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George II

(67,782 posts)
Wed May 11, 2016, 03:26 PM May 2016

Poll: Despite Bernie Sanders' Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon

Clinton 48, Sanders 33 (Clinton +15%)

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

Poll: Despite Bernie Sanders' Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon

by Anna Griffin OPB | May 9, 2016 5:14 p.m. | Updated: May 10, 2016 7:40 p.m. | Portland

A new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump headed toward primary victories next week in Oregon — and suggests Clinton holds a strong lead over Trump as both pivot toward the November general election.

DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene — he’ll speak again Tuesday night in Salem — but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.

There was a stark age gap: Among those younger than 45, 64 percent supported Sanders, compared to 20 percent for Clinton. Among those 45 and older, the numbers flip: Clinton has the support from 56 percent of older voters, and Sanders had 25 percent.

Researchers tested two potential turnout scenarios, to see if the race might change if turnout is higher than expected. But even in a higher turnout race, Clinton led Sanders, this time 45 percent to 38 percent.

(more)

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JackRiddler

(24,979 posts)
13. There hasn't been a primary in Oregon.
Wed May 11, 2016, 03:52 PM
May 2016

Some outfit released a poll. We've seen those be consistently wrong. Care to make a bet?

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
2. Surprises me a bit
Wed May 11, 2016, 03:30 PM
May 2016

Would have thought OR was prime Sanders territory politically, demographically, electorally. Wonder why the large deficit. Rural/Urban breakdown might be interesting.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
4. +1 Though it is not despite his crowds.
Wed May 11, 2016, 03:38 PM
May 2016

Showing up to a pep rally does not correlate to votes in any way. That goes for all candidates. So I don't think it is "despite," they can't be linked.

I still think Or is all Sanders.

George II

(67,782 posts)
10. Correct - Sanders' one rally in Connecticut had more people attend than about ten Clinton rallies...
Wed May 11, 2016, 03:49 PM
May 2016

...combined, and yet Clinton won Connecticut by more than 5%.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
6. If she wins Oregon
Wed May 11, 2016, 03:40 PM
May 2016

A) I would be very surprised
B) Kudos to her campaign for getting it done

I thought this had blowout potential for Bernie.

 

AzDar

(14,023 posts)
7. Yep. She's got Oregon in the bag... If she doesn't win by 15 points or more, it's all over for $Hill
Wed May 11, 2016, 03:40 PM
May 2016
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