Why do 40% of Sanders voters support Trump? Brookings' Bill Galston and other policy gurus explain

[ProgressiveEconomist]

IMO SBS is getting a lot of votes from Hillary-hating Trump supporters who don't want to wait until November to vote against her. It's way past time for SBS to stop helping The Donald and return to work as a VT Senator.

The following analysis from the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. buttresses this view.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/trump-sanders-similarities-1.3506257

'U.S. candidate comparison: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have more in common than you might think


Meagan Fitzpatrick · Reporter · CBC NewsMarch 26, 2016

Similarities between Trump and Sanders go far beyond their New York roots and noteworthy hait ... they haven't gone unnoticed by media and political pundits in this unpredictable, sometimes bizarre U.S. election season.

Trump acknowledged he and Sanders do agree on one thing: the U.S. is being ripped off when it comes to trade.Their opposition to trade deals is indeed a policy area where Trump and Sanders are aligned. They even use the same word — "disaster" — to describe the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

"Neither of them appears ever to have met a trade agreement that he didn't dislike," said William Galston, a former policy adviser to Bill Clinton and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

On another policy front, they both talk about how they opposed the Iraq War, using that fact against their opponents in an "I told you so" manner. Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Trump and Sanders both tap into an "America First" feeling in the electorate when it comes to foreign policy. "They wouldn't want to call themselves isolationist, but that's effectively what they are," he said.

Trump and Sanders are also on the same page when it comes to money and politics. They both rail against the influence of big donors and lobbyists on Capitol Hill, saying they are not beholden to those interests.In their campaigns, they eschew super PACs and boast of how they don't rely on them. In Trump's case, he says he's self-funding his campaign, while Sanders is raking in small donations from millions of Americans...."

MUCH MORE AT LINK

[silvershadow]

1. Reason number 1,000 we need to elect him. nt

[ProgressiveEconomist]

3. If somehow SBS got the nom,

and high proportions of Sanders primary voters really prefer Trump, wouldn't Democrats lose virtually every State in November?

[silvershadow]

4. They don't prefer Trump. Your premise is flawed. They prefer Bernie. Trump is the second choice

for that segment of voters we are talking about.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

7. What's your evidence?

[silvershadow]

9. You first. What is yours? nt

[ProgressiveEconomist]

12. Exit polls

[silvershadow]

13. They've already done exit polls for the general? wow. nt

[ProgressiveEconomist]

15. LINK to thehill.com

Last edited Tue May 10, 2016, 10:04 PM - Edit history (1)

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote

Nearly half of WV Sanders primary voters said they're going to vote for Trump in the fall.

[silvershadow]

16. Thank you nt

[TwilightZone]

19. That link indicates that half would vote for Trump, not Sanders.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

23. You're right. I need a

map after I edit to reflect what I meant.

Thank you.

[TwilightZone]

25. I figured it was just a typo.

I knew what you meant. haha

[ProgressiveEconomist]

27. "map" instead of "nap"

is a typo. What you caught was something more serious--brought on by trying to make sure I got tired enough to avoid another night of insomnia.

[LeftRant]

40. I think *I* need a map to figure out what's going on :p

[thesquanderer]

26. You still have a misleading OP headline, since that figure is only known to apply to one state.

Still, I will grant you that some Sanders voters will choose Trump over Hillary in November. I would suggest that these are generally people who are not Democrats to begin with. Hillary primarily appeals to Dems. Bernie appeals to a block of Dems and a block of indies. The latter group in particular cannot be counted on to support Hillary in November... many of them would never have considered her to begin with. They are part of the reason that Bernie polls better in GE matchups.

I'd also suggest that today's West Va results may exaggerate this. Since Trump is a shoe-in, indies may have been more likely to vote in the Dem primary than in the uncontested Repub primary.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

30. I agree fully with just about

everything you said.

Except six-month out GE comparisons against Trump of HRC versus unvetted SBS are completely worthless.

[thesquanderer]

34. & CNN just said that 10% of people who voted for Clinton in WV intend to vote for Trump in November!

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. So now they put a number to

the clone of the elderly woman who will vote here for HRC in the primary, but for trump in November. 10 percent. not surprising. I actually expect it to be a tad higher.

[thesquanderer]

43. I agree that you can't assume that six-month out GE polls are accurate.

They cannot really tell you what people will be thinking 6 months from now. But they do indicate what people are thinking today, and so I think these polls do reflect the fact that there are a good chunk of independents currently supporting Bernie who have a hard time envisioning themselves voting for Hillary. That's really the connection I was making. It was not a comment on how reliable such predictions might be.

Related to that, though, if you're going to dismiss the "Sanders beats Trump more handily" polls as being unreliable because they are six months away, you pretty much have to dismiss the "40% of Sanders voters in WV are going to vote for Trump" poll for the same reason. In the end, neither is a terribly reliable prediction, though both do give you some indication of how people are thinking.

As an aside, while the 6-month out polls are inherently unreliable, given the choice, I'd rather be the candidate ahead in them than the candidate behind!

[ProgressiveEconomist]

18. LINK to very clear

Washington Post report that 40 percent of WV Sanders primary voters would prefer Trump over Sanders in November

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/

[silvershadow]

20. The Washington Post really isn't what it used to be, sadly. Her image is certainly

tarnished after the way they have handled this primary. All the way through. I really don't take much stock in 1. The Washington Post 2. Polls 3. Particularly, polls about a hypothetical General, while we are in the middle of a very real Primary.

Finally, a week is an eternity in politics.

[djean111]

2. You think all of those people will pivot to Hillary if she is the nominee?

Ponies, rainbows, and unicorns....and wishful thinking.

Oh, and the trade deals do suck jobs out of the US, and the Iraq War WAS bad, and big money in elections IS bad.

Those are ISSUES, not some (changeable) stances only arrived at because of focus groups, advisers, and pandering for votes.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

6. So you advocate allowing

a Trump faction to take over the Democratic Party? IMO, that would be political hari-kari.

[djean111]

8. The Democratic Party is committing political hara-kiri by running a candidate

who is for war and fracking and the Third Way and means-testing Social Security instead of raising the cap and is against single payer and has an astoundingly massive untrustworthy rating.

[silvershadow]

22. There is NO Trump faction to take over the Democratic Party. What gives you that idea?

Not all Sanders voters are party members. This has been explained over and over throughout this primary, particularly poignantly when the Trump fever hit- about the time the wheels fell off the bus, around the first of the year...

[ProgressiveEconomist]

10. Those aren't issues--

they're false accusations to appeal to Hillary haters.

[bklyncowgirl]

24. Wait a minute--trade isn't an issue? Social Security isn't an issue? What planet are you living on

Money in politics isn't an issue either apparently. Sorry but no. These are issues, my friend, not cudgels to bash Hillary with even if she's on the wrong side of some of them and Trump (yuck) is on the right side.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

31. Accusing HRC of holding

variously positions NOW is easy. Demonstrating that she actually holds those positions NOW is much harder. For example, her having believed Colin Powell about Iraq WMD over a decade ago, for which she has apologized, does not make her a future warmonger.

[bklyncowgirl]

35. Judgment is still judgment. Integrity is still integrity.

I don't care who you are. If you voted for the Iraq war that's a big black mark on my book. Mind you, if As seems likely, she is the Democratic nominee I'll clamp my fingers to my nose and vote for her over Trump.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

41. Distorting HRC's long-ago

and renounced Iraq war vote into future war-ginning, and distorting her failure to disarm unilaterally on political fundraising both are accusations Trump has picked up after SBS pounded away at them for a full year. Can't you see the unnecessary damage Bernie has caused Democratic hopes to keep the WH and take back the Senate? IMO his biggest accomplishment has been to enable and fuel Trump, and he needs to turn off his smear machine now.

[bklyncowgirl]

42. I have to disagree. It is not a "smear" to say that Clinton supported the war in Iraq.

It is true that she later said it was a mistake but clearly when she makes a mistake, she errs on the side of hawkishness and was at odds with the more cautious Obama on Libya, Syria, etc. This is all well known, not something Sanders dreamed up and Trump glommed on to.

[Blue Meany]

5. He may be getting some votes from Trump supporters now that Trump has the nomination,

but I doubt that he got any significant number before now. My guess is that Hillary has been getting a lot more Republican votes then Bernie, since she has been actively courting Republican donors and voters for some time and her positions are much closer to theirs than Bernie's. Perhaps she should drop out rather than use Republican votes and funds to get the Democratic nomination.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

11. At least you're not trying to deny

that SBS is echoing Trump on the economy, tearing down President Obama's unprecedented reversal of the Great Recession.

[Trenzalore]

14. This is why you have closed primaries

I expect a lot of republicans to vote for Sanders now that the republican race is wrapped up.

[pat_k]

17. And 28% of Hillary voters in 2008 said they'd vote McCain (Gallup)

Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/mccain-vs-obama-28-clinton-backers-mccain.aspx

[AgingAmerican]

21. Because they dont

More cognitive dissonance from Hilary supporters and their inability to come to terms with reality.

[HooptieWagon]

28. Surprise, surprise.

Article never mentions any 40% or any facts at all...just a lot of speculation and opinion. A perfect fact-free resource for Hillarians!

[ProgressiveEconomist]

32. See WP article at LINK

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/

[TexasMommaWithAHat]

29. Why? Because they are angry at the establishment

and will happily raise the middle finger to the DNC when they vote for Trump. And I believe the opposite will happen, as well. In fact, I know it will.

People are pissed.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

36. What is "the opposite?"

You may be making exactly the same point as part of the CBC link I didn't include in the OP. Sanders and Trump appeal to many of the same emotions as well as misunderstandings about the economy, the realities of our current political system, and the remarkable accomplishments of the first African-American President.

[TexasMommaWithAHat]

37. Trump supporters would vote for Sanders

If for some reason Trump is not the nominee.

Our president may have some accomplishments, but people know that wages are being held artificially low because companies pay low wages to undocumented immigrants, jobs are being outsourced, and people are losing jobs to holders of H1-B visas. They know that our government has made it ridiculously easy if not downright lucrative for corporations to move jobs out of the country.

They know that we're going to bail out Wall Street again, if necessary. They know that both parties are now run by 1%ers for 1%ers.

People know that they can't afford to use that insurance plan they got under Obamacare.

They know that even some democrats are open to slashing Social Security before they lift the ceiling on contributions.

People are fed up with both parties. If Sanders hadn't gotten serious media attention during the first few primaries, I really don't think that Hillary would be the future democratic nominee.

Btw, my brother voted for Trump. (I voted for Bernie.) He can't stand Hillary, and his vote is a big "Fuck you!" to the republican party. We don't have much in common politically, except that we both know that our political leaders will screw us every which way they can as long as they can hold onto power and get rich at the same time.

Yeah, I'm jaded.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

39. Thanks for the clarification

It seems you ARE agreeing with the CBC link from the OP. Sanders is appealing to some, though not all, of the emotions that drive Trump supporters.

Perhaps what makes Trump supporters among Sanders primary voters favor Trump in the GE are the emotions Sanders thankfully doesn't support--anti-Muslim bigotry, xenophobic craving for a big wall, fever to deport 11 million working people, etc.

[Jitter65]

33. Except Trump is lying and has held just the opposite position on all the issues mentioned. nt