2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary +28 in New Jersey
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d689fc25-56ed-482b-bbb8-edbd9e49a6e2.pdfa healthy dose of Garden State love when the primary season ends in June. The Monmouth University
Poll gives Clinton a nearly 2-to-1 lead in New Jerseys primary. The poll also finds that most Democratic
voters feel that picking Sen. Cory Booker as her running mate wouldnt give her campaign much of a
strategic advantage.
Clinton has the support of 60% of likely Democratic voters in New Jersey while Sanderss support
stands at 32%. Clinton holds a lead among nearly every demographic group in the electorate, including
voters age 50 and older (70% to 25%), voters under 50 (51% to 38%), black voters (64% to 24%), white
voters (60% to 34%), and women (69% to 22%). The only group where Sanders is competitive is among
Democratic men, earning 45% to 49% for Clinton
Human101948
(3,457 posts)As will her lead over Trump when the General Election gears up. There has been a disturbing pattern of diminishing leads that could spell disaster in November.
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)Why in heavens name would Monmouth poll just "likely Democratic voters."
Unaffiliated can vote in the primary in NJ.
Here's the voter registration breakdown. As of 11/30/2015
2,605,919 Unaffiliated
1,747,551 Democrat
1,058,277 Republican
4,816 Other
In other words, there are 50% more independents than Democrats in the state. Might be a good idea to include them in the poll.
oasis
(49,317 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)Wait for the next Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. They include unaffiliated, and are therefore more accurate. From the poll they did last month:
Sen. Bernie Sanders for the nomination but for the first time only by single digits, 51 percent (down four points) to 42 percent (up 10 points). Democratic-leaning independents appear to be fueling Sanders momentum, with just over half of this group choosing the Vermont senator. Confirmed Democrats, on the other hand, firmly support Clinton, at 57 percent.
The preferences of unaffiliated voters could be an important factor in the primary, said
Koning. New Jerseyans who have not yet declared a party affiliation may do so at the polls on primary day, and those who want to switch parties could have done so up until just a few days ago.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... going forward to even hope to have a chance at being competitive. He has no chance.
SURRENDER BERNIE.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)So many think he just needs to win states and he'll get the nomination! He needs to win every state like Hillary won Maryland. It's totally delusional.
They forget that Obama lost 9 of the last 12 states in 2008.