Fellow Hillary Supporters, Please Stop Saying that Bernie is "Mathematically Eliminated"

[firebrand80]

What you're saying is that he can no longer get the majority of all delegates with PDs alone. This is true, but that's not really a useful standard. Neither candidate will win the majority of all delegates with PDs alone. The standard is who gets the the magic number with PDs + SDs. Everyone knows (even those that won't admit it) that the SDs will follow whoever has the most PDs at the end of the process, so the PD winner is the winner of the primary.

When you argue that Bernie can't get to the magic number with PDs alone, you open yourself up to the argument that Hillary won't either (she won't), and thus, the SDs would be justified in picking a candidate based on some other standard than the will of the voters. This won't happen, unless these elected officials for some reason thought it a good idea to tear the party apart, flush their own political futures down the toilet, and hand the White House to Donald Trump with a 60-vote Senate.

So, the standard is which candidate will have more PDs at the end of the process. That candidate will be Hillary, unless something radically changes the race. Just calm down and let it play out. Any Bernie supporters that thinks some other scenario is likely will figure this out soon enough.

[Dawgs]

1. Not a Hillary supporter, but nice post.

[stonecutter357]

2. Time to primary BS and his bro's.

[Shemp Howard]

10. What are you talking about?

Are you saying that Bernie should be targeted the next time he runs for the Senate, in order to deny him the office?

I'm certainly not against targeting an elected official that way, if there is a good reason to do so. But what is the reason here? Because he is running against Hillary? Because he has said unfavorable things about Hillary? Because he has not conceded yet?

Should any candidate who dares to run against the party favorite be purged, as some sort of punishment? I just don't get that kind of logic.

[stonecutter357]

13. Are you saying in order to deny him the office?

yes i am, bernie hates the democratic party.

[grasswire]

15. and you presume to speak for the people of Vermont? nt

[Shemp Howard]

20. Now we're getting somewhere.

It would be repulsive to primary Bernie (or anyone else) because that person dares to challenge a party favorite.

But it is fair to primary a person whose views do not fit the party as a whole. Primary that person, then let the voters decide.

But I do not see Bernie's views as being out of sync with the rest of the D party. And I certainly don't see him as "hating" the party. He just represents a reformist wing of the D party, even though he's officially an I (weird, I know).

If the DNC is foolish enough to primary him, Bernie will still keep his seat. And tons of people - especially young people - won't forget the slight.

[JaneyVee]

3. We're including superdelegates. So is Bernie.

[Cheese Sandwich]

4. Bernie is just trying to win a majority of the regular delegates. He wants 2026 pledged delegates

That's really it.

[uponit7771]

5. OK, Sanders wont be able to get close enough to have a higher number of delegates. That's syntax...

... and still doesn't change the point he has a slim to none chance of winning the overall nomination

[firebrand80]

7. I agree that is chances are slim to none

But the "mathematically eliminated" argument is not a good one.

[lagomorph777]

9. It may be "syntax" (whatever that means)

But mathematically it is simply provably FALSE. Bernie would have to both win some upcoming primaries with big margins, and persuade some SDs not to behave undemocratically. But to claim mathematical impossiblity is a bald-faced lie.

[BootinUp]

6. KNR

[lagomorph777]

8. Here's the math.

Please examine the numbers. We are not talking about differential equations or calculus here. Simple arithmetic.

Delegates Clinton Sanders Delegate
Delegates+Supers 4763 2205 1401
Delegates Won 4051 1683 1362
Superdelegates (712) 522 39

Counting only elected delegates (i.e. the legitimate delegates):

To get a majority of PDs (2026):
Hillary needs 343 more PDs
Bernie needs 664 more PDs

There are 1006 PDs still available. Absolutely it is a narrow path for Bernie. But it is a complete lie to say it's "mathematically impossible" for Bernie. Not an opinion, not a perception. A complete, mathematical, provable LIE.

[lumberjack_jeff]

11. I'm not confident that your fourth sentence is true.

There is a good argument to be made that they'll support Clinton, regardless of what's best for the party or what their constituents demand or what the general will of the public is... because they owe Clinton money/a favor and are afraid of the retaliation from the entrenched complacent insiders.

[firebrand80]

16. Think about it

If Bernie had the most PDs and the SDs went against him, 99% of his supporters would abandon the party. This would severely damage the party, not to mention their own political futures. On top of all of that, they would be doing in for a candidate that would now be certain to lose the Presidency in November. It's a lose/lose/lose situation for everyone involved. Yes, they like Hillary, but not that much.

I know many people don't like Hillary, but I don't think even she would want them to do that. What makes me think this? See 2008.

[lumberjack_jeff]

23. 75% in Washington State voted for Sanders. Yet, 100% of elected Democratic SDs support Clinton.

Something more powerful and frightening than the blowback they're getting from the voting public is compelling them to stick with Clinton.

[Melissa G]

12. Also not a Hillary Supporter, but good post!

I always appreciate reasoned discourse even if I have a different POV.

[Tarc]

14. personally, I've never said...or do not recall saying, he was mathematically eliminated

But the math just makes his chances so remote as to be all but indistinguishable from a literal mathematical elimination.

[firebrand80]

17. There have been several posts in the last few days claiming this

I think it was originally taken from some news headline

[The Second Stone]

18. I'm a descriptivist, and while I would generally agree with you

that mathematically eliminated doesn't apply, and probably won't apply if one counts the superdelegates, the superdelegates are 10 to 1 and more in favor of Hillary. There is no probability that Clinton does not have it tied up. It is very firmly tied up for Clinton. How both candidates use this to benefit the party chances in Nov is up to them. Each of them has resisted great temptations to trash the other throughout the campaign. Some supporters (me included) have not had such self restraint.

[Yavin4]

19. It's still mathematically possible for HRC to win the nomination on pledged delegates alone.

It's not mathematically possible for BS to win the nomination on pledged delegates alone.

That's basic math.

[firebrand80]

22. Yes, but she probably won't

Especially since she's half-heartedly competing in the rest of the primaries moving forward (except for maybe CA).

My point is that winning the nomination on PDs alone is not a standard we should hold either candidate to. Once you hold Bernie to that standard, you open yourself up to Hillary being held to that same standard, which helps to legitimize the "open convention" argument.

[moriah]

21. The argument in 2008 was supers should follow pledged delegates...

.... in these situations.