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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEven though Bernie won WV last night, his chances have slipped even lower.
He needed 65%. He got 51%.
Address your complaints to rachel@msnbc.com
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Even though Bernie won WV last night, his chances have slipped even lower. (Original Post)
onehandle
May 2016
OP
If he does not get large percentages of the votes then it is still a loss to his campaign.
Thinkingabout
May 2016
#2
Yup...he had delegate goal he had to meet or beat to keep moving in the right direction
Sheepshank
May 2016
#3
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)1. Its not over.
Hillary has 1,716 pledged delegates and Bernie has 1,433 with some big states still to go.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)4. It's pretty much over.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)7. No one has won the nomination.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)9. That is a process statement, not a reality statement.
Technically, the nomination is not won until the convention. But we already know who will win. Reality.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)10. At this moment it is a reality.
LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)13. Math is math. nt
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)14. Here is the math.
Of the 3,149 delegates that have been awarded so far Hillary has 1,716 and Bernie has 1,433. So Hillary enjiys a 283 delegate lead at this point.
While the reported super delegate count commitrd so far is Hillary 524 to Bernie'Sanders 40. Bernie's 40 out of 564 superd's is 7% of the 564 while Hillary's 524 is 92.9% of the 564 superd's that have committed. Clearly a sham.
So if right now the super delegates that have committed to date had done so proportionately by the standard delegate count that each candidate has won the tally would be
Hillary 1,716 + 307 = 2,023
Bernie 1,433 + 257 = 1,690
This would be only a 333 delegate difference at this point in the race with some key states to go and since the superd's don't really commit until the convention.there is only a 283 awarded delegate count delta between the two candidates right now. Bernie can tie or surpass Hillary in standard pledged delegates before the convention and before she can secure enough standard delegates to win the nomination.
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)11. Like the guy sitting on Death Row - he isn't dead (yet).
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)2. If he does not get large percentages of the votes then it is still a loss to his campaign.
The percentage will increase for the next primary and again if he does not win by a large percentage then the percentage will grow again.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)3. Yup...he had delegate goal he had to meet or beat to keep moving in the right direction
Didn't make the goal, therefore he falls behind
QC
(26,371 posts)5. Yet he's still got you guys shitting your pantsuits, so it's all good. n/t
morningfog
(18,115 posts)6. He didn't need 65% last night.
He needs 65.7% of all remains pledged delegates. Really, he needs about 65% of the June 7 delegates. Just relax and enjoy the next 27 days.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)12. It keeps getting worse and worse for him.
The more he struggles, the more the sands shift beneath his feet.