Could Hillary actually beat Trump?
This may be a low turn out election, one in which those outside of Party Diehards look and see it as a "lesser of two evils," election. In a lesser of two evils election, the wind is at the back of those with the most loyal and fanatical base. Hillary will likely limp her way to a nomination, but that is a weak showing for someone with 100% institutional backing, plausibly rigging in her favor, and constant favorable coverage, and every possible advantage one could imagine and she still is doing poorly and may go into a contested convention.
Trump will have an outright win, A base that loves him, for whatever reason, and with independents disliking Hillary as well as Trump it is unlikely many will vote.
My prediction is that this will be a low turnout election with most people considering this a lesser of two evils election. Bernie brought a lot of independents to his cause, but with the way he has been treated by Hillary and Hillary supporters most will likely just not vote. Some might go spite and vote Trump, but I scoff at the notion. Some Republicans might switch, but that is a tad like Trump hoping Bernie supporters will switch out of hate for Hillary. Republicans disasitisfied with Trump will more likely not vote then vote Hillary.
There will be simply a GOTV, and for all of Trump being hated he has managed to crush it in the GOP primary and gain phenomenal votes for such a reviled character. The GE will be decided by who can actually rally voters. Do people hate Trump enough to ignore their dislike of Hillary? George W. Bush was hated as well, reviled, but Kerry did not become president. In elections with unlikable candidates the wind is always at the back of the guy whose base is utterly devoted and fanatical. Considering Hillary's weak showing this primary, can she actually muster activists? The GE won't be her favor, it won't be just registered Democrats voting with occasional Independents giving input in some states.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Yet when democrats get to vote in our own primaries, she wins! 
Dr. Larry J. Sabato is the founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He is also the University Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and has had visiting appointments at Oxford University and Cambridge University in Great Britain. A Rhodes Scholar, he received his doctorate from Oxford, and he is the author or editor of two dozen books on American politics.
Prof. Sabato directs the Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball website, a leader in accurately predicting elections since its inception. In 2004, the Crystal Ball notched a 99 percent accuracy rate in predicting all races for House, Senate, Governor and each state’s Electoral College outcome. In 2006, the Pew Research Center and the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Project for Excellence in Journalism recognized the Crystal Ball as the leader in the field of political predictors, noting that the site “came closer than any other of the top ten potential predictors this cycle.”
In 2008, the Crystal Ball came within one electoral vote of the exact tally in the Electoral College, while also correctly picking the result of every single gubernatorial and Senate race across the country. In 2010, the Crystal Ball was the first to forecast a solid Republican takeover of the House. While others were predicting a Romney victory in 2012, the Crystal Ball forecast a substantial Obama margin in the Electoral College, and ultimately missed just two states. The Crystal Ball had a combined 97% accuracy rate in forecasting the Electoral College, Senate, House and gubernatorial contests.
Earlier this year, the Crystal Ball won a “Beast Best” award from The Daily Beast as one of the top political sites on the web.
In 2013 Prof. Sabato won an Emmy award for the television documentary Out of Order, which he produced to highlight the dysfunctional U.S. Senate. In 2014, Prof. Sabato won a second Emmy award for the PBS documentary The Kennedy Half-Century, which covers the life, assassination, and lasting legacy of President John F. Kennedy.
In October 2013, Prof. Sabato and the Center for Politics unveiled the Kennedy Half Century project. The project consisted of a New York Times bestselling book, The Kennedy Half-Century PBS documentary, a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) available on Coursera and iTunes U, an app with the complete recordings and transcripts from Dealey Plaza on 11/22/63, and a website (www.thekennedyhalfcentury.com).
Prof. Sabato is also very active on social media. His Twitter feed (@LarrySabato) was named by Time Magazine as one of the 140 best Twitter feeds of 2014.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/staff_sabato.html
And if that doesn't convince you:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
And if that and that doesn't convince you:
I should note that the polls have been telling us this information for some time. In the first half of March, Clinton led Trump by a median of 9 percentage points. Using an SD of 4.5 percentage points, her win probability would come out as 93%. So today’s estimate has been knowable for several months.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/#more-15484
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Donald Trump is going to lose among Hispanics by fifty points, lose among Asians by fifty points, and lose among African Americans by eighty points. Can he really get close to seventy percent of the white vote which is what he will needs?
