Sanders' Path to Victory After Narrow Indiana Win

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Nate Silver ?@NateSilver538 15h15 hours ago
If Sanders wins Indiana tonight, here's what he needs the rest of the way.. http://53eig.ht/1Z9Xjso

[seabeyond]

1. Lol, O.k. Nt

[COLGATE4]

3. And unicorns will descend and place the mantle on Bernie's brow

as all the Superdelegates immediately come to their senses and declare Bernie the nominee by aclamation.

[seabeyond]

7. Or he will just disrupt our convention and demand his coronation. Nt

[COLGATE4]

8. Unfortunately, I think this is a given. nt

[FSogol]

2. Which are closed primaries?

[Betty Karlson]

4. Even if he falls short here and there, he could still enter the convention with NEARLY enough

delegates and certainly more pledged ones than Clinton. His path isn't so narrow anymore as it was before Indiana.

[KittyWampus]

5. LOL! It's just funny now.

[Betty Karlson]

6. Face it, Kitty: a contested convention is almost certain now -

barring a miracle either way, neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to their name at the start of the convention.

And there are plenty of chances for Sanders to be the one with more pledged delegates to his name at the start of the convention.

[Yurovsky]

11. The HRC camp doesn't want anything other than a coronation...

Their candidate and her corporatist economic plan will wilt under the spotlights on national TV of a contested convention. Bernie is the only real hope we have of CRUSHING Trump. Think of what a Bernie/Elizabeth Warren ticket would do... It could carry 40+'states and flip the entire congress, IMHO (Senate for sure, House quite possibly, Obama pulled it off).

Anyone who has watched her career knows that HRC does worse the more she is in front of cameras and microphones. From telling racist jokes to insulting progressives, she doesn't have the political skills of Bill, and she has hundreds of millions of dollars in corporate blood-money that she can't explain away - and certainly won't give back, because she's greedy.

FEEL THE BERN!!!!!!!!!!!

[mythology]

9. In what alternate universe is that going to happen?

Sanders has to start winning at 65% or higher to do what you think he can. Before Indiana he needed 64%. His path is mathematically harder after his win in Indiana because he didn't win by enough to make up for the number of pledged delegates now out of play.

[Garrett78]

12. The graph in the OP is only concerned with pledged delegates.

So, no, falling short here and there would not result in Sanders earning more pledged delegates.

Clinton will end up winning by a larger margin than Obama won by in 2008.

[NurseJackie]

10. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

From the looks of things, it's mostly bad and ugly when it comes to Bernie's actual chances.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/sanders-campaign-indiana-offers-good-news-and-bad

If Sanders won each of the remaining primaries and caucuses by 30 points each – an improbable task, to be sure – he’d still come up short. That’s how significant his current deficit it. None of this, by the way, factors superdelegates into the equation. I’m referring only to pledged delegates, earned exclusively through nominating contests decided by rank-and-file voters.

Unfortunately for his ardent fans, this equation includes Indiana, where he prevailed last night with a six-point victory, but where he needed a win that was vastly larger if he intends to catch up to the rival he trails. It may seem counter-intuitive, but a modest win in Indiana actually leaves Sanders worse off than he was 24 hours ago – it was not only too narrow a victory, it also shrinks the number of remaining opportunities he’ll have to close the gap.