Oregon may not be Bernie territory after all

[DCBob]

From Oregon Public Broadcasting..

A new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump headed toward primary victories next week in Oregon — and suggests Clinton holds a strong lead over Trump as both pivot toward the November general election.

DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene — he’ll speak again Tuesday night in Salem — but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

Survey details: http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1463018600/OPBFoxOregonDemocraticPrimaryTypicalTurnoutModel_vwg245.pdf

===============

Oregon is a closed primary so only Democrats allowed to vote in the Democratic primary. That appears to be Bernie's problem.

[COLGATE4]

1. Oh noes. It's a closed primary. Why, that means that only

Democrats can vote for the Democratic Party's candidate! Does the press know about this?

[DCBob]

3. Shocking!

[COLGATE4]

6. It tell you!

[Armstead]

34. Yes wouldn't want anyone who hasn't gone through the super-secret initiation to have a say

Jeebus. I thought it was Republicans who don't like people to have the opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice.

And before you pull out the Trump mischief card, I'd say that's about as good a justification as the GOP claims of fraudulent voting to justify their denial of access.

[SFnomad]

2. I'm happy for closed primaries at this point ... no "Operation Chaos" from Republicans n/t

[JackRiddler]

4. There is no "operation chaos" from Republicans.

Bullshit.

[SFnomad]

28. More denial from the BS cheerleaders n/t

[JackRiddler]

30. More Big Lies from the Clinton Campaign Bots.

I ain't no cheerleader, but I'll do whatever helps. Almost all career politicians disgust me and Clinton is practically the distilled essence of the last 40 years of bullshit. Sanders is just on the side of tolerable and honest, which makes him one-eyed king in the land of the blind. I prefer to talk about issues, not bullshit, or to invent paranoid crap about secret Republican waves. Yeah, I'm sure a lot of low-info voters in West Virginia who a) aren't so bad they're taken in by the Clinton bullshit and b) are angry for good reasons are ready to go with Sanders or Trump without distinction, foolishly. Why? Because Clinton is the Status Quo. Surprise surprise.

Jury: Read all the posts in the exchange. Thank you.

[ContinentalOp]

41. Then why didn't they just vote for Trump?

Why vote for Sanders but then tell pollsters that you actually favor Trump over Sanders unless you're trying to screw with the democratic primary?

[frylock]

42. Denial of what? Your fact-free accusations?

Come back with some hard data. We'll talk then.

[Demsrule86]

53. It was proven after WVA

They have talked about it on talk radio too.

[Warren DeMontague]

59. If you don't understand the difference between West Virginia and Oregon

you really should get out more.

[DCBob]

5. Indeed.. we have had enough of that crap.

[Turin_C3PO]

31. Here

I thought that it was mostly Sanders supporters throwing around conspiracy theories. There was no "operation chaos". Don't make clinton supporters look loony.

[ContinentalOp]

40. Oh really?

So the 40% of red state "independents" in West Virginia who voted for Sanders but say they prefer Trump were just confused?

[Arneoker]

56. I don't think that they were messing with the Democrats

They just hate the "establishment," and they think voting first for Bernie and then for Trump is the way to do it. I think its kind of nutty myself, but there is a certain logic to it.

Bottom line, WV was going to be the Republicans' if they had nominated Lord Voldemort with Darth Vader as his running mate. The Democrats talk about climate change, which means, "The War on Coal." The Democratic primary was just a means to express one's consolation choice for a lot of people there.

[Warren DeMontague]

61. And you think West Virginia is analagous to Oregon how, exactly?

[ContinentalOp]

62. Uh, it's not

SFnomad said that they were happy it's a closed primary to avoid "operation chaos." A couple other people said that it wasn't real. I was merely pointing out that there do in fact seem to be republicans crossing over to screw with the dem primary now that the republican nominee has been decided. So yes, it's a good thing that the Oregon primary is closed.

[Warren DeMontague]

63. Two things, one, I don't think there are nearly as many Republicans in Oregon, and two

I am fully convinced we have plenty of actual Democrats here who enthusiastically support Senator Sanders.

[leftynyc]

7. Good news

although I find it surprising.

[DCBob]

9. Me too..

I suspect it will be closer than that but just Hillary winning is big deal given this was supposed to be one of Bernie's "big" wins.

[leftynyc]

13. Although since he would have

to win each state left with at least 65% of the vote, it really doesn't matter. But shhhhhh - we're not supposed to notice math. It upsets people.

[still_one]

8. While the poll makes me smile, the sample size seems somewhat low so I don't know how reliable it is

but I'll take it

[DCBob]

15. Its all we got so its the "gold standard" at the moment!

[still_one]

20. Not arguing, and I truely hope it is a accurate representation

[Sheepshank]

22. yup...it's surprising how little polling info there is out there re: OR

I am kind of surprised. I wonder why there is so little info to be had?

[karynnj]

17. The low sample size does not make it invalid, it just increases the confidence interval compared to

larger sample sizes -- assuming it is well designed. Here, the difference is so large - that, even taking the confidence interval into consideration, she is very likely ahead.

This does differ from conventional wisdom. What it can mean is that many, who earlier might have preferred Bernie and still do, realize that is not happening and want the primaries to end sooner rather than later. (Not to mention, being on the verge of clinching kind of means that HRC has momentum at this point. Part of momentum is likely wanting to be with the winner.)

[Renew Deal]

10. There are too many undecideds in this poll

[DCBob]

12. There certainly are alot..

but even if Bernie got the vast majority of them Hillary still wins based on this poll.

[Iliyah]

11. Fingers crossed

[DCBob]

14. The Berners are squirming over this one.

This was supposed to be a "big"...no strike that.. "yuuuuuuge" win for them!

[KPN]

16. Don't get too excited folks. Oregon is a slam dunk for Bernie. You heard it here.

[Jitter65]

19. Even if he closes the gap and maybe even wins, the margin will not help him at all. nt

[KPN]

21. Haha. Not to worry -- he will win.

Hillary needs to win a couple more states or she is dead meat in the GE. Can she do that? Not in Oregon.

[Corporate666]

64. By 31 points???

Because anything less puts him even further behind where he needs to be.

And since he's going to lose NJ and DC, it's actually more than 31 points he needs to win by. More like 40 points.

[KPN]

73. Hope so - but being honest about it, I doubt it.

How does a win put him further behind? It can't. He gains on Hillary with a win regardless of the size. However, you are right that it has to be a big one for him to have a chance to overtake her. I'm a realist about that.

I do think though if he runs the table or close in the closing month, many superdelegates will rethink their vote. But again, being a realkist, probably not enough for him to carry the day.

But I'm sticking with my convictions and supporting Bernie all the way. I just can't vote for Hillary and won't in the GE -- I'll write Bernie in instead.

[morningfog]

18. I seriously doubt this.

[KPN]

23. Your doubt is well founded. I live in Oregon. I'm not at all

concerned about Bernie's ability to win Oregon. Of course, there could always be some major shenanigans, but they would pretty much have to be misreported vote counts or lost ballots or discounted ballots (for whatever reason).

[WhiteTara]

25. The only fair election has a Bernie win. I know.

[KPN]

27. You are putting words in my mouth.

Perceive what you will.

[WhiteTara]

32. you said

I'm not at all concerned about Bernie's ability to win Oregon. Of course, there could always be some major shenanigans, but they would pretty much have to be misreported vote counts or lost ballots or discounted ballots (for whatever reason).

Major shenanigans means someone is messing with the vote. And of course, that implies that the opponent has placed a thumb on the scale. Ergo. the only fair election is if Sanders wins.

[KPN]

47. As I said, perceive what you want.

[Tiggeroshii]

65. It would be pretty hard to rig an all mail election

[Arugula Latte]

24. Pollsters don't "get" all vote-by-mail.

It's our secret weapon -- high turnout.

[itsrobert]

26. Sorry Bernie fans, Mail in Ballots and Democrats Only

When Democrats vote, Hillary wins.

[Warren DeMontague]

36. are you another Oregon "expert" who has never actually been to the state?

[itsrobert]

45. My wife was born in Springfield, Or and she grew up in Junction City, Or

That's around Eugene, Oregon for the "Non-experts" here like me.

My first visit to Oregon was in the 1970's to visit my cousins and Grandparents. Saw Grease as a kid at the a 4 theater multiplex.

First place I saw that did not have the old pull tabs on the soda cans. They had this new push tab. Drank my first Sunkist Orange Soda there.

Currently, I have cousins, brother-in-laws, sister-in-laws, and an aunt that lives there.

I have been back in the Eugene area several times. Visited the coasts, Crater Lake, the falls (parks), and more.

Had my gas tank filled and overfilled by the attendants at at gas stations.

Also, used to watch Little People, Big World.

Shopped at Shopko and Fred Meyer.

Probably will do another trip in August for my wife's HS reunion and Scandinavian Fest.

My wife is a fan of Oregon Football, and I have them as one of my favorite teams.

[Warren DeMontague]

46. Crater Lake is a must-see, innit?

Anyway, I think you're wrong about the likely primary results, but if not I will gladly admit my error.

[Turin_C3PO]

29. That's kinda surprising to me.

I've lived in Oregon and I would've guessed the liberals there are more cut out from the Bernie mold. Guess not.

[Arugula Latte]

33. We are.

The key word there is "liberals."

[reddread]

38. scary state full of hillbillys

I wouldnt put much faith in them.
I gather this is your gist?

[Arugula Latte]

44. Well, Portland and Eugene and coastal pockets can outvote the more conservative areas.

So if we have a good "turnout"--i.e. lots of people mail in their ballots--I think Bernie will win.

Anecdotally, I perceive next to no love for Hillary in Portland. I have yet to yard see a sign for her and I've seen maybe two or three bumper stickers. But there are many Bernie signs and bumper stickers, etc.

[Renew Deal]

50. I didn't see any Hillary signs

And she won 60-40.

[Arugula Latte]

55. Yeah. Who knows.

I'm not feeling much support for her in my area, but granted it's hard to tell about other areas and what it will mean in reality.

[DCBob]

35. Yeah.. that was my reaction too.

I suspect Bernie will do better than that but this was supposed to be a big Bernie win. Looks like that's not gonna happen.

[Warren DeMontague]

37. Bookmarking.

See you next Tuesday!

[B Calm]

68. +1 me too.

[MoonRiver]

39. Those ate great numbers! Thanks for posting!

[KingFlorez]

43. I believe that Clinton will win Oregon

Ground game and a closed primary are both things that give her an advantage. Clinton has won registered or self-identified Democrats (since not every state has registration by party) in every state except for Vermont and New Hampshire, while she managed to tie in Wisconsin. Oregon is a liberal state, but there are plenty of liberal Democrats out there who support Hillary Clinton.

[Kentonio]

90. Well this is awkward..

[Beacool]

48. I'm surprised.

I wrote off OR. I still think that it'll be OR for Sanders and KY for Hillary on Tuesday. I would love to be proven wrong about OR, though.

[Demsrule86]

51. It is a closed primary

Without Trump supporters screwing with our primaries...Bernie would have lost WVA. Hoping ...fingers crossed for Oregon.

[Demsrule86]

49. Oh no

Bernie's Trump supporting 'followers' can't help him out. Poor Guy ...yeah not.

[notadmblnd]

52. Wonder what funny business will occur there?

[coffeeAM]

54. I cannot wait for the liberal blowout that is coming on Tuesday :)

[Zambero]

57. Actual Democrats tend to support Hillary

Unlike the very red states with open primaries where Bernie has done well in his campaign for the nomination, Oregon has lots and lots of actual Democrats.

[Warren DeMontague]

76. lots and lots of actual Democrats

http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2016P/1415319963.html

[Demsrule86]

58. Operation chaos

which makes it even more meaningless...GOP changing registration in order to vote for Bernie.

[Logical]

60. If I remember correctly you Suck at predictions.

[DCBob]

67. Not sure what you are referring to but this is a poll not a prediction.

[MrMickeysMom]

69. Yes, a poll reported from the circle of...

DC, Bob!

[DCBob]

70. Poll conducted by an Oregon polling firm and the article written by Oregon Public Broadcasting.

Nothing to do with DC.

[QC]

87. You remember correctly! n/t

[Liberal_in_LA]

66. ...

[Eric J in MN]

71. Ideally, there would be more than one poll of Oregon. NT

NT

[Bluenorthwest]

72. OPB is going to hear about that- Bernie Sanders has not spoken in Eugene, he spoke in Springfield

which is the town next door, not in Eugene....In 2008 both Hillary and Obama spoke in Eugene, neither in Springfield.

Pretty surprised to see OPB make that mistake, it might sound minor out of the region but it's a rather large error that betrays a lack of area specific knowledge.

[DCBob]

74. Bernie's website called it a "Rally in Eugene/Springfield"

"A Future to Believe In Rally in Eugene/Springfield, Oregon on 4/28"

https://go.berniesanders.com/page/event/detail/rally/gpgfgc

Perhaps you should complain to them first.

[Warren DeMontague]

75. Kick!

[lapfog_1]

78. LOL

[2banon]

82. ! :)

I wondered why this thing was up at the top!

[dchill]

77. DCBob, as prescient as ever!

Congrats!

[grasswire]

79. thanks for returning to this.

Eat crow, OP.

[dchill]

81. My memory is long...

When I have a bookmark.

[QC]

80. !

[AZ Progressive]

83. Proof that these polls and Hillary supporters are nothing more than propaganda mouthpieces

[joshcryer]

84. Man. The nastiness around here has reached never before seen levels.

[AZ Progressive]

85. The Hillary supporters attempts to demoralize Bernie supporters with those propaganda polls...

is laughable and pathetic! They deserve the harsh language.

[joshcryer]

86. Yeah, OK.

Stay classy.

[AZ Progressive]

88. It's classy compared to this...

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

89. Has your crow been basted with sour grapes?

[DCBob]

92. Yeah sure... Bernie won Oregon. Good for him.

But unfortunately he didn't win it big enough to make any difference.

[Logical]

93. Another failed prediction! Please dont make any about the GE!

[DCBob]

94. For all practical purposes Bernie did lose Oregon

He needed a homerun not a sacrifice fly.

Here's another prediction.. Bernie wont be the Democratic nominee.

That one's guaranteed!

[Logical]

95. Ffs, you sound silly. Nt

[silvershadow]

91. Looks like complete bullshit now, I guess. nt