If we nominate Hillary, we give up a huge advantage we'd have with independents; she's negative 42%

[Attorney in Texas]

Last edited Wed May 4, 2016, 06:12 PM - Edit history (1)

Just 20% of independents view Hillary positively, compared with 62% who view her negatively. These are historically bad numbers, and independents now outnumber both Republicans and Democrats (and almost outnumber Republicans plus Democrats) and so no candidate can win without appealing to independents.

Hillary's problem with independents is huge, but her bigger problem may be with the dis-empowered (of both parties) who see that the system is rigged against them and tilted in favor of the wealthiest Americans:



Many of these dis-empowered people (lots of whom are Democrats) do not prioritize immigration issues (either regarding the stupid fucking Mexican-border wall or the blatantly bigoted policies toward Muslims) or foreign militaristic issues (illegally interventionist against ISIL and otherwise neo-isolationist) and so they are not as troubled as you or me by Trump's buffoonish rhetoric on these topics.

The dis-empowered voters see the main issue of the campaign like this: the economy is broken and I am forgotten, and whatever else you might say about Trump and Hillary, he gets it and she doesn't.

When Hillary supporters say they do not see how any Democrats would find Trump's populist message tempting, they sound like the Carter Democrats who said the same thing about Reagan.

I do not disagree with those who say Hillary is the strong favorite to win the nomination and - if nominated - the general election is hers to lose. But if Hillary does not see the pathway to losing against Trump and persists in failing to work toward fixing her gaping weakness, she may be destined to achieving only the level of success that Jeb, and Rubio, and Cruz managed when they underestimated Trump.

[hack89]

1. Why don't we let Democratic primary voters decide who will be the nominee.

don't you trust their judgement?

[AgerolanAmerican]

2. That's a great idea

Perhaps you should relay it to folks in Arizona and New York?

[Hortensis]

20. I'll relay it to you. Hillary's our nominee.

The Democratic Party knows it. Hillary's campaign knows it. The GOP knows it. The Trump campaign knows it. The Koch network of over 700 mega-aires knows it. And so on.

Bernie can't win, but he could make trouble if he didn't rein in his anti-Democratic extremism and get back in touch with reality. How much and how long before he pulls himself together depends on how bad the backlash is and what his demands are. Even if we could we wouldn't open our primaries so hostiles can just come in and take over. But maybe they'll agree on some stick they can thrown him.

[AgerolanAmerican]

27. Not. Yet.

Nice evasion of the election fraud question, though. Good technique. The HRC campaign ought to buy you a new collar.

[Hortensis]

41. And yet, the GENERAL IS ON.

[Attorney in Texas]

3. Isn't that what the next six weeks is about?

[hack89]

4. Yes. And whoever leads with pledged delegates at the end should be the nominee.

do you agree?

[Attorney in Texas]

12. I generally agree. I could foresee exceptions to that general rule, but I generally agree. The party

rules are pretty fucked up, and we should see that those rules are modified to confirm that "whoever leads with pledged delegates at the end should be the nominee." I'd like to see Sanders fight to the convention to see this reform implemented even if he is unable to pull off the upset.

I'd like to see a progressive platform that endorses a $15 minimum wage, recognizes single-payer universal health care as an attainable goal, fights for the repeal of Citizens United, addresses climate change and international trade in a manner that protects both the globe and the workers, and advocates for a more progressive taxation policy that allows us to fund a social safety net by demanding that the corporations and speculators and trust-fund parasites and other ultra-wealthy citizens and businesses who enjoy the benefits of our society disproportionately to fund the system they profit from in proportion to the benefits they take. I'd like to see Sanders fight to the convention to see these goals implemented in our platform even if he is unable to pull off the upset.

The DNC is crawling with lobbyists and opportunists who would exploit the most economically vulnerable; I'd like to see Sanders fight to the convention to clean up the DNC even if he is unable to pull off the upset.

I don't just want Sanders to stay in the race through the convention; I want Sanders and his supporters to occupy the convention.

[NurseJackie]

14. Occupy, huh?

I want Sanders and his supporters to occupy the convention.

You've left yourself a lot of plausible wiggle-room ... but I see what you're getting at.

[Attorney in Texas]

21. I'm getting at reform of the party rules, a better party platform, and restoration of the DNC to

remove the lobbyists and other corrupting influences.

Is that what you see I'm getting at?

[NurseJackie]

30. No. But we can go with that.

That's a safe answer.

[Attorney in Texas]

55. I'm not even sure what you're implying but obviously it's so awesome you're afraid to say it and I'm

not smart enough to think of it yet.

It must be a pretty big idea (maybe not Jon-Snow-is-back big, but obviously pretty damn big).

[NurseJackie]

56. Spoiler alert!

[hack89]

15. There will be no fight at the convention

the first order of business will be to vote - which will make Hillary the official nominee. After that, she runs the convention. It is all about the pivot to the GE. There will not be loud, knock down fights about the platform.

[Attorney in Texas]

22. Are you so sure about that? I'm not.

[hack89]

26. How does it happen?

explain to me how it will happen with Hillary in charge of the platform committee.

[Attorney in Texas]

40. If Sanders cannot pull off the upset, I presume that Hillary would want to try to unify the party.

You may have noticed (or maybe at least someone in the Hillary camp has noticed), Sanders won:

New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Vermon
Kansas
Nebraska
Maine
Democrats Abroad
Michigan
Idaho
Utah
Alaska
Hawaii
Washington
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Rhode Island
Indiana

You must have heard: it was in all the major newspapers.

It does not take a genius to see that no path to party unity excludes the candidate who won these states and who is still in the race picking up more states and delegates week after week.

[hack89]

44. Hillary will set the platform that she runs under

she may make concessions to Bernie but they will be negotiated before hand in return for promises of support from Bernie.

That's how conventions work. Bernie is not going to walk in, kick up a huge ruckus, and expect to get anything out of it except scorn.

[Attorney in Texas]

48. You haven't been to a convention, have you? You think it was a coincidence that Obama picked Hillary

as secretary of state? That's darling!

[hack89]

50. Like I said, negotiated beforehand.

remember how Hillary was the one that called for the roll call vote to end and select Obama by acclamation? That was the price to be SoS. Bernie will do the same if he wants anything from Hillary.

[Attorney in Texas]

57. The only difference is Hillary demanded something for her resume. Sanders would want something for

the people and not for him, personally.

I imagine it will include changes to make the party rules to make the party more open to the grassroots Democrats, I imagine it would include strong representation on the platform committee and might also involve fixing problems at the DNC.

Just like I suggested - I suppose Sanders will fight for the nomination, and if he cannot pull off the upset, he will likely use his influence to improve the party instead of cherry-picking an appointment for himself.

[hack89]

58. He can ask. Doesn't mean he will get it.

if he causes too much of a fuss the Dems will simply take away some of his Senate assignments. They have just a big a hammer as Bernie does. He is not going to disrupt the convention. If he cooperative and pledges to support Hillary than I would not be surprise if some of his ideas end up on the platform.

[Attorney in Texas]

63. We'll see. I don't think threats will work (and would seriously backfire). They have no hammer over

Sanders because he's in his 70s and not in this for his own personal gain or for his resume. They benefit greatly from accomodating him as much as possible.

[TM99]

79. If they threaten to do that,

they are toast.

He has 45% of the primary delegates. Let that sink in buddy.

He will ask. Then he will demand.

[hack89]

84. He will not demand

He will fall into line. Just watch. He's a good Dem now. He is not going to embarrass himself like that.

[TM99]

86. Sanders is not a narcissist like

your candidate. He will demand because he cares about US and not himself.

It won't embarrass him in the least to get pushback from the DNC and Clinton while he continues the fight for us through the convention.

That is what a 'good Dem' used to be and not this pandering bullshit and persona management.

[Jester Messiah]

8. Because they're fucking it up.

Easy enough answer.

[hack89]

11. So you are for democracy as long as your guy is winning.

at least you are honest about it.

[Jester Messiah]

13. I'm for winning the goddamn general election.

In case you didn't notice, we're running against the second coming of Mussolini. Why in the name of all that's good are you people insisting on running the most toxic candidate you can find against him?

[hack89]

17. So throwing away the votes of millions of Democrats is going to help Bernie in the GE?

that is one way to ensure party unity.

[Jester Messiah]

19. Funny to hear that from a Hillarite.

NOW you're worried about party unity? That ship sailed a while ago chummer. Sailed, caught on fire, sank to the bottom of the ocean and was devoured by narwhals.

[hack89]

23. So Bernie can win without the party uniting around him?

so why did he become a Democrat in the first place?

[Jester Messiah]

28. There would be enough, with the independents.

Hillary can't pull enough independents to make up for the people she alienated who were normally part of the base. Bernie alienated less people AND has more independent draw. On the strength of those numbers alone he's the better choice.

But hey, you know, it's her TURN.

[hack89]

33. That explains your contempt for Democratic voters

they didn't deliver what you wanted so fuck em - we will simply invalidate their votes and make Bernie the nominee. Because we want to.

[840high]

127. +100

[JoePhilly]

34. + 1

[amborin]

43. HRC can't win open primaries and you expect her to win the GE?

[hack89]

47. She has won more open primaries then Bernie has

you need to take some time to review what has actually happened instead of latching on to comforting internet memes.

[Codeine]

51. She's won the majority of open primaries.

What election cycle have you been watching?

[rhett o rick]

60. I don't trust the culture of corruption that Clinton represents.

To some, being on the winning side is most important. Just like Jr High. Some liked to hide behind the big bullies so they would be on the winning side. So when Goldman-Sach's profits skyrocket along with the poverty rates, you can be proud that you chose to side with the winner.

[basselope]

76. Not in the least, considering their track record.

[hack89]

82. So you are comfortable ignoring them?

And picking the candidate with fewer votes?

[basselope]

83. They are a minority of a minority, so yes, completely comfortable.

[hack89]

85. So you embrace the idea of Super Delegates as complete free agents

Able to vote for anyone they please. Good.

[basselope]

87. I embrace the idea of fully Open Primaries and no super delegates.

But, since the vote was suppressed via closed primaries and so many people disenfranchised, it doesn't really matter anymore.

I will vote for Bernie if he is the nominee. I will not vote for Clinton if she is the nominee.

[hack89]

90. That's nice. nt

[basselope]

91. Since the democratic party is afraid of voters... I now don't care how Bernie gets the nomination.

[all american girl]

94. How is the democratic party afraid of voters? You are the one wanting the Supers

to overturn the will of millions of voters...and because she happen to have won more open primaries than he did, that's a lot of independents that voted for her. You are unhappy because millions of voters sided with Hillary and not your guy.

[basselope]

107. they need open primaries in ALL states

Otherwise.. they are just afraid.

And yes overturn their "will" bc i dont want president trump which is what u get

[all american girl]

109. Glad to see you like a few to decide for the rest of us...I kind of dig our system, warts and all

As far as open primaries, my state is open, in fact we don't even declare a party...she won it, and more open primaries than Bernie.

[basselope]

112. No, I want ALL to decide...

But, since we didn't get that, the process is already corrupt.

So, at this point we should just get the best candidate, instead of the unelectable one who has left a sting of destruction in her wake.

[all american girl]

113. If you don't mind, I would prefer not to have republicans deciding for us.

I know in 2012, I did just that....went to the primary and voted for Ron Paul, cuz I could.

[basselope]

114. So you are for voter ID laws.

Okay, good to know.

[all american girl]

116. When did I say that....I looked and looked and couldn't find it. Could you point it out for me.

If you don't mind, don't put words in my mouth...that's just rude. I just told you something I had done to back up a point I was making. That's a pretty big jump you made, and the reason you did it was to stop the conversation by lying about what I said.

[basselope]

117. When you brought up the moronic notion of people switching sides in influencing elections.

You are obviously for voter ID laws, because it follows exactly the same logic.

You are making a rule for something that isn't a problem. Does it happen. Yes? Has it ever actually impacted the results of an election? No. Why? because the numbers are so insignificant. But, you are so afraid of this non-thing being a thing that you would rather silence the voices of millions of people.

So, you ARE for voter ID laws.

[all american girl]

118. No, we have an open primary where we do not declare a party...

We do have ID laws, so yes I had to show an ID, but it would not determine what ballot I requested. What's so hard to understand about that. I walked in, I showed them my ID, and requested a ballot. That was our first election with an ID. If you don't think there won't be some people playing games now that Trump is the Republican winner, I think you are being silly. Before, I don't think it was a big issue, everyone wanted to vote for there own person, but it doesn't mean it's not going to happen. And why is it so hard to understand that this is the DEMOCRATIC primary...not the everyone primary. We have those elections....it's called the General Election.

For the record I think ID laws are stupid. Good day

[basselope]

119. Yet you like voter suppression...

Just not voter ID laws.

Okay.

[all american girl]

120. Again, not what I said

and again lying about what I said. join the democratic party, no one is stopping you. It's not hard. Now I'm done, because I have dinner waiting. Have a nice evening.

[basselope]

121. Strangely, it IS that difficult.

Even harder to stay on the voter roles.

I do so love how clintonites twist themselves into a pretzel to support their form of voter suppression.

[tom-servo]

123. I don't trust that they've had enough exposure to Sander's message.

It would be nice to know for sure that he's had a fair hearing...before we make a mistake.

[hack89]

124. What other possible choice is there? Nt

[tom-servo]

125. Maybe if the difference in delegates is small enough...

... the super delegates could consider it a real choice and not a matter of overriding the voters.

[hack89]

126. How close would they have to be? Nt

[tom-servo]

130. An excellent question...

... and maybe one that is related to the number of super delegates?

[amborin]

5. Michael Moore:

Michael Moore Verified account ?@MMFlint 19h19 hours ago

Bernie wins Indiana! Today's poll shows only Bernie beats Trump, but Trump beats Hillary.

Independents decide elections.

They support Sanders

[Attorney in Texas]

25. this ^

[amborin]

45. she can't win open primaries, so she won't be able to win the GE:

[Attorney in Texas]

49. I'm sure the geniuses running her campaign are trying to close the general election even now

[Codeine]

53. She's won the majority of open primaries. nt

[840high]

129. .that^

[Stallion]

6. Define "We" Because Many Aren't Part of "Us" Unless Your Candidate Wins

I certainly don't consider any person unwilling to vote for the Democratic nominee a friend

[hrmjustin]

7. Hillary has won more delegates and votes.

To nominate Sanders is to ignore the will of the people.

[Kelvin Mace]

31. Yes, but its votes in the general that count

and Independents, key to getting elected in every election for some time now, don't like her.

Ask John McCain and Mitt Romney.

[JoePhilly]

35. Ask them what exactly?

[Kelvin Mace]

64. Ask them what happens when you don't sway independents

[hrmjustin]

59. Sanders will not be able to unite Democrats because for him to win the supers would

have to ignore the will of the voters. Many Hillary supporters would not vote for him because they will feel it was stolen from her.

[Kelvin Mace]

62. I would hazard that if he were the nominee

Practically all HRC supporters would vote for hims since he is a genuine liberal. The reverse is not true. HRC alienates Liberals and independents, and absolutely GALVANIZES the right against her. When push comes to shove, Republicans will vote for Trump, against HRC.

Elections are won pretty much by wooing independents. HRC is not to their liking.

The same number of people wouldn't vote for Sanders as didn't vote for Obama,this woman and about six others:

[hrmjustin]

66. You would be wrong.

[Kelvin Mace]

67. Again, people like you claimed that they wouldn't vote for the man

who "stole" the nomination from her.

They voted for him.

[hrmjustin]

68. This is different. Hillary has won more votes and delegates.

To give it to Sanders would actually be stealing the election from Hillary.

That will not be tolerated.

[Kelvin Mace]

69. And again

the primary isn't over and she's under a legal cloud. A federal judge has ruled she may have to testify under oath about her little email server pecadillo. If that happens, it will be like the OJ trial.

Again, you DO NOT win elections without independents and she is not playing well at all with them.

[hrmjustin]

70. Does not justify stealing the election from Hillary.

Sanders can not catch up in the popular vote or delegate vote.

He lost.

[Kelvin Mace]

71. If her questioning goes bad, or she takes the 5th,

or she is flat out indicted, I would guess she won't win jack.

And one more time, winning the primary does her no good if she loses in the general.

[hrmjustin]

72. And stealing the race from her makes Sanders a sure loser.

[Kelvin Mace]

73. Let's try this again

I'll type slowly.

The nomination is hers to lose. If the questioning becomes a side show or she is indicted, Sanders will have stolen nothing from her. She will have lost due to her own arrogance and incompetence.

She then has to win the general where she is disliked by independents and loathed by the Right.

[hrmjustin]

74. Let me be clear for you. She will not be indicted.

She has won.

[Kelvin Mace]

77. She hasn't "won" anything

until the delegates are counted.

Last I checked, time is LINEAR.

And then she goes into the general with Independents not on her side.

[hrmjustin]

80. She has won 300 more delegates and 3 million more votes than Sanders.

[Kelvin Mace]

81. Yes, I am quite familiar with the official talking point

However, she hasn't won until the convention occurs and the delegates vote. A long time off in politics.

Again, time is LINEAR.

[hrmjustin]

88. My point still stands. Steal it from her and Sanders will not get our support.

[Kelvin Mace]

92. Blowing the election herself

due to her own misconduct isn't Sanders stealing anything. When she loses in the general thanks to alienating liberals and indepedents will that be "stealing" as well?

[all american girl]

95. If he steals the nom, I'm afraid you would be wrong.

To steal the nom from her, when she has more votes and delegates, would be a slap in the face to all those who worked hard for her campaign. It would be a slap in the face to all those who got off their asses, stood in line and voted for her. This isn't like what happened in 2008, where Obama was leading the delegate count. This would be saying that a man, who couldn't beat her, is better than her because of some mythical reason. Trust me, that won't end well

[Kelvin Mace]

98. The primary election is hers to lose

I doubt Sanders will "steal" anything. The question in play is whether we will get to the convention just as she has to testify under oath, and either gives a lot "I don't recall" answers, or flat out pleads the Fifth.

In those circs, "Superdelegates" might get cold feet.

Personally I believe that IF elected, she will be impeached shortly thereafter since the GOP is insane and their insanity is only surpassed by their hatred for all things Clinton, especially when named Hillary.

The major problem she faces is that she may win the nomination, but will lose enough independents (who will vote Trump) and liberal Millennials (who will vote Green or write in Sanders) to hand the race to Trump.

[all american girl]

99. Pretty much everything you wrote is...well...

just made up...I really can"t think of proper words to say. Yes, some independents will vote for Trump, because they are conservative...remember, there are conservative independents. Polling has shown that many Bernie supports will support Hillary, and in large numbers.

This impeachment crap that people like to throw around, you know there has to be a actual crime...so, no.

The emails are going know where. It's just crap that Fox, Rush and the gang like to yell about....like Benghazi...they are just hoping if they demand and throw enough shit something will happen...

[Kelvin Mace]

100. No, I didn't "make it up"

The Republicans don't need an actual crime to impeach, they will invent one out of whole cloth, or take advantage of her stupidity about keeping an unsecured mail server.

It is hard to claim that the email issue is going "nowhere" when a federal judge just said she may be required to testify under oath about the issue and they have granted immunity to her IT guy who installed it.

Now do I beleive she had "criminal intent" or committed a crime? Not really, but what I think is irrelevant, it's what the FBI and a federal judge think that matters and she left herself wide open to this by her own actions.

The independent vote is how you win elections and right now HRC is NOT polling well with independents. Meanwhile, her surrogates and supporters are also doing their damndest to piss off Millennial voters.

So, she is very likely the nominee, unless she gets drags into the machinery over the email server. Then she has to win the general election, not a certainty by any means, then she has to deal with a congress that hates her more than Obama.

[Jitter65]

9. When Bernie is out, that will change in her favor. nt

[Yurovsky]

18. She is not acceptable to many progressives...

myself included. A corporatist is not going to get my vote, regardless of their party affiliation. If a racist Democrat won the nomination, they wouldn't get my vote either. I refuse to compromise on my core principals, and when their is a viable, progressive alternative in Bernie, other Democrats need to support him in the coming weeks to ensure we nominate a candidate capable of CRUSHING Trump.

[liberal_at_heart]

10. If it is Trump vs. Hillary, Trump will get the Independents.

He has already proven during the primaries he can get Independents to vote for him. Hillary cannot. She does not have the Independent vote. I also think the left leaning Independent Bernie supporters will either stay home, write in Bernie's name or vote third party. I am an Independent, but I would rather not say who I will vote for if it is Trump vs. Hillary. That is my business and no one else's.

[Attorney in Texas]

16. Trump gets independents and Republicans. Millennial Democrats stay home (or vote Jill Stein).

Hillary gets older Democrats.

This is the path to a Trump Presidency.

[Yurovsky]

24. Exactly. And there aren't enough of them to win in November.

Older Democrats are simply to few in number to overcome the GOP, Independent, progressives, and various 3rd party voters who will refuse to vote fr Hillary. She's damaged goods, and the damage is mostly self-inflicted.

[Kelvin Mace]

32. Precisely!

[JimDandy]

37. Clinton is courting and will probably pull some Republican women (single 30s-40s)

and Republican Hispanics. Republicans nationwide are just 23% of registered voters though, so votes from those demographics can't overcome the loss of Independents (45%) and disaffected SBS voters like me.

[JoePhilly]

36. That's nonsense.

He's winning the insane GOP base and little else.

Most of the "independents" he has won are Tea Party whack jobs who left the GOP the day Obama took office.

These are people who were never going to vote for ANY Democrat anyway. Bernie was never going to win those not jobs.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

29. So if they cant get $15 an hour with Bernie, they will take an abolishment of the MW

with Trump?

Makes no sense.

[senz]

38. Tiny minds can't see beyond "Party." Independents aren't real to them. Neither is the GE.

[Tarc]

39. Most voters in the Democratic primaries do not share this assessment

Bernie didn't win the nomination. This isn't a 2nd-grade penmanship class where everyone gets stickers just for trying, y'know.

[Attorney in Texas]

42. Maybe you noticed that the race is not over. They don't call the game in the seventh inning.

[Tarc]

52. Camp Sanders frequently misuses the baseball analogy. Let me help you out with that

A team is up 15-3 in the 8th inning, so the manager starts to sit some of his regulars and letting the bench finish the game. The other guys score 10 runs in 2 innings against the team that really isn't trying anymore, and lose 15-13.

15-3 or 15-13, a loss is a loss. It doesn't matter if Sanders starts winning the remaining primaries at 60%, it still isn't enough to catch up. The threshold that he needs to hit, 66-67%, is out of reach, and every time he doesn't reach it, it increases the threshold on the rest. Sanders won Indiana but actually lost ground.

Sit and relax and cheer Sanders on as he racks up a few more delegates, but don't kid yourself into thinking it puts the party nomination in play, still. That's over.

[Attorney in Texas]

54. No doubt Hillary is the strong favorite. No one suggests otherwise. Good luck in West Virginia.

[Skwmom]

46. That is a number that is going to go much higher..

[Bill USA]

61. HRC has won 12.2 miln votes, Trump: 10.1 miln - this is with none of the people voting for Bernie

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511891571



At the starting gate: Clinton leads Trump by double-digits - CNN

[Attorney in Texas]

65. You get that is not how the general election works, right? You understand that 12 million votes is

barely even a drop in the general election bucket, right?

[Bill USA]

78. do you understand the concept of extrapolating from a sample?? IF you had gone to the post I

provided a link too you might have seen the the statements below.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511891571

WE still have some more states to go, in particular California. But if the trend continues it looks like Clinton will get more votes than Trump when the primary's are all over. [font size="+1"]So one might make a prediction that in a head to head with Trump, Clinton would beat him without any of those people who voted for Bernie[/font].

NOTE the word "prediction" in the sentence in the excerpt, above. Note I said "if the trend continues" .. when you hear predictions based upon polls they are doing the same thing. Making an estimate of the results of the final "poll" .. the General Election based upon polling of a subset (presumed to be representative of the entire population) of all the registered voters in the country. I am doing the same thing using the votes cast in the primaries. NOTE that I said: "if the trend continues".

Another way to estimate what will happen in November is to check how people are betting on the GE.

at PredictIt they have Clinton at:

0.62 vs Trump at: 0.39 . NOw this can be taken as a prediction of the result of the GE, but it does not predict the margin - that is the difference in votes between the two candidates.


Hang in there!

[Attorney in Texas]

106. You had better hope that's bullshit (relax - it is) because Republicans set turnout records and the

Democrats generally set records only in the strongest Sanders states and Hillary's strongest states saw anemic turnout. If primary turnout is predictive of general election performance, we'e fucked.

Moreover, looking at Hillary's votes is moronic (or misleading - I'll assume you were not being misleading). Obviously, vote totals skip over many caucus states and Sanders generally creamed Hillary in the caucuses where passion for a candidate and an ability to articulate why you support a candidate both count. Moreover, measuring Hillary's vote totals against Trump's compounds the misleading nature inherent in short-counting the caucus states by comparing votes in a 2-person race (after Iowa) versus votes in a multi-candidate race. For example, Hillary lost Michigan but her percentage of the vote there would looks pretty damn fine in a 4-candidate race. Comparing 2-candidate vote totals to 4-candidate vote totals is not like comparing apples to oranges; it's comparing apples to an apple core.

Hillary's persistence in making such arguments that a B-student in junior high could see through is part of the reason why nobody trusts her and "liar" and "dishonest" are words closely associated with Hillary:



People won't stop thinking of Hillary as a liar and dishonest until she stops talking shit. The "I have 3 million more votes" nonsense is the EXACT type of misleading bullshit that REINFORCES the perception that Hillary is dishonest.

[Bill USA]

122. Repubs have big turnout & still HRC has more votes than Trump? If you R assuming all th GOP primary

votes for other candidates will go to Trump. Now that is what I'd call either moronic or misleading.

And it's not realistic to think ALL Bernie fans will, with childish vindictiveness, refuse to vote for Hillary. 40% of Repubs polled said they would not support Trump. Now, if you take an extreme estimate, let's say only half the Bernie voters will vote for Hillary ... that would bump up Hillary's vote total to 16,834,471 compared to Trump's 15,290,105 (taking all the votes cast in GOP primaries multiplied by .6 = 15,290,105). So, 16.8 mil is greater than 15.2 mil. This is just the votes cast in the primaries so far - adjusted for a race just between Hillary and Trump. Again, this is making an assumption that the voting in these primaries will be an indicator or how the rest of the country will vote in the GE. It will be a better indicator after the California results are in.

RE Caucus states: Now when adding the votes in the states that had primaries & caucuses (the caucus states (13 at this point for Dems) the caucus state totals reduce HRC's votes as well as Sanders and regardless, that wouldn't make that much difference when comparing to Trumps numbers- since GOP also had caucus states too - (11 so far). Thus the vote totals of the candidate could be used as an indicator of how the rest of the states would vote in the GE. Using these numbers then, it could be expected that Hillary will beat Trump. Yes, this is just an estimate......


[font size="3"] ... Sooooo, if you prefer you can go by what the odds are on who would win a presidential race between Clinton and Trump.....

Hillary Clinton vs Trump is the most lopsided US election race in the modern era: Hillary: 69% vs Trump: 29%[/font]

Now that he’s wrapped up the nomination, his chances of being America’s next president have shot up from 17 per cent to 29 per cent.

But that still makes Hillary Clinton a 69 per cent favorite (Mr Sanders or ‘some other Republican’ both have a 1 per cent chance).



That means Ms Clinton begins this six-month race more favoured than any other candidate in modern history: more than Mr Obama ever was against John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012, or George Bush was against Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.

(more)

[font size="+1"] Hey, I think I'll go with that.[/font]

[font size="3"]...OH, and thanks for the artwork from America Rising:

"America Rising is a Republican opposition research organization that was co-founded in 2013 by Matt Rhoades, former campaign manager for Mitt Romney, along with Tim Miller and Joe Pounder, two staffers who worked for the Republican National Committee."

"America Rising is comprised of a "super PAC" (America Rising PAC) [font color="red"]and a limited liability company that can legally work directly with political campaigns and committees[/font]"

see: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/America_Rising

Oh, here's an interesting number: [/font]

[font size="+1"]
Poll: 3-in-4 say Benghazi panel politically motivated - CNN

But hey, I gotta give it to the Repugnants - their 25 year campaign to demonize both President Clinton and Hillary has been quite succussful. Many people think she's not trustworthy - and they don't even know why!

But I must say this in closing: Trump is a Con-man's Con-man. But that makes him a perfect GOP candidate![/font]

[Ash_F]

133. There were way more Republican candidates to split the vote though

If you look at overall votes, Republicans have had higher turnout this cycle in the swing states.

This is a big problem no matter who is the Dem nominee.

[JI7]

75. Romney beat Obama with indies

[HooptieWagon]

103. No, it was near 50/50.

And Obama had huge support from young voters and the Democratic Left, a great many of whom will not vote for Hillary; and massive AA support, which Hillary likely will see a drop-off. Even with near 100% support of Democrats, she has to get a near 50/50 split with indies...and she's far short on both accounts.

[workinclasszero]

89. If Bernie can't win the democratic nomination

what makes you think he could win the general??

[grossproffit]

96. Because it's his turn!!!

[workinclasszero]

97. Yes we need another old white guy for president

they are so very under represented in that office.

[HooptieWagon]

104. Traditional liberal IS under-represented.

Many voters think policy is more important than gender or race.

[thesquanderer]

93. re: "no candidate can win without appealing to independents."

Neither Clinton nor Trump appeals to most independents. One of them is going to win regardless.

[bkkyosemite]

101. Yes we would

[justiceischeap]

102. Trump is negative 67%

among Indies...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/independents-are-souring-on-hillary-clinton-1462310510

Mr. Trump’s standing among independents is even worse than that of his would-be general-election rival. Just 19% of independents viewed Mr. Trump favorably in the latest poll, while 67% had a negative opinion.

Plus Clinton, in a recent poll, would gain close to 20% of the Republican vote if (since) Trump gets the nomination.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/04/25/bombshell-poll-20-republicans-vote-hillary-clinton-trump-wins.html

A new Suffolk University poll has found that 19% of Republicans say they will support Hillary Clinton if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination.

[seabeyond]

105. No "if's". It is a done deal.

[Attorney in Texas]

108. You should tell the Hillary folks in West Virginia, Oregon, California, etc. to stay home because

the primary is over.

Thanks for your help in this small but important task!

[seabeyond]

111. Votes will continue and STILL, it is a done deal.

[jzodda]

110. To nominate Bernie then means millions of Clinton votes are then worthless?

The problem is a math problem.

Clinton has many more pledged delegates.

Clinton has many more unbound delegates.

Clinton has won millions more individual votes.

To go with polling as a reason to disenfranchise millions of voters?

If they did that then I won't vote at all in November and I wouldn't be the only one. Those polls don't reflect how people would react to having the winner by all accounts have her win stolen from under.

[LexVegas]

115. Why are minorities fucking this up for poor Bernie?

[Attorney in Texas]

132. So you get to define who's a minority? I suppose that makes identity over ideology politics easier.

Bernie Sanders Most Popular Candidate Among Asian-Americans

Bernie Sanders wins big with Michigan Muslims

"Both candidates have been vying for the Hispanic vote in deadlocked Nevada, and Sanders narrowly edges Clinton with the group in Colorado, by a 41-38 margin."

[pnwmom]

128. There's no if about it. Bernie is NOT going to be the nominee. The idea that he can somehow

get 84% of all remaining pledged and super delegates is nuts.

[Attorney in Texas]

131. Please share your views with Clinton's supporters in West Virginia, Oregon, California, etc. Thanks!