Quick reality check. Bernie is down 286 pledged delegates with 933 to go.

[YouDig]

That means he needs to win the delegate count by over a 30% margin going forward. And there are no more caucus states left, the only caucuses left are Guam and the Virgin Islands, with 7 delegates at stake in each.

Bernie has won only two primaries so far with a 30% margin. Vermont and Democrats Abroad. Together those netted him 21 delegates.

On top of that, 5 of the remaining primaries, for a total of 296 delegates, are closed. Bernie has won one closed primary so far: Democrats Abroad, where he got 9 out of the 13 delegates.


So he has no hope of winning more pledged delegates. His only hope is using superdelegates to overturn the will of the voters. But there are only 715 superdelegates, and 498 have already endorsed Hillary. In order to even get half the superdelegates, he would have to convince 141, or 28%, of those pro-Hillary superdelegates to change their vote in order to subvert the democratic process and nominate a self-described socialist who joined the party only to run for president.

That assumes that all uncommitted superdelegates also decide to go against the will of the voters. But even that wouldn't get him there, it would only get him to a tie in superdelegates, and the pledged delegates would put Hillary over. To actually subvert democracy he would need to convince about half of the superdelegates that have already committed to Hillary to go along with him.


In other words, goodbye Bernie Sanders.

[casperthegm]

1. Seems to be a lot of these threads today

Are you sure that it's Bernie supporters that you are trying to convince? Or yourselves? Seems like some people might be getting a little nervous...

[YouDig]

3. There's been a lot of #berniemath today, so this is a good time to run the actual numbers.

[Happenstance24]

9. There are plenty of delegate calculators out there.

Do the math yourself and show us how Bernie can win. Don't worry, we'll wait.

[Buzz Clik]

2. Slam dunk! Feel the Bern!

[BootinUp]

5. oh dear lord that dumb and dumber meme slayed me. nt

[Uncle Joe]

4. No one has a legitimate argument about "subverting democracy" when they argue against

the states that haven't voted yet to be eliminated or discounted from the democratic process and not be allowed to vote.

Thanks for the thread, YouDig.

[LonePirate]

6. Is anyone telling those states not to vote?

Pointing out the reality of the situation =/= telling people not to vote

[Uncle Joe]

8. They are telling Bernie to drop out of the race, that he has no chance before the people have spoken

And this has been going on for months.

Pointing out "reality" before reality is set isn't realistic, it's just fatalism.

[LonePirate]

10. What reality governs the fact that he needs to win 2/3 of all remaining pledged delegates?

Under no circumstances should the supers thwart the will of the people by choosing a different candidate than the majority pledged delegate winner. That scenario is absolutely disastrous for us all. Extreme Bernie partisans need to recognize how damaging that outcome would be - not to mentiion how his revolution of the people would then take a back seat to a coup by some elites.

The only option for Bernie is to win a majority of pledged delegates. To do that, he has to win 2 out of every 3 remaining delegates. Is this possible? Theoretically, yes, it is possible. How likely is it that happen given how most of the remaining contests are primaries and not caucuses? It's not very likely. Bernie is more likely to be struck by lightning than to accomplish that.

In my opinion, Bernie should stay in the race for as long as he wants. However, he needs to be honest as to why he's remaining in the race because his chances of winning it are extremely slim. Then there is the whole Trump factor to consider. Does he sit idly by while Hillary and Bernie continue to face off? Or does he go full barrel against Hillary? He will ignore Sanders because the only people who think Sanders can win the nomination are people who do not understand the longshot chances he faces. Is it best for America if Bernie stays in or is it best for America if he bows out so that the party can focus exclusively on Trump?

[Uncle Joe]

11. No one knows what the will of the people is until they have spoken, until then it's all just

presumption.

No one knows what will transpire in regards to events, altering dynamics nor the will of the people in the remaining states until it has occurred.

Without a doubt it is best for Bernie to stay in the race whether one believes he can win outright or to give critically needed shape and energy to a Democratic Party which has suffered entropy for the past 27 years.

Bernie hasn't and doesn't hesitate in criticizing Trump, if he were to drop out of the race now, this would be to Trump's advantage.

[LonePirate]

12. 40 states have voiced their will. The trajectory is clear to all but those unwilling to accept it.

Relying on uncertain, future events (which I assume is your hope of an indictment) is little more than an act of desperation. As for the voters, could more than 66% of them in EVERY remaining contest side with Bernie? Yes, there is a chance but it is a extremely remote one, especially when there is no evidence that Hillary will drop below 40% in CA, DC, KY, NJ and PR. She can sleepwalk her way to 40% in those five contests and it's still lights out for Bernie. A religious type of miracle will be needed for Bernie to win. It's certainly not the coin toss chances some people seem to think he has.

[Uncle Joe]

13. Let me know when the U.S. only consists of 40 states.

Apparently there was no evidence that Hillary would lose Indiana.

It isn't over until it's over.

[LonePirate]

14. Did she "lose" IN? She needs a smaller percentage of delegates today than she needed Monday.

If she performs in the remaining contests like she did in Indiana, she still wins the pledged delegate race by roughly 200.

It's no different than when the presidential election is called before polls close in the western states.

[Uncle Joe]

15. Yes Bernie won Indiana and the states where he is most apt to do even better

have yet to come.

[LonePirate]

16. Yes, he won IN but he still lost ground as he did not meet the necessary delegate target.

He failed to reach 65% yesterday and he needs to hit that target in every single race. We do not have winner take all contests. Yes, he may reach that number in MT, ND, OR, SD and WV; but he needs a miracle to accomplish that in CA, DC, KY, NJ and PR. Simply winning a state like he did with Indiana still gives the nomination to Hillary. I seem to be the only Bernie voter who understands that reality.

[Uncle Joe]

17. No Bernie doesn't need to hit that target in every single race, that's just the average.

Bernie stands a good chance of winning some states by 70% or more.

[LonePirate]

18. Winning MT with 70% and CA with 60% is still a Bernie loss.

This is not the Senate where each state has the same number of votes.

[Happenstance24]

7. Hit up demrace.com and check these numbers

Clinton can lose EVERY RACE from here on out 35% to Bernie's 65% and still clench the nom. Does anyone rational think she'll lose CA, Puerto Rico, NJ, or NM by that amount? It's over. I don't get how Berners can sit around and rightfully point out GOP'ers denying science about climate change then deny math now. It's absolutely hilarious.