Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Preliminary Clinton-Trump breakdown by State

[brooklynite]

[hrmjustin]

1. Please Lord Jesus let it be so.

[RandySF]

2. AZ will be in play.

[stevenleser]

3. I think Sabato's projection is Trump's high water mark.

Arizona, Colorado and Nevada have too many Latinos to be where Sabato put them. Nevada and Colorado should be likely D and Arizona would be at best a Toss up and possibly a Leans D.

I think Arkansas would be at least marginally competitive given the Clinton's deep ties to the state. I think Virginia would be a Likely D.

[TM99]

4. No chance on Arizona.

It is solidly red and will stay that way.

Not all Latino's are progressives any more so than all AA's in the South are 'liberals'.

[stevenleser]

11. There are already polls showing Clinton leading, so thats not correct. nt

[TM99]

12. Yes, and some polls are

right and some are wrong. And your buddy 538 says that GE polls this far out are unreliable.

I have lived here for almost 30 years. I know my state better than you oh Fox pundit!

[Ash_F]

6. Not all Latinos can vote

[Ash_F]

5. I have said this before but I think those midwest states are in danger

After Clinton's tour of Appalachia I now think some of that is in danger too.

[stevenleser]

7. In danger from someone polling 9% of the Latino vote and 30% of the womens vote? No way. nt

[Ash_F]

8. Not all Latinos can vote and R's don't typically do great with women either.

Those states have cost Democrats before.

Trump will go full anti-free trade and anti-outsourcing which will be strong positions in those specific states.

[stevenleser]

9. The polls deal with registered and likely Latino voters. It's over before it began.

This will not be an election about free trade, social security or any traditional issues.

It's going to be about a guy who so turned off a couple of key demographic groups that nothing else either candidate does or has ever done or said is going to matter.

[Ash_F]

10. I am looking at the Ohio vote totals and it is 2 millions R's to 1.2 million D's

It looks like the other rust belt states tell a similar tale.

[TheBlackAdder]

13. OK, that's in Alternate Republican World. When the GOP nominee is picked, they will rally together.

.


It would be nice to think that they are not as fucked up as we think they are.

I have yet to see any true level of sanity emerge from the GOP or Libertarians.


To go on the premise that their party is doomed, is just playing with fire and introducing complacency.


.