Nate Silver: despite polls, Indiana demographics and open primary favor Sanders.

[pnwmom]

But because of proportional delegates, whatever the outcome is won't make much of a difference in the race.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/indiana-primary-presidential-election-2016/

HARRY ENTEN 6:04 PM

I’ve become a broken record this primary season, but let me say it again: it’s all about delegates. And on the Democratic side, elected delegates are awarded proportionally. That makes it very difficult for one state to change the trajectory of the race. You can see that by doing the math in allocating the 83 delegates up for grabs in Indiana. If Clinton wins in Indiana by 15 percentage points, she’ll have to win 34 percent of the remaining elected delegates to capture a majority of the elected delegates by the end of the primary season. If Sanders wins Indiana by 15 percentage points, Clinton would need to win 35 percent of the remaining elected delegates to take a majority of the elected delegates by the end of the primary season. Either way, the math won’t really change after the Indiana primary on the Democratic side.

SNIP

NATE SILVER

Polls Favor Clinton But Demographics May Favor Sanders In Indiana'

I wish we’d published this a little sooner, but our demographic model suggests that Clinton isn’t all that safe in Indiana despite polls showing her with a lead over Sanders. In fact, the demographic model we published last week, which “called” all five states right in the “Northeast primaries,” would have Sanders winning Indiana by 7 percentage points, since it’s a predominantly white state holding an open primary.

[onehandle]

1. We already have a nominee.

So meh.

[Garrett78]

2. As I've written elsewhere, it fits the profile of a Sanders state.

If he doesn't win Indiana, it could indicate that some of his support has dried up.

[UMTerp01]

3. Exactly!! Which is why I find it funny they are trying to play up Indiana for Dems

But of course they need a narrative, even if its a false one to keep the ratings going. Again, that doesn't mean I think Sanders should drop out because he shouldn't. He should campaign all the way until the last state votes.