A possible outcome no one is talking about in the GE

[Exilednight]

Now that Trump is the Republican nominee, there is a possible outcome that may happen. The libertarian candidate is currently polling at 11%, and if he hits 15% he will be allowed in the debates.

If he manages to steal a state or two, and keeps both Hillary and Trump from reaching 270 delegates, it then throws the race into the HoR, which is, and considering Hillary has no coattails, will be again, controlled by the Republican Party.

Leave it to the establishment to still find a way to fuck this up.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

1. Also, aliens could attack on Election Day, only blue states....

"the libertarian candidate"

That's his/her name? Couldn't be bothered to find this game changer out for us?

[Exilednight]

3. according to polling, he's pulling votes from both candidates

Which could be trouble in a state like FL.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

8. Does "he" have a name yet?

I'm supposed to fear someone who you can't even be bothered to name.....

[Fawke Em]

27. Gary Johnson.

You follow politics and didn't know that?

https://garyjohnson2016.com/

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

43. I figured it was Gary Johnson and LOL to him anyway

Yet the OP couldn't be bothered to name this guy who's going to upset the balance of the election.

Also, he hasn't been named the nominee yet officially. They haven't had their convention yet. God knows how those assholes pick 'em. Probably which ever one acts like he cares the least about everyone. Fuck them.

[libdem4life]

55. Careful with that last couple of sentences. Well, the whole last

paragraph. Just sayin'

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

57. The libertarians have four primaries

I think you have to live in either Missouri, NC, or Minnesota to take part. Don't even know what the other state is.

Yeah, I think we have a better system.

[moriah]

20. If Bernie voters actually read the Libertarian platform, they wouldn't vote for any of them.

Libertarian = wants government to be as small as an IUD.

[Fawke Em]

29. Bernie voters are writing him in, in states where its allowed and voting Green in

states where it's not allowed.

Gary Johnson will probably be the recipient of disgruntled Republican voters.

[RufusTFirefly]

40. Politically naive progressives are sometimes attracted to Libertarians

The fact that Libertarians frequently oppose foreign military intervention and support legalization of marijuana distracts them from the fact that these guys also want to dismantle most of what we depend on from government.

[moriah]

17. Most likely it'd be Gary Johnson.

My issue with him is that he fights against health care reform totally, and other safety net programs, and will cave to the rest of the Libertarians regarding his prior "in line with Roe v Wade" abortion stance. Aka, he's a Libertarian.

In that, I think he would pull people away from Trump, not Clinton.

[LexVegas]

2. Don't lose mad...just lose. nt

[FSogol]

4. What state could a loser libertarian actually win?

[Exilednight]

6. Florida or Ohio.

[FSogol]

10. Dream on. That's laughable.

[Exilednight]

22. as laughable as Gore losing to Bush in Florida?

Jeb lost the nomination, but still has friends in FL and he has his eye on 2020.

[morningfog]

24. Gore didn't lose to Bush in FL.

And it is far more laughable than that, which didn't happen.

[Human101948]

42. Who ended up in the White House for 8 years?

Stamping your feet won't make that go away.

[scscholar]

47. But facts are facts

And if they aren't facts then they aren't facts.

[morningfog]

52. Oh dear.

First, Gore won Florida. He received more votes. The SoS stopped the recount and the stacked Supreme Court assisted Bush in stealing Florida.

Second, that history has no fucking relevance for the poster's absurd theory that a Libertarian could take FL in a three-way contest with Hillary and Trump.

It and this thread is just asinine fantasy land nonsense.

[Agschmid]

45. Yup.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Please link to aggregate polling where the Libertarian candidate is polling at 11%

Thank you in advance.

The largest share of the vote the Libertarian candidate for president has ever garnered is approximately 1%.

[firebrand80]

11. It was one Monmouth poll nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. One Monmouth poll, okay. That's not dispositive. I would like to see that one though.

[Exilednight]

15. from CNN

http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2016/03/26/libertarian-candidate-gains-in-polls-gary-johnson.cnn

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. One isolated poll.

If you conducted a poll between Clinton, Trump and Deez Nuts, Deez Nuts would get votes just because Deez Nuts is the "third person in the poll." Even Gary Johnson says so in the video you asked me to watch.

[drm604]

7. A libertarian candidate would take votes mostly from the Republican.

A Green candidate would take votes from the Democrat.

I don't think that it's likely that either scenario would have a meaningful effect.

[Exilednight]

18. polling shows he's taking from both. social liberals mostly with

Fiscal conservative ideas, such as retired people.

[drm604]

26. Who is "he"?

Do you mean the Libertarian candidate? I don't doubt that he has some supporters. The question is how many. I doubt that it's enough to make a difference, especially on the Democratic side.

[firebrand80]

9. He would likely pull more Dem voters with Bernie as the nominee

because Bernie is so far to the left.

Why do you think Bloomberg was considering jumping in when Hillary was looking shaky?

[ChisolmTrailDem]

25. Bernie isn't "so far to the left". He's right where the Democratic Party should be but which...

...instead has left a void and a vacuum. The Democratic Party has moved so far to the right that it is nigh unrecognizable. The Democratic Party has left Democrats behind and the proof is the republican support that is flooding into Hillary's camp.

[yellowcanine]

12. "If he manages to steal a state or two"

1) It would take more than a "state or two"
2) Most of the Libertarian votes are going to come out of Trump's hide, meaning the more likely outcome here is that Hillary would "steal a state or two."

[LonePirate]

13. The libertarian is not polling anywhere near 11%.

Even if a single poll showed that, the poll is beyond flawed.

[Tarc]

16. Gary Johnson? He'll pull votes away from Trump, not Hillary

Opposes any form of universal health care, pro-coal plants, opposes public-sector unions, wants to leave abortion laws to the states, and so on...

The original Tea Party candidate, indeed.

[Exilednight]

19. you mean States like Ohio.

[beachbumbob]

23. More than likely any state a libertarian would impact is a red state..

Hillarys coat tails will bring congress back to democrats something the far leftists don't want to talk about

[Fawke Em]

32. What coattails?

Hard to have coattails when your negatives are nearly 60 percent.

[beachbumbob]

37. That is now by limited polling ..in November purple states are in play....

Marginal GOP congressional districts as well as senate races all know they are screwed...Hillary will have overwhelming female, black, Hispanic support....on historic levels in spite of what the ultra leftists want to believe

[HooptieWagon]

44. The only turnout Hillary inspires is the Republicans.

And no matter their POTUS choice, they'll vote solid GOP down ticket.

[TransitJohn]

59. LOL

Hillary being POTUS guarantees 6 or 8 years of Republican control of both houses of Congress.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. There is only one person who can cause Hillary to lose in November...

There is only one person who can cause Hillary to lose in November and that is Bernie Sanders, and at the end of the day, I have too much respect for him to believe he would do that. I respect him enough to take him at his word.

[Fawke Em]

33. He'll still be indirectly responsible.

His supporters aren't moving to her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Some of his supporters aren't.

We will just have to win without some of his supporters and we will.

President Hillary Clinton

Learn it...

Know it...

Live it...

[Warren Stupidity]

30. Splits Trumpf vote. Hands Clinton landslide.

[berni_mccoy]

31. In recent polls the libertarian candidate is taking more votes from Hillary

Than trump.

[Renew Deal]

36. Link?

[SheilaT]

34. So far as I can determine with a quick Google search

the Libertarians have not yet selected their nominee for President.

It may well be Gary Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, the state I live in.

I've seen it expressed somewhere (maybe here on DU, maybe elsewhere, can't recall) that he could carry this state in the GE. That's fall down on the floor laughing, it's so improbable. I did only move here in 2008, and Johnson was Governor for two terms, 1995-2003. I don't get the impression that people here even remember him very well, let alone with the sort of fondness or enthusiasm that would have even a simple plurality of the voters turn out for him in November.

It's equally unimaginable that the Libertarian candidate, whoever he or she turns out to be, would win any state in the GE.

More likely, so many voters will be so totally disgusted by Donald and Hillary (and personally I'm still hoping Bernie gets the nomination) that millions upon millions will say, "A pox on both your houses" and stay home. We'll see the lowest voter turnout since the election of 1864. But not so low that any third party candidate will win even one state.

[Renew Deal]

35. Good point, but I think he only needs 5% to get into debates

Right now that would be Gary Johnson, but it could change.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. 15% is the threshold.

[HooptieWagon]

46. I don't see either Libertarians or Greens getting to 15%,...

...although both should get the highest % they ever have.
GOP is still making noise about backing a 'true conservative' third party candidate, like a Mitt Romney. They could probably get into the 15-20% range.
IIRC Ross Perot got 19% of popular vote. I don't recall that he got any electoral votes. I doubt a third party can get enough EVs to throw the election into the House....it would take 50-100 EVs imo.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. Romney would be a dream third party candidate for Democrats who want to see Clinton win.

It gives traditional Republicans who don't like either Clinton or Trump a place to go. Romney can be our Theodore Roosevelt who pilfered enough votes from the Republicans to elect Woodrow Wilson.

Perot didn't win any Electoral College votes...

That being said, at the end of the day most third party challenges fall apart. For every TR, Perot, George Wallace, and to a lesser extent John Anderson, most third party candidacies fall apart. Folks want to vote for someone they think has a shot.

[HooptieWagon]

54. Of the third party candidates you've mentioned,...

None were running against R and D candidates with historically high unfavorable ratings. It would be difficult to predict outcome, imo. I don't think the third party could win, but may flip a state here and there and only need to win a few to toss the election into the House. Remember that some of Clinton's support is reluctant establishment Rs disgusted with Trump. They'd vote for a Romneyesque candidate in a heartbeat, along with a number of indies disgusted with both Trump and Clinton.

[karynnj]

41. Look at the states that Democrats generally win and the set of states

where one or a few is needed. I don't think any "Democratic" where HRC doesn't get the plurality - all that is needed to get the electoral votes in most states. There is a pretty big set of additional states, and it is hard to predict that HRC does not win enough of them added to the Democratic ones.

In fact, he hurts Trump - as it is harder to say that he could not lose any normally Republican state. One strange example would be Utah. I can see Utah rejecting both HRC and Trump and picking the libertarian, if it is Johnson.

I think that many of the George Will/Bush etc Republicans could migrate to Johnson. However, remember the primaries - there were not a lot of votes even when summed over all the sane candidates. It is bigger than the Joe Lieberman wing of the Democratic party was in 2004, but it is very possible that the followers have left their leaders for the new leader ... Trump.

[Exilednight]

61. Florida or Ohio are the 2 States I could see a libertarian winning. especially Florida

Since it is the home of Rubio and Bush, and less we forget what happened to Gore in FL.

Republican controlled swing States could make this a very realistic outcome.

If Republic can establishment can't win with the nominee they wanted, why not find another way by focusing on two or three swing states and throw it to the House?

[w4rma]

48. Note that the Republican House of Representatives won't select the Libertarian or the 'Democrat'.

They'll select a non-Trump Republican, although they might select Trump if he gives the neoconservatives what they want.

[CobaltBlue]

49. Exilednight—I've seen fantasies of a 1860-style election.…

A problem with this is that the media co-conspires to make sure this does not happen.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

51. NO coattails?

[whatthehey]

53. Because it's "possible" only in the sense that a Kardashian earned PhD is possible

Even if you are sanguine about Dem chances, you'd have to imagine Libertarians earning actual EC votes. 11%? Let's double that in every state and they still get zero EVs, they just reduce the vote totals of the winning (and losing) party.

[Trust Buster]

56. Those in denial of Sanders loss know no bounds when it comes to their desperation.

[Blue_Tires]

58. It's also theoretically possible for me to flap my arms and fly to the moon...

[hamsterjill]

60. This is a very real Republican strategy.

I'm not pretending to know HOW the Republican elite can pull this off, but I do know that they are not happy with Trump as the nominee. If they can get another candidate in there somehow to keep either Hillary or Trump from reaching the majority in the electoral college, and throw the election to the House, they will try it, I can guarantee you.

I don't trust Republicans to go by the rules, and I don't ever say "never" where they are concerned. They lie. They cheat, and they will do anything for their own self interest.