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qdouble

(891 posts)
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:46 PM May 2016

Bernie lost among democrats 54-46% according to exit poll. All primaries should be closed primaries

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/in/Dem

New York and other states have it right. Bernie would be getting slaughtered even worse than he is now if outsiders had no say in the parties choice. What do you think?
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Bernie lost among democrats 54-46% according to exit poll. All primaries should be closed primaries (Original Post) qdouble May 2016 OP
Wow, at least Cali is closed to Republican voters. bettyellen May 2016 #1
Including unaffiliated is effectively the same as completely open. pat_k May 2016 #10
Indiana was open- it is Cali that does not allow Republicans- it is a "hybrid system". Sorry if it bettyellen May 2016 #15
I suspect both parties now agree with QDouble, as the party Hortensis May 2016 #112
3 % of voters identified as Republican TSIAS May 2016 #70
Wel now that Trump is a done deal that number could climb.... bettyellen May 2016 #71
It's more representative of the GE Jester Messiah May 2016 #2
HUUUUUGE Red Flag and they know it. JimDandy May 2016 #35
Agree on both counts. CentralCoaster May 2016 #37
She's won the majority of open primaries. Where's the issue? ContinentalOp May 2016 #45
Bullshit. 70% of states have open primaries. pat_k May 2016 #3
Yep, not one peep about open primaries before, until Sanders started clocking Hillary's block. n/t JimDandy May 2016 #36
Clocking her block? ContinentalOp May 2016 #61
For a candidate that your team said would never get out of the Iowa JimDandy May 2016 #65
My "team"? OK ContinentalOp May 2016 #66
Your post needs this ... JoePhilly May 2016 #117
Make sure you orient yourself correctly JimDandy May 2016 #122
Not one peep about closed primaries ... NanceGreggs May 2016 #84
Good luck winning the general election with "Dems only". RichVRichV May 2016 #86
Clinton isn't winning "dems only" ContinentalOp May 2016 #92
Check the 2008 primary exit polls. RichVRichV May 2016 #95
Why 2008 and not 2012 when he didn't win independents? ContinentalOp May 2016 #96
You act as if there are no Democratic leaning Independents. RichVRichV May 2016 #98
Perhaps you are unaware ... NanceGreggs May 2016 #100
You are absolutely right. RichVRichV May 2016 #121
My state NY annavictorious May 2016 #107
Lol northernsouthern May 2016 #4
Next you will be wanting on Dems and Repubs to vote in the GE artislife May 2016 #5
The idea is to pick a candidate to actually win the general election DefenseLawyer May 2016 #6
^ This. AzDar May 2016 #16
Why is this so hard for them? Barack_America May 2016 #28
Didn't you make a lengthy post about woolldog May 2016 #39
I know which of you I would rather see leave DJ13 May 2016 #44
Are you asking people to leave? northernsouthern May 2016 #52
^== Well said! IdaBriggs May 2016 #32
The Superdelegates are quietly wrestling with this fact. JimDandy May 2016 #38
Well since she has won most of the open primaries I think we have done just that! ContinentalOp May 2016 #46
She has lost the Independent vote all over the country. RichVRichV May 2016 #85
Obama won without winning independents in 2012 ContinentalOp May 2016 #89
You act as if the Independent vote is a monolith. RichVRichV May 2016 #91
You seem to be the one treating the independent voters like a monolith ContinentalOp May 2016 #94
Look at post 85. I broke down the Independent votes for all the states that were close in 2012, RichVRichV May 2016 #97
No he didn't. RichVRichV May 2016 #119
Independents couldn't vote in Florida RockaFowler May 2016 #108
Exit polls. RichVRichV May 2016 #120
The idea is that if we let Republicans vote they will do the opposite. No sale. bettyellen May 2016 #60
So you actually think "Operation Chaos" is a thing? DefenseLawyer May 2016 #116
You're such a charmer. I bet you win hearts on the campaign trail. bettyellen May 2016 #123
what a baffling clutch of sore winners at camp weathervane Warren Stupidity May 2016 #7
Such an inclusive and inviting party you got there. yodermon May 2016 #8
I agree. Sparkly May 2016 #9
It is a good thing only Democrats are allowed to vote in the GE awake May 2016 #11
hehehe TheDormouse May 2016 #13
Exactly! nt Raine May 2016 #23
By the fall, it's a different election Sparkly May 2016 #25
Obama won without independents ContinentalOp May 2016 #47
In 2008 Obama TM99 May 2016 #80
How long should someone be registered as Dem to be able to vote TheDormouse May 2016 #12
What do I think? casperthegm May 2016 #14
I'm a Bernie supporter but I agree hollowdweller May 2016 #17
Yes - let's only let Dems vote for the nominee. And let's not let Independents vote for the Dem Nanjeanne May 2016 #18
Good point. Urchin May 2016 #68
Sounds like Sanders is the right candidate to grow the party! Ash_F May 2016 #19
Bernie got 101000 votes from independents, Hillary about 43000 Dem2 May 2016 #20
How, um, democratic of you. Yep. Let the nominee be decided by 26% of the electorate. Luminous Animal May 2016 #21
Some of those non-Democrats would vote for Sanders in the GE were he to be nominated. Garrett78 May 2016 #22
Naw, that would be foolish. Independents will determine the GE. Peace Patriot May 2016 #24
They didn't determine the GE last time. Why would they now? ContinentalOp May 2016 #48
The only rules the HRC folks want enforced... Yurovsky May 2016 #26
. Sparkly May 2016 #27
yep - closed DrDan May 2016 #29
No paulthompson May 2016 #30
She has won the majority of open primaries, so how do you figure he would win if they all were open? ContinentalOp May 2016 #49
I didn't realize Indiana was a caucus state. SheilaT May 2016 #57
Here's the breakdown ContinentalOp May 2016 #59
You said, and I quote SheilaT May 2016 #69
I meant in terms of a category. ContinentalOp May 2016 #75
One problem paulthompson May 2016 #73
Ah right, the "south doesn't count" argument. ContinentalOp May 2016 #77
Hey CO, we're going to agree here! JimDandy May 2016 #82
State for state though she wins either way. ContinentalOp May 2016 #87
Again, the real difference is the kind of voter they each are getting... JimDandy May 2016 #88
Yeah, slicing and dicing the electorate can be interesting. ContinentalOp May 2016 #90
Catch up with you later... JimDandy May 2016 #93
Disagree paulthompson May 2016 #101
No. The Midway Rebel May 2016 #31
Then why did Bernie join one? GulfCoast66 May 2016 #58
"Those types" are citizens too. The Midway Rebel May 2016 #74
Maybe pmorlan1 May 2016 #33
On that point I do agree. Beacool May 2016 #34
Democrats are a third of voters. bunnies May 2016 #40
The Democratic party does not need or want Independents! The party will summon them when ... slipslidingaway May 2016 #41
I love how you guys need a rigged game to win passiveporcupine May 2016 #42
It's completely impossible to hold closed primaries in states that cali May 2016 #43
Unfortunately, the Repub party in Idaho actually did force the state to register voters by party JimDandy May 2016 #63
Oh boo hoo whatchamacallit May 2016 #50
Slaughtered? Such vile, destructive language choices you guys choose. Why is that? nt Live and Learn May 2016 #51
Only if the GE is also closed to anyone not reg'd Dem (or living in Brooklyn) GreatGazoo May 2016 #53
Then we shouldn't have Jbradshaw120 May 2016 #54
You're confusing democrats with Democrats. Cheese Sandwich May 2016 #55
Well of course! SheilaT May 2016 #56
All primaries should be open. The right to vote for a candidate that inspires B Calm May 2016 #62
I think closed primaries should be completely funded by the party that wants to exclude people FrodosPet May 2016 #64
Maybe The National Election Urchin May 2016 #67
Here is what I think LostOne4Ever May 2016 #72
...and get rid of voting machines. nt Nyan May 2016 #81
More reasons all primaries should be OPEN. basselope May 2016 #76
I think Exit Polls are Bullshit Silver_Witch May 2016 #78
All primaries and caucuses should be open. It would be far more democratic. Tierra_y_Libertad May 2016 #79
I guess you resent his win in Indiana? Betty Karlson May 2016 #83
and she still lost. how would the general be better for her? pansypoo53219 May 2016 #99
If all democratic primaries should be closed, then all democrats should pay for them Chezboo May 2016 #102
Register properly MFM008 May 2016 #103
Yea, that's such a "smart" way to choose a candidate for the GE. pdsimdars May 2016 #104
This message was self-deleted by its author fourcents May 2016 #105
Bernie lost among democrats 54-46% according to exit poll. All primaries should be closed primaries jmousso75 May 2016 #106
Nancy Pelosi's daughter Christine Pelosi Eric J in MN May 2016 #109
The the party needs to pick up 100% of the cost Duckhunter935 May 2016 #110
Spoken by another person who won't look too far back to properly judge history... MrMickeysMom May 2016 #111
What the hell is an "outsider"? Someone who didn't go through the secret Democratic rituals? Armstead May 2016 #113
Good thing only "real Democrats" get to vote in the General Election! 99Forever May 2016 #114
It's up to the states how they set up their primaries. yardwork May 2016 #115
K&R mcar May 2016 #118

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
10. Including unaffiliated is effectively the same as completely open.
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:53 PM
May 2016

And in Indiana, I don't think they include party affiliation in the registration, so how the hell do they have a "closed primary"?

And North Dakota doesn't have a registration system at all. You just show up at the polls with some sort of ID.

Give it a rest.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
15. Indiana was open- it is Cali that does not allow Republicans- it is a "hybrid system". Sorry if it
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:55 PM
May 2016

offends you that open primaries can be fucked with by Republicans- but it is how that works. Especially now.
Take a nap.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
112. I suspect both parties now agree with QDouble, as the party
Wed May 4, 2016, 06:44 AM
May 2016

leaders in NY emphatically did, on the virtues of closed primaries in today's shabby, unprincipled electoral environment where many outsiders come in not to support the party but to subvert the will of its members.

It seems very likely that both parties in many states will be encouraging their legislatures to change to closed primaries to limit malignant subversion. States like IN and ND may well choose to remain as they are.

As for independents, why should their rights to vote in a party's primary be MORE important than the rights of that party's own members to choose their nominee? Independents always have the choice of registering for a party if they want to vote in its primaries. In fact, they currently have most all of the next two years to register for the next election.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
71. Wel now that Trump is a done deal that number could climb....
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:23 AM
May 2016

I thought it was lie 6% in Ohio. Hmmmm.

 

Jester Messiah

(4,711 posts)
2. It's more representative of the GE
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:49 PM
May 2016

Guess Hil can't quite close the deal when everyone gets to vote. Shouldn't that be a huge red flag?

 

CentralCoaster

(1,163 posts)
37. Agree on both counts.
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:15 PM
May 2016

And would add that she had her list of naughty and nice and her war chest.

On a level playing field she'd be defeated in very short order.

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
3. Bullshit. 70% of states have open primaries.
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:49 PM
May 2016

How come open primaries have been fine every year until this one?

36 states have a Democratic primary or caucus that is:
-- Completely open to all registered voters.
-- Open to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
-- Open only to registered Democrats, but voter can change on the same day.

If you're interested in remaining elections by type:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511885105

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
36. Yep, not one peep about open primaries before, until Sanders started clocking Hillary's block. n/t
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:12 PM
May 2016

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
65. For a candidate that your team said would never get out of the Iowa
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:40 AM
May 2016

starting block, yes, he is now "clocking her block" with his 19th state win today. And it was also your camp's narrative that: "Bernie is only winning because the states he wins in have open contests that allow Independents to vote."

You all might want to coordinate your talking points.



ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
66. My "team"? OK
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:48 AM
May 2016

19 wins vs. 25 wins. 1370 vs 1665 pledged delegates. 41 vs. 498 superdelegates. 9 million vs. 12 million popular votes. Maybe I just don't understand what "clocking her block" means. I thought you meant beating. Which he isn't doing by any metric.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
117. Your post needs this ...
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:06 AM
May 2016

.... the goal posts are easier to move if you put wheels on it.



Hillary is winning more open primaries, and closed primaries than Bernie is. He's losing. Just a fact.

But feel free t push the goal posts to a new location as necessary.

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
122. Make sure you orient yourself correctly
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:14 PM
May 2016

next time you wander into a post, so you don't get lost again

NanceGreggs

(27,813 posts)
84. Not one peep about closed primaries ...
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:39 AM
May 2016

... until Bernie supporters started realizing Bernie doesn't do as well when it's "Dems only".

Do a search for posts from 2004 and 2008, and look at the ones complaining about closed primaries.

Oh, that's right - there are none.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
86. Good luck winning the general election with "Dems only".
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:04 AM
May 2016

It's not happening without support from the left leaning Independents. No candidate can win the presidency on just their party vote anymore. And you can't just demand they fall in line like us good Democrats. She has time to try and earn their votes, but right now her numbers with them are abysmal.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
92. Clinton isn't winning "dems only"
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:26 AM
May 2016

Even when Sanders wins the majority of the independent vote it's not like Clinton gets 0% of it. And certainly some independent Sanders voters will switch to Clinton when she gets the nomination. And some non-zero percentage of the ones who won't switch are probably people who usually vote green or other third party and didn't vote for Obama. She's doing fine with the coalition that won us the white house for the past two elections.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
95. Check the 2008 primary exit polls.
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:33 AM
May 2016

Even in states Obama lost he won the majority of Independents, just like Bernie is doing now. Hillary isn't winning the Obama coalition, not even close. Right now that general election coalition is fractured and there is no proof she can recreate it in the general election.


I'm glad the unsubstantiated belief that Independents will just fall in line when the time comes gives you peace. I don't share that same sense of comfort. Right now what I see from the data is a hard fall come November if we don't adjust.


-CNN 2008 Democratic Primary exit polls

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
96. Why 2008 and not 2012 when he didn't win independents?
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:36 AM
May 2016

Because in between those two elections a little something called the tea party happened to swell the ranks of "independent" voters with people who are never going to vote for a democratic socialist let alone a Clinton!

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
98. You act as if there are no Democratic leaning Independents.
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:50 AM
May 2016

The Democratic voting block and Republican voting block are close to the same size. If all the Independents were Tea Partiers then we would never win another election. In reality a substantial amount of the Independent vote leans left. But there is no guarantees that they will turn out for us in a given election. This is why we lose, lack of turnout.


The reason I told you to look at 2008 primaries and not 2012 primaries is because he ran unopposed in the 2012 primary. Good luck getting valid voting data from that one.

NanceGreggs

(27,813 posts)
100. Perhaps you are unaware ...
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:59 AM
May 2016

... that a primary, whereby Democrats elect their Party's candidate, is not the same as a GE, whereby all are free to vote for their candidate of choice.

Two very different things; two very different processes.



RichVRichV

(885 posts)
121. You are absolutely right.
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:02 AM
May 2016

In the general election Independents play a much larger role, not all states are in play for us, and some states play a critical role. The general election is much more strategic than the primary. Some of us are paying attention to what November will look like.

 

annavictorious

(934 posts)
107. My state NY
Wed May 4, 2016, 06:25 AM
May 2016

has had closed primaries for as long as I can remember. No gaming, no party raiding, no parachuting in, no nonsense in NY.
I'm a party member, so it's never been a problem.

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
5. Next you will be wanting on Dems and Repubs to vote in the GE
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:51 PM
May 2016

Both parties are imploding.

Oh well. Everything has a life cycle.

 

DefenseLawyer

(11,101 posts)
6. The idea is to pick a candidate to actually win the general election
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:52 PM
May 2016

Not to find the most popular member of your private club.

Barack_America

(28,876 posts)
28. Why is this so hard for them?
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:04 PM
May 2016

When independents support a candidate who supports your party's (supposed) core platform positions...you pick that candidate.

But no, we're going with the corporate-sponsored moderate Republican.

Just fucking awesome.

 

northernsouthern

(1,511 posts)
52. Are you asking people to leave?
Tue May 3, 2016, 11:37 PM
May 2016

Or are you just mimicking the DNC with trying to block voters that they can not bribe?

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
38. The Superdelegates are quietly wrestling with this fact.
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:15 PM
May 2016

Maybe win the primary with Hillary, or definitely win the GE with Sanders.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
85. She has lost the Independent vote all over the country.
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:56 AM
May 2016

Including in every single close state from 2012. Open primary, closed primary, it hasn't mattered. People who identify as Independent are largely rejecting her and they make up 40% of the electorate.


Independent votes in swing state primaries:

Florida - Bernie: 55%, Hillary: 44% (Trump got ~68% more Independent votes than Hillary)
Ohio - Bernie: 66%, Hillary: 33% (Bernie had about same Independent votes as Trump)
Virginia - Bernie: 58%, Hillary: 42% (Bernie had more Independent votes than Trump)
North Carolina - Bernie: 58%, Hillary: 34% (Bernie got ~45% more Independent votes than Trump)
Nevada - Bernie: 71%, Hillary: 23% (Bernie got at least 50% more Independent votes than Trump)
Iowa - Bernie: 69%, Hillary: 26% (no vote totals released for Democrats)
New Hampshire - Bernie: 73%, Hillary: 25% (Bernie got ~67% more Independent votes than Trump)
Pennsylvania - Bernie: 72%, Hillary: 26% (Trump got ~132% more Independent votes than Hillary)
Wisconsin - Bernie: 72%, Hillary: 28% (Bernie got ~59% more Independent votes than Trump)



Hillary is a deeply flawed candidate that will face serious issues in the general election. Spin it however you want, the numbers aren't lying. She can't win the general off of Democrats alone, and she's currently not winning over the Independents.


-CNN exit polls

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
89. Obama won without winning independents in 2012
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:17 AM
May 2016

and Clinton is winning the majority of open primaries.

Maybe look at it the other way around. The general election is not a caucus, and if we eliminated caucuses, Sanders wouldn't be doing nearly as well as he is. 11 of the 19 races he won were caucuses. 11 of the 25 races she won were open primaries. Which of those looks more like the GE to you?

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
91. You act as if the Independent vote is a monolith.
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:26 AM
May 2016

It's not. You take away the Independent vote from Obama's numbers and he loses the election big time. Hillary isn't just losing the Independent vote like Obama lost the Independent vote (actually he won it in a number of states), if she was we would probably be ok. No, she is getting destroyed in the Independent vote by both Bernie and Trump.



The simple fact is the majority of Democrats who voted for Bernie in the primary would vote for Hillary in the general. The majority of Democrats who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for Bernie in the general. Those are your reliable voters. However neither candidate has anywhere near enough votes off of Democrats alone to win the general election. Bernie has proven he can draw large swaths of Independent voters all over the country, and particularly in battle ground states. Hillary hasn't, she comes up substantially short against Trump and substantially short of where Obama was in 2012.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
94. You seem to be the one treating the independent voters like a monolith
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:32 AM
May 2016

A huge chunk of those Trump indies are tea baggers who would never vote for Clinton or Sanders. Some percentage of Sanders indies are probably greens and other third party or nonvoters who don't usually vote for democrats anyway. It's not like all independent voters are up for grabs by all of these candidates.

I don't know, I'm not going to go through the exit polls state by state, but I'd be curious to see some proof of your assertions. Where are the problem states where she is getting "destroyed" because of the independent vote?

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
97. Look at post 85. I broke down the Independent votes for all the states that were close in 2012,
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:45 AM
May 2016

including how they fall in comparison to Trump's Independent vote draws in the Republican primaries. The most disconcerting is Florida where neither Bernie nor Hillary are close to him (though Bernie is a lot closer). In every other state Bernie is doing better against him than Obama did against Romney in 2012. Hillary is getting destroyed in those battle ground states on Independent voters. And I mean at levels where even a strong turnout on party votes isn't likely to overcome it.


A huge chunk of those Trump indies are tea baggers who would never vote for Clinton or Sanders.

No they will vote for Trump. So we better have our own stock of Independents to counter them.


Some percentage of Sanders indies are probably greens and other third party or nonvoters who don't usually vote for democrats anyway.

So the strategy is to go for the candidate that can't draw in these additional votes. Let's just lose them, who needs them anyways.


It's not like all independent voters are up for grabs by all of these candidates.

If a large amount of the Independent vote wasn't up for grabs then the same party would win election after election. As it stands the two major parties tend to alternate presidents. Guess which party currently holds the office. Take the Independent vote for granted at our own peril.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
119. No he didn't.
Wed May 4, 2016, 10:13 AM
May 2016

Without Independent voters Obama loses 2012. Independents voters vote in the general whether you want it or not. Independents will be voting for Trump, in large numbers based on results. We better have our own Independents if we expect to counter.


As for cuacus versus primary, take that up with the Democratic party. They chose the vote types. Obviously they consider both valid. Who is voting is more useful info than how people are voting. And according to your own stats Bernie has won a non-negligible number of primaries (42% of his wins). Sounds like he does ok in them.


Open or close, primary or caucus, Hillary is losing the Independent voter. That is a problem.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
120. Exit polls.
Wed May 4, 2016, 10:54 AM
May 2016

They are asking voters to identify based on party affiliation. These are people who switched to Democrat in time to vote in the closed primaries but identify as Independent.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
7. what a baffling clutch of sore winners at camp weathervane
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:52 PM
May 2016

Look, your horrible candidate is still going to win the nomination, unless she manages to get disqualified somehow, so just stop with the bitter nonsense about independent voters.

YOU NEED THEM TO WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION. What part of that do you not understand?

yodermon

(6,143 posts)
8. Such an inclusive and inviting party you got there.
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:53 PM
May 2016

Is it a club? Or a set of values & principles for government?
Oh, it's a club.
Gotcha.

Sparkly

(24,149 posts)
9. I agree.
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:53 PM
May 2016

If it's an independent candidate with independent voters, go for it. The Democratic party is not helped by this.

awake

(3,226 posts)
11. It is a good thing only Democrats are allowed to vote in the GE
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:53 PM
May 2016

oh wait I just realized no one can win in the fall with out the votes of independents. If one can not win independents in the spring how can they win them in the fall?

Sparkly

(24,149 posts)
25. By the fall, it's a different election
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:02 PM
May 2016

Because the RNC would mop the floor with Sanders -- sorry. There is a REASON they have left him alone, and only attacked Clinton. They would love to run against him.

 

TM99

(8,352 posts)
80. In 2008 Obama
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:52 AM
May 2016

had the independent voters in very large amounts.

In 2012, he lost them. He luckily still won.

But...

That "trouble" for Obama was ultimately not enough to push the election for Romney. But future presidential candidates likely can't ignore independents, who make up one of the fastest-growing groups of the American electorate.


http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/11/13/infographic-obama-lost-the-independent-vote-in-almost-every-swing-state

This was written four years ago and independents are a great percentage now than they were then.

Be careful of assumptions.

casperthegm

(643 posts)
14. What do I think?
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:54 PM
May 2016

I think that is a great way to continue to shrink the party, which is down to 29% of voters now. So yeah, exclude independents and talk down to the younger generations, calling them naive, embrace fracking, Wall Street, regime change, and no fly zones. That's an awesome strategy to build the party. Good luck with all that.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
17. I'm a Bernie supporter but I agree
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:57 PM
May 2016

I think primaries should be closed. I also think we should do away with the superdelegates and make primaries winner take all.

Nanjeanne

(4,950 posts)
18. Yes - let's only let Dems vote for the nominee. And let's not let Independents vote for the Dem
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:58 PM
May 2016

candidate in the GE. That will show them!

Dem2

(8,168 posts)
20. Bernie got 101000 votes from independents, Hillary about 43000
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:59 PM
May 2016

That 58,000 vote margin is the reason he won the state.

Luminous Animal

(27,310 posts)
21. How, um, democratic of you. Yep. Let the nominee be decided by 26% of the electorate.
Tue May 3, 2016, 09:59 PM
May 2016

States run primaries. Citizens are taxed in order to run those primaries. Citizens should have the freedom to vote for whom they wish. Closed primaries reduce support in the electoral process. We want MORE people voting and engaged, not fewer. CA Dems decided to embrace non-affiliated voters because we have so damn many. The earlier you can get a voter to support your party, the better the chances you will have that voter for many years to come.

But, if Democrats want closed primaries, if they want to lock out voting and tax paying citizens, they should pay for the Democratic primaries out of their own pocket.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
22. Some of those non-Democrats would vote for Sanders in the GE were he to be nominated.
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:00 PM
May 2016

The problem is that some of them undoubtedly wouldn't. Some are manipulative, disingenuous people who take advantage of open primaries. Meanwhile, it's safe to say the folks voting for Clinton will vote for her in November. And many of those voting for Sanders will vote for Clinton in November.

All that aside, Indiana is a state Sanders should be expected to win. It fits the profile of a Sanders state. Tonight was just a continuation of the pattern.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
24. Naw, that would be foolish. Independents will determine the GE.
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:02 PM
May 2016

Are you forgetting, also, that 126,000 Democratic voters' registration were CHANGED to "no party" without them knowing, in Brooklyn alone, making them ineligible to vote in the Dem primary when they arrived at the polls? "Surprise, surprise! You don't get to vote, suckers!" Same thing in Arizona. 4 to 5 hour lines there; and if they outlasted this outrage and reached the head of the line, that is when they were informed they couldn't vote. You want to exclude all these fools and suckers and "late-comers," too? And, heck, while you're at it, why not exclude all other newly registered Democrats, anybody who registered within, say, the last four years? What do they know about coronations? How about we just let the Democratic Party elite--the so-called "super-delegates"--vote and no one else? If Democratic voters won't obey the dictates of their betters, what do we need ordinary voters for? Kick 'em out.

Yurovsky

(2,064 posts)
26. The only rules the HRC folks want enforced...
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:02 PM
May 2016

are those that make impossible for any to challenge Hillary.

BOW DOWN. SUBMIT. OBEY.

It's what Goldman Sachs wants...

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
30. No
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:04 PM
May 2016

Each year, more voters are independent instead of Republican or Democrat. It's about one third each now, and trends show independents will be the largest faction soon. A lot of those are reliable Democrats who just don't want to belong to the party.

If all the primaries were open, I believe Sanders would win. If all of them were closed, Clinton would win. Clinton is very disliked by independents, she usually loses those by about 70 to 30. Thanks to closed primaries, like New York and Pennsylvania, we could end up nominating the most disliked Democrat in our lifetimes, with negative ratings of about 55%. That's messed up, because in a general election those independent votes count just as much as a registered Democrat vote.

Frankly, the Democrats are damn lucky the exact same thing is happening on the other side, with Trump winning the nominatiion despite even higher dislike numbers. As a result, we could get a general election between the two most disliked presidential candidates in the last forty years, at least. That tells me the primary process is not working well.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
49. She has won the majority of open primaries, so how do you figure he would win if they all were open?
Tue May 3, 2016, 11:30 PM
May 2016

He only does well in caucuses.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
57. I didn't realize Indiana was a caucus state.
Tue May 3, 2016, 11:52 PM
May 2016

So glad you set me straight there.

Oh, and New Hampshire was a caucus and Iowa a primary. For some silly reason I had them backward.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
59. Here's the breakdown
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:10 AM
May 2016

Open primaries:
Clinton wins: South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri
Sanders wins: Vermont, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana

Clinton wins those 10-4

Semi-open primaries:
Clinton: Ohio, Massachussets, North Carolina
Sanders: New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Rhode Island

Tied 3-3

Closed primaries:
Clinton: Louisiana, Florida, Arizona, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania
Sanders: Democrats abroad

Clinton wins 8-1

Total primary wins:
Clinton 21-8

But on the other hand, Bernie dominated the caucuses, 11-4

I think it's fair to say that she has done much better in primaries and he has done much better in caucuses, wouldn't you say?

The remaining races include 3 caucuses and 10 primaries which doesn't bode too well for him imo.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
69. You said, and I quote
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:11 AM
May 2016

He only does well in caucuses.

I noted the "only", and now you're restating it, more correctly.

The fact that Hillary does well mainly in closed primaries or caucuses, does not bode well for her in the general election.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
75. I meant in terms of a category.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:43 AM
May 2016

If you look at the different types of elections in terms of categories you have:

Caucuses: Sanders won them 11-4
You could break it down in terms of open, closed, etc. but he wins on all of those.

Open primaries: Clinton won those 11-4

Semi-closed primaries: Sanders won those 3-2

Closed primaries: Clinton won 8-1

All primaries: Clinton wins 22-7

So when I said he only does well in caucuses, I meant in general looking at caucuses vs. primaries as categories. Not that he never won a primary. Sorry for the imprecise claim. I was responding to the idea that "If all the primaries were open I believe Sanders would win." She wins open primaries overall as a category, and primaries in general as a category, Sanders wins the majority of caucuses and semi-closed primaries. I don't see how having all open primaries would help him!

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
73. One problem
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:41 AM
May 2016

The problem with your analysis is that the South factor overwhelms it. Clinton won the South by 2 to 1. She would win most Southern states regardless if they're open or closed primaries, because she's so popular there. Eight out of her ten open primary wins were in Southern states. The other two she won by only one percent of the vote.

Sanders typically does better by about 10 points in open vs. closed primaries. Look how he would have lost Indiana by a fair amount if it was closed vs. how he won it by a fair amount since it was open. I haven't done the math, but I'm sure that would gain him more than the 280 or so delegates Clinton is currently winning by. Even in the South, Clinton's margins of victory would have been smaller, netting her fewer delegates.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
77. Ah right, the "south doesn't count" argument.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:49 AM
May 2016

The flip side is that if every state held open primaries, there would be no caucuses and there goes his 11 state caucus advantage.

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
82. Hey CO, we're going to agree here!
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:25 AM
May 2016

She won voters in those state not because they were southern states, but because the large majority of Dems in those states are conservatives/religious conservatives. In the Dem Party, Clinton consistently wins conservative Dems and Sanders wins progressive Dems.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
87. State for state though she wins either way.
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:08 AM
May 2016

She won 2012's red states 11-8, but she also won the blue states 12-10.

ContinentalOp

(5,356 posts)
90. Yeah, slicing and dicing the electorate can be interesting.
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:23 AM
May 2016

You say independents, I say democrats, women, black and latino voters. At the end of the day though you just have to look at the big picture: total votes won and delegates won.

You have to admit that this independent voter argument is a pretty odd one. Sanders supporters are basically saying that even though she's leading in delegates and popular vote, we should nominate the candidate who is losing overall but winning (in some states) among one certain particular demographic.

I don't think you would embrace this argument if the shoe was on the other foot. The fact is that Obama won in 2012 without winning independent voters, but Democrats can't win without black and latino voters or without women. So imagine if Clinton was losing right now but doing better with women and her supporters tried to argue that she should be the candidate because you can't win without women. You definitely wouldn't be having it!

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
101. Disagree
Wed May 4, 2016, 04:14 AM
May 2016

"You have to admit that this independent voter argument is a pretty odd one."

I will not say that's an odd argument. Independent voters make up about a third of all voters. Furthermore, they make up the vast majority of swing voters that determine who wins and loses. That makes them the most important voters to court, period.

As far as caucus vs. primary results, Sanders won those caucuses by overwhelming numbers, often 70 or 80% of the vote. I believe 538 did an analysis that said Sanders got a boost by the fact they were caucuses, but less than 10 points. So he would have won those by landslides anyway. Why? Just a freak of demographics, since most of those turn out to be overwhelmingly white states, and Sanders has done better with white voters than non-white voters overall. Also, the caucus states just happen to mostly be small population states with not many delegates, and the primaries have been in the big population states.

So I don't see how it can be disputed that Sanders would have done much better if all the states were open primaries. One might argue that maybe it wouldn't make up the entire 280 delegate difference, but it certainly would be close. For instance, he lost about 100 delegates in the last two weeks alone in the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, etc primaries. The results would have been very different if those had been open primaries. Look how he won Rhode Island by about five points but lost Connecticut by about five when the two neighboring states have similar electorates. Not surprisingly, Rhode Island was the only state with an open primary that weekend.

And the fact that Clinton did much better in the South is not some lame excuse. That's a simple fact based on the statistics.

Also, I don't know what you mean, that Obama won in 2012 without independent voters. If he lost independents by as much as Clinton is losing them now, he would have lost the general election for sure. I just looked it up, and in the nine key swing states, he got over 50% of independent voters in three of them, and over 40% in the rest, often close to 50%. So it wasn't his strength, but he kept it close. Whereas Clinton regularly loses independent voters by 70 to 30 against Sanders. And in general election match up polls, she still does badly with them. That's why she's about 20% underwater, meaning 20% more of the electorate dislikes her than likes her. That's a VERY big problem. She's damn lucky that the Republican frontrunner is also widely disliked, or she'd lose in a rout due to her problem with independent voters. Nobody has ever won the presidency with dislike numbers that high.

Plus, the number of independent voters has grown significantly since then. People are quickly abandoning both parties. Look at the stats if you don't believe me.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
58. Then why did Bernie join one?
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:07 AM
May 2016

Your comment is nonsense. If party politics were dead Bernie would be running as an independent. But he is smart enough to know that an Independent candidate will not win anytime soon.

I like Bernie, but let us not kid ourselves into thinking that without the Democratic Party Establishment either of our Candidates would win.

If Bernie miraculously manages to win more actual votes and non-super delegates, the party will rally around him because that is what the party does. Including pretty much all Hillary supporters here. But since a decent percentage of his voters are not party member, their support is not assured.

And that is why Hillary supporters can get so defensive. We all know that a good many of Bernie's supporters will vote for Trump rather than Clinton, even some on this site. And we do not want those types having a say in our primaries.

The Midway Rebel

(2,191 posts)
74. "Those types" are citizens too.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:42 AM
May 2016

"We all know that a good many of Bernie's supporters will vote for Trump rather than Clinton, even some on this site. And we do not want those types having a say in our primaries."

A good many? "We" don't know that.

Perhaps if the the party represented the people it would be important, but it has strangled itself with leadership like the Clintons and Debbie Wasserman Schutlz. Clinton supporters keep insisting that Bernie isn't is a Democrat, so maybe they are right. Party politics is dead, Bernie just help put the fork in it.

pmorlan1

(2,096 posts)
33. Maybe
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:06 PM
May 2016

you can just screen voters before they vote and if they support your candidate then you will allow them to vote and if not they don't get a vote. I never thought I'd see the day that my Party would be afraid of voters. We always wanted more voters not less but the Hillary crowd only wants certain voters in. They are in favor of a gated community not building a Party.

Beacool

(30,247 posts)
34. On that point I do agree.
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:09 PM
May 2016

I think caucuses shouldn't exist and primaries should be closed. I've been saying it for years. Want to vote in a party's primary? Then join that party or wait until the GE.


slipslidingaway

(21,210 posts)
41. The Democratic party does not need or want Independents! The party will summon them when ...
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:27 PM
May 2016

needed and expect the majority of independents to run to their side when called.



passiveporcupine

(8,175 posts)
42. I love how you guys need a rigged game to win
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:29 PM
May 2016

and that's OK with you, because you are authoritarians. You like telling other people what they can and cannot do.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
43. It's completely impossible to hold closed primaries in states that
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:29 PM
May 2016

don't register voters by party. That's close to 20 states. No. You can't force states to register voters by party.

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
63. Unfortunately, the Repub party in Idaho actually did force the state to register voters by party
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:24 AM
May 2016

in 2011. They filed suit and won:

IDAHO REPUBLICAN PARTY v. YSURSA, BEN In his Official Capacity as Secretary of State of the State of Idaho

INTRODUCTION
This case presents the question whether the State of Idaho’s use of an open primary system to determine nominees for the general election violates the Idaho Republican Party’s First Amendment rights. Because the open primary permits substantial numbers of independent voters, as well as voters associated with other political parties, to “cross over” and participate in the Republican Party’s selection of its nominees, the Court concludes that, by mandating such a nomination process, the State violates the Party’s constitutionally guaranteed right to freedom of association.

http://www.sos.idaho.gov/ELECT/ClosedPrimaryOrder.pdf


The defendant, a Republican, didn't put up much of a fight for the people of the State of Idaho.

That is why instead of 22 states that don't register voters by party, there are now only 21:

Alabama -- open primary
Arkansas -- open primary
Georgia -- open primary
Hawaii -- open caucus
Illinois -- semi-open primary
Indiana -- open primary
Michigan -- open primary
Minnesota -- open caucus
Mississippi -- open primary
Missouri -- open primary
Montana -- open primary
North Dakota -- open caucus
Ohio -- semi-open primary
South Carolina --open primary
Tennessee -- open primary
Texas -- closed caucus
Utah -- closed primary
Vermont -- open primary
Virginia -- open primary
Washington -- open caucus
Wisconsin -- open primary

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
53. Only if the GE is also closed to anyone not reg'd Dem (or living in Brooklyn)
Tue May 3, 2016, 11:41 PM
May 2016

We have to pick the most electable candidate for the GE.



Jbradshaw120

(80 posts)
54. Then we shouldn't have
Tue May 3, 2016, 11:44 PM
May 2016

Publicly funded primaries. If the state pays for them then that shold be totally open. It is wrong to tax independents to fund an election they can not participate in. Period.

 

B Calm

(28,762 posts)
62. All primaries should be open. The right to vote for a candidate that inspires
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:17 AM
May 2016

the voter should never be limited to if you are registered to a political party. You want the party to grow, not turn them away!

FrodosPet

(5,169 posts)
64. I think closed primaries should be completely funded by the party that wants to exclude people
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:30 AM
May 2016

If an election is publically funded, it should be open to everyone. No one should have to pay for a partisan activity that they cannot participate in.

LostOne4Ever

(9,288 posts)
72. Here is what I think
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:37 AM
May 2016

[font style="font-family:'Georgia','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=4 color=#009999]Make the primary take place on a single day, Get rid of Super-delegates, get rid of Caucuses, and use a party funded hybrid/semi-open/semi-closed primary system* to decide the nominee for the party.

Heck, if it is possible we should get rid of delegates altogether and just based it on vote count alone.



*[/font]Specifically if you want to vote in said party's primary you have to register with that party (then and there), and are are bound to vote only for that party's choice of nominees in the primary.

 

Silver_Witch

(1,820 posts)
78. I think Exit Polls are Bullshit
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:52 AM
May 2016

I think people say things that they think they should say to pollsters. The best thing that could happen is for all polls to go away!

Voting is personal and private and should be that way!

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
83. I guess you resent his win in Indiana?
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:30 AM
May 2016

I don't - it shows he can pull in lots of independents. And that is good news for the GE. Clinton is distrusted and loathed by over 70 % of the independents. If a significant amount of Independents don't vote D in November, even if just by staying home, 2014 would pale in comparison to the downticket losses, with Clinton on top.

Sanders, on the other hand: if he manages to GOTV all the new voters and independents (and even some peripheral Republicans) he has brought in, we'd be looking at a landslide of historic proportions: House and Senate back in our control, and swingstate Louisiana.

I'm feeling the Bern. For the good of the Democratic Party, for the good of the USA, and for the good of the world.

Chezboo

(230 posts)
102. If all democratic primaries should be closed, then all democrats should pay for them
Wed May 4, 2016, 04:33 AM
May 2016

- not the taxpayers. You up for that?

MFM008

(19,805 posts)
103. Register properly
Wed May 4, 2016, 05:10 AM
May 2016

If people are unable to register properly to vote perhaps they shouldn't be trusted to draw a line to an arrow tip.
 

pdsimdars

(6,007 posts)
104. Yea, that's such a "smart" way to choose a candidate for the GE.
Wed May 4, 2016, 05:20 AM
May 2016

You get someone who will get 55% of the 30% of voters who are Democrats. Sure way to not have a CLUE about winning the GE.
Bernie got 45% of Democrats but he also gets around 70% of independents who make up 42% of the voters. Hillary does not do that.
So, you get the one that Democrats like slightly better who will LOSE the GE. Woo-hoo, great thinking. . . or not!

Response to qdouble (Original post)

 

jmousso75

(71 posts)
106. Bernie lost among democrats 54-46% according to exit poll. All primaries should be closed primaries
Wed May 4, 2016, 06:10 AM
May 2016

That is not a democracy. That is voter suppression.

Remember, Hillary needs us to win. She will not win without the independent vote because there will be some democrats who will not vote for her.

Eric J in MN

(35,619 posts)
109. Nancy Pelosi's daughter Christine Pelosi
Wed May 4, 2016, 06:31 AM
May 2016

...is an organizer who believes in open primaries as a way to get people involved.

 

Duckhunter935

(16,974 posts)
110. The the party needs to pick up 100% of the cost
Wed May 4, 2016, 06:38 AM
May 2016

Taxation witbout representation. Start chipping in and quut making us pay for your party.

MrMickeysMom

(20,453 posts)
111. Spoken by another person who won't look too far back to properly judge history...
Wed May 4, 2016, 06:43 AM
May 2016

Verified, no doubt through a CNN reference.

If you want the Democratic party to re-vitalize, then continue to invite a whole bunch of Democrats who either left it (think of THOSE reasons) or are enthused by it's re-vitalization. Now.... WHO'S doing THAT?

Without the super delegates, she's only ahead by 302 delegates.

All primaries should be democratic and therefore open... PERIOD.

 

Armstead

(47,803 posts)
113. What the hell is an "outsider"? Someone who didn't go through the secret Democratic rituals?
Wed May 4, 2016, 06:50 AM
May 2016

Someone who didn't go through Animal House pledging and initiations like a college fraternity?



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