Princeton Consortium-Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 92%, Bayesian Prediction 98%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://election.princeton.edu/

Professor Wang called Bush/Kerry to within 1 EV of the outcome; Obama/McCain exactly. They basically just aggregate the state polls with nonparametric statistics and plot out the EV probabilities.

[amuse bouche]

1. Ooh

I like that a lot

[bamacrat]

2. Every time I do the CNN Electoral map I come up with the same as them:

O - 303
R - 235

[Robbins]

3. Electoral vote

I still think there Is chance of getting 300 Electoral votes.If Obama wins all non southern battlegrounds and picks up 1 of 3
southern battlegrounds(Most lIkely Virginia) he could do It.Although I don't rule out possibility of Obama prevailing In all the swing states
and Romney wins Mccain States+Indiana

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. Promising

[courseofhistory]

5. I run the EV Simulation Map 100 times

every day and consistently come up with between 90-95% for Obama. Average EV for Obama is 302.

http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

It is a fun distraction and uplifting as well as seeming to be in line with most predictions.