New California poll: Hillary up 49-39

[DCBob]

2016 California Democratic Presidential Primary
April 28-May 1, 2016
1,617 Democratic likely voters

Hillary Clinton 49%
Bernie Sanders 39%
Undecided 12%

http://capweekly.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Toplines-5-3.pdf

==============

June 7 will be big day for Hillary with big wins in CA, NJ and NM.

[grossproffit]

1. Everyone knows it's over except for Bernie & his busters.

[DCBob]

3. They are suffering from the 3D's... Desperation, Delusion and Denial.

[kcjohn1]

2. According to this poll

72% of the voters will be 45+.

Indiana only 55% of the voters were above 45. It also has 65+ bracket making 27% of the total voters, which is nearly double what we saw in Indiana.

[DCBob]

4. California is not Indiana.

[kcjohn1]

6. Yea its more progressives and younger state

I would expect 50%/50% split between those under 45 and those over.

[DCBob]

9. It's also semi closed.. Indiana was open.

Major difference.

[DLCWIdem]

30. its also more diverse with hispanics and AA ie less white

[bobbobbins01]

5. Bullshit poll...from the website of the pollster:

"We serve as political consultants and public opinion researchers; conducting quantitative and qualitative research and analyzing results in order to create a strategy to help clients achieve their goals – whether that’s winning elections, changing views on key issues or increasing market share."

"Our clients include political candidates and candidate support organizations, ballot measure committees, issue advocacy groups, labor unions and government agencies as well as corporations and business interests."

[delrem]

44. Yah, they're all the same. Hucksters to the end.

[Skink]

7. Bernie will make that up in a week

If he hasn't already. Should be + 20 by June.

[DCBob]

8. LOL!

[KingFlorez]

13. The poll was taken for those likely to vote in the Democratic primary

It didn't say anything about independents being excluded from the poll. If it excluded independents, there wouldn't have been any data on how independents will vote.

NPP and Independent are the same thing. Independent isn't a party and neither is NPP, both are just terms for voters who don't align with a party.

[KingFlorez]

16. They were included

You are trying to say that the pollster did something nefarious, but your argument just is not true. The data for independents is there, so they were polled.

[DLCWIdem]

27. there actually is an independence party in Ca --- its a confederate party

[DCBob]

14. " All responses were collected.. from registered Democrats and No Party Preference voters"

First sentence..

http://capweekly.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Toplines-5-3.pdf

[DCBob]

20. The first statement in the report says they did.

[KingFlorez]

21. Independent and No Party Preference is the same thing

Educate yourself about politics.

[KingFlorez]

25. AIP CANNOT VOTE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

No legitimate poll would include American Independent Party voters, because they can't vote in the Democratic primary. They would have to switch to Decline to State or Democratic. California is a semi-closed primary.

[DLCWIdem]

28. thereis some kind of independent party in CA which is a confederate party.

[DCBob]

32. DId you finally realize what AIP.is?

Certainly not what you thought!

[DLCWIdem]

29. AIP california independence party

Hey guys we been laughing at you for a month now, because you wont listen to us because we are stupid. Even now you are not listening to us and telling us to educate ourselves. California has a independent party it is a super right confederarate party which issues are segregation, anti abortion and anti gay. Now npr just did a study and polled members 70% thought they were registering for a different kind of party. This AIP party cannot participate in the Democratic voting. So if I were you I would go educate myself. Go to Npr and find out for yourself.

[KingFlorez]

12. And when you consider this, it should be an even wider margin

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-sanders-fundraising-california-20160505-story.html

[KingFlorez]

19. You've been told that this is misleading more than once

Just stop. You are not telling the truth about the methodology of the poll.

[KingFlorez]

26. If they weren't included how is there any data about Sanders leading by 15% among independents?

[Starry Messenger]

31. Yup.

CA Poll: Bernie up with independents, but Hillary still holds sway
http://capitolweekly.net/hillary-bernie-independents-poll-california/

<snip>

But this group of new registrants is far smaller, only 16% of the number of likely voters. If that entire group were to vote, and favor Sanders by an 80%-to-20% margin, it would almost close the current gap. Our data — admittedly a small sample – shows Sanders leading Clinton in this group by 67%-27%.

That Sanders advantage could be blunted by any higher-than-expected turnout of African-American and Latino voters, where Clinton has a decided advantage.

<snip>

In our survey, one-third of NPP voters said they did not plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The remainder is evenly split between re-registering as Republicans or not casting a presidential vote.

That alone takes the NPP percentage under 20%.

Then there is the additional issue for NPP voters described in depth on this site last week – the half of NPP voters who are Permanent Absentee Voters and must fill out and return a card to their County Clerk requesting the Democratic presidential ballot. As Paul Mitchell pointed out, the return rate has been anemic thus far. If half of these voters don’t end up with a Democratic presidential ballot, the NPP percentage for that election falls to around 15%.

<snip>

[Beacool]

33. Good.......

[Live and Learn]

34. Dream on, Hillary can't even get an audience in CA. nt

[ucrdem]

37. She gets targeted audiences, and several per day.

For example on Thursday, the same day as the ELAC speech, she met with local Dem representatives at the African American Museum in LA:

[Live and Learn]

38. All 6 of them, wow. nt

[ucrdem]

39. 6 superdelegates = South Carolina.

Remember South Carolina?

[Live and Learn]

40. Are they traveling with her now? Silly attempt at misdirection. nt

[workinclasszero]

35. Wow!

Go Hillary!

(Call it Skinner)

[nolawarlock]

36. I'm sure his supporters speaking "f#ck you" to children isn't helping his cause with parents. nt

[Live and Learn]

41. THINK OF TFHE CHILDREN. And by all means protect them from 'free speech'. We can't have them

hearing what that PERSON said.

[nolawarlock]

42. Have it your way.

I'm just sure when they're looking at all the reasons he couldn't pull of a win, that's the kind of behavior folks will remember.

[Live and Learn]

43. Folks like you, you mean? The rest of us will be either celebrating our chance at a future with

a Bernie win or working to stop whatever asinine policies are put forth. Which, by the way, you will be responsible for if they are made by Hillary.

One thing is for sure, we are not going away. Bank on that.

[nolawarlock]

45. Will I?

Last edited Sat May 7, 2016, 03:53 PM - Edit history (1)

I live on a red state. My vote will not really matter of I vote Republican and that's not ever happening

[Live and Learn]

46. Is someone forcing you to stay there? If not, quit whining and get involved or move.

I've been waiting for some Hillary supporters to show up in CA. By the way, don't bother trying to recruit Hillary supporters on DU, they are all post and no show from what I have seen.

[nolawarlock]

47. Wait to change the subject.

I love where I live but I also realize my vote probably isn't going to mean much. I live in a very liberal city so protesting here isn't going to mean much either and I'd rather avoid the swamps if I can.