New Jersey and California.

[MineralMan]

Despite the wishful claims of some Sanders supporters, Sanders will not win in those two states by any large margin, if he can win them at all. And, without winning by a large margin, the two states have more than enough pledged delegates to put Clinton over the top in pledged delegates.

And then, there are Puerto Rico and DC. Again, Sanders cannot win big, if at all, in either of those.

Right now, NJ polls with Hillary having a large lead. CA, too polls with Hillary as the winner. Now, even if Sanders erases that lead and ties those states, or wins with a small margin, proportional allocation will push Clinton over the top.

I can't, for the life of me, see Bernie getting a majority of pledged delegates, given those four races. I just can't.

Plus, Hillary Clinton will get pledged delegates to add to her total from every other state, too, even ones she loses. The margins that are possible for Sanders simply aren't large enough, by far.

[TheBlackAdder]

1. NJ is not going to treat SBS well.

.


I will be surprised if he beats 40-45%.


.

[MineralMan]

2. I'm sure that's true.

[IamMab]

15. I mailed my ballot for Clinton in yesterday.

Yeah, NJ has voting by mail. All you have to do is request the ballot when you register. You can request a permanent general election mail-in ballot every year it's available, or annually request a mail-in ballot for the primary and general election.

I've been voting from my living room for over a decade now, every election.

[MineralMan]

22. Yay!

[riversedge]

39. Thanks for the vote. Wish all states had such an easy way to vote.

[politicaljunkie41910]

3. I agree. Both states are highly taxed already and don't want to see their taxes increased even more

to pay for Bernie's revolution.

[MineralMan]

5. I'm not sure that's why, actually.

It's more the demographics.

[politicaljunkie41910]

10. That's my reason. I pay some of the highest taxes in a state with one of the highest cost of living

My husband and I worked hard, saved and sent our children to college and paid for our own health care insurance. We did it by making sacrifices in other areas, i.e. new cars, vacations, that many people both Dems and GOP chose not to and now want other people to pay for when Bernie knows he can never get this passed through Congress.

[frylock]

40. Wow.

[QC]

41. Mindboggling, isn't it? n/t

[frylock]

42. It's the kinda thing I hear from conservatives all the time.

People that are oblivious to the fact that others have also made sacrifices that were of great benefit to folks like our friend here who is complaining about being Taxed Enough Already.

[QC]

43. Yeah, I flashed back to Reagan's tale of the Welfare Queen

for just a moment there, with her mink coat and her Cadillac and her food stamps.

Really took me back.

[NurseJackie]

4. They're just entertaining themselves by having-a-go with us ...

... they don't honestly believe that Bernie has a chance. It's just a continuation of the leg-pulling and yuck-yuck taunting ... shits-and-grins ... one last hurrah ... one last dance.



To hold me, to scold me, 'cause when I'm bad I'm so so bad...

[MineralMan]

6. I'm not sure that's true.

I think there are some people who honestly believe that some sort of miracle is going to occur. It's not going to happen, though.

Political reality is what it is.

[NurseJackie]

11. They're in for a very hard landing, if that's the case.

[CorkySt.Clair]

30. All the better

[revmclaren]

29. Yup....

and then they will skip out without paying the check on July 29th after trashing the place.

[highprincipleswork]

7. Hard as I work for Bernie, and I do and will, I acknowledge Hillary will probably, by hook or by

crook, manage to become the Democratic nominee. It may not be pretty, it may be downright nasty, but many parties seem determined for this to be the result.

When that happens, if it does, that's when we predict, whether we vote for her or not (and most probably will), that she will be a weak candidate against Trump.

And then, if she wins, we predict she will govern as a rightward-leaning politician.

Perhaps that's what Hillary supporters want, and if so, that's what you will get. It will be cold comfort to count all the "I told you so's" that would become available from a Hillary candidacy from this side of the aisle.

BTW, I'd love to be surprised and find a Hillary FDR-style that could unite the Democratic Party, lead us into Progressive victory and decades of presidential and congressional success, like FDR did. Just let me say I cannot afford to hold my breath.

[MineralMan]

8. She'll get the nomination by winning more delegates.

That's how it works. Despite the oddities of various states' primaries and caucuses, we still have a 50-state process. In the end, the candidate with the most delegates becomes the nominee. Whether we approve or not, as individuals, that is how it goes, and how it has gone for a long time.

What kind of President will Hillary be? I don't know. Much will depend on the makeup of Congress, as always. Maybe we can give her a Congress that isn't controlled totally by Republicans. I sure hope so.

[highprincipleswork]

9. We'll see. Time will tell. Hillary herself has said she respects & understands Bernie's decision.

[Hortensis]

14. Hillary has the popular vote by over 3 million

so far. That's not "crook," that's democracy. Crook is what Bernie is promising to try to do at the convention -- to make deals with enough superdelegates that they would throw the election to him.

It won't happen, of course. There'd be absolutely nothing in it for almost all of them personally, it'd require a betrayal of the whole purpose of the superdelegate system, and, not at all least, an awful lot of these professional political people despise Sanders right back.

But your peculiar notion of how principles work exemplifies what I am finding increasingly intolerable about some of Sanders' more ardent followers. Democracy under the bus. Voters under the bus. Honesty and principle under the bus. Citizenship and probity under the bus. Anything to win.

[Garrett78]

12. CA, NJ and DC account for 2/3rds of the remaining delegates.

As much nonsense as I've seen posted on this site, I still find it hard to believe that anyone honestly thinks Sanders will end up with more pledged delegates. Clinton will undoubtedly end up with a greater margin of victory over Sanders than Obama had over Clinton in 2008.

[IamMab]

13. Sanders has already crossed into "Needs more than 100% of remaining delegates to win" territory.

#BernieSoMath

[whatchamacallit]

16. Is this the same poll data Nate Silver uses to shit the bed?

[HumanityExperiment]

17. Proportional voting trends...

Based upon math... proportional voting trends taken into account to adjust the totals, HRC will not be able to reach the 2383 primary contest pledged delegate count... it will have to come down to SDs when they vote at convention

Feel free to disprove the math concerning this, I have yet to see one HRC supporter dispute this point

[brush]

18. NJ, CA, DC, PR are all very diverse

Bernie does not do well in diverse states. Those states make up 2/3 of the remaining delegates.

You might want to look at your figures again.

[HumanityExperiment]

19. Math...

I have, have you?

HRC only earns nomination at convention through SDs

proportional outcomes would have to weight much heavier towards HRC then they have been and based upon recent outcomes I don't see that happening and I suspect you know that as well...

[brush]

20. I don't know anything of the sort

She will have enough pledged delegates after NY, CA, DC and PR to clinch or she will be very close.

Much closer than Sanders so it will be a first ballot nomination.

Just face it. Bernie has lost.

[HumanityExperiment]

24. Then your being...

intellectually dishonest, she won't have enough, you're correct she'll be close but won't have enough outright to earn nomination until SDs come into play at convention

[Garrett78]

32. You're talking past one another.

She'll have a clear majority of pledged delegates. But it's highly unlikely that she'll have 2383. However, the person with a clear majority of pledged delegates will obviously be the nominee. Getting her to 2383 is a mere formality.

[HumanityExperiment]

45. rules...

then which is it, follow the rules or follow formality and use the rules as a 'guideline'...

[brush]

46. That's what I said. She'll be a first ballot winner.

[CajunBlazer]

21. If you think Sanders still has a good chance to win the nomination...

....take out a second mortgage on your house, withdraw your savings and/or 401K, take out a personal loan, break the piggy bank and take every dime you can lay your hands on a trip to Vegas. The casinos there will give you excellent odds if you vote on Sanders.

[HumanityExperiment]

25. I think...

exactly what I posted
"HRC only earns nomination at convention through SDs

proportional outcomes would have to weight much heavier towards HRC then they have been and based upon recent outcomes I don't see that happening and I suspect you know that as well..."

[apcalc]

28. Like Obama did, eh?

[Garrett78]

36. NJ, CA and DC alone account for 2/3rds of the remaining delegates.

And Sanders won't win either NJ or DC. If he wins CA, I suspect it won't be by much. This essentially means he has to win the rest of the states by Vermont-esque percentages.

[MineralMan]

23. All she has to do is get a majority of

pledged delegates, which is what I'm talking about. The superdelegates will vote for the candidate who does that. Anyone who thinks otherwise is simply wrong.

[HumanityExperiment]

27. My point...

"HRC will not be able to reach the 2383 primary contest pledged delegate count... it will have to come down to SDs when they vote at convention"

still stands regardless of what HRC supporters project, did I state anything different than what I posted above?

SDs can 'pledge' all they'd like, they don't matter in the primary voting cycle UNTIL convention REGARDLESS of the perceptions or misguided intentions of HRC supporters post here or otherwise, this is fact

[PowerToThePeople]

47. I agree with this.

[basselope]

26. Basically meaningless.

It will come down to whether the democratic party wants to win or lose the general election.

Clinton will not reach 2383 in pledged delegates, nor will Sanders.

If they choose to go to with Clinton, they cede the election to Trump.

If they choose to go with Sanders, we get a democrat in the white house.

[Garrett78]

33. Clinton will be an overwhelming favorite against Trump.

The oddsmakers know this. Most people, I reckon, know this. Even many Republicans know it.

[basselope]

37. LOL.

Not only does no body "know it", most KNOW otherwise.

[brush]

48. You need to get away from the Bernie bubble here on DU more

Last edited Thu May 5, 2016, 11:56 AM - Edit history (1)

Try other sites, try cable, try print media.

They're all full of stories today about how repugs are deserting the party because Trump won. They know they've lost it.

Seems only the Bernie or busters haven't gotten it yet.

[Garrett78]

49. The bubble is fascinating, though.

So much that I've seen posted here runs counter to reality. Psychologists would have a field day.

[CompanyFirstSergeant]

31. New Jersey and California....

What are two states I avoid?

[Codeine]

44. We limit open carry here anyway.

Gunners feel all naked and skeeeered.

[redstateblues]

34. Obama lost the last 9 out of 12 primaries in 2008

He's been a great POTUS even though most DUers bash him for not being ideologically pure enough.

[CompanyFirstSergeant]

35. The health insurance companies....

....still have too much power.

[basselope]

38. Best republican president of my lifetime.