Contested vs. Brokered Convention

[hellofromreddit]

Contested -- no candidate is over the magic number of pledged delegates before the convention.

Brokered -- contested convention that isn't resolved by the first vote and delegates can then trade.

Supers don't change a contested convention since the 'contested' bit comes before they can vote. But they can prevent a brokered convention.

I did my best to make sure this is correct--lots and lots of bogus info out there. Corrections are appreciated.

[fun n serious]

1. Thank you.

All signs see Hillary winning on first ballot.

[NurseJackie]

2. I concur. First ballot: Hillary is our official nominee. Cue: cheering (and crying) and balloon drop

[brooklynite]

3. I'm not sure they do a balloon drop for the nomination (I don't recall one in Charlotte)

[NurseJackie]

5. Yeah ... that's a final-night closing-gavel kind of thing, isn't it?

[brooklynite]

6. Correct...there wasn't one in Charlotte because of the last minute venue change...

...was supposed to be in the football stadium (in which case, you do what's known in the biz as a balloon lift -- I once organized one for Mike Dukakis), but got moved due to inclement weather, so they didn't have time to prep the balloons, and went with confetti cannons instead.

[Demsrule86]

7. Of course we need a balloon drop.

Of course if Sanders takes this all the way to the convention ...he is finished and so is his movement.

[Demsrule86]

8. We want a balloon drop...I love balloons.

Of course, if Sanders takes this all the way to the convention ...he is finished and so is his movement.

[JaneyVee]

21. WE THE PEOPLE DEMAND A BALLOON DROP!

[beachbum bob]

4. she needs just a couple hundred more delegates..and between them and the supers....she wins

all other talk is pure fiction.....and duping supporters for more money

[Joob]

10. Super Delegates vote at the end, so you're saying these guys can deny millions of Americans to vote.

Or even better, their vote doesn't matter? I wish what I was saying is pure fiction because the way you think is disgusting.

[dreamnightwind]

13. +1

[Tarc]

15. Superdelegates vote with their state, not at the end

[Demsrule86]

9. Great post

Maybe this will help BS understand how things work.

[Joob]

11. I can tell Bernie has a chance to win, there's like, angry push back

[INdemo]

12. Never happen

DWS and Biliary will change the rules to make sure this doesn't happen.
Hillary has wanted this for thirty years she will do whatever it takes to get it...
Then there is Bill ...he wants a 3rd term
and nothing will stop him

[Garrett78]

14. Assuming the "magic number" of pledged delegates is 2026 (i.e., a majority)...

...then Clinton will be well over the magic number. Therefore, no contested convention. And no brokered convention.

I've actually seen a couple of people suggest neither candidate will win a majority of pledged delegates. Given that there are only 2 candidates, I'd call that an epic math fail.

[Vattel]

16. Thanks, I was about to post the same sort of clarification.

The new bullshit about Sanders being delusional is sad and pathetic.

[Garrett78]

17. To be fair, claiming that there will be a contested convention is absurd.

With only 2 candidates, 1 of them is guaranteed to win a majority of pledged delegates.

[Vattel]

19. Yes, but a vote will be needed to get her the majority of all delegates.

Wikipedia: "A contested convention can also refer to a convention that does result in a first-ballot victory for someone, but where the result was not pre-ordained going into the convention." It is not pre-ordained that Clinton will win because she doesn't have enough pledged delegates to already give her the majority of all delegates.

[Garrett78]

20. There is always a vote. That's just part of the process.

If Candidate A has something like 2175 pledged delegates and Candidate B has something like 1876 pledged delegates, consider Candidate A to be "pre-ordained."

[Vattel]

22. But there is not always a vote that is not pre-ordained because one candidate already has

enough pledged candidates that no supers are needed.

[Garrett78]

23. 2008 was much closer and wasn't considered "contested."

Not that it really matters. Clinton will be the nominee. That's been clear for a long time now.

[morningfog]

24. Clinton conceded before the convention. Thus, it was not contested.

[Orsino]

18. The desperation to paint Sanders as a liar is over the top...

...or just a result of this obscure distinction.