)While Sanders won in NH and came close in Iowa. That is, from that perspective, the two were equally "electable" by the time primaries began to reach states where AA were a significant portion of the electorate. True, Bernie was not black, but OTOH, Bernie was not black. That is, while Obama may have had some extra attraction to the AA community by virtue of his skin color, speaking (as you say) pragmatically, even after his initial successes, there were still many people (regardless of color) who believed there was no way this country was ready to elect a Black president. Probably more so than would think, 8 years later, that the country could not elect a ____ president (fill in the blank as to what you consider Sanders' biggest liability).
Secondarily, your explanation doesn't account for why Sanders continued to struggle among the AA community (albeit less so) even at later points in the campaign where he looked like he could have a real chance.
Demsrule86
(68,555 posts)After he basically said their votes don't matter.
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)...they actually didn't say it.
What is the quote you are referring to that comes closest to saying that? I bet you can find some other far more acceptable interpretation.
Honestly, does anyone genuinely think that Sanders thinks that AA votes don't matter? As a matter of politics, it's ridiculous on its face, especially in the Democratic party. As a matter of personal conscience, his civil rights activism in the 60s and a long series of votes and speeches in congress (starting long before he had any thoughts of running for President) would seem to make his views in support of the AA community quite obvious.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Thank you in advance.
The caucasian college student isn't the universal model for enlightened voters.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)there is many very horrible reasons for that blockade.
Things like this:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.405.5725
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The URL does not match any resource in our repository.
He has spent over two hundred million dollars on his campaign. People surely know who he is and if he wasn't able to introduce himself to the American people with two hundred million dollars I don't want him anywhere near the federal budget.
okasha
(11,573 posts)uponit7771
(90,335 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)I don't want him anywhere near the federal budget."
Boom! Mic drop!
brooklynite
(94,503 posts)MineralMan
(146,287 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)If so, and it recommends a DoJ indictment, then the Superdelegates should be very nervous about voting for Clinton, as it will not only ensure a loss on the Presidential ticket but a down ticket bloodbath.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Some sage told me if you write out an indictment and put it under your pillow the Indictment Fairy will arrest Hillary Clinton.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Then if one falls, the Hillarian butthurt will be that much worse.
And if an indictment or recommendation of one comes after the convention, Democrats will be completely fucked. Fortunately the blame will fall squarely on the Clintons and the Third Way DNC, and they will be shamed out of the party for good. So there is a silver lining.
Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #18)
Post removed
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Are you 5 years old? I'm sure you got butthurt pulling that big one out of your ass.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)You are throwing around puerile epithets like "butthurt" and then suggesting others are immature. It's akin to the kid who killed his parents and then asks the court for leniency because he's an orphan.
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #39)
Post removed
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I just pointed out the irony of a person showering people with puerile epithets like "butthurt" while calling others juvenile. It's akin to being called ugly by a toad.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)You poor delicate flower.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)Mail Message
On Mon May 2, 2016, 06:28 AM an alert was sent on the following post:
I am glad you consider an indictment impossible.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1878038
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
ALERTER'S COMMENTS
The phrase "butthurt" is offensive and homophobic.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Mon May 2, 2016, 06:31 AM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I believe it refers to getting spanked. At least that is how it is most commonly used online.
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
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Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
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Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Ridiculous reason to alert. Leave it.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)yourout
(7,527 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)In the highly unlikely event that occurred your candidate would still not get the nomination. Hillary's delegates would go to Joe Biden. The Democratic electorate has looked at him and his candidacy and found him wanting.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)A populist scares the hell out of the corporatist establishment...they might see their gravy train end. So it's very possible the superdelegates, which includes lobbyists, would bypass Sanders if a Clinton indictment is recommended. While nominating Biden might save some down-ticket races, he would probably lose the GE pretty handily. He doesn't have any campaign staff in place, no funds or fundraising apparatus in place, and no volunteer lists. Sanders has everything in place if he's the nominee, Biden has nothing.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Biden would get everything Clinton has including her heterogeneous coalition and the blessing of the president.
Sanders' support is a mile deep and an inch wide. That is why he is trailing by over 3,000,000 votes!.
He has also lost the crucial swing states of FL, OH, and VA, all by double digits. In fact he was obliterated in FL and VA.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Evidently you have no knowledge of the subject.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)You picked the wrong poster to patronize. The Vermont independent's support is a mile deep and an inch wide. That is why he has lost eight of the ten most populous states in the union with California to be decided, and lost African Americans 4-1 and Hispanics 2-1.
The major battleground states in the past several elections have been Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida and he got his head handed to him in every one. He lost Florida and Virginia by profoundly embarrassing margins and North Carolina and Ohio by just merely embarrassing margins.
Read a book.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)...digging into their pockets for all they can afford. That is not shallow support. Shallow support is begging Maddie for a dollar so the plethora of wealthy donors doesn't look so bad.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont raised just $25.8 million for his campaign in April, down by more than 40 percent from the previous month, as he faces an increasingly narrow path in the race for the Democratic nomination for president.
The April total, released by his campaign on Sunday, brought Mr. Sanderss cumulative fund-raising haul to $210 million from more than 2.4 million donors.
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/01/bernie-sanderss-fund-raising-plunges-amid-campaign-woes/
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)That is about the same campaign funds raised by Clinton's billionaires.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Uncle Joe Biden would have no problem raising money shaking Hillary's and President Obama's rich donor money tree...
Trump should be worried about raising money . The usual donors will be reluctant to contribute to him because he is unpredictable.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Clinton's money tree is tapped out, they've already given the maximums. They aren't allowed to donate more. It's pretty much the same donors as Obama. Where can Biden raise $200 million or more? He can't. He'd have to run a GE campaign on the $50 million Federal Election funds he would get. Not enough.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)SMH
$2,700 per election to a Federal candidate or the candidate's campaign committee.2 Notice that the limit applies separately to each election. Primaries, runoffs and general elections are considered separate elections.
http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/citizens.shtml
Your hapless candidate has submitted himself to the Democratic electorate and they have found him wanting.This is a democratic republic and not a junta and the candidate with millions and millions less votes doesn't get to declare himself or herself the victor.
And you conveniently ignored all the Super Pac money Uncle Joe Biden can raise.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)...doubled down on their Clinton losses by backing a GE loser in Biden... especially after also their heavy losses backing Jeb. Maybe Jamie Dimon can even claim to be 'dead broke' like Clinton.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
Prior to the 2002 midterm elections, where the Republican Party saw gains in both branches of Congress, Sabato's Crystal Ball website accurately predicted the outcome in 433 of the 435 contests for the House of Representatives and 32 of 34 Senate races.[8]
In 2004, which saw Republicans retain the White House and gain seats in the House and Senate, Crystal Ball correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races (99% accuracy), missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race and two states in the Electoral College.[9]
In August 2006, Crystal Ball predicted that the Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, providing them with a majority in both chambers. Sabato's predictions proved correct: each of his 33 Senate predictions were accurate, and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by the Crystal Ball (Democrats went on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006 run-off in Texas' 23rd district).[10]
In 2006 Sabato was named the most accurate source of election predictions by MSNBC, CNBC, and Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. In 2006, he was the only national analyst who correctly predicted the exact Democratic gains in Senate and House contests.[10]
In July 2008, Crystal Ball correctly projected that Barack Obama would win the presidency in a near-landslide.[11] Sabato predicted a 364174 margin in the Electoral College, as well as the popular vote percentages.[12] The prediction was merely one point off the mark, with the actual result on November 4, 2008 being Obama 365 and McCain 173. (It did not predict an Obama win in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district.) Crystal Ball also accurately predicted 100% of all 35 Senate races, and 11 gubernatorial races correctly.[13]
In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives.[14] The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans.[15] The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.[16]
In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.[17] The projection was similar to the actual results, but Crystal Ball under-estimated Obama's number of electoral votes (332) and under-estimated Democratic victories in both the Senate (Democrats picked up two seats) and in the House (Democrats picked up eight seats).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sabato
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)It shows Clinton winning Florida...she absolutely will not. Obama barely squeaked by winning Florida, Clinton will come up well short of Obamas votes.
And if they get an obvious State like Florida so badly wrong, they've probably got all the other swing states wrong. That map is just Camp Weathervane wishful thinking.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)You are inane. I will defer to Larry Sabato over a random internet poster.
Prior to the 2002 midterm elections, where the Republican Party saw gains in both branches of Congress, Sabato's Crystal Ball website accurately predicted the outcome in 433 of the 435 contests for the House of Representatives and 32 of 34 Senate races.[8]
In 2004, which saw Republicans retain the White House and gain seats in the House and Senate, Crystal Ball correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races (99% accuracy), missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race and two states in the Electoral College.[9]
In August 2006, Crystal Ball predicted that the Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, providing them with a majority in both chambers. Sabato's predictions proved correct: each of his 33 Senate predictions were accurate, and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by the Crystal Ball (Democrats went on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006 run-off in Texas' 23rd district).[10]
In 2006 Sabato was named the most accurate source of election predictions by MSNBC, CNBC, and Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. In 2006, he was the only national analyst who correctly predicted the exact Democratic gains in Senate and House contests.[10]
In July 2008, Crystal Ball correctly projected that Barack Obama would win the presidency in a near-landslide.[11] Sabato predicted a 364174 margin in the Electoral College, as well as the popular vote percentages.[12] The prediction was merely one point off the mark, with the actual result on November 4, 2008 being Obama 365 and McCain 173. (It did not predict an Obama win in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district.) Crystal Ball also accurately predicted 100% of all 35 Senate races, and 11 gubernatorial races correctly.[13]
In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives.[14] The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans.[15] The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.[16]
In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.[17] The projection was similar to the actual results, but Crystal Ball under-estimated Obama's number of electoral votes (332) and under-estimated Democratic victories in both the Senate (Democrats picked up two seats) and in the House (Democrats picked up eight seats).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sabato
Larry Sabato is one of the most prominent political scientists in the nation.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Obama won Florida by a bit over 1% in 2008 and a bit over .5% in 2012. That was with a good turnout among minorities, youth, and liberals. Hillary may have good minority support, but will they turn out for her in Obama numbers? Doubtful. And youth and liberals will vote for her in far fewer numbers than Obama. Yet republicans will turn out. They even turn out for midterms. They turned out to vote against Obama. And if there is anyone the Republicans hate more than Obama, it's the Clintons. I don't care what some pundit living in the DC bubble says. I live here. Clinton cannot win Florida.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)They turned out to vote against Obama. And if there is anyone the Republicans hate more than Obama, it's the Clintons. I don't care what some pundit living in the DC bubble says. I live here. Clinton cannot win Florida.
Yeah, they hated Bill Clinton so much he carried the state in 1996
Dr. Larry J. Sabato is the founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He is also the University Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and has had visiting appointments at Oxford University and Cambridge University in Great Britain. A Rhodes Scholar, he received his doctorate from Oxford, and he is the author or editor of two dozen books on American politics.
Prof. Sabato directs the Center for Politics Crystal Ball website, a leader in accurately predicting elections since its inception. In 2004, the Crystal Ball notched a 99 percent accuracy rate in predicting all races for House, Senate, Governor and each states Electoral College outcome. In 2006, the Pew Research Center and the Pew Charitable Trusts Project for Excellence in Journalism recognized the Crystal Ball as the leader in the field of political predictors, noting that the site came closer than any other of the top ten potential predictors this cycle.
In 2008, the Crystal Ball came within one electoral vote of the exact tally in the Electoral College, while also correctly picking the result of every single gubernatorial and Senate race across the country. In 2010, the Crystal Ball was the first to forecast a solid Republican takeover of the House. While others were predicting a Romney victory in 2012, the Crystal Ball forecast a substantial Obama margin in the Electoral College, and ultimately missed just two states. The Crystal Ball had a combined 97% accuracy rate in forecasting the Electoral College, Senate, House and gubernatorial contests.
Earlier this year, the Crystal Ball won a Beast Best award from The Daily Beast as one of the top political sites on the web.
In 2013 Prof. Sabato won an Emmy award for the television documentary Out of Order, which he produced to highlight the dysfunctional U.S. Senate. In 2014, Prof. Sabato won a second Emmy award for the PBS documentary The Kennedy Half-Century, which covers the life, assassination, and lasting legacy of President John F. Kennedy.
In October 2013, Prof. Sabato and the Center for Politics unveiled the Kennedy Half Century project. The project consisted of a New York Times bestselling book, The Kennedy Half-Century PBS documentary, a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) available on Coursera and iTunes U, an app with the complete recordings and transcripts from Dealey Plaza on 11/22/63, and a website (www.thekennedyhalfcentury.com).
Prof. Sabato is also very active on social media. His Twitter feed (@LarrySabato) was named by Time Magazine as one of the 140 best Twitter feeds of 2014.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/staff_sabato.html
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)That was 20 years ago, and it's foolish and ignorant to assume the same voting patterns exist now. Gov Chiles ('91-'98 + Buddy MacKay briefly when Chiles died) was the last Dem Gov. Cabinet is all Repugs. Legislature went from Dem majority to a Republican super-majority. The only State-wide elected democrat is Sen Nelson. If Clinton supporters want to think she'll get the same vote % as Bill did 20 years ago, they are living in a fantasy world. I gave Obamas margins above. That is the current situation in Florida. Rather than reminisce about Bills win 20 years ago, better figure out how to replicate Obamas numbers without youth and liberal votes. I don't see a path.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Barack Obama won the state with 37% of the white vote.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/
Hillary can easily beat those demographic targets, just as Professor Sabato's model suggests.
And it is interesting that Bill Nelson whom I met when I was a student at UCF is the only Democrat elected statewide in FL. A purple senator for a purple electorate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purple_America
Oh, Hillary is much more sympatico with the Florida electorate. How the Hell does a candidate lose the third most populous state in the union 64-34?
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)And Bill Nelson is one of the reasons Fla is no longer blue. Fl Dem Party is dying under dysfunctional leadership.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)You do understand they get reelected 95% of the time, right? He wouldn't get elected Gov or president.
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)If that unlikely event occurred before the nomination, I think Bernie could possibly get the nomination. That's because, on a first ballot, everyone has to vote for one of the two of them (unless Hillary withdraws). Remember the event we're talking about is not indictment, but only a recommendation of indictment, which may or may not be acted upon. I don't think that would be enough to make Hillary withdraw. If circumstances are such that she withdraws after the nomination, I think it might go to Biden.
k8conant
(3,030 posts)...or do those pronouns point to the wrong antecedent?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)"Your candidate has submitted himself to the Democratic electorate and they have found him wanting."
I regret the vituperative language but the notion that the will of the people should be overturned chafes me. Even Republicans know better.
BootinUp
(47,141 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Any more questions?
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Where do you get your dope?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Here's one you can use: http://www.demrace.com/
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Even if it did happen Sanders would be doomed in the general. Clinton supporters would not turnout.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)...giving him a path to GE victory if some Clinton supporters don't vote for him. Clinton already loses Independants badly, and it will only get worse if an indictment falls. Her underwater favorability polls are evidence of her toxicity in the GE that her supporters are deliberately blind to.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)He'd need actual Democratic votes to win the general and it's anybody's guess what sort of independent voters would show up. Trump does well with independents. All of that is a moot point anyway, since he's already lost the nomination and will not be on the general election ballot.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Sanders would not lose 100% of Clinton supporters, just as Clinton won't lose 100% of Sanders supporters.
Polls show Independants favor Sanders 2/3 to 1/3 in the GE. Clinton is 1/3 of independant voters. Clinton cannot win with that poor showing among Independants, even if she gets 100% of Democratic votes.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Clinton voters would not turnout for Sanders if super delegates handed him the nomination even though Clinton had more pledged delegates and popular vote. In that scenario, Trump would carry independents big and win the election.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)It's over.
hellofromreddit
(1,182 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)Once hit, it's over.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Why have super delegates?
If the pledged delegates are enough to select a nominee as so many here are yacking about, then why even have super delegates?
The reason is to make sure that we nominate someone who can win in the GE. There being evidence that H can't win indies and therefore will lose the GE, then the supers are the party's last hope to ensure a GE win.
They know and most of us know it. Bernie will be the real winner!
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)We had this discussion in another thread, and I provided numerous links that back up what I'm saying. Clinton will rely on the same bloc of voters as Obama did. Predominantly POC and women. And enough white males (mostly registered Democrats) to win enough of the key swing states to top 270 electoral college votes.
Clinton is widely believed to be a heavy favorite in the general election. Most understand that hypothetical general election match-up polls mean nothing at this juncture. A 1-on-1 general election match-up results in a completely different focus and dynamic than what we have right now, which is multiple candidates vying for their party's nomination (some of whom have never been thoroughly vetted).
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)BOB is getting very popular. There are people that know how to put him on a ballot in their state. No doubt someone in every state will try this. Or someone will talk some sense into Bernie and he will run 3rd party. At this point I don't advocate this or advocate anyone vote 3rd party, I am just saying these are very likely outcomes from what I am seeing all over the net.
onenote
(42,700 posts)By the time the convention rolls around, it will be too late to get on a lot of state ballots.
rock
(13,218 posts)You have obviously never heard of Bernie math: it's the new, new math that can only be calculated by unicorns and only then if you sprinkle them with glitter (and the answer is always "Bernie wins" . So the answer to your question is, "Yes, all the (swell-named) BSers". Incidentally I strongly agree with your characterization "the irrelevant superdelegate threads" which we could do without and it would not make one iota of a difference.
I agree completely. Now I could use some Recs here!
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)and have a worryingly tenuous grasp of reality.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)the winner of the pledged should win the nomination.
So far there are a few questionable States.
Demsrule86
(68,555 posts)take and election away from voters because you can not win. If this was done Bernie loses most support and is disgraced.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)A woman won the most votes and most delegates. She was overwhelmingly chosen by women, African Americans, and other People of Color. She ran on the record of the nation's first African American president.
But let's elect a white guy instead.
Demsrule86
(68,555 posts)And he should lose too. Why he thinks he as an unearned right to the nomination based on skewed criteria (cherry picked at that) is beyond me.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Same for the latter.
However, that does not alter the role that the super delegates play in this. They hold 15% of the delegate vote and Hillary cannot and will not win without them.