Republicans have a massive electoral map problem that has nothing to do with Donald Trump

[SidDithers]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/republicans-have-a-massive-electoral-map-problem-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-donald-trump/

Politico reported today on a Florida poll conducted for a business group in the state that shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 13 points and Ted Cruz by nine.

Why is that important? Because if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. It's that simple.

Here's what that map would look like:



And here's the underlying math. If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida's 29 and you get 271. Game over.

Sid

[auntpurl]

1. Sorry, off-topic: what's up with New Hampshire?

I must not have been paying attention, but I didn't realise it was a red state. How did that happen, surrounded by its liberal New England brethren?

Back on topic: this is great news!

[Garrett78]

2. NH isn't one of the 19 (plus DC) that the Dem candidate has won each of the last 6 elections.

Bush won NH in 2000.

NH, NM, NV, OH and other states that are red on that map will likely be 'blue' in 2016.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

4. New Hampshire is where all right-wing nuts get exiled if they insist on being up here

Hence, Kelly Ayotte.

[Garrett78]

3. As I wrote yesterday, some overthink the path to 270.

There are very few swing states, though there may be more this year if Trump is the Republican Party nominee. The electoral college map is very favorable for Democrats.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

5. Clinton will win NH, VA, OH, IA, NM and likely NV and CO

Heck, she will probably win NC, KY and maybe finally GA.

But it's good to know this is worst case scenario.

[Attorney in Texas]

6. Except that Hillary is disliked and distrusted by independents and millennial Democrats at a rate

no Democrat from 1992 to 2012 has ever been disliked.

If the Republicans nominated Kasich, Rubio, Walker, Ryan, etc., any of them would likely beat Hillary because she is so disliked and distrusted.

Thank the spaghetti monster that they will nominate Trump or Cruz, the two worst potential nominees in a generation. That gives Democrats a chance even if we fuck up and nominate the least well liked and least trusted Democratic candidate in the history of polling.