Politico: It's mathematically impossible for Bernie to win with pledged delegates

[stopbush]

There’s one more reason for Bernie Sanders focus his energy on winning over super delegates — it's now mathematically impossible for him to reach the magic number for the Democratic nomination by winning the remaining pledged delegates alone.

Here's how it works: After winning Indiana, Sanders has 1,399 pledged delegates and super delegates to his name, according to the Associated Press' count. That means he needs 984 more to reach the threshold of 2,383 needed to win.

The remaining contests, however — Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the District of Columbia — only have 933 pledged delegates to offer.

So even if Sanders were to win 100 percent of the pledged delegates in each of those states, he wouldn't make it past the mark. Hence his efforts to win over superdelegates, the party leaders and elites who can choose their candidate regardless of how their states vote. That strategy is a long shot at best for Sanders: of the 719 super delegates, Clinton leads 520 to 39.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/math-says-bernie-sanders-is-finished-222775#ixzz47jSKFCfU

[OwlinAZ]

1. Gee, the media and corporate Dems have

been saying that for the past 4 months.
If that is our system - it dam well needs changing. Now

[stopbush]

2. Last anyone looked, it's the system Sanders agreed to be a part of

to run as a D.

[msongs]

8. but he's special and above all that nt

[virtualobserver]

3. Bogus argument....Hillary isn't going to reach 2383 with pledged delegates either

[MrWendel]

4. ...

[virtualobserver]

7. Hillary DU is a one trick pony---and that pony is named Ridicule.

[Stuckinthebush]

9. It's so easy to ridicule the ridiculous

The Bernie campaign has become the ridiculous.

[virtualobserver]

12. Whatever makes you feel good about yourself.

[MrWendel]

20. Winning the Nomination...

does feel pretty good actually.

[virtualobserver]

21. so "good" it motivates you to ridicule others

[MrWendel]

26. Motivation?

No. Duty? Yes.

[virtualobserver]

27. You spelled doody wrong.

[MrWendel]

28. At no time during our conversation...

have I tried to spell Bernie Bro.

[virtualobserver]

29. you just did

[MrWendel]

30. Yes.

Yes I did. YOU ON THE BALL TODAY!

[lagomorph777]

32. I thought it was named Liar

Hillary Math seems to be made up by kindergartners.

[Mike Nelson]

5. It's over...

...Hillary wins by any count. Super-delegates will likely switch from Bernie to Hillary. But, it's his choice to pick the moment to exit.

[Beacool]

6. Don't waste your breath.

The Sanders' side of the aisle is now living in a mirror world where pledged delegates and majority of votes don't count at all. It's all about the "yutes" and how he should be the nominee because the young have voted for him in larger numbers than for Hillary. Ditto for Independents. Registered Democrats don't seem to count in this parallel world. Why should the will of actual Democrats be taken into account when deciding a Democratic nominee??? Nahhh, ignore them. What do they know anyway? It's only their party.......





I need a drink.....

[lagomorph777]

33. IN Bernie math, "majority" means ">50%"

In Hillary math, apparently 41.5% counts as a majority.

Are you happy to say "FU" to all the remaining voters? You think that's democratic?

Or are you so terrified of them that you desperately want Bernie to quit? You wouldn't be bothering to talk about him if you weren't worried.

[Beacool]

35. Terrified? Please.........

It's become tiresome reading post after post on how Sanders still has a path at the nomination. He doesn't.

[lagomorph777]

36. So relax. Your candidate is juuust fine... nothing to see here..

California is a shoe-in. Hillary can stay home, kick back, have a martini...

Pay no attention to the FBI... pay no attention to the polls...

[Scurrilous]

10. K & R

[whistler162]

11. So quit whining and let the Primaries finish!

[stopbush]

13. The only person whining is Sanders.

Oh, and Jane.

[lagomorph777]

34. Spelling correction: "The only person WINNING is Sanders"

if you are actually watching the trends.

[jeff47]

14. And it's also mathematically impossible for Clinton to win with pledged delegates.

Unless you're going to claim she will win the remaining primaries by about 80-20. And if you're going to make that claim, you better have something stronger than wishful thinking to back it up.

[stopbush]

15. Wrong. It is highly improbable that Hillary would win

enough pledged delegates alone to reach 2383, but it is not mathematically impossible. It could be done. Hillary has 1635 pledged delegates. She needs 748 of the remaining 933 pledged delegates to hit 2383.

But it is mathematically impossible for Sanders. There are not enough delegates available to him. He needs 984 pledged delegates to hit 2383.

[jeff47]

19. So you're gonna claim she could get every single delegate from here out

and not call that "impossible".

Yeah. Sure. Next, all you have to buy is every possible combination of powerball numbers, and you'll surely win!!

[stopbush]

22. It's not my fault that you don't know what the phrase

mathematically impossible means.

[jeff47]

23. No, it's your fault for excluding a large portion of math

Probability is math too.

So, you need to show that Clinton is likely to win all of the remaining primaries by 80-20 or more. Otherwise math shows she can't get enough unpledged delegates to clinch the nomination either.

[stopbush]

24. Here ya go:

Sanders drops out, supports Hillary and tells the electorate to vote for her in the remaining primaries. She ends up reaching 2383 in pledged delegates. If she got the remaining 933 delegates, she'd end up around 2600 pledged delegates. It's possible.

Hillary drops out. She tells the remaining electorate to cast their votes for Sanders. He wins the remaining 933 pledged delegates. He's still 50 delegates short of reaching 2383 in pledged delegates, because it's mathematically impossible for him to reach 2383 with only 933 delegates remaining.

[CajunBlazer]

16. K&R

[AgingAmerican]

17. Debbie Wasserman Schultz called the election for Hillary last September

Why are we still talking about it?

[NorthCarolina]

18. There's plenty of uncommitted Superdelegates left though

[stopbush]

25. About 151. Sanders is getting about 6% of the supers, so

based on the current percentage, he might get 9 supers out of what's left.

[lagomorph777]

31. No matter how many times we debunk this lie, it keeps coming back today.

No, we are not falling for this nonsense.

We are not talking about differential equations or calculus here. Simple arithmetic.

Delegates Clinton Sanders Delegate
Delegates+Supers 4763 2205 1401
Delegates Won 4051 1683 1362
Superdelegates (712) 522 39

Counting only elected delegates (i.e. the legitimate delegates):

To get a majority of PDs (2026):
Hillary needs 343 more PDs
Bernie needs 664 more PDs

There are 1006 PDs still available. Absolutely it is a narrow path for Bernie. But it is a complete lie to say it's "mathematically impossible" for Bernie. Not an opinion, not a perception. A complete, mathematical, provable LIE.

As for supers, Bernie has pointed out that the ones who choose to defy the popular vote in their states do so at their political peril. Most of them are also elected officials!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html