Polls: Trump Closing In On Hillary

[kaleckim]

Not good. She is an incredibly weak candidate.

[CoffeeCat]

1. And it's only going to get worse

Clinton is so scripted and rigid. She's is not prepared to handle Trump, who will be lobbing grenades at her from all directions. She's had it sooooo easy with Bernie.

Trump went after her and Bill's sex life this week. Clinton's response was to hide and not respond. Not a winning strategy.

I worry about her in a debate with Trump. She's actually an amazing debater when she's able to stay on script, word for word. But when she goes off script, she runs off the rails. Bernie caught her off guard, on very minor points and she practically blew a gasket. When Bernie went after her on her Wall Street contributions and how they would impact her behavior toward the banks--she spewed some nonsense about 9/11! A horrible moment for her.

Trump will throw down so many comments and zingers at her. I have absolutely no faith that she'll be prepared for it, or that she'll be able to respond effectively. She won't get away with soundbytes on her email server, Libya, her Iraq War vote, her Wall Street big money connections--when it comes to Trump. He won't pull any punches, and he also won't allow her to get away with canned non-responses.

Bernie would be the better candidate against Trump. Oh, what a great campaign that would be. Bernie is the perfect candidate to take on Trump.

[kaleckim]

5. What a sad situation

Where the American public on the whole is far more supportive of the most progressive candidate in the race than the Democratic Party.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. The high level press in the States

and foreign press, warned of this, months ago. I said my piece months ago. It is what it is, you cannot reason with partisans, (on either side)

[George II]

2. And yet her opponent, who is hundreds of delegates behind, is immensely weaker.

[kaleckim]

4. Did you watch the video?

The American people don't agree. They don't, the polls are overwhelmingly clear on that. That is YOUR opinion, but you don't get to invent your own reality.

[George II]

8. More than 3 million Americans favor Clinton over the other guy, and more than one MILLION....

...have voted for Clinton than Trump.

These questionable attacks on Clinton will NOT win the nomination for anyone than Clinton.

So, what's your point? What's your objective?

[Loudestlib]

11. 3 million democrats. Everybody votes in the GE sparky.

[George II]

12. Yes, and as we saw tonight, a huge percentage of Sanders voters will opt for Trump in November.....

...., to use your insulting characterization, "sparky".

[Loudestlib]

14. Is that a point? Are you trying to make a point?

Lots of independents will not vote for Hillary in the GE. Some of them will vote for Trump if the choice is Trump or Clinton.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. And a lesser number of Clinton suppprters (this time) wil vote Trump

it is in the same poll sparky.

15 percent to be exact.

[JudyM]

32. Ha! Sparky!!

[kaleckim]

13. Head slap

Yes, more Democrats (especially in the former Confederacy) have voted for a person with historically bad net favorables, someone that is not trusted, someone that polls far worse than the other guy and is far more beatable. That was the point of the video too, which you probably avoided.

These "attacks" aren't questionable either, just because you don't want to acknowledge this situation for what it is. The polls show that she is a horrible candidate, and if anything goes wrong (and lots of things with her can), she's in deep trouble. The polls aren't questionable, you sticking your head in the sand and making this silly argument is questionable.

"So, what's your point?"

See above.

[Actor]

27. I just wish people would be honest, just admit they will either vote for Trump or sit out

the election with the hope of Trump winning.

[kaleckim]

29. Or, you wish that people would act and think

in ways that affirms your simplistic reading of the situation, cause that doesn't describe most people like myself or objective reality. It isn't my fault that she is such a horrible candidate and her supporters ignored the reality that they are now being forced to deal with.

[Actor]

30. No, I wish people would be honest. You either are or are not willing to see Trump

and the teaparty take over our entire country, or you are not.

Which is it?

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Threats,demands, how "democratic" of you

in case you missed the memo, the vote is a private affair.

[kaleckim]

51. Nope

Not playing your game. The fact is that both candidates represent a reduction in my living standards and they are both horrible, just in different ways. You chose a horrible candidate in this election, someone unwilling to change an inequitable and corrupt system leading us to ecological collapse, and she's corrupt. You saying that I must support Trump, secretly or otherwise, is simplistic and shows you aren't making sense of the changes underway in the country.

By the way, I live in Illinois. If that corrupt politician wins the nomination, which is likely, me not supporting a reduction in my own living standards by supporting her will have no impact. So, even if you could make a reason why I should vote for her (as opposed to voting against Trump), it doesn't apply to me, it would apply to people in swing states. So peddle that crap somewhere else.

[Logical]

7. Lol, reading difficult for you? Nt

[silvershadow]

3. He's NOT closing in on Bernie, though!! nt

[beaglelover]

56. Because Bernie has not been vetted by the cons yet!! nt

[anotherproletariat]

6. It will be nice once she only has to fight one battle. When is that old guy going to surrender?

After all, the writing has been on the wall for quite a while.

[timmymoff]

9. He is waiting for hillary to step down for the good of the party

instead of the continued enrichment of herself. I hope he doesn't hold his breath waiting I tried to hold my breath waiting on the transcripts, but that has to be two months or more now.

[kaleckim]

10. Deflect

and for what reason? She's a horrible candidate and is far more beatable than he is. If independents were allowed to vote freely in your party's primary, she'd be toast. He should stick around for multiple reasons, one of them being that she's under investigation and could be indicted. Maybe, if she's behind bars, some Democrats will be open to not supporting her. Nothing's assured though. LOL!

[Iliyah]

15. No she is not a horrible candidate.

The GOP will not win the WH in 2016 courtesy of Mrs. Clinton.

[kaleckim]

17. I understand that you feel that way

but the American public doesn't agree. They don't seem to like either, but she is entirely beatable, and she could lose to the most unpopular major party candidate in polling history. She's the second most, which says tons about the state of our political system.

[Iliyah]

18. Nor BS as well, he's not as popular as you think

But alas you know that, and I'm done.

[kaleckim]

19. It isn't about what I think

It's about what the polls and the public are saying. You can say he is weak, but there are no facts to back up that he is weaker than she or Trump are. None.

[liberalnarb]

43. Hes FAR more popular than sec. Clinton.

He's also the only candidate in the race who is like more than disliked. What tf are you talking about.

[kaleckim]

58. They seem determined

to harm their candidate. They don't seem to fully realize how much things have changed. It isn't 1993, they can't just brush the left aside, mock the left, and think it will fall in line, that there'll be no consequences. They're in for a rude awakening, and none of them seem to be making sense of the mood of the country or why people so strongly supported Sanders in the first place. They keep on repeating talking points that are now 25 years old and don't seem to want to break out of their little mental bubbles. Well, pop.

[PufPuf23]

16. Interesting to see a debate between Trump and Clinton

Hillary Clinton will be better informed but Trump may well cause her to lose composure.

Clinton is a highly risky Democratic candidate against Trump.

One has to wonder what the pair might say to each other in private now given their past acquaintance.

[summerschild]

20. Clinton began this race at the bottom of a hole the

GOP has been digging for 25 years. No, they're not going to like any Democratic candidate, but the Clintons - well, the GOP has got a special hate for them and they've been petting it for YEARS.

The elite of the Democratic Party knew that - have always known it - yet they chose to start out with this mountain of bullChitt facing them.

[KingFlorez]

21. Clinton will beat Trump like a dirty rug

and then stomp all over him before throwing him off a cliff. End of story.

[kaleckim]

25. Oh

well reality be damned. I can show poll after poll that she is in trouble, is a far weaker candidate than Sanders versus Trump, but you got that claim there. Say, if your claims can just change the reality we inhabit (end of story), can you say something definitive about me winning the lotto? Please wait a few hours for me to buy a ticket, then say the comment, then I'll scratch the winning numbers. If it all works, and I do have faith in you, I'll throw some of the winning proceeds your way. Deal?

[jzodda]

22. Nate Sliver says these polls mean ZERO

He has been stating over at 538 that none of these early polls mean squat. He says he doesn't take them seriously. What pollster do I trust? Nate Silver who was (among) the most accurate last cycle.

[kaleckim]

24. LOL!

The same Nate Silver that admits he was insanely wrong on Trump? The same Nate Silver that now admits that he did in fact have a bias in how he aggregated his data (see the video below)? The same Nate Silver that has a proven bias in favor of Clinton (see the link below, have tons more)?

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/04/is-538-in-the-bag-for-hillary/

Hatlem claims that in 18 of 21 states outside the South, Silver’s predictions have a pro-Clinton bias of 12.5%. He bases his analysis from what polls predicted, on what 538 forecasted, and on the results from those primaries. Silver has been averaging polls to predict primary outcomes and he has also been mapping polls and 538’s predictions to track over time how well candidates are gathering the necessary delegates to capture the nomination. Significantly, Hatlem does something Silver doesn’t do: admit his own bias—for Sanders. He writes that he has been wrong in twelve of eighteen states since Super Tuesday because his predictions had a pro-Clinton bias of 7%. In other words, he “undersold Sanders a bit” just to be safe in his voting forecasts.

Or this from TYT (watch it and respond):

"Nate Silver's Bias Exposed"

[jzodda]

33. Watched it but it doesn't change that its still very early

This is what Nate tweeted yesterday:

"For f--k's sake, America. You're going to make go on a rant about general election polls -- in May?" the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight wrote as part of a tweetstorm on Tuesday.


Silver said Clinton has an about 6 percent lead over Trump nationally, but cautioned: "It's early. Trump could win. Also, he could lose in a landslide." He added that Trump's presumptive nomination and Clinton's ongoing battle with Bernie Sanders could be having an effect — "We'll know more in June."
The statistician said he wouldn't have polls of each state for "a few months."


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/nate-silver-trump-clinton-polls-223015#ixzz48N1yTkh3


I never pay attention to these early polls. In 1980 Carter had a 10 point lead at this point. In 1988 Dukakis was polling well in the spring. In 2000 they had GW winning by 10+ points and he lost the vote.

As far as bias its an interesting video. thanks for the link. My own take is that this is all media driven. They need a horse race and they will find any way to make sure it exists.

[kaleckim]

39. He's lying and he knows it

There is a strong statistical evidence that polls this close to the election closely align with the final tally, and he knows that. I'd love to hear his logic though, since his career is based on polling elections that won't happen for months in advance. If polling now doesn't matter at all, then which polls that he conducts has any worth? Will he stop doing polls about elections beyond a certain point? You can't really buy that argument.

[AntiBank]

55. LOLLOL 2 words for Nate--------- Donald Trumpf

[amborin]

23. only Bernie can beat Trump

[JonathanRackham]

26. I can't wait for the Trump-Sanders debate.

[floriduck]

28. What a sad state of affairs that Hillary isn't cleaning Trumps clock!

[senz]

31. Too much baggage.

She never thought her past would catch up with her?

[scscholar]

37. Ridiculous, he's not even closing in on Palin, much less...

HRC!

[kaleckim]

40. Objective reality says hi

you're welcome to look at actual facts, is that okay in Clintonland? Are her horrible favorables and the fact that she isn't trusted no worry as well? My god, you people are logically unreachable.

[Dem2]

38. Lol

[kaleckim]

41. Don't know what you are laughing at

The Democrats have chosen a horrible candidate and she is now not only neck and neck nationally, she is essentially tied in two swing states, and close to tied in another. You people are logically unreachable. You really are closed off mentally, which is why you're in this horrible position.

[Dem2]

44. So tell me what your solution is?

Do you have an alternative?

[Sheepshank]

42. well, it appears Bernie supporters like Trump Better. There's no accounting for taste. n/t

[kaleckim]

52. Based on what?

Where do you people get this stuff? Do you not feel a little guilty about lying so damn much? Maybe SOME Sanders supporters do (and I wouldn't trust you to make sense of why in a mature and well thought out manner), but some Clinton supporters would support him if Sanders was the nominee.

[runaway hero]

45. She will win

by 3 to 5 points. She is weak, not that weak. There was going to be no blowout of Trump like some where hoping.


I have respect for HRC to run in the first place, unlike Warren who engages in childish games on twitter with Trump.

[Beacool]

49. Match-up polls this early don't mean much.

Trump just won his party's nomination. Hillary is still running against Sanders. She has to fight on two fronts. Let's see what happens when she's the nominee and Democrats give their full attention to defeating Trump.

[Logical]

50. Everyone knkws hillary and trump, they do mean something. Nt

[kaleckim]

53. "Match-up polls this early don't mean much."

Nope, the evidence shows that generally, people's opinions don't radically change this late in the game. She is not liked (historically bad, she's lucky she's running against the only person more disliked and if the Republicans pick someone else, she's in deep trouble), not trusted, is corrupt and has a ton of skeletons in her closet. If ANYTHING goes wrong between now and the election, look out. Why the Democrats chose her, as weak of a candidate as they could find, says a lot about what they've become. YOU might like her, the country doesn't, and the polls are clear (and have been for a long time).

[Demsrule86]

54. Thanks Bernie Sanders

We won't forget your role in helping Trump...well you will be out with a month ...so then we can move on. I hope I never see your face again.The Math is th math...you are now participating in a zombie primary. We have plenty of time to turn it around.

[kaleckim]

57. Your likely candidate

is the weakest candidate your party could have chosen, horrible favorables, untrusted, polls much worse versus Trump (tied, or nearly tied now in key swing states, huge net negative favorables in many of them too), hawkish, center-right record on economic issues, corrupt. Horrible, weak, candidate. The Democrats like you that chose her have revealed yourself, you're little better or different than the snakes on the right. You are just as important in maintaining this corrupt and inequitable system and I'd be willing to bet that you're older. Your generation was handed a country in far better shape than the one you're handing over. Everything (the economy, infrastructure, the environment, public education, poor communities) has gotten worse under your watch. You want to mock people that want to at least try to start cleaning up the mess you've created. Sadly, there were more people like Hillary Clinton in your generation than there were Bernie Sanders, and younger people are utterly screwed now because of it. Thank god Sanders came along, not only did he show how popular the left's ideas are, he also has exposed so many people in the Democratic Party and the media.

[nadinbrzezinski]

59. As predicted

it could never, ever be the candidate the Dems are choosing.