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pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
Mon May 2, 2016, 04:23 PM May 2016

Indiana has had a record high early turnout this year, which could affect exit polls.

People who vote early aren't canvassed in the exit polls, so this may or may not affect results, depending on whether early voters vote in a similar pattern to today's voters.

The other factor is that 2014 had a "dismal" turnout, so that sample precincts chosen based on 2014's results might not be as predictive as they should be.

We'll find out tonight, but this is an open primary so I think Bernie could win -- though they'll divide the delegates.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article74455887.html

INDIANAPOLIS
More Indiana residents have cast their votes early for the state's primary election than any of the previous nomination contests during the same time period in at least two decades.

The Indiana Secretary of State's Election Division reported Thursday that more than 157,000 early votes had been cast between April 5 and Wednesday. That's nearly 30,000 more for the same period for the 2008 primary, the last one without a presidential incumbent.

Observers have credited the increased turnout to the hotly contested presidential primaries from both Democrats and Republicans.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, of Vermont, is challenging former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, while the Republican nod pits business giant Donald Trump against Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Republicans also will choose nominees for an open U.S. Senate seat and two congressional seats.

http://www.in.gov/sos/elections/2402.htm

All registered voters in Indiana are eligible to vote absentee-in-person at the county election board office beginning 28 days before Election Day.

In order to vote absentee-by-mail, one of the following must apply:
You have a specific, reasonable expectation that you will be absent from the county on Election Day during the entire 12 hours that the polls are open (6 am until 6 pm).
You have a disability.
You are at least 65 years of age.

SNIP

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Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
1. It won't matter. The calls of cheating, collusion, corruption, voter suppression, voter fraud, etc..
Mon May 2, 2016, 04:26 PM
May 2016

... will be endless. Just as they always are.

JudyM

(29,250 posts)
4. You have that copy&paste action locked and loaded, it's comical to see you post the same thing
Mon May 2, 2016, 04:39 PM
May 2016

on every possible thread. Thanks for adding to the level of discourse around here.

NWCorona

(8,541 posts)
5. Come on now
Mon May 2, 2016, 04:40 PM
May 2016

No one is challenging the last round of primaries because they went smoothly. That can't be said about the ones we have questions about.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
3. I voted today.
Mon May 2, 2016, 04:36 PM
May 2016

The line at my early voting place was long. It took about a 1/2 hour to vote. People said that on Saturday the wait was 2 hours.

GOP and Democratic commercials run here nonstop. I can't wait to see what the finally turnout numbers are tomorrow night.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)
7. But exit polls are accurate to within 0.0001%
Mon May 2, 2016, 04:45 PM
May 2016

They can be used to prosecute/execute offenders. I read that here, it must be accurate.

 

ViseGrip

(3,133 posts)
10. Exit polling is EXIT polling, not part of EV. Early Vote does not 'pervert' the exit polling.
Mon May 2, 2016, 05:49 PM
May 2016

Only kabooki memory card numbers in the voting machines.

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
11. And that is the problem. A poll of people at the exits doesn't give an accurate picture
Mon May 2, 2016, 05:53 PM
May 2016

of the outcome if the demographics of people who vote early or absentee are not the same as those who wait till the last day.

This has been a problem in this primary season because older voters are more likely to vote early or absentee than young voters -- and Bernie and Hillary have an age gap in their support.

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