2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMy "Black Population to Predict Primaries" model is now 14 of 15 (93.3%)
Last edited Tue May 17, 2016, 11:50 PM - Edit history (1)
Hypothesis: Simply by analyzing the percentage of a state's population that is black, I believe you can fairly accurately predict the "winner" of a state in upcoming primaries and caucuses. There will be misses, I am sure, but I'm bored, so let's see how this works out. I'll bump the thread and fill in actual results (With insightful commentary like, "Boy, that one was wrong!" as primaries go on...assuming people are interested in my validation or humiliation, as the case may be.
So let's begin with states that have already voted
Your key for numbers below:
State Rank for Black Pop. State % of Pop. that is Black
All numbers from 2010 Census
Bernie Wins
44 NH 1.22%
33 CO 4.28%
31 MN 4.57%
26 OK 7.96%
49 VT 0.87%
29 KS 6.15%
32 NE 4.50%
47 ME 1.03%
16 MI 14.24%
48 ID 0.95%
43 UT 1.27%
Avg Black Pop 4.28%
At +1 Standard Deviation 8.38%
Hillary Wins
40 IA 2.68%
23 NV 9.00%
5 SC 28.48%
6 AL 26.38%
12 AR 15.76%
3 GA 31.4%
25 MA 8.1%
10 TN 16.78%
18 TX 11.91%
9 VA 19.91%
2 LA 32.4%
1 MS 37.30%
11 FL 15.91%
14 IL 14.88%
19 MO 11.49%
7 NC 21.60%
17 OH 12.04%
35 AZ 4.16%
Avg Black Pop 17.79%
At -1 Standard Deviation 7.80%
Prediction Methodology: If a state's black population is less than Bernie's 1 St Dev number, I predict he wins. If it is more than Hillary's 1 St Dev number, I predict she wins.
So my straight up, no commentary predictions (Note: this isn't a prediction of margin of victory, just who comes out on top as the state's winner. I also do not include territories):
34 AK 4.27% Bernie Correct
38 HI 3.08% Bernie Correct
36 WA 3.74% Bernie Correct
30 WI 6.07% Bernie Correct
42 WY 1.29% Bernie Correct
13 NY 15.18% Hillary Correct
21 CT 10.34% Hillary Correct
8 DE 20.95% Hillary Correct
4 MD 30.1% Hillary Correct
20 PA 10.79% Hillary Correct
27 RI 7.5% Bernie Correct
22 IN 9.07% Hillary Sanders--Clinton won black vote by 52%
37 WV 3.58% Bernie Correct
24 KY 8.2% Hillary Correct
41 OR 2.01% Bernie Correct
28 CA 6.67% Bernie
50 MT 0.67% Bernie
15 NJ 14.46% Hillary
39 NM 2.97% Bernie
46 ND 1.08% Bernie
45 SD 1.14% Bernie
** DC 50.7% Hillary
Now there will be some misses here, because the two data sets overlap in the 2nd Standard Deviation (Mean+2*StDev vs Mean -2*StDev), so the question will become which states and in which direction. That said, misses should favor Hillary as her Standard Deviation is over twice as wide as Bernie's (Wider standard deviation means more variation in the numbers. In this case, wider Deviation means Clinton has been more successful among a wider variation in black population than Bernie).
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)it makes me wonder what actually controls it or determines it. I assume you might know or have some insights. I don't think it's just a random occurrence that it seems to be so consistent and one sided. My sense is there is some sort of "top down" control to the vote but I don't really understand it enough to determine why.
When so many people of a group seem to be voting en masse in a nearly unified direction, there has to be some reason for it and my guess it's a centralized reason.
Clinton definitely will owe her nomination to this constituency. She should thank them.
forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)Sanders needed to not only reach out to African-Americans and make his program more explicitly inclusive of POC concerns, AND he needed to undercut the "Obama's third term" narrative, if not co-opt it for himself as the "change candidate". The problem is that Sanders would need to change up his style from the tone-deaf white leftist know-it-all model he and his cohorts have labored under for 50 years because that shit is like chalk on a blackboard to AAs. Clinton was vulnerable, because people are looking for something more, but Sanders as far as many if not most black people are concerned, are in "we're cool with you but there's a reason we ain't ever heard of you before". The problem is that white "leftists" have this tendency to NEVER fucking blame their own tactics or ideas for their failures, it's always "DA MAN" (actually the fact that typical white privileged "leftists" seem to be exactly what conservatives think leftism is about makes me think of a phrase that begins with "C" and ends with "N" keeping them from accomplishing anything, so the fact that "we ain't heard of you before" is to them, just evidence that there's a conspiracy to keep True ProgressivesTM out of the mainstream.
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)Your predictions are favorable for Sanders here on out. California? Nice. Not going to change anything as I expect Clinton to be the nominee. But interesting nonetheless. By this time most (?all) nominees would be pulling off more impressive wins... look how Cruz and the rest folded by now.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)But I don't expect it to matter in the long run. I would like to see if I get through the rest of the season with only 0 or 1 more miss.
YouDig
(2,280 posts)very strongly predict the outcomes. This is pretty impressive that it comes down so much to one factor.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)On the Democratic side, there is a correlation of around 72 to 75% between % of total black voters and final margin of outcome. We have a very clean break in the primaries this year.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)She also takes PR and the Virgin Island which isn't on your list
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I didn't model territories, because I didn't know if there follow mainland demographic trends, but it is clear that Hillary has done well in the islands.
As for CA, I personally believe she will win it. But I not going to invalidate the model by changing the parameters for CA to get to what i think will happen. Instead, if it it a miss, it will just be a miss.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)They will be a major factor in CA.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Other non-white voters can be modeled, but, to cut through the noise, it would take more work than in willing to do for a forum post where, possibly, half the people in here have me on ignore.
But a non-white vs white model will probably be more accurate for CA, yes.