2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRepublicans consider Clinton over Trump
By Eli Stokols
May 4, 2016
If this is who my party is, I dont really identify with it anymore, one Republican says.
No longer do establishment Republicans harbor any fantasies of blocking Donald Trump from their presidential nomination. But a new kind of magical thinking is taking hold: that a splintered conservative coalition will somehow unite behind the GOPs newly-minted presumptive nominee.
Ted Cruzs sudden suspension of his campaign following his double-digit loss to Trump in Indiana Tuesday night is forcing anti-Trump Republicans to finally confront the Hobsons Choice of a general election matchup between Hillary Clinton and a demagogic conspiracy theorist untethered to conservative principals.
While many conservative stalwarts are conflicted and stuck in a state of paralysis, some are considering the ultimate betrayal.
Hours before Indiana polls closed Tuesday evening when it was becoming clear that Trump was headed for a decisive win, some prominent Republicans were moving away from him. Mark Salter, John McCains former campaign speechwriter, signaled his support for Clinton via Twitter. Conservative pundit Ben Howe did the same.
It may just be the beginning.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/republicans-clinton-trump-indiana-222778?lo=ap_a1
It may not be smooth cruising for Trump.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Strange days are coming forth.
ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)...right that republicans are willing to vote for Hillary over their own nominee.
Wow.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Peeps can't have it both ways.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)...they are about 40% of voters...but you knew that already.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Secondly, most "independents" are, in fact, party loyalists.
Thirdly, "independents" aren't a united bloc and people need to stop implying that they are. Members of the Tea Party and right wing militia groups self-identify as "independent."
Lastly, Obama lost the "independent" vote in 2012 and still won re-election in an electoral college landslide.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)The posts you are talking about are a few about people voting for Bernie over Hillary or Trump, but you are Cherry picking. Most of them state the opposite, I know because I have posted many saying Huckabee, Koch Brothers, etc have all endorsed Hillary, because well she is one of them. Republican's are the smallest party at this moment, even if you add in the "loyalist Independent republicans.
Secondly and thirdly (since they are about the same thing, you could have just grouped them), they are more loyal to their beliefs than their party. They go Dem because while they may hate the DNC, they find it closest...these are less party loyalist than idealist...I wonder who on the Dem ticket is based more on ideals and less on mediocrity? (also I love your mention of Tea Party and Militias, way to try and paint the group as one side even-though all studies show you are lying...green party*cough*)
Lastlier, no you are wrong...he lost only in most of the swing states and the election with a lower turn out with a massive shift in "Independants".
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/11/13/infographic-obama-lost-the-independent-vote-in-almost-every-swing-statehttp://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/11/13/infographic-obama-lost-the-independent-vote-in-almost-every-swing-state
and NPR has this study on them saying more of them are Democrats...
Myth Of The 'Myth'?
In 2008, for example, exit polls showed that about 90 percent of those who said they leaned Democratic ended up voting for Barack Obama, while something like 80 percent of the Republican-leaning independents went for Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
http://www.npr.org/2012/03/26/149402358/just-how-independent-are-independent-voters
It is also back up by the 2014 data...
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/08/most-political-independents-actually-arent/
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)The fact that he lost the independent vote in most swing states makes my argument even stronger. If he lost the overall independent vote but won it in swing states, you could still argue that "independents" were key to his victory. But that wasn't the case.
You think the likes of Huckabee, including his supporters, are going to be voting for Clinton? Seriously? That's like thinking those "independent" Tea Party folks would vote for Sanders (or Clinton). Ain't gonna happen.
Clinton will rely upon more or less the same constituency that elected Obama, and she will likely win in an electoral college landslide.
Reasonable and semi-reasonable Republicans (an increasingly small group) are talking about voting for Clinton or not voting at all or voting 3rd Party because Trump is widely believed to be a complete disaster. Not because they think Clinton is "one of them."
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)Why do you think they were at Trump's wedding. They are the Third-way. But about the independents...Of the ones that voted they were out numbered by the youth and high Democrat turn out. Also independents spiked down a little that election so that also helped. So Bernie that does well with Independents, younger voters, and get out the vote...no biggy. But Mitt Romney drew 1.3 million fewer votes than the ticket of John McCain....so if republicans had turned out more ...it may have been one term for Obama.
Young People Would Turn Out Less Than in 2008
Last month, Harvard Universitys Institute of Politics released a poll of young people that reported enthusiasm for Obama was down considerably from four years earlier. They found that the proportion of 18-24 year olds who were registered to vote dropped from 79 percent in 2008 to 66 percent in 2012 and the proportion who said they were definitely voting dropped from 63 percent to 48 percent. From these numbers they concluded that turnout for young people would be lower than 2008 by a significant margin.
While it is still too early to know the turnout rate among young people, we do know what proportion of voters they comprised at the polls, and these numbers give every indication that young people participated as much as they did in the last election. In 2012, 11 percent of voters were 18-24 years old and 8 percent were 25-29 years, compared to 10 percent and 8 percent respectively four years earlier. In fact, young people comprised the largest share of the electorate since the 1992 presidential election between Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Ross Perot.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-best/dispelling-myths-about-th_b_2105166.html
http://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/
ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)She appeals to her base.
Beacool
(30,254 posts)Women, AA, Hispanics, Asians, etc.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)He hands down crushes her with my fellow Asian voters here in the "white" NW.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/7/1457999/-Breaking-News-Bernie-Sanders-Most-Popular-Candidate-Among-Asian-Americans
But hey love your dedication to waving around that minority card, perhaps she can actually help a few, because she always "tries" to have our backs. She also does great with people that do not want to vote for a Jewish guy.
http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/emcee-african-americans-hillary-event-used-anti-gay-anti-semitic-slurs
Also a large group of hardcore liberals are independents, and they account for most of the independents which account for 42% of all voters...so Bernie has that base....but Hillary does good with her Republican base, you know tha Walmart one from Arkansas.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
joshcryer
(62,287 posts)The poll contained some numbers that should terrify Republicans. 40% of Republicans polled said that they would not support the partys nominee if Donald Trump wins. 25% of the anti-Trump Republican vote would consider voting for a third party candidate. 19% of the never Trump Republicans would vote for Hillary Clinton, and 18% would stay home and not vote at all. By gender, 10% of men, and 9% of Republican women would vote for Clinton over Trump. 18% of very likely Republican general election voters would support Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/04/25/bombshell-poll-20-republicans-vote-hillary-clinton-trump-wins.html
Beacool
(30,254 posts)the sane people within his party.
A Trump presidency is downright scary.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)joshcryer
(62,287 posts)I can't for the life of me find it but it polled conservative, Republican, women, and they had a lot of admiration for her.
With Trump running I think he will push a whole lot more in her camp, just on principle. And while yeah it's a small reason to be voting for someone, it's still a legitimate reason as any.
Beacool
(30,254 posts)will repudiate him. They may not say much publicly, but they may speak with their vote. At least I hope that all Republicans have not lost their collective minds.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)in the primaries, so all bets are off. LOL.
Urchin
(248 posts)their jobs to free trade and to the big banks crashing the economy, may vote for Trump if they can't vote for Sanders.
People who have had their careers, businesses, and towns destroyed by globalism and big finance, are hurting so bad they might be willing to vote for anyone who is against free trade, no matter what else the candidate maybe be for or against or even if he's just plain dumb as rocks