Is it actually plausible that Bernie will get 65% in the remaining contests?

[Zynx]

Nope. In fact, I suspect he'll falt out lose New Jersey and New Mexico plus probably a narrow loss in California.

I don't know why people assume California will vote like the highly unrepresentative Washington Caucuses, especially considering that the States aren't actually demographically all that similar, especially comparing caucus electorates to primary electorates.

California is not some monolithic hipsterville and no poll in CA has had Hillary meaningfully below 47% while many have had her north of 50%.

Furthermore, because so much of that vote is cast early, it becomes very hard for Sanders to make it up with the remaining time.

It just doesn't work. It's over. Spread your message if you want, but keep the nastier crap under wraps.

[lame54]

1. you first

[CrowCityDem]

2. But... but... the bird!

[LonePirate]

4. It's possible in MT, ND, OR, SD and WV. It's impossible in CA, DC, KY, NJ and PR.

Case closed.

[rock]

5. How many contests has he won so far by 65%

Let's extrapolate that.

[Zynx]

8. A handful, but only one non caucus state.

[ebayfool]

9. 10 out of 19(18?) wins were over 61%. 8 of those were margins well in excess of 65% ...

1. Minnesota with 61.6%

2. Kansas with 67.7%

3. Maine with 64.3

4. Dems Abroad with 69%

5. Idaho with 78%

6. Utah with 79%

7. Alaska with 81%

8. Hawaii with 69.8%

9. Washington with 72%

10. Vermont with 86.1%

[Adrahil]

11. 8 of those were caucuses.

So TWO primaries. were over the target number: Vermont and Democrats Abroad. There are three caucuses remaining: Gaum, The Virgin Islands, and North Dakota. They have a TOTAL of 35 delegates between them.

Good luck with that!!!

[ebayfool]

15. Whatever floats your boat. I answered a question with facts.

I'll return after work for the balance of my daily allotment snark and sneers.

[Adrahil]

19. True enough... but I was pointing out the applicability. NT

[Zynx]

12. I count one primary other than Dems Abroad, which is sorta silly.

[ebayfool]

13. And the question I answered was ... "How many contests has he won so far by 65%".

I answered. You may not like the answer, but that's what it is.

Caucus suck, yes. But they are what they are, you don't discount voters that are stuck with the system they have to use. Or do you? Dems Abroad are part of the party too. Not silly. I don't get the need to ... oh hell, what's the point.

I gotta go to work. My 9 yr old charge is easier (and less disingenous) than the people I TRY to talk to in GD .

[Zynx]

17. The point is that the remaining contests are almost all primaries.

Bernie rarely gets up to 65% or anything close to it in a primary.

Therefore he stands no chance.

This situation is over.

[Demsrule86]

44. The point is not the system although they do suck

The point is the total= under forty delegates

[onenote]

21. Actually Sanders and Clinton have both won 11 contests with 60+% of the vote

In those 11 contests, Sanders average vote was 71.7 percent and in her 11 big wins Clinton's margin was 71 percent.

This should immediately point out the problem is extrapolating from Sanders' wins any assumption about his future wins. One can't assume anything about the future races without considering a couple of things. For example, Sanders obviously has gotten, on average, a smaller percentage than Clinton in the rest of the races since she's won more of them. Moreover, one can't assume that all of the races that are coming up are more like the ones that he won by big margins than the ones she won by big margins, or vice versa. The fact that a lot more of his big wins came in caucuses is one possible distinguishing factor, given that there are only a few caucuses left and they don't involve places with many delegates. Winning Guam by 75/25 isn't going to make much difference when only 7 delegates are up for grab there.

[ebayfool]

22. On my way out the door (work), but TY for the snark free facts. And the vice versa :)

'Tis a fitting race for a Derby week! Gotta take my girl for her riding lessons, there is a Derby show she's competing in this weekend. Keep your fingers crossed for a 9 yr old with a big heart, cowboy boots and an awesome horse named Banjo!

[onenote]

23. Go get 'em Banjo (and your daughter)!

[ebayfool]

41. LOL! TY. She's my charge, but I've been there since her mama was pregnant (& before).

I've been her nanny from day one, and we are very attached! Worked for her gramma before that, so I guess I'm legacy family. She did very well today, training. Tomorrow is the big day, a local Derby Day competition. Baby girl made it into the Nationals last year, very dedicated! I'll send on the good wishes, she will be thrilled!

Before that I was a cab driver, welding inspector, bartender, waitress, Renaissance Fair artist, on and on. Lotsa hats, but inspector and nanny now that I'm (semi)retired have lasted the longest.

[truedelphi]

30. I hope you can make this into an OP.

And adding in how his losses have come from some seriously non-funny sheninghans, like in his own home county where he lost by 55,000 ballot but where over 100,000 Democrats had been purged from the voting rolls.

[Zynx]

42. There's no evidence whatsoever, nor is it logical to suggest, that the purge affected his voters

disproportionately. Brooklyn is just bad for him demographically.

[Demsrule86]

45. You mean the home he left more than 50 years ago?

She won by double digits...probably hurt her.

[truedelphi]

26. Lets' extrapolate some other things as well -

Bernie didn't win in his own home county, and that could very well be because of a voter purge resulting in over 100,000 Democrats being eliminated voter rolls. He lost the county by a bit over 50,000 votes.

How often is this type of thing happening? Are you aware that we Bernie supporters have contested the vote count in Nevada and New Mexico and Arizona?

[rusty fender]

43. New Mexico hasn't voted yet

[Demsrule86]

46. Meaningless

The election was fine...Bernie just lost.

[LiberalFighter]

29. 7 caucuses and 1 primary

[Zynx]

35. And no primaries outside his home state.

[LiberalFighter]

37. That is a very good point.

[NurseJackie]

6. Recommended.

[MineralMan]

7. Of course not.

That's a fantasy.

[reddread]

14. dont sell David Brock short

significantly dumber than his target

[rbnyc]

16. "Spread your message if you want, but keep the nastier crap under wraps."

Translation:

You are allowed to talk about positive values in a disassociated way, but don't draw attention to real improprieties, bad policy decisions, and other serious concerns that impact the integrity of the Democratic Party. We don't want to be responsible for improving the party. We just want our team to win.*

*Winning is decorative only, the real winner will continue to be global corporate interests at the expense of working people, freedom of expression, access to medicine, and the environment.

[stevenleser]

18. Rarely do you see such a long winded straw man. I congratulate you. nt

[truedelphi]

28. WHAT has happened to you over the years? And BTW,

It can't be a straw man argument if it has truth in it.
But your ad hominum attack is indeed just that!

[rbnyc]

32. Lol

Thanks.

[truedelphi]

33. I admired your post, and was sad it got dragged through the mud

So thank you too!!

[rbnyc]

36. That happens to me...

...almost every time I leave the Bernie forum.

[CentralCoaster]

20. An awful lot can happen in a week, or a month, open investigations, other matters.

Nothing at all has come up in Sanders' past to bite him on the butt.

AFAIK, there are no investigations by federal authorities, no concerns about untoward activities with multinational corporations.

I think Sanders has released all his transcripts.

An awful lot can happen in a week or a month.

An Awful Lot!

[Zynx]

25. Hasn't happened yet. Pretty much every state has followed it's demographics or form of voting.

Non-poll reliant statistical models have actually done even better than 538 at this. None of the vote shares have really been surprising in a big way. They will continue not to be.

[nolawarlock]

24. No.

And it's not only not plausible, I have doubts if it's even possible.

[Corporate666]

27. It's even worse than that...

There are 933 delegates left to win.

Over 600 of them are just in two states... CA and NJ.

Bernie could win 100% of the delegates in ALL the other states, and he still needs to win CA and NJ.

Except he's down by 28 points in NJ, or 35 delegates. To make up that deficit, he would need to win CA by 7.5%. Except he's down in CA right now, anywhere from 2 to 19 points.

It doesn't even look like he can win CA... but even if he could win CA by 7.5%, that would mean he would need to win EVERY OTHER contest (other than NJ) by 100% to 0%. Obviously that is not going to happen... and Clinton is going to win DC as well... meaning he needs to win CA by ever-more impossible margins just to survive.

It has a 0% probability of happening. He's done.

He's been done for weeks - he's just too egotistical and money-grubbing to get out of the race.

[LiberalFighter]

31. He is worse than egotistical.

[Marrah_G]

34. Nope- you don't make the rules. Primary is not over.

[Zynx]

38. I'm calling it in the same way one would call a state with 80% in when someone leads by

10%. That's the sense in which it's over.

[Marrah_G]

39. Nope- Primary is not over

[Zynx]

40. Not technically, but fundamentally. About 80% of the country has voted.

[KingFlorez]

47. It's over save for the formalities.

Nothing is going to dramatically change.

[Demsrule86]

48. You can say it is not over but it is over

Bernie will not be the nominee and he should concede so we can get on with winning the general.