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bigtree

(85,915 posts)
Wed May 11, 2016, 07:56 AM May 2016

So Sanders needed to beat Clinton by 52% in the WVa.Primary

Victoria Brownworth ?@VABVOX 4h4 hours ago
So Sanders needed to beat Clinton by 52% tonight in the #WVPrimary.

He beat her by 14%.

Just saying.


Victoria Brownworth ?@VABVOX 4h4 hours ago
Here's the math going forward.




NBC News ?@NBCNews 8h8 hours ago
Donald Trump supporters gave Bernie Sanders a boost in West Virginia http://nbcnews.to/27cydiq #Decision2016
63 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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So Sanders needed to beat Clinton by 52% in the WVa.Primary (Original Post) bigtree May 2016 OP
Every time he "wins" he falls further behind. baldguy May 2016 #1
Not according to some of my Facebook friends, LOL. He can still livetohike May 2016 #2
Did you listen to Bernie's speech...he is encouraging and feeding the delusion Sheepshank May 2016 #24
That's how you know it was about his ego from the beginning CorkySt.Clair May 2016 #26
this is what my wife has been saying for months DrDan May 2016 #59
The democratic primary has become a black hole. Agschmid May 2016 #3
I disagree. A competitive primary has advantages for various reasons. Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #5
At the beginning yes, but it's no longer a competitive primary. Fla Dem May 2016 #9
Last nights win changed his needed delegate percentage pull from 65.6% to 65.7%. morningfog May 2016 #15
And it was the ideal state for him. Adrahil May 2016 #16
But Oregon is a closed primary state. Only registered Dems can vote. Fla Dem May 2016 #18
Yep. However.... Adrahil May 2016 #49
Well, there I'd agree Tarc May 2016 #11
exactly. Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #40
Good points, guys. It's too easy to be dragged into Hortensis May 2016 #58
I want a good President, not an "interesting" convention. George II May 2016 #19
That's not Hillary, though. Fawke Em May 2016 #62
Wrong Demsrule86 May 2016 #25
just like Obama was damaged by Hillary? Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #42
Its sad, but let them flail about. Acceptance will come, and then support for the nominee, HRC. nt LexVegas May 2016 #4
Summed it up perfectly. Dawgs May 2016 #6
Your sense of entitlement is still as galling as it was last week. Betty Karlson May 2016 #7
It's no sense of entitlement. It's reality. Fla Dem May 2016 #13
She certainly isn't entitled to the support / votes / campaign efforts of Sanders' supporters - Betty Karlson May 2016 #22
you got almost every misinformed, ignorant regurgitated meme down pat...congrats (not) Sheepshank May 2016 #38
Wow, that's the most deliberately disingenuous post... dchill May 2016 #41
it was patently false. Sheepshank May 2016 #54
"Blind hatred" is probably just projection on your part... dchill May 2016 #57
Using adverbs like "patently" is a tell-tale sign of lack of argument. Betty Karlson May 2016 #61
Thanks for the gentlemanly / gentlewomanly defense. yes, it was disingenuous. Betty Karlson May 2016 #60
Just the opposite. Fawke Em May 2016 #63
+1 dchill May 2016 #43
Ok zappaman May 2016 #50
What a pantload. eom PufPuf23 May 2016 #36
He's lost. Getting mad about it won't change that. NT Adrahil May 2016 #17
She keeps losing primaries. When will you guys realise that she is a flawed candidate? Betty Karlson May 2016 #23
Obama our two term president Demsrule86 May 2016 #28
Obama didn't poll dismally with independents in swing states. Betty Karlson May 2016 #32
Hillary not secured a majority of the pledged delegates. morningfog May 2016 #8
I don't agree Demsrule86 May 2016 #29
Then you agree. NJ votes on June 7 as well. morningfog May 2016 #37
Huh? Hillary has 1,716 pledged delegates to Bernie's 1,432. How has Hillary not secured a majority? apnu May 2016 #33
She has a majority of the pledged delegates allocated so far, but not a majority of total PDs morningfog May 2016 #35
Not yet, but with Supers she doesn't have to. apnu May 2016 #46
Right. Neither can or will win the nomination without the supers bridging the gap. But they supers morningfog May 2016 #47
So he's LOSING GROUND with each passing primary? (Someone really should should tell them.) NurseJackie May 2016 #10
K&R mcar May 2016 #12
Hillary will probably have enough delegates to win before CA finishes voting Renew Deal May 2016 #14
Only with the estimated Supers who don't 'vote' until the convention. w4rma May 2016 #21
Nobody votes to the convention Trenzalore May 2016 #27
That is not how it works Demsrule86 May 2016 #31
We're saying the same thing. Renew Deal May 2016 #53
Ditto! Iliyah May 2016 #51
Prior to April 26 he needed 58.6% of the remaining pledged delegates, that's now up to 65.7%... George II May 2016 #20
California would have to be 98% by the time the election rolls around Iliyah May 2016 #52
What is with the percentages? OnlinePoker May 2016 #30
Good question. Something's not right. (nt) apnu May 2016 #34
There were numerous other candidates on the ballot... dchill May 2016 #39
Hillary lost to a local chap in one county. morningfog May 2016 #44
Shouldn't he get 9% of the delegates then? OnlinePoker May 2016 #48
All states in the Democratic Primary have a 15% threshold to be allotted any delegates. morningfog May 2016 #55
Yah like Sanders winning by over 16% and only getting 2 more delegates than Clinton... OnlinePoker May 2016 #56
Well, color me impressed. I never knew 14% loss == VICTORY! hellofromreddit May 2016 #45
 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
24. Did you listen to Bernie's speech...he is encouraging and feeding the delusion
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:09 AM
May 2016

it seems so very unethical to me.

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
3. The democratic primary has become a black hole.
Wed May 11, 2016, 08:05 AM
May 2016

Where money and enthusiasm go to die a slow and painful death.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
5. I disagree. A competitive primary has advantages for various reasons.
Wed May 11, 2016, 08:12 AM
May 2016

Plus, I think it's good to challenge Hillary from the left.
If nothing else, it will make the convention more interesting.

Fla Dem

(23,339 posts)
9. At the beginning yes, but it's no longer a competitive primary.
Wed May 11, 2016, 08:59 AM
May 2016

Bernie Sanders falls further behind with each primary. After Indiana he had to win 65-70% of the delegates to even pull even. He picked up 16 delegates to HRC's 11 last night, a mere 55%. So he missed his target and only picked up 5 delegates on HRC's lead. That means the percent of delegates he has to win going forward becomes larger.

What's really troubling is the 40% of independent voters who said they voted for BS, but if the general election was between Bernie and Trump they would vote for Trump. As there has been throughout the primaries, the RW has been voting BS in order to block HRC. They have always felt they would have a better chance to win the WH if the Dem nominee was Bernie.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
16. And it was the ideal state for him.
Wed May 11, 2016, 09:32 AM
May 2016

VERY white, and a semi-open primary. It's demographically one of the best states for him (Oregon, being slightly better), and he missed his delegate target. In fact, he lost with Democrats. That's bad news given that Kentucky and Oregon are both closed primaries. Clinton could actually win KY, and though I still think OR is likely a win for Sanders, he won't win by anything close to 30 points in either. He'll almost certainly lose New Jersey. He'll have to win CA with well over 70% of the vote.

Fla Dem

(23,339 posts)
18. But Oregon is a closed primary state. Only registered Dems can vote.
Wed May 11, 2016, 09:44 AM
May 2016

It will be interesting to see how that one shakes out without the independents skewing the results. California will be another semi-open primary where indies will be able to vote in the primary. The latest CNN poll has HRC up by 8%.

In any event there is no path for BS to secure the nomination. All he's doing at this point is spinning his wheels and giving false hope to his fans.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
49. Yep. However....
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:01 PM
May 2016

I still think he'll win OR narrowly. But not by NEARLY enough. I think Clinton has a decent chance to win KY, but if Sanders wins, it'll be a fairly narrow win. Sanders could win CA, but again, narrowly. HRC is up in the CA polls, but Sanders often overperforms in open and semi-open primaries. It would not surprise me at all if he pulls pulls out a 4-5 point victory, but FAR short of the 35-40 point margin he is likely to need by then. She will shellac him in NJ and DC.

Tarc

(10,472 posts)
11. Well, there I'd agree
Wed May 11, 2016, 09:05 AM
May 2016

It does keep the Democrats and our message in the media 24/7, and makes at least a partial dent in their what-will-that-craaaaaazy-Donald-say-next fascination.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
58. Good points, guys. It's too easy to be dragged into
Wed May 11, 2016, 01:46 PM
May 2016

dissecting what is mostly far beneath the notice of busy people and lose perspective and sight of what matters.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
42. just like Obama was damaged by Hillary?
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:33 AM
May 2016

The argument I didn't make above is that a competitive primary helps build state by state infrastructure for the GE.

Fla Dem

(23,339 posts)
13. It's no sense of entitlement. It's reality.
Wed May 11, 2016, 09:12 AM
May 2016

There was never any sense that HRC was "entitled" to be the Democratic nominee. She wasn't even sure she wanted to run. She knew she had an uphill battle right from the start. All the crap the RW would throw at her, she's a woman, and she lost the 2008 campaign.

This is not entitlement. This is a woman who has worked hard, earned respect around the world, who is probably more accomplished than any presidential candidate in the last 25 years.

For you or any Bernie fan to distill her accomplishments down to "entitlement" is ill-informed, ignorant. and frankly sour grapes.

But it doesn't matter. Hillary Clinton will go down in history as one of the best President, while Bernie Sanders will be but a footnote in history as a mediocre Congressman and Senator from Vt.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
22. She certainly isn't entitled to the support / votes / campaign efforts of Sanders' supporters -
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:01 AM
May 2016

which is the sense of entitlement that I find most galling.

worked hard? -for the 1 % interests certainly. Not so much for working class interests, people of color, or gay rights.

Earned respect? - not in my book. Nor in the book of anyone who's country was bombed into ISIS strongholds because of the way she voted as senator, or the way she acted as SOS.

accomplished? - by being stuck in the 20th century, tin-eared to millennials, and taking $650,000 a speach from the guys who brought you the crisis we have been in for a decade?

For you to call me ill-informed is to repeat that nauseating insult Clinton hurled at my generation: that we are easily duped and don't do our homework. The reverse is true: the more people do their homework, the less reason they find to support Mrs Status Quo. The status quo is untenable. But you, comfortable in your sheltered age group, won't agree so until the status quo starts to hurt you personally. And then you have the unmitigated gall to call me ignorant and sour-graped.

Enjoy the last 20th-century campaign. In four years time, all it may be remembered for is driving away half the democratic base, and all the party's future.

But I still hold out hope that it will come to a very final failure, and that we will nominate the candidate who guarantees lots of landslide victories and the future of the Dmocratic Party: someone with sound judgement who gets major decisions right at once (gay rights, TPP, IWR). We had better nominate Bernie Sanders.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
38. you got almost every misinformed, ignorant regurgitated meme down pat...congrats (not)
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:24 AM
May 2016

perhaps a little homework into her actual service records would have you at least avoiding all the stupid sweeping and misinformed statements you just made.

dchill

(38,315 posts)
41. Wow, that's the most deliberately disingenuous post...
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:33 AM
May 2016

I've seen today. Her post is completely accurate, and you know it. Just because something sticks in your craw doesn't make it poison.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
54. it was patently false.
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:07 PM
May 2016

and you blind hatred is holding you back from seeing the bigger picture. I feel sorry for you.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
61. Using adverbs like "patently" is a tell-tale sign of lack of argument.
Thu May 12, 2016, 10:49 AM
May 2016

Since you have none - except a repeat of that tired old lie about millennials who "haven't done their homework" (ageist much?) - we may as well have expected the adverb.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
60. Thanks for the gentlemanly / gentlewomanly defense. yes, it was disingenuous.
Thu May 12, 2016, 10:47 AM
May 2016

But somehow, it fails to diappoint anymore.

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
63. Just the opposite.
Thu May 12, 2016, 10:57 AM
May 2016

Bernie voters are VERY informed, that's why we're not supporting Hillary.

We may be fighting until the bitter end, but at least we don't have our heads in the sand regarding a NON-PARTISAN FBI investigation that could affect the entire Democratic Party for years.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
23. She keeps losing primaries. When will you guys realise that she is a flawed candidate?
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:06 AM
May 2016

If she can only win in sheltered and conditioned contests (only regeistered democrats, with lots of establishment favors and all chance events going her way) then she won't be able to win in the GE. And her flaws will reverberate downticket too.

Why are you guys so desperate to lose - to Trump, of all people?

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
28. Obama our two term president
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:14 AM
May 2016

lost nine primaries at the end which included Ohio and Pennsylvania. Delegate math trumps zombie wins.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
32. Obama didn't poll dismally with independents in swing states.
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:16 AM
May 2016

GE (un)electability and net negative favorability matter more than conditioned delegate accumulation in a primary process tailored to your needs by your former Florida campaign manager.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
8. Hillary not secured a majority of the pledged delegates.
Wed May 11, 2016, 08:28 AM
May 2016

She will not secure a majority of the pledged delegates until June 7, if she does.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
37. Then you agree. NJ votes on June 7 as well.
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:24 AM
May 2016

It is mathematically impossible for her to secure a total majority of pledged delegates until June 7. And it most likely will not be until the CA polls close.

apnu

(8,722 posts)
33. Huh? Hillary has 1,716 pledged delegates to Bernie's 1,432. How has Hillary not secured a majority?
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:20 AM
May 2016

The race isn't over, but everybody can see that Hillary has led in pledged delegates from very early on, how is this not a majority of Democratic Party voters?

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
35. She has a majority of the pledged delegates allocated so far, but not a majority of total PDs
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:22 AM
May 2016

That number, 2,026, is the clinch number. She leads but has not clinched a majority of the pledged delegates.

apnu

(8,722 posts)
46. Not yet, but with Supers she doesn't have to.
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:37 AM
May 2016

That's the way the rules are for Democrats. In 2008, neither Obama or Clinton secured 2,026 pledged delegates.

Obama collected 1,828.5 PDs and Clinton 1,726.5. That year the magic number was 2,117 at the Convention. Obama, in the end had 2,285.5.

This number is 2,383 to secure the nomination w/out a floor fight. PD's are only part of the equation, one cannot win the nomination on PDs alone.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
47. Right. Neither can or will win the nomination without the supers bridging the gap. But they supers
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:39 AM
May 2016

bridge the gap for the pledged delegate winner.

The candidate who secures the majority of pledged delegates, 2,026, will have enough supers vote for them to get them to 2,383 at the convention. It is a race to 2,026 pledged delegates.

Renew Deal

(81,801 posts)
14. Hillary will probably have enough delegates to win before CA finishes voting
Wed May 11, 2016, 09:20 AM
May 2016

She will be very close after PR

 

w4rma

(31,700 posts)
21. Only with the estimated Supers who don't 'vote' until the convention.
Wed May 11, 2016, 10:27 AM
May 2016

Hillary will, absolutely, *not* win through pledged delegates, alone. She'd have to win more than 65% of the delegates from every race onward.

Trenzalore

(2,331 posts)
27. Nobody votes to the convention
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:13 AM
May 2016

Also, Bernie has spent the past 9 months complaining about super delegates. Now that is his only path to victory they are going to endorse him en masse?

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
31. That is not how it works
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:15 AM
May 2016

If she is ahead in delegate count, the supers act to put her over. Also, they commit before the convention as they did in 08 for Obama.

George II

(67,782 posts)
20. Prior to April 26 he needed 58.6% of the remaining pledged delegates, that's now up to 65.7%...
Wed May 11, 2016, 10:16 AM
May 2016

....the hole is getting deeper and deeper.

OnlinePoker

(5,702 posts)
30. What is with the percentages?
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:14 AM
May 2016

There are two people in the race and everyone is showing the results as (approx) Sanders 51.4% and Clinton 35.8%. Where did the other 12.8% of the votes go?

OnlinePoker

(5,702 posts)
48. Shouldn't he get 9% of the delegates then?
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:55 AM
May 2016

Who decides how a state's delegates get divided up if they aren't using the percentages? As a Canadian, I see the way Americans elect their people for president as absolutely bizarre. The superdelegate system for the Democrats is anything but democratic, for instance. Our first past the post system isn't great either, but Trudeau promised reform as one of his election promises last year so we'll see.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
55. All states in the Democratic Primary have a 15% threshold to be allotted any delegates.
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:16 PM
May 2016

If a candidate doesn't get at least 15%, no delegates. Any above 15% are awarded proportionally by some often complicated math.

OnlinePoker

(5,702 posts)
56. Yah like Sanders winning by over 16% and only getting 2 more delegates than Clinton...
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:57 PM
May 2016

...because of the supers.

 

hellofromreddit

(1,182 posts)
45. Well, color me impressed. I never knew 14% loss == VICTORY!
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:36 AM
May 2016

Enjoy the party. You've clearly earned it.

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