Will Donald Trump drive Miami Cuban Americans from GOP? New poll says yes.

[Scurrilous]

Likely Cuban-American voters dislike Trump

They also are increasingly accepting of President Obama’s Cuba policy

That combination could cost the GOP its longtime Cuban-American support

<snip>

"Donald Trump is the catalyst who could force a decisive break between Miami-Dade County’s influential Cuban-American voters and the Republican Party, a new poll has found.

Local Cuban Americans dislike Trump so much — and are increasingly so accepting of renewed U.S.-Cuba ties pushed by Democratic President Barack Obama — that Trump’s likely presidential nomination might accentuate the voters’ political shift away from the GOP, according to the survey shared with the Miami Herald and conducted by Dario Moreno, a Coral Gables pollster and a Florida International University associate politics professor.

Thirty-seven percent of respondents supported Trump, a number that is still higher than the 31 percent who backed Clinton — but also “the lowest in history that any potential Republican candidate polls among this traditionally loyal demographic,” according to Moreno. He added that the results put likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton within “striking distance” of winning over the influential voting demographic. Trump won the March 15 Florida GOP primary in a rout.

“We’ve been seeing demographic changes in this community since 2004,” Moreno said, as younger voters of Cuban descent, and recent Cuban immigrants, have increasingly identified as Democrats or independents. “With Trump, the real danger is that he’s going to accelerate this realignment in Miami.”

Moreno is a Republican who has polled for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, though this poll was not conducted on either politician's behalf."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article75064787.html#storylink=cpy

[Gothmog]

1. Trump has alienated a number of groups

I am amazed that he has succeeded in alienating the Cuban American population

[HooptieWagon]

2. Author appears ignorant of Cuban-American voting patterns.

First generation, off the boat so to speak, generally still identify themselves as 'Cuban', and vote solidly Republican. Second generation usually identifies themselves as 'Cuban-American', and votes nearer to 50/50. By the third generation, they identify as just 'American', and vote predominately Democrat, as other Hispanics. Since it has been over 30 years since a large influx of Cuban immigrants, and many of the original immigrants from '59 are elderly and dying off, naturally the Cuban-American demographic will become more 2nd and 3rd generations.
I'll also note that there are a number of latinos with Cuban ancestry going back long before Castro. In Tampa for instance, many Cubans came here in the very late 1800s and early 1900s to work in the cigar industry.
IOWs, Cuban-American voting patterns are going to drift towards more Democratic with each generation until resembling Latinos in general. Although they may dislike Trump, he's not 'driving' Cuban-Americans to the Democratic Party...it's a natural occurrance.