2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCompelling evidence suggests the Democratic Primaries are rigged... against Hillary Clinton.
The conventional wisdom regarding the 2016 Democratic primary seems suggest that the system has been hopelessly rigged in favor of Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders himself has repeatedly encouraged this viewpoint, arguing that the DNC has been unfair to his campaign by holding closed primaries, scheduling weekend debates, punishing him for improperly accessing Clinton campaign data, and by involving superdelegates in the nomination process. Just the other day his campaign complained that the Democratic National Convention drafting committee wont include an equal number of representatives from each campaign (side note: why on earth should the losing and winning campaigns have an equal say in the partys platform?)
In reality, the Democratic nomination process has favored Sanders from day one, as the Sanders campaign took advantage of low-turnout caucuses to inflate his pledged delegate total relative to his share of the actual popular vote. Indeed, Bernie Sanders currently holds 45.47% of the pledged delegates awarded so far despite winning only 42.26% of the popular vote. In contrast Hillary Clinton holds 54.53% of the pledged delegates despite winning 56.19% of the popular vote.
Sanders has benefited from this discrepancy because caucuses allow very few voters to award a large number of pledged delegates. Lets take a look at how each state voted. Specifically, lets look at how many voters are represented by a single pledged delegate in each state. Please note that I am estimating the turnout in a number of the caucus states which didn't report vote counts. There are numerous estimates of turnout in these states, and I always used the largest estimate AND rounded up in an attempt to be fair to Sanders (with the exception of Iowa where Clinton won and I used the lowest estimate I could find). I cant find any turnout info. for Nevada.
Read more: http://www.dailykos.com/stories/1524415
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)immoderate
(20,885 posts)--imm
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)switched their parties. Not sure how they figured all that out and got into the voter files, but that's what folks have been saying.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Sanders has gotten quite a few advantages out of the caucus system.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Perogie
(687 posts)You make it sound like 100% of the people voted in ballot primaries.
Less than 20% turnout in NY. I would say Hillary took advantage of the low voter turn out especially since there is evidence of voter suppression.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/04/new-york-primary-voter-purge
You can twist whatever you want into a pretzel to fit your narrative, but that doesn't make it the truth.
Voter turnout 2016 Primary
http://www.electproject.org/2016P
Caucuses are just like ballot elections. They are based on voter turnout. Those that show up get to vote.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Hillary won 17 of 21 states with the highest voter turnout.
Perogie
(687 posts)ThePhilosopher04
(1,732 posts)silvershadow
(10,336 posts)with Debbie-gate (the collusion between the DLC and HRC campaign) precede her. (I say DLC because it would appear we have no functioning DNC at the moment).
TheFarseer
(9,319 posts)Bernies vote totals are depressed because states like Nebraska that he mopped the floor in had caucuses. If they had a primary, he would have gotten about the same percentage of a larger vote total, thus pumping up his total votes.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Delegates are.
Sanders has benefited from this discrepancy because caucuses allow very few voters to award a large number of pledged delegates.