New Oregon Poll (Oregon Public Broadcasting/Fox 12): Clinton 48 - Sanders 33

[brooklynite]

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

There was a stark age gap: Among those younger than 45, 64 percent supported Sanders, compared to 20 percent for Clinton. Among those 45 and older, the numbers flip: Clinton has the support from 56 percent of older voters, and Sanders had 25 percent.

Researchers tested two potential turnout scenarios, to see if the race might change if turnout is higher than expected. But even in a higher turnout race, Clinton led Sanders, this time 45 percent to 38 percent.

(TYPO - corrected to Clinton 48 - Sanders 33)

[Kip Humphrey]

1. likely Oregon voters.

[grasswire]

2. DEBUNKED

Stop posting lies.

[brooklynite]

5. Um, what?

[grasswire]

9. Math v. Media

Public Service Announcement:
New Articles Claiming Clinton Leads
in Oregon Are Lies

Greetings, my friends! This is just a quick Math Vs. Media Public Service announcement — please pay no attention to the flood of “news” that is claiming that Clinton leads in the Oregon polls. All of them are based off of the same crappy survey — a crappy survey of a mere 304 “likely voters,” 2 of which said they weren’t voting, knocking that down to 302 people.

The survey does not even state that these 302 are democrats (the only group that can vote in the Oregon democratic primaries) and, because they’re listing the surveyed people as “likely voters,” not “registered voters,” one can only assume that the company, “DHM Research,” which conducted this “survey,” either
a.) Knows that some of them aren’t registered
or
b.) Doesn’t know whether they are registered or not.

Furthermore, the survey does not reveal its methodology — I’ve searched their website and can’t even find information about whether it was a landline, cellphone, or internet survey! (In their FAQ, they state that they use internet surveys & cell-phone surveys).

At the very least, even if we assume that the 302 people are registered democratic voters and that it was’t an internet survey, we’re looking at about a 9-10% margin of error (±7% for the sample size and ±2-3% for using cell-phones), which is more than the survey says Clinton leads by. Therefore, the survey could potentially mean the opposite of what it says it means. I have called “DHM Research” repeatedly to inquire further but they have not picked up.

more: https://johnlaurits.com/2016/05/11/psa-pay-no-attention-to-articles-claiming-clinton-leads-in-oregon/
14

[Renew Deal]

6. Where?

[KansDem]

3. FOX?

Aren't they the ones who told us about palm trees in Wisconsin?

Hardly a credible news source...

[brooklynite]

8. It's a local broadcast affiliate, not Fox News

[Arugula Latte]

4. This may or may not be accurate, but we are 100 percent vote by mail here,

and traditional polling doesn't always seem to capture that dynamic. We have a higher turnout than "regular" voting states.

[NurseJackie]

7. This is what happens when people "get to know" Bernie. I'm sure his legal problems with the FEC ...

... aren't helping too much either.

[Adrahil]

10. I support Hillary and I'd be shocked if she won OR.

But I do think it will closer than the Bernie folks are hoping for. He needs to win about 66% of the delegates. He won't get that.