2016 Postmortem

Mojo2

(332 posts) Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:04 AM Oct 2012

Latest Swing State Polls

Someone may have posted this earlier, sorry if so:

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Another state that has never been considered a swing state but appears close:

Oregon: Obama 47%, Romney 41% (Elway)

12 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Latest Swing State Polls (Original Post) Mojo2 Oct 2012 OP

The (+4) in OHIO today is the best news TroyD Oct 2012 #1

While Its Good News.. JiminyJominy Oct 2012 #2

Yes, but in this case their swing state polls this year have been in the same ballpark TroyD Oct 2012 #3

Don't agree with the Oregon poll hogwyld Oct 2012 #4

that 41% that Romney has in Oregon is about what McCain got WI_DEM Oct 2012 #5

Well, that would be about a 6 to 8-point win. BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #11

Puh-lease give it a rest with these WestCoastLib Oct 2012 #6

What about Arizona? treestar Oct 2012 #7

Not yet. BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #9

Looks good. BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #8

Do you have the links? grantcart Oct 2012 #10

Polls are looking good inductivetreasoning Oct 2012 #12

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

1. The (+4) in OHIO today is the best news

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:25 AM

Oct 2012

I doubt it will get as much attention as yesterday's Rasmussen poll putting Romney (+2), though.

JiminyJominy

(340 posts)

2. While Its Good News..

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:29 AM

Oct 2012

Zogby really was way off last time around so I take anything of theirs with a grain of salt.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

3. Yes, but in this case their swing state polls this year have been in the same ballpark

Reply to JiminyJominy (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:31 AM

Oct 2012

As many other pollsters.

For example, the Zogby OHIO poll is showing the same thing as CNN, TIME & PPP.

It's Rasmussen that has Romney up in OHIO.

hogwyld

(3,436 posts)

4. Don't agree with the Oregon poll

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 11:36 AM

Oct 2012

Oregon is no more of a swing state than is Texas. I bet Obama gets 53 - 55 percent of the vote here.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

5. that 41% that Romney has in Oregon is about what McCain got

Reply to hogwyld (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 11:38 AM

Oct 2012

My guess is that a lot of those voters will swing towards Obama by election day. Will he win by 16-points like he did in 2008, probably not but I think he'll get over a 10-point spread.

BlueDemKev

(3,003 posts)

11. Well, that would be about a 6 to 8-point win.

Reply to hogwyld (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 12:03 PM

Oct 2012

Which is consistent with the Elway Poll.

WestCoastLib

(442 posts)

6. Puh-lease give it a rest with these

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 11:40 AM

Oct 2012

I live in Oregon. Obama could air videos of himself murdering kittens 24 hours a day from now to election and he'd still win comfortably.

treestar

(82,383 posts)

7. What about Arizona?

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 11:41 AM

Oct 2012

that's a swing state too now, no?

BlueDemKev

(3,003 posts)

9. Not yet.

Reply to treestar (Reply #7)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 11:54 AM

Oct 2012

Wait about ten more years.

BlueDemKev

(3,003 posts)

8. Looks good.

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 11:53 AM

Oct 2012

Ohio and Oregon are "must-wins", while Florida and Virginia would be "bonuses" if we pick them up.

Do you know what the margin of error was in the Newsmax/Zogby poll in Ohio?

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

10. Do you have the links?

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 12:00 PM

Oct 2012

FYI Zogby polling was bought out by a Brazilian company and anything that is associated with Newsmax is highly suspicious.

Welcome to DU.

inductivetreasoning

(7 posts)

12. Polls are looking good

Reply to Mojo2 (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 12:06 PM

Oct 2012

Over at the 538 blog it looks like Romney has a lot of ground to make up.

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