2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumYes, Bernie Sanders can force a contested convention.
With the Democratic presidential nomination system working the way it does, there are essentially two possible outcomes: A candidate will either win in a blowout, or he or she will need superdelegate votes to gain a majority.
The reason for this is simple: Fifteen percent of all of the Democratic delegates are unbound superdelegates. So unless you have about an 18 percentage-point lead among delegates by the time the voting wraps up, you'll need some superdelegates to put you over the top. This makes the difference between a close race and a blowout a little murky which can be advantageous to the underdog.
Right now, Hillary Clinton has about a 10 percentage-point delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. (For comparison: Barack Obama's pledged delegate lead was only about four percentage points by the end of the 2008 race.) The current margin is not likely to change much between now and the end of the contest, with the two likely to play to a draw in California, Clinton to win big in New Jersey and D.C., and Sanders to triumph in smaller states between now and the end of the race. For it to change significantly in Sanders's favor, he'd need to do very, very well in California and New Jersey in particular, a promise that he has issued often and delivered rarely.
...
...he (Bernie) said. "She will need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in Philadelphia. In other words, the convention will be a contested contest."
That's true mostly because, unlike in 2008, Sanders will contest it. Eight years ago, Clinton conceded the race before the convention, recognizing that trying to fight her way to victory on the convention floor was likely to fail, despite her having a slight lead in the popular vote. But Clinton realized the damage that could be done to the party and perhaps herself so she didn't.
Sanders doesn't share the former sentiment, as he has made clear. He was an independent until he decided to run for president, and his goal during his campaign has been to upend the system, into which a convention floor fight fits neatly.
But that doesn't mean he has any real shot at winning.
...
Lots more at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/yes-bernie-sanders-can-force-a-contested-convention-that-doesnt-mean-he-can-win-one/
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My commentary is in the form of the bold and underlined text.
Did you read the post? Response doesn't seem to correspond to the article's content.
moriah
(8,311 posts)Is to use the "excerpt" function for quoted text from articles. If you need a tutorial on how to do that (format a news story so it's obviously not your work for people who may be reading DU from their {legitimate. not-shill, for the record, just so everyone knows that's NOT what I am implying} jobs and so may not catch what's you and what's quoted), the format used in Latest Breaking News is very helpful, and I believe there is a pinned post in that forum.
It's also probably quoting a little more than fair use copyright allows -- generally, 4-5 paragraphs.
Feel free to PM if there isn't a pinned post like I thought, and I'd be happy to dig up more info on some of the lesser-used features (I personally love it).
Dem2
(8,166 posts)Though other times I can't tell the difference.
I also commented below the excerpt (which is indeed properly indented) stating what part was my commentary where I added emphasis. It looks good on my phone too.
moriah
(8,311 posts)But we all have our own way, and if you hadn't known about it, wanted to be helpful. I promise. I use the mobile format, but on a tablet.
Does this look awful to you?
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Game and Fish says Mountain Lions are in Arkansas but aren't breeding
By Elicia Dover, Thursday, September 10th, 2015
....
George Butler of Eureka Springs says he and his wife have seen a female mountain lion and a cub.
"We sat here and watched it and watched the young one come and raised up out of the grass and go so far and come back down. And it was following its mamma because we had just seen the mamma go out of the grass," Butler said.
But the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission insists that they need photographic or other proof.
http://katv.com/archive/game-and-fish-says-mountain-lions-are-in-arkansas-but-arent-breedng
I just took a look at LBR, and it looks like they changed the format. Perhaps it looks bad kn some mobile devices. So total mea culpa, was just trying to be helpful.
Dem2
(8,166 posts)I can see the background color in excerpt on the monitor I use here at work (which I prefer), but I think other devices look different. I may try excerpt again - never know! I do appreciate the help though, just wanted to be sure you knew I wasn't a novice without being rude, which may not have come across well on these here internets.
moriah
(8,311 posts)... and loving DU but being more active in election seasons, like most here, so may have missed changes...like I did.... heh
And knowing that it can take years to learn about every function...
... and being awkward socially anyway. If I sounded rude or condescending, I apologize.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)he will lose on the first vote. Would it be worth it?
Begging for votes from super delegates who have been smeared as corrupt? I don't see how that works.
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)enjoy spending the rest of his days as the lowest-ranking minority member of the Senate's Sewage and Waste Disposal Committee.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)delegates.
There will be no contest. Pledged delegates can not switch. Super Delegates are not going to go against the will and voters of the Democratic Party.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)That's why Clinton and her supporters don't understand the Sanders campaign. Their support for Clinton is based on the belief that she personally deserves it and because it's her time. They support her, not any particular set of principles that she represents.
Sanders support is not like that, they are about the policy, principles and the future of the party, the individual exemplifying them is almost immaterial.
Like today, in 2008 there were a great many policy and principle goals that could have been achieved by forcing a vote... but she couldn't think of any.
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)at the uncanny ability of Bernie supporters to penetrate the minds of Hillary supporters. It is here on DU that I heard that if I support Hillary it is because I want the country to move to the right (imagine my surprise as a lifelong progressive when I was informed of my political leanings in this manner). Now I learn that I do not support any principles but just think Hillary is so deserving and that it's her time. I had not realized that at all! I just thought I supported her because she has a good progressive track record, a good platform, and solid understanding of how government works, and with her gender being a nice bonus! Silly me. I should have come to you first so that I could have understood what is REALLY motivating me.
Thank you, dear Bernie supporters, you oh-so principled ones, for being so astute as to know what motivates us. How would we ever understand ourselves if it wasn't for you?
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)I'm not sure Bernie or some of his supporters care about the Democratic party. let me explain.
There is no chance Bernie will get ahead in delegates. He will be behind going into the convention. This means that despite his arguments and pledges of integrity he will need to sway superdelegates to support him because ...... well may be he has momentum - see he almost closed the gap with Hillary. It seems to me that this man will say and do anything to win.
Skink
(10,122 posts)Why are people so afraid of a little Democracy in action.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Skink
(10,122 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)is that how democracy works in your mind?
msongs
(67,366 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)I'm starting to think that is about right with Weaver in control of Sanders.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)moriah
(8,311 posts)... people who are doing the total anti-Establishment vote deciding to vote for him in the Primary rather than Trump -- because the Republicans likely WILL be facing an actual Contested Convention by their rules, or at least Donald doesn't have it locked yet. And it keeps interest in the Democratic Primary high.
I applaud this move if for no other reason than, in states that allow the ratfucking possible in open primaries, that it makes it harder for the Republicans to get a nominee on first vote and leaves them disorganised longer.
Democrats, on the other hand, can unify quickly if Trump doesn't get a majority of Republican delegates.
It's too late to change the rules for this election now, though.