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onehandle

(51,122 posts)
Tue May 10, 2016, 12:57 PM May 2016

General election polls before and during the primary are predictive of absolutely nothing.

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls

Additionally, Unicorns are not real.
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General election polls before and during the primary are predictive of absolutely nothing. (Original Post) onehandle May 2016 OP
You posted a very good link that shows that very thing. tonyt53 May 2016 #1
So, how's Hillary doing against Trump today? TheCowsCameHome May 2016 #2
Those polls are excellent at predicting! You just are not reading them correctly: Buzz Clik May 2016 #3
The same people who "support" Bernie at rallies (but WON'T BOTHER TO VOTE) are the same ones ... NurseJackie May 2016 #4
 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
3. Those polls are excellent at predicting! You just are not reading them correctly:
Tue May 10, 2016, 01:05 PM
May 2016
Option 1: The polls predict Hillary will lose to Donald Drumpf or beat Drumpf by a smaller margin than Bernie.
Correct Outcome: The Sanders crowd will wave these polls like red-blooded patriots on the Fourth of July, cheering and shouting.

Option 1: The polls predict any outcome that favors Hillary over Sanders.
Correct Outcome: The Sanders crowd will discount the poll as fraudulent.

You just have to know how to read these polls.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
4. The same people who "support" Bernie at rallies (but WON'T BOTHER TO VOTE) are the same ones ...
Tue May 10, 2016, 01:56 PM
May 2016

... who "support" him in a hypothetical match-up against Trump, but who WON'T BOTHER TO VOTE.

They will take surveys, and click online polls, but they JUST DON'T VOTE.

They'll put out yard signs, and affix bumper stickers, but THEY DON'T LIKE VOTING. Or maybe, for vanity purposes, they put more value on declaring themselves "Independent" than actually being able to participate in the party's nomination process.

I look at it like this: If Bernie can't defeat Hillary during the primaries, then he couldn't defeat Trump in the general election. If his "supporters" won't make the effort to vote for him during the party's primary, then they won't make the effort to go vote in the general.

We have our nominee, and it's Hillary.

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