***** The Electoral Map Is Looking Pretty Darn Good For Clinton Right Now*****

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The Cook Political report is out with its new projections of the electoral map for November's presidential election, and it's is looking better and better for Hillary Clinton.

Cook moved 11 states in Dems' direction Thursday and redefined critical swing states Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin from being toss-up to lean Democratic. They also moved two congressional districts that allocate electors. In Nebraska's Second, Cook moved the district from solid Republican to tossup. Maine's Second moved from solid Democratic to likely Democratic.

It's early and all is subject to change as Clinton and Donald Trump pivot from the primaries to the general election. But, according to Cook–which analyzed polls and demographic shifts to project their electoral model–the election is moving in Democrats' direction at the moment. Cook also notes that it may not have always gone Clinton's way. Cook writes that Clinton "is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans." Trump, however, has far greater deficits as he struggles to pick up support from women and Latino voters.

"With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic - enough for a majority," the Cook Political Report team writes.



:large


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/the-electoral-map-is-looking-pretty-darn-good-for-democrats-right-now

[floriduck]

1. I think the article said the word "democrats." So Bernie is happy too.

[floriduck]

2. And why are your swing states of Ohio and North Carolina not blue?

So much for your swing state argument.

[dsc]

12. NC is within the MOE

and we won it in 2008 but lost it in 2012. I hope we win but it will be close no matter what happens.

[mindwalker_i]

3. She's wining!

Just keep spankin' it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. spanking what, pray tell

[GardeningGal]

5. Would like to understand the methodology used - particularly for Colorado.

The reason Colorado is a swing state is due to the number of unaffiliated voters. I have not seen any polls on how those voters feel about the candidates and until I do, I am skeptical about this projection.

The reasons have to do with my observations living here. First, Sanders won the caucus handily and I have not seen any bumper sticker or yard signs for Clinton. Not sure how many of the Sanders voters Clinton can convert, that remains to be seen.

The other issue I see is the unaffiliated, of which I am one but mostly support the democrat on the ballot. I have stated before that I will not vote for Clinton after observing the shenanigans that took place in MA and IL. Don't ask me to get over it, I won't. There is no acceptable excuse for disenfranchising voters and I won't give someone my vote because they are the lesser of two evils. It means you're still voting for an evil. However, I won't vote for Trump either. I simply won't vote on the presidential ballot if it is Clinton who secures the nomination. That also goes Bennett (Senate) or Degette (House) if they stay committed to Clinton for their super delegate vote.

My sister is also an unaffiliated voter and we cannot discuss politics at all, but I am very confident that she will support Trump.

So, this projection is taking A LOT for granted.

[CorkySt.Clair]

11. Maybe you will get your wish

And she will lose in November.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. She wont. Don't worry.

[basselope]

6. LMAO!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. at you

[basselope]

8. I'm not the one running around with a laughable map.

Clinton winning Florida.. LMAO!!!!

How gullible some people are.

[basselope]

9. OMG.. and Nevada.

That's some fun stuff you're smoking.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. She is leading in all the Florida polls

I'm not the one running around with a laughable map.

Clinton winning Florida.. LMAO!!!!

How gullible some people are

-basselope

She is leading in all the Florida polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

I know you and your pals believe Trump will win.


"How gullible some people are."

"LMAO!!!! "

[basselope]

14. Lie much?

Trump is ahead in a couple of those polls AND the average (6 months out) is +5.. hardly a comfortable lead.

What you are failing to understand is Floirda has spent the last 6 years working harder and harder to suppress the democratic vote, which is why Obama squeaked it out in 2012 vs a much more decisive win in 2008.

To overcome that voter suppression Clinton would need OVERWHELMING turnout, which she just ain't gonna get.

Florida is a LOCK for the GOP with Clinton on the ticket.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I am not a liar.

"Lie much."

I am not a liar. I request you peer into your conscience, heed your better angels, and apologize for calling me a liar.


I cited polling aggregate polling and the last poll was completed on April 27 and that poll showed her with a thirteen point lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

[basselope]

19. You lied.

Here is your quote

"She is leading in all the Florida polls"

You didn't equivocate, you didn't qualify it. You said definitively "She is leading in all the Florida polls"

You then provided a link which PROVED your statement to be false. Since 2 of the polls cited in your link have Trump winning Florida.

Since 2 of the 5 polls in your link (and 7 out of 12 if you expand to MORE) have Trump winning, you statement "She is leading in all the Florida polls" is a lie. A willful lie since you are the one who made it AND supplied the link that proved it to be a false statement of fact.

So why don't you peer into your conscience, heed your better angels and apologize for lying.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I did not lie, your obscurantism notwithstanding.

She leads in aggregate polling with the most recent polling showing her with a thirteen point lead.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html


If you want to hang your hat on the fact she isn't literally leading in every poll, of whatever vintage, to call me a liar be my guest.

However you aren't going to call me a liar and not have me respond. I know you and your ilk like to bully people and call then names online but I don't cower in the face of bullies, no way.

[basselope]

32. 5 Pinocchios for you.

You said she was leading in ALL polls. She wasn't. You now want to change what you said. How very "Clintonian" of you.

You lied. You got caught and now refuse to apologize.

Typical.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. I didn't lie and I would literally rather die than apologize for something I didn't do.

I don't cower in the face of bullies. IRL, I hand them their heads, not literally, of course.

[basselope]

45. You lied. You got caught. Deal with it.

Here is your quote

"She is leading in all the Florida polls"

You didn't equivocate, you didn't qualify it. You said definitively "She is leading in all the Florida polls"

You then provided a link which PROVED your statement to be false. Since 2 of the polls cited in your link have Drumpf winning Florida.

Since 2 of the 5 polls in your link (and 7 out of 12 if you expand to MORE) have Drumpf winning, you statement "She is leading in all the Florida polls" is a lie. A willful lie since you are the one who made it AND supplied the link that proved it to be a false statement of fact.

So why don't you peer into your conscience, heed your better angels and apologize for lying.

[dsc]

13. we won Florida 4 of the last 6 elections

if you count Gore as a win, 3 if you don't. Trump is hated by Hispanics, who make up a rather large portion of Florida, with the passion of a thousand suns. So yes, she is leading in Florida and will quite likely win it.

[basselope]

15. She has 0 chance in Florida.

What you are failing to understand is Floirda has spent the last 6 years working harder and harder to suppress the democratic vote, which is why Obama squeaked it out in 2012 vs a much more decisive win in 2008.

To overcome that voter suppression Clinton would need OVERWHELMING turnout, which she just ain't gonna get.

Florida is a LOCK for the GOP.

[dsc]

22. I actually looked it up

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/

In 2012 Obama won Florida with 50% of the vote, in 2008 he won it with 51% of the vote, a drop of 1% (about 50 k votes fewer for him in 2012 vs 2008). His national totals fell from 53% to 50.6% (I think it wound up at 51% when all was said and done but this site says differently). Using the 51% yields a 2% drop or double that of Florida. In short, he lost a smaller (half) percentage of voters in Florida than he did nationwide. In other words your theory is just plain wrong.

[LuvLoogie]

28. We need to just quit it with the math already...

We should just dispense with the scalar-vector implications of denial versus reality...

[basselope]

31. Wrong.

What you are failing to understand is that any further drop in Florida means he LOSES it.

Which is why Clinton is destined to lose it, because she doesn't have the ability to get ALL Obama voters and she certainly isn't bringing in any new ones.

[dsc]

60. that isn't what you said

but let me address that. Hispanic turn out is certain to be better us in 2016 than it was in 2012. Obama hadn't really done much for Hispanics by the time his reelection rolled around and Romney isn't nearly as bad as Trump. I admit, that he will likely have gotten more black voters to the polls than she will (or any candidate that isn't Obama would) but she will do better among Hispanics than he did.

[lancer78]

63. Do you believe

the White vote percentage will go UP in this election after it has been dropping for 30 years? Whites now only constitute 54% of Florida's population.

[Loudestlib]

36. Do you think Clinton would have the same level of turnout as Obama?

[dsc]

59. overall I suspect yes

I think Obama will end up having had more blacks turn out for him but she will have more Hispanics turn out for her (in no small part due to Obama's second term being vastly better for Hispanics than his first term was).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The poster has spoken. We mere plebeians are supposed to take his word as dispositive.

Where do these people get their sense of entitlement?

If it were up to some of them elections would be suspended, their candidate would be installed leader for life, and succession would be based on the laws of primogeniture.

[basselope]

21. From facts and history

Instead of wishful thinking like you seem to get yours.

[dsc]

23. your facts aren't facts

you need to look at my response. He lost a smaller percentage of votes in Florida than he did nationwide.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Larry Sabato also has FL in the Clinton column

Who is Larry Sabato:

Dr. Larry J. Sabato is the founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He is also the University Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and has had visiting appointments at Oxford University and Cambridge University in Great Britain. A Rhodes Scholar, he received his doctorate from Oxford, and he is the author or editor of two dozen books on American politics.

Prof. Sabato directs the Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball website, a leader in accurately predicting elections since its inception. In 2004, the Crystal Ball notched a 99 percent accuracy rate in predicting all races for House, Senate, Governor and each state’s Electoral College outcome. In 2006, the Pew Research Center and the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Project for Excellence in Journalism recognized the Crystal Ball as the leader in the field of political predictors, noting that the site “came closer than any other of the top ten potential predictors this cycle.”
In 2008, the Crystal Ball came within one electoral vote of the exact tally in the Electoral College, while also correctly picking the result of every single gubernatorial and Senate race across the country. In 2010, the Crystal Ball was the first to forecast a solid Republican takeover of the House. While others were predicting a Romney victory in 2012, the Crystal Ball forecast a substantial Obama margin in the Electoral College, and ultimately missed just two states. The Crystal Ball had a combined 97% accuracy rate in forecasting the Electoral College, Senate, House and gubernatorial contests.
Earlier this year, the Crystal Ball won a “Beast Best” award from The Daily Beast as one of the top political sites on the web.
In 2013 Prof. Sabato won an Emmy award for the television documentary Out of Order, which he produced to highlight the dysfunctional U.S. Senate. In 2014, Prof. Sabato won a second Emmy award for the PBS documentary The Kennedy Half-Century, which covers the life, assassination, and lasting legacy of President John F. Kennedy.
In October 2013, Prof. Sabato and the Center for Politics unveiled the Kennedy Half Century project. The project consisted of a New York Times bestselling book, The Kennedy Half-Century PBS documentary, a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) available on Coursera and iTunes U, an app with the complete recordings and transcripts from Dealey Plaza on 11/22/63, and a website (www.thekennedyhalfcentury.com).
Prof. Sabato is also very active on social media. His Twitter feed (@LarrySabato) was named by Time Magazine as one of the 140 best Twitter feeds of 2014.

You can scour the net. Every credible model by a political scientist or statistician has FL in the Clinton column.

[basselope]

34. When you consider "credible" most consider laughable.

Your opinion ceases to matter though after you were caught lying.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. You didn't catch me in anything.

Your opinion ceases to matter though after you were caught lying.

I didn't lie. Just be thankful you are calling me names in a moderated forum.

[basselope]

43. You lied, you got caught. Deal with it.

Here is your quote

"She is leading in all the Florida polls"

You didn't equivocate, you didn't qualify it. You said definitively "She is leading in all the Florida polls"

You then provided a link which PROVED your statement to be false. Since 2 of the polls cited in your link have Drumpf winning Florida.

Since 2 of the 5 polls in your link (and 7 out of 12 if you expand to MORE) have Drumpf winning, you statement "She is leading in all the Florida polls" is a lie. A willful lie since you are the one who made it AND supplied the link that proved it to be a false statement of fact.

So why don't you peer into your conscience, heed your better angels and apologize for lying.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. I was referring to aggregate polling.

You lied, you got caught. Deal with it.

Make me, and no I didn't. I was referring to aggregate polling.

[basselope]

47. You lied, you got caught. Deal with it.

Here is your quote

"She is leading in all the Florida polls"

NOTHING about that says "AGGREGATE POLLING".

You didn't equivocate, you didn't qualify it. You said definitively "She is leading in all the Florida polls" Not leading in AGGREGATE polling, you said "ALL FLORIDA POLLS" That means, in English, each and every Florida poll.

You then provided a link which PROVED your statement to be false. Since 2 of the polls cited in your link have Drumpf winning Florida.

Since 2 of the 5 polls in your link (and 7 out of 12 if you expand to MORE) have Drumpf winning, you statement "She is leading in all the Florida polls" is a lie. A willful lie since you are the one who made it AND supplied the link that proved it to be a false statement of fact.

Just admit you lied. It's easy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. No. I didn't.

You lied, you got caught. Deal with it.

Make me, and no I didn't.

I live in Woodland Hills. I can walk to the 101. I would rather walk in it during rush hour than apologize for something I didn't do..

Stopping bullies online and offline is my raison d'etre

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. You are not going to bully DSB. It's just not happening.

[riversedge]

55. No need to call other DU members liars when they are having a conversation. Shame on you.

[stevenleser]

61. No, a jury of DUers found your posts and repeated nasty comments unacceptable. Deal with it. nt

[basselope]

33. Doesn't change the facts.

She has 0 chance of winning Florida.

[Garrett78]

35. I love it.

You post what you suggest are facts. It's pointed out to you that what you call facts aren't actually factual. Your response is, "Doesn't change the facts."

Classic.

[basselope]

37. You didn't dispute the facts.

You ignored the actual facts, of the results of GOP voter suppression and instead deflected to %'s, which weren't part of the equation.

Yes, Classic... you failed.

[Garrett78]

38. No, dsc did.

I wasn't even part of your back-and-forth. Your claim about Obama's Florida win in '08 vs. his Florida win in '12 was obliterated with data by dsc.

[basselope]

42. No, it wasn't.

Obama squeaked out a victory in Florida in 2012.

Those facts are not in dispute.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

58. So annoying. Why call someone a liar too? It's obviously just a disagreement.

You came very close to having another post hidden btw.

[AgadorSparticus]

62. "Your facts aren't facts"<--- 😂 I have never seen anyone just completely ignore data

Last edited Fri May 6, 2016, 04:15 AM - Edit history (1)

Like that. You were clearly dealing with someone who was not interested in discourse. They had an agenda to push and that was it. 😨

Edit: sorry, I don't mean to pull the bandaid off a sore spot here. Carry on....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Your response makes no sense but why break the pattern?

[lovemydog]

49. But he uses LOTS of CAPITAL letters!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. He is very hostile. I am glad for him his hostility is confined to the internet.

Being hostile in real life is fraught with danger.

[lovemydog]

52. Indeed my friend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. Very sad. I am glad his hostility is confined to the internet.

As abusive as he is to me I would hate to see anybody get hurt.

[riversedge]

56. see this......

Calling other DU members a liar for trying to have a discussion is beyond rude. Glad the jury agreed. Take care.

Automated Message
AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your alert

Mail Message
On Thu May 5, 2016, 04:52 PM you sent an alert on the following post:

You lied. You got caught. Deal with it.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1907928

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

YOUR COMMENTS

There is so need to tell another DU member --they 'lied' when that person is just trying to have a discussion. This is beyond rude and should be hidden. Thank you.

JURY RESULTS

A randomly-selected Jury of DU members completed their review of this alert at Thu May 5, 2016, 04:58 PM, and voted 4-3 to HIDE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Calling a DUer a liar? Not on my watch!
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: direct attack.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Oy. Not hide worthy.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given

Thank you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. He is sending me hostile private messages now because he is locked out of the thread.

[www.ciafront.com]

20. I think the data suggest anyone BUT Trump would prevail.

That said, if you REALLY don't want to take a chance on a President Trump, consider these data:

Sanders vs Trump:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

Clinton vs Trump:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[mcar]

24. It really is

[Beacool]

27. For the sake of the country I hope so.

A Trump presidency would be a disaster.

[Warren DeMontague]

29. Boy, I hope she can carry Colorado.

Maybe make sure DWS doesnt go to the times and demand wholesale incarceration of marijuana-using cancer grannies again.

[pat_k]

39. Beware of overconfidence.

If people believe Trump has no shot, they are less motivated to get out and vote to stop him.

With the poor performance of various analytical models this year, I don't put much faith in the shifts from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.

[hellofromreddit]

44. Just look at all these eggs. What marvelous chickens they are!